By Steve Goddard
We are seeing a number of interesting polar ice milestones this month. First, WUWT now has a new permanent Sea Ice Page, where you can find all of the live graphs and images in one place. Details here.
Second, it has been the slowest July (1-17) Arctic melt in the eight year JAXA record.
Ice extent has declined at less than half the rate of 2007, and total ice loss has been more than 200,000 km² less than the previous low in 2004.
DMI now shows Arctic ice extent as second highest for the date, topped only by 2005.
Closeup below.
Cryosphere Today shows that ice extent and concentration is about the same as it was 20 years ago.
The modified NSIDC map below shows in green, areas where ice is present in 2010 but was not present in 2007.
The modified NSIDC map below shows (in red) ice loss over the last week. Note that ice extent has increased slightly in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, while it has declined slightly in the East Siberian Sea.
The modified NSIDC map below shows the record low ice loss since the first of the month.
The modified NSIDC map below shows ice loss since early April.
The graph below shows PIPS ice thickness over the last five years. Average ice thickness in 2010 continues to track a little below 2006. It should bottom out in the next week or so between 2006 and 2009.
The low ice loss is consistent with the low Arctic temperatures we have seen this summer.
The North Pole webcam below shows that the meltponds are frozen over. Temperatures have been below -5°C this week. Very cold for July.
The video below shows ice movement since the start of June. Note that we are starting to see a clockwise circulation setting up again, which hints at increased ice loss over the rest of the month.
Another factor suggesting increased ice loss is the NCEP forecast, which projects warm temperatures over the East Siberian Sea and Arctic Basin for the next few days.
A third factor suggesting increased ice loss the rest of the month is that the the ice concentration has declined, due to winds exerting tensile stress on the ice. This allows more sunlight to reach the water and warm it. I expect to see the ice extent graphs showing steeper losses towards the end of the week, primarily in the East Siberian Sea.
GISS thinks it has been hot in the Arctic.
This is primarily due to the fact that they have almost no coverage there, and that they make up numbers extrapolate across vast distances with no data.
Meanwhile down south, sea ice continues at a record high level for the date.
July has been typified by record low ice loss in the north, and record high ice gain in the south. Global sea ice is above normal.
If the current trends were to continue, there is a small possibility that we will see a record maximum global sea ice extent towards the end of September. One thing is for sure – no matter what happens, the press will continue to be fed reports that the poles are “melting down” due to “record heat.”
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Brendan H says: [ “…” ]
Skeptics are not advocates of anything. The job of advocacy is for the purveyors of the globaloney hypothesis.
Smokey says:
July 20, 2010 at 5:34 pm
Julienne says at 2:24 pm [ … ]
And your prediction is …?
C’mon, Julienne, step up to the plate!☺
Smokey, I’m not in the business of making predictions, even though I participate in the SEARCH outlook. I’m more interested in understanding the factors responsible for changes in the ice cover since I understand the importance of atmospheric circulation in forming the summer ice cover, and no one can predict the weather.
Smokey…however I think there is a strong possibility that the Northwest passage will be open once again this year, as well as the northern sea route, especially if the pressure pattern changes. Right now ice divergence under the central Arctic low pressure has been spreading the ice out, causing the ice extent decline to slow down. This is an early repeat of last year. But if that changes and the DA sets up again, then I do believe 2010 has a good chance of becoming a new record low. It will all depend on the weather over the next few weeks…
Julienne,
[Beautiful name, BTW], that’s not really a prediction. Too many caveats.
Smokey says: July 21, 2010 at 7:39 pm
“Julienne,
[Beautiful name, BTW], that’s not really a prediction. Too many caveats.”
I agree about her name, but differ in that I respect her for not making a specific prediction when she does not think she has sufficient facts to do so. If the IPCC had taken the same approach humanity might not be in the mess we’re in.
Brendan H says:
Just by way of interest, what would constitute “testable, empirical evidence” for CO2-induced global warming?
===========================================
Perhaps that question should be diverted back to you, since the burden of proof is upon your side…to show it forth.
Skeptics don’t have to do a damn thing.
It is business as usual, another day in the natural variability of the Earth.
What’s your excuse?
Or better yet, where’s your proof?
Let’s see it. Show the empirical, testable evidence of the link between CO2 and the so-called CAGW.
Not models. Not conjectures.
As Smokey is correct to demand: Evidence.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Tim Clark: “By your omission, you are admitting that CO2 has been higher in the past, regardless of source, which agrees with the science. Plants and animals survived. Man is still here. WUWT?”
I’m not sure which “omission” you are referring to, but human beings are dependent on climate for their well-being. In a world of 6bn people, the margins for error from large-scale climate change are much less than when there were fewer human beings.
For the past 10,000 years, the perod of the rise in complex societies, average global temperatures have varied by perhaps no more than 2 deg C. Even so, changes in climate during that time have no doubt caused much hardship and even been implicated in societal collapse.
So while there’s uncertainty about the future impact and extent of climate change, the issue isn’t so much survival as harm, particularly the risk to those who live in areas that are more vulnerable to the effects of a changing climate.
Smokey: “Skeptics are not advocates of anything.”
True, Smokey, but my questions weren’t addressed to a sceptic. They were addressed to you.
July 19, 2010 at 5:12 pm – noiv says:
“The extent includes now a lot of open water:”
J
@DirkH
Here some square miles for your kitten.
http://ice-map.appspot.com/?map=Arc&sat=ter&lvl=8&lat=86&lon=37&yir=2010&day=202
I see you are practicing censure when someone post something inconveniant to your reality and ratings. Mmmm.. not bad
[how would you know? you can’t even spell inconvenient 😉 read the policy page then look at all the dissenting opinions above ~mod]
Brendan H says:
“For the past 10,000 years, the perod [sic] of the rise in complex societies, average global temperatures have varied by perhaps no more than 2 deg C.”
Global temps have varied by no more than 2°C ??
Since you are flat wrong about that, it calls into question your basic [mis]understanding of the science involved.
But thanx for playing, you provide risible entertainment. Clowns do the same service to the public.
Steve, you might be interested in today’s image of the Northwest Passage: http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r04c02.2010204.terra.1km.jpg
It is certainly more open at this time of year than it was in 2007, 2008 and 2009 (all three years that saw an opening of the NWP–though in 2008 the Parry Channel was not open, only Admundsen’s Route).
“If the current trends were to continue, there is a small possibility that we will see a record maximum global sea ice extent towards the end of September”
Just got back off a nice 2 week holiday so a bit late to post this
NO CHANCE.
I’ve been arguing with Just the Facts since spring about southern ice extent and said all along that the Antarctic would hit the buffers, it now has. Meanwhile the Arctic will stay low.
Andy
10 days later from Steve’s comment that the melt ponds are freezing up we have this
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/npole/2010/images/noaa2-2010-0726-185407.jpg
It’s July, nothing is freezing up … things get filled with snow or slush….
Sigh