By Steve Goddard
We are seeing a number of interesting polar ice milestones this month. First, WUWT now has a new permanent Sea Ice Page, where you can find all of the live graphs and images in one place. Details here.
Second, it has been the slowest July (1-17) Arctic melt in the eight year JAXA record.
Ice extent has declined at less than half the rate of 2007, and total ice loss has been more than 200,000 km² less than the previous low in 2004.
DMI now shows Arctic ice extent as second highest for the date, topped only by 2005.
Closeup below.
Cryosphere Today shows that ice extent and concentration is about the same as it was 20 years ago.
The modified NSIDC map below shows in green, areas where ice is present in 2010 but was not present in 2007.
The modified NSIDC map below shows (in red) ice loss over the last week. Note that ice extent has increased slightly in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, while it has declined slightly in the East Siberian Sea.
The modified NSIDC map below shows the record low ice loss since the first of the month.
The modified NSIDC map below shows ice loss since early April.
The graph below shows PIPS ice thickness over the last five years. Average ice thickness in 2010 continues to track a little below 2006. It should bottom out in the next week or so between 2006 and 2009.
The low ice loss is consistent with the low Arctic temperatures we have seen this summer.
The North Pole webcam below shows that the meltponds are frozen over. Temperatures have been below -5°C this week. Very cold for July.
The video below shows ice movement since the start of June. Note that we are starting to see a clockwise circulation setting up again, which hints at increased ice loss over the rest of the month.
Another factor suggesting increased ice loss is the NCEP forecast, which projects warm temperatures over the East Siberian Sea and Arctic Basin for the next few days.
A third factor suggesting increased ice loss the rest of the month is that the the ice concentration has declined, due to winds exerting tensile stress on the ice. This allows more sunlight to reach the water and warm it. I expect to see the ice extent graphs showing steeper losses towards the end of the week, primarily in the East Siberian Sea.
GISS thinks it has been hot in the Arctic.
This is primarily due to the fact that they have almost no coverage there, and that they make up numbers extrapolate across vast distances with no data.
Meanwhile down south, sea ice continues at a record high level for the date.
July has been typified by record low ice loss in the north, and record high ice gain in the south. Global sea ice is above normal.
If the current trends were to continue, there is a small possibility that we will see a record maximum global sea ice extent towards the end of September. One thing is for sure – no matter what happens, the press will continue to be fed reports that the poles are “melting down” due to “record heat.”
The Cyrosphere sea ice concentration is very telling. It is much better than recent years and, along with the very quiet sun, I expect 2010 will end up better than 2009. With Antarctic sea ice at record levels, perhaps the warmers will see this as a global climate reality check? Although perhaps not, as it is clear evidence against their belief.
Joe Lalonde
The Arctic Oscillation has been positive recently, which tends to keep cold air bottled up in the Arctic
Methinks R Bates must be on holiday. Perhaps he has gone away with ANU to the frozen north.
Ammonite
Phil is confusing area with extent.
David Gould,
It is normal to have cracks and holes in the ice. This is caused by tensile stresses.
Phil,
What part of this map comparison is it that you are having difficulty understanding?
http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=07&fd=15&fy=1990&sm=07&sd=15&sy=2010
Coldest temperatures in a decade in Argentina.
(CNN) — A weeklong cold snap that has killed at least eight people in Argentina is expected to continue Monday, state media reported.
Argentina’s National Weather Service says the blustery weather will continue in the nation’s capital of Buenos Aires, with heavy winds, intense rains and frigid temperatures expected, state-run news agency Telam reported.
Temperatures dipped below zero degrees Celsius (32 degrees Fahrenheit) in 10 of the country’s provinces Sunday, according to Telam.
The news agency reported that at least eight people have died during the cold snap in the past several days. It has also caused flight cancellations and delays at the Buenos Aires airport.
Half the country is covered in snow and the capital recorded its lowest temperatures in a decade on Friday, Telam reported.
Mercury fell to -1.5 degrees Celsius (29 degrees Fahrenheit) in the capital, close to the coldest temperature ever recorded there.
The cold snap is causing record demands on gas and electricity, the Planning Ministry said. It has put restrictions on business and industry use of gas to ensure homes have enough, the agency reported.
http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/americas/07/19/argentina.cold.snap/index.html?eref=rss_topstories&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_topstories+%28RSS%3A+Top+Stories%29
Nice post Steve. Very informative. But you once again have not included MISOP …MIOMED, …or is it MYOPIC, or whatever the hell it’s called, which clearly models no ice in the Arctic.
