By Steve Goddard
We are seeing a number of interesting polar ice milestones this month. First, WUWT now has a new permanent Sea Ice Page, where you can find all of the live graphs and images in one place. Details here.
Second, it has been the slowest July (1-17) Arctic melt in the eight year JAXA record.
Ice extent has declined at less than half the rate of 2007, and total ice loss has been more than 200,000 km² less than the previous low in 2004.
DMI now shows Arctic ice extent as second highest for the date, topped only by 2005.
Closeup below.
Cryosphere Today shows that ice extent and concentration is about the same as it was 20 years ago.
The modified NSIDC map below shows in green, areas where ice is present in 2010 but was not present in 2007.
The modified NSIDC map below shows (in red) ice loss over the last week. Note that ice extent has increased slightly in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, while it has declined slightly in the East Siberian Sea.
The modified NSIDC map below shows the record low ice loss since the first of the month.
The modified NSIDC map below shows ice loss since early April.
The graph below shows PIPS ice thickness over the last five years. Average ice thickness in 2010 continues to track a little below 2006. It should bottom out in the next week or so between 2006 and 2009.
The low ice loss is consistent with the low Arctic temperatures we have seen this summer.
The North Pole webcam below shows that the meltponds are frozen over. Temperatures have been below -5°C this week. Very cold for July.
The video below shows ice movement since the start of June. Note that we are starting to see a clockwise circulation setting up again, which hints at increased ice loss over the rest of the month.
Another factor suggesting increased ice loss is the NCEP forecast, which projects warm temperatures over the East Siberian Sea and Arctic Basin for the next few days.
A third factor suggesting increased ice loss the rest of the month is that the the ice concentration has declined, due to winds exerting tensile stress on the ice. This allows more sunlight to reach the water and warm it. I expect to see the ice extent graphs showing steeper losses towards the end of the week, primarily in the East Siberian Sea.
GISS thinks it has been hot in the Arctic.
This is primarily due to the fact that they have almost no coverage there, and that they make up numbers extrapolate across vast distances with no data.
Meanwhile down south, sea ice continues at a record high level for the date.
July has been typified by record low ice loss in the north, and record high ice gain in the south. Global sea ice is above normal.
If the current trends were to continue, there is a small possibility that we will see a record maximum global sea ice extent towards the end of September. One thing is for sure – no matter what happens, the press will continue to be fed reports that the poles are “melting down” due to “record heat.”
I wouldn’t mind if it melted if it would send a little cool air down here.
Peter Ellis,
Temperatures have been very cold at POPS-13 as mentioned in the same paragraph.
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/POPS13_atmos_recent.html
Below -5C in the last 24 hours. Chances are that the former melt ponds are frozen solid.
Bruce Cobb
Most of the world’s sea ice is in Antarctica, so the maximum occurs in September.
If you look at Topaz, however, or the Cryosphere Anomaly chart they show the lead of 2007 over 2010 as less than half the others.
– – the difference is that area North of Alaska that has filled up with “brash” — like Ice cubes — Topaz sees it as Open Water ! Apparently, so does Cryosphere’s Anomaly measure..
Topaz at: http://topaz.nersc.no/topazVisual/matlab_static_image.php?action=NA_ARC_NWA_Function&file_prefix=ARC&match_date=20100717&depth=0005&variable_name=hice
Cryosphere ANOMALY graph: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/sea.ice.anomaly.timeseries.jpg
– – one must download the pic & then paste pieces of 2007 near 2010 … well, I need to. A good Photo program can superimpose.- – And Steve: why gild the lilly ? JAXA data has 2010 July 1-17 at 849,532 … Which is ‘way below every other Month, but you have to put the bar BELOW 800,000.
Why ?
That’s why everyone distrusts ALL your homemade Charts, Steve.
And most of them I’ve found where your sources are & they are Real..
And most of this Post – – is right on the Nail !