There. Just thought I could save R Gates some time.
Steve G said:
Cryosphere Today shows that ice extent and concentration is about the same as it was 20 years ago.
Amino Acids in Meteorites says:
July 18, 2010 at 11:06 pm
Phil
“Steve if you’re going to make stuff up at least make it plausible!”
(According to CT on this date in 1990 the area was: 6.8058658 Mm^2
whereas now it is: 5.5386882 Mm^2 note this was omitted by AAM)
You continually want the reader to infer that Steven Goddard is deceiving people. Today is not the first time you imply it.
I’m ‘implying’ nothing, when Steve makes an incorrect statement like the above I point it out.
If you wish to draw an inference from that that Steve is being deceptive that’s your call, you could equally infer that he doesn’t know what he’s talking about.
I think that you and others were saying that a slow melt in July was indicated at just the time when ice extent was the lowest on record about 6 weeks ago.
Seems that those who are more open-minded seem to be getting closer to the mark in making forward predictions?
Phil
you want to mislead people. You have challenged Steven G in the past and you have been wrong as you are now.
The pools at the north pole are freezing:
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/npole/2010/images/noaa2-2010-0719-071708.jpg
Now how do we count the area, as first year mm ice?
What is the probability of its melting again if the sun comes out? I discount air since it has such small heat capacity and is below 2C anyway.
I went to the year 2006 where it seems the JAXA is heading. Pools started freezing August 4. Seem clear before then. If you go to http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/npole/index.php and select two months of images you can see the gradual freeze over of the open water:
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/npole/2006/images/noaa3-2006-0804-2215.jpg
unfortunately it is camera 3. 1 and 2 do not exist then, but the optics are similar.
Go to
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/npole/2006/images/noaa3-2006-0804-2215.jpg
Pools gone by middle of August.
Geeee! Never knew it was this bad! I’m soory everyone, but I can’t deny the obvious anymore, it’s all right there in B&W and Liv’in Color! We’re doomed! Fat Albert, I’m sorry, “He Who Must Be Believed” was right, I mean left all along. It IS too late!
PS: I now suspect that the IPCC, the Club of Rome, and all the other secret elite organizations, associations and clubs, have known every hateful detail of the AGW Climate Change Report for many years and were only trying to prevent mass chaos and rioting. No doubt the Neatherlands and Florida will soon disappear. Panama will sink beneath the waves and the Pacific and Atlantic will be as one. The Gobi will expand and swallow China. India will be racked, or is it wracked, by earthquakes. Everything east of the Andes will be swamped and under 200m of salty, polluted ocean water. Indonesia and the Islands of the Pacific will disappear. Australia will be divided into two desert islands. New Zealand will look like Hawaii. And Hawaii will all but disappear. California, Lousiana, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, South Dakota and Iowa will all disappear. Russia will be a tropical paradise but only open to ‘select’ immigration. And all this will happen in the next 30 years. Wooooo is me! Wooooooooooooooooo is me!
I feel here are lots of expert climate scientists. Does anybody know what causes the deceleration of artic ice loss? Any information appreciated.
Steve,
Nice analysis…but laste July melt might really just getting ready to step it up a notch. It also always bothers me that you would use a web cam picture from the N. Pole that stopped transmitting back on July 7, (cam #1 ceased transmission on that date), when cam #2 shows quite clearly, that the melt ponds are doing quite fine, thank you very much:
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/latest/noaa2.jpg
And we see plenty of anomalously high SST’s in the Arctic region right now:
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/color_anomaly_NPS_ophi0.png
Nothing so far has changed my forecast of 4.5 million sq. km. extent for this year’s melt seaon low, with a new record low of 2.5 million likely to be reached before 2015. Specifically, I see the melt rate picking up here in late July/early August, as the ice that has spread out (causing the extent rate to slow down) begins to melt. If we’d seen a big cold spell hit the Arctic over the past month, I might have a different opinion, but the slow down in extent is not that a cold spell hit and the melt suddenly stopped, but more due to winds and currents spreading it out (hence, slowing down the shrinkage of the extent loss). The above referred SST graph of the Arctic shows quite clearly that the region is experiencing anomalous warmth, and not anomalous cold.
Nice short term forecasting but you’re still not giving us any insights into what’s going on long term which I think is more important. I think you might even admit what you’re really describing here is weather not climate.
I think the first graph is a little misleading. Willis will give you a slap on the wrist for not starting the axis at 0 and giving us the full perspective, 2010 might look a little less dramatic.
Having said all that I think the AGW CO2 explanation for everything to do with climate is missing some major factors. I just wish I knew what they were.
Rhys Jaggar
Exactly. People making predictions benefit from being correct – so I can’t understand the motivations of people who make obviously incorrect forecasts. One way or another, it is an indication of a defective thought process.
Amino Acids in Meteorites says:
July 19, 2010 at 7:52 am
Phil
you want to mislead people. You have challenged Steven G in the past and you have been wrong as you are now.
Really on what planet does a drop from 6.8058658 Mm^2 to 5.5386882 Mm^2 represent “Cryosphere Today shows that ice extent and concentration is about the same as it was 20 years ago.“, that’s a drop of 21%?
You’re right I’ve challenged Steve in the past, and guess what he was wrong about CO2 freezing at the South Pole and phase diagrams and I was right, he misread the situation at Barrow this month and I got it right, to just give two examples!
R. Gates
The melt pond you linked to is frozen over. Look closer.
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/latest/noaa2.jpg
A few more arctic ice notes–
http://solarcycle24com.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=globalwarming&action=display&thread=1179&page=65
http://solarcycle24com.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=globalwarming&thread=1179&page=64#50889
.
Phil,
I challenge you to find anything incorrect that I wrote in the CO2 freezing article. Be specific.
Phil,
As far as Barrow goes, you were the one who was incorrect. The ice didn’t break away until July 5. Your were claiming it was gone a week earlier.
stevengoddard says:
July 19, 2010 at 9:43 am
Phil,
I challenge you to find anything incorrect that I wrote in the CO2 freezing article. Be specific.
You were wrong about how to read a phase diagram and persisted in asserting that the pressure axis was total pressure rather than the partial pressure of the compound concerned. This lead you to assert that solid CO2 would be deposited at the S Pole which it can’t in our atmosphere.
“Tenuc says:
July 19, 2010 at 5:45 am
The Cyrosphere sea ice concentration is very telling. It is much better than recent years and, along with the very quiet sun, I expect 2010 will end up better than 2009. With Antarctic sea ice at record levels, perhaps the warmers will see this as a global climate reality check? Although perhaps not, as it is clear evidence against their belief.”
Don’t believe it. As with religion they will not change their beliefs. Just read R Gates’ comments above: “Nothing so far has changed my forecast of 4.5 million sq. km. extent for this year’s melt seaon low, with a new record low of 2.5 million likely to be reached before 2015.” At least he is not forecasting an ice free Acrtic at that time. That will probably now follow in 2035 or thereabouts. I am still to see a comment from R Gates on the sea ice extent in Antarctica and the Global sea ice extent. Maybe I have missed these.
stevengoddard says:
July 19, 2010 at 9:45 am
Phil,
As far as Barrow goes, you were the one who was incorrect. The ice didn’t break away until July 5. Your were claiming it was gone a week earlier.
Very selective memory, I told you where the measurement was made which you had mislocated, I told you, contrary to your assertion that there was no change in the fast ice off Barrow, that at the time you made that post the fast ice off Barrow was breaking up and that your estimate of new record late break-up at the official site was likely an overestimate. I pointed out that indications at Barrow on the 4th were that the fast ice to the north was starting to break-up, you continued to deny the possibility which was later confirmed on the Barrow website.
Go back and read those posts again, you’re wrong (again).
Note that the Barrow site now says: “The ice is gone. Ice broke out at NARL on 4 July 2010. There was little evidence of stabilizing pressure ridges, which is unusual compared to previous decades but similar to 2003, 2004, and 2007. This forecast does not apply to these ice conditions. For reference, the forecasted date of break-up was 5 July 2010.”
Also: “8 July, 2010: break-out of remaining ice South of Point Barrow
With the exception of essentially one pressure ridge, landfast ice that remained between NARL and Point Barrow broke out in the early morning hours of July 8, during strong winds from SW. Evidence of this event is recorded in the coastal RADAR and visual satellite imagery. The last pressure ridge dislodged by noon on July 9.”