I’ve remarked on what GISS Global has to use (their surface temps for the USA are superb — but then they allow Outsiders like Steven MacIntyre to have their Comments evaluated & incorporated if Correct.) but there are SO few sites in the Arctic – – that Graphic is wonderful
JAXA Data: at http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot.csv
Comparing _______2007___ to___ 2010
Ahead June 28______ no________ 679,531 Square Kilometers
Ahead July 17____ 458,437________ no
Daily Ice Loss:
July16-17 ______ – 93,906 ____ – 67,969 = _____ still ahead of ’06 by 56,719
July17-18 ______ – 71,406 ____ – ??
July18-19 ______ – 63,907 ___
Where are the ‘rotted ice’-ers who were feeling victory in June? None of them are in this thread.
Bueller?…Bueller?…Bueller?
No, there is a major minimum in global sea ice in February/March and a minor, less pronounced minimum in September. The maximum is in November. This is caused by the unevenness of how much of each latitude band in both NH and SH is covered by land and therefore cannot have sea ice.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg
Big thanks to Steve Goddard and Anthony, the new clicky save heaps of time 🙂
Steve, a bit cheeky this, but are you going to revise your prediction up?
It’s looking highly likely the ice extent is going to be higher than you thought!
Overall sea ice is showing strongly positive v anomaly, (cherry picked anomaly at that), looking forward to September for the ice and then November for our American cousin’s mid terms. We are living in interesting times.
Yet another “Travesty”.
Still reckon minimum 2010 NH ice will be within 1SD normal or spot on normal due to increased ice concentration.
Technically OT, but has NCDC been monkeying with U.S. temp data? WUWT?
http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/get-file.php?report=national&image=timeseries02&byear=2010&bmonth=01&year=2010&month=01&ext=gif&id=110-00
http://stats.wordpress.com/g.gif?host=wattsupwiththat.com&rand=0.22925564870654913&blog=1799261&v=wpcom&user_id=0&post=22170&subd=wattsupwiththat&ref=http%3A//wattsupwiththat.com/
REPLY: What is this for? – Anthony
Sorry a bit off topic, but this deserves to be recorded:
Remember this article? (“Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past”). I occasionally revisit the article for a chuckle. It is only today however I note that the Independent has completely removed all of the comments attached to it, many of which were naturally pointing out the complete BS being promoted by the author in light of recent events.
Yet another one of those simple acts of censorship that help to redirect the agenda.
“The second webcam shows open, unfrozen melt ponds as of July 18th, 7:20 am ”
The NOAA2 cam images are interesting in that they show the ponds sometimes skimming over with ice. There was a rain event a day or two ago there and now the cam lens is covered with ice. So those ponds aren’t only melt, they are also accumulated rain/mist/other precip.
The latest DMI temperature graphs really have the temperatures low for this time of year and the current average looks like it is less than 0.5C. Precipitation (snow) melts at 0C but sea ice melts at a lower temperature depending on salt content. The older the ice, the higher the melting temperature as older ice has more of the salt worked out of it. The newest ice will melt at around -3C or so.
Going back through the DMI archives, I can spot no other year with temperatures this low at this date. Now to be sure, temperatures are fickle and subject (like most anything else) to wind behavior so things could change any day.
> Second, it has been the slowest July Arctic
> melt in the eight year JAXA record.
Actually, they have partial data for 2002, including July 1-to-28. The July 1 value was 10,043,906 and July 17 was 8,756,250 for a loss of 1,287,656 km^2. So 2010 is the smallest loss in 9 years. It’s worse than you thought.
” Dave F says:
July 18, 2010 at 5:05 pm
http://stats.wordpress.com/g.gif …
REPLY: What is this for? – Anthony”
The wordpress smiley:
http://jrharshath.wordpress.com/2008/07/29/the-wordpress-smiley-named-g/
The ice near the surface is freshwater and melts at 0C
I don’t see any reason to revise my 5.5 estimate. I expect melt to pick up later in the month.
Phil?…Phil?…Phil?…
anthony –
Dateline used to have credibility!
18 July: SBS Dateline: Ginny Stein: Weather Wars
SBS: According to the largest survey of US weather forecasters, only half of the men and women paid to predict the weather believe global warming is happening. At George Mason University in Virginia, Ed Maibach is the director of the Climate Centre which conducted the survey…
ED MAIBACH: The fact that the quarter who don’t believe are almost entirely people with a conservative political ideology tells me that this has something to do with the fact that we have allowed this to become a political issue as opposed to a scientific issue…
PROFESSOR KERRY EMANUEL, CLIMATE SCIENTIST: Why would anybody ask weather forecasters about their opinion on climate? I think it is because there is a hope that I don’t think is justified that ordinary people will confuse weather forecasters with climate scientists.
SBS: Professor Kerry Emanuel is disparaging about what he perceives to be a lack of knowledge amongst many meteorologists.
PROFESSOR KERRY EMANUEL: Weather forecasters are in a unique position. I mean if they actually did study the problem, if they actually took the time to really understand it rather than just go to the blogosphere to get their favourite views and rebroadcast them, then I think they could do a lot of good in the world and I think there are some who are doing that to be fair…
http://www.sbs.com.au/dateline/story/transcript/id/600617/n/Weather-Wars
30 June: Nature: Jeff Tollefson: Climate science: An erosion of trust?
Researchers at George Mason University have teamed up with Climate Central on a project to see whether meteorologists on television can change the way people think about climate issues by making global warming into a local phenomenon. Beginning this summer on the television network WLTX in Columbia, South Carolina, weather forecaster Jim Gandy will integrate global warming into his coverage. Topics might include projections for increasing weather extremes over the next century, and how local gardeners are adapting to climate change. The George Mason team will use surveys at the start and end of the project to see whether it has any effect on public opinion.
http://www.nature.com/news/2010/100630/full/466024a.html
this is quick, Jim Gandy!
30 June: MinnPost: Inside Science News Service: Emilie Lorditch: What weathermen know about climate change
“In television, when it comes to weather, there is an extremely wide range of education sets,” said Jim Gandy, chief meteorologist at WLTX-TV in Columbia, S.C. “Some have bachelor’s degrees, master’s degrees, and Ph.D.’s, but you also have some without.”…
“People are uninformed and believe climate change is a hoax,” said Gandy. “I occasionally respond to comments posted on our station’s website, but you better know your science and get your facts straight before you post on my website.”…
Beginning in July, the next phase of the National Science Foundation-funded study will begin. A test case at Gandy’s station will include 30-second segments in some of the weathercasts to educate viewers about climate change.
“It will be a year-long effort using our resources on-air and on the Internet in an effort to educate the public about climate change past, present, and future,” said Gandy. “I wish the public knew how difficult it is to have knowledge of climate science. Simply being a meteorologist is not enough, and this is a mistake that some television meteorologists make.”
http://www.minnpost.com/scientificagenda/2010/06/30/19270/what_weathermen_know_about_climate_change
We’re broiling in the DC area. One of the TV weathermen said that the jet stream was staying north. Could this be why the N pole is staying colder than normal?
It is getting cold: Antarctic cold snap kills nine in Argentina
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-10679088
Amino Acids in Meteorites,
I’m still here. 🙂 At present, the ice is certainly not behaving as I expected it to. Well done to Steven Goddard. 🙂 However, I am still not convinced that the ice is in a high volume state – the images on modis appear to show lots of broken (and perhaps rotten ;)) ice, even around the area of the pole. So I am still anxiously waiting on September.
Excellent post.
Point by point, as usual, you shred the “opposition.”
Nothing like being able to demonstrate first-hand, with example after example, graph after graph, truth after truth.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
“We’re broiling in the DC area. ”
It is just a strong Bermuda High. It is also the reason there have been no hurricanes on the Eastern Seaboard. Weather, not climate. The temperatures in the center of the country are below normal. Mexico is WAY below normal. In fact, nearly the entire equatorial region of the planet is below normal.
As of 2011 will they start to use a 1989-2010 average, following on from the current 1979-2000 average?
Or will they instead chose a 6,000 BCE – 2010 CE average to maintain the downward trend?
I can’t find any DMI temps dipping quite this early, but 1972 and 2001 had similar dips shortly after this time of year.
While it is far too early to start crowing, I must admit I’ve begun rummaging in my giant drawer of smiles for the chesire cat one. . .. y’know, just so I know where it is should I want it in September.