By Steve Goddard
This summer we have had confirmation that Arctic ice behaviour has everything to do with wind. During June, winds were circulating clockwise in an inwards spiral, which caused ice extent to diminish and ice concentration to remain high. Around July 1, the patterns reversed and we have seen counterclockwise winds pushing ice away from the pole. As a result, ice area/extent has scarcely changed and instead we see a gradual decline in average ice thickness. The video below shows June/July ice movement and thickness.
The graph below shows changes in ice thickness during summer over the last five years. Based on past behaviour, we can expect the average ice thickness to flatten sometime in the next two weeks. It should bottom out somewhere between 2006 and 2009. NSIDC has warned me that PIPS is not an accurate measure of ice thickness, though I would have to say it has done remarkably well as a predictor of this summer’s behavior. As you can see below, 2010 is following a track similar to 2006.
As you can see below, we have reached the midpoint of the melt season in the high Arctic, and temperatures have been slightly below normal there for most of the last 55 days. There are only about 40 days left above freezing in the high Arctic.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
NCEP is forecasting below normal temperatures in most of the Arctic for the next two weeks.
The sea ice graphs have nearly flatlined since the beginning of the month. DMI’s graph is particularly interesting, since it only measures higher concentration ice, which is less likely to melt through.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php
Below is a closeup image showing that 2010 extent is now running close to 2006.
The concentration and extent appears quite similar to 20 years ago.
It has been cloudy in the Arctic and you can clearly see the counterclockwise circulation in the satellite IR image below. Clouds are white, ice is red.
The webcams continue to show a little ice on the surface of the meltponds, indicating ongoing below freezing temperatures at the North Pole.
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/webphotos/noaa2.jpg
We are at peak melt season, and there just isn’t much happening in the Arctic. The Arctic Oscillation has turned slightly positive in July, which tends to keep cold air contained in the Arctic and out of lower latitudes.
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif
The modified NSIDC map below shows ice loss (red) and ice gain (green) over the last week. There has been slightly more loss than gain.
The modified NSIDC image below shows ice loss since early April.
The modified NSIDC image below shows the difference between 2010 (green) and 2007 (red.) There is clearly more ice now than in 2007, and this is also shown in the NSIDC extent graph.
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_timeseries.png
Ice has flatlined in the North, while it goes through the roof in the south.
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_timeseries.png
In other words, the widely claimed polar meltdown continues to be nothing more than bad fiction.
Thanks, Steve and Tonyb, for such good reading material on a Sunday afternoon in Chicago!
Now, all I need is my daily fix of Leif….maybe we can start talking about solar physics & the effect on polar ice? I’m sure he’d sniff that out! Later!
Lance, u.k.(us), tonyb, latitude, CRS, Dr.P.H., and everyone else (well, just about everyone else 😉 )
You might like these 2 videos:
“Fred Golgberg, PhD, PART 1, Arctic ice, past, present, future”
“Fred Goldberg, PhD, PART 2, Arctic ice, past, present, future”
donald penman says:
July 11, 2010 at 2:22 pm
I think that the arctic ice might be increasing on tonights satelite image,hope this continues up to september and your predictions are confirmed
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VILLABOLO:
Which should have precedence, predictions or reality. In Science, one may make as many predictions as desired, but what actually is going to happen should be respected more than the predictions themselves.
Otherwise it becomes obvious, as in this statement by donald, that there is an emotional desire, divorced from objectivity, that is the driving force behind these predictions.
Anthony many , many thanks for the excellent presentation of the facts , but our warmist friends will be good for a couple of unpleasant surprises , experiencing their new excuses for what went wrong with them . Have you ever thought how the russians could be blamed for all the extra ice that the arctic will start showing in a couple of weeks ? Is there maybe a change in the formation of new ice that the katlin expeditions have overseen ? What is the impact of the shrinking icebear population and the growing seal-population on the ice coverage ? Is the movement towards a neutral ph in sea-surface water leading to a more rapid ice -growth ? You may notice that any fool can come up with more questions than there are answers and some fools are capable to wiggle billions out of our society to write answers on these questions and to come up with more questions requiring even more billions to find answers even when reality does not behave like their models designed as perpeetum mobiles for money-laundering . At least the mob is honest about their objectives and the law is an opportunity to make money . Well is not it the case for AGW – supporters ? Is cap and trade based upon an implementation of new laws not working exactly the same way ? Who shall have the guts to put a charge against this club of approximately 50 fanatics for racketeering in grand style ? Anthony please keep at least the eyes of our children open for the facts and hopefully they will not be as stupid as a large chunk of our society .
stevengoddard says:
July 11, 2010 at 3:18 pm
Yup, I am afraid that UK adjudicators, in all forms, appear to have lost the plot. Sadly (to put it mildly) appeasement has become the order of the day.
Well done Spain!
And may I say Mr Goddard that your team is shaping up, defence organised and sound, midfield creative and combative, just have to wait awhile for the forwards to stand up and be counted!
Regards and many thanks for the infotainment.
Summer temperatures in Barrow have been running well below normal
yet, the sea ice was gone earlier than you predicted. as i have been telling you for a long time now, it is not just the summer temperature that decides the melt. (and not just wind either!)
still no correction to your Barrow errors…
It stinks that the world cup ended without 22 players on the pitch.
i am slowly starting to understand your approach to things, Steven. you are in constant disagreement with everybody else, especially with facts and experts.
anyone who saw the breast kick by Nigel de Jong at Xabi Alonso must be surprised that there were 22 players on the field that long.
the referee was not perfect, but it was perfectly clear that he did everything in his power to NOT decide the game by a decision.
So it seems that the total energy of the planet remains unchanged. North sea ice a bit low, south sea ice at a record, record colds in winter and non-heatwaves in summer in NH , cold waves in SH winter and no hot spots recorded during last SH summer. So, I would say that globally its getting a bit cooler, no matter what the politicians, journalists and money-making scientists say.
Typo: meant to say: non-record braking heatwaves in summer in NH,…
apologies
Amino Acids in Meteorites says:
July 11, 2010 at 3:29 pm “”
saved it for later 😉
thanks
R Gates: it wasn’t snowing in Florida. It was snowing all over the northern hemisphere. This winter we had the largest land snow cover ever between Nov and March. This winter, the sea ice cover at the SP is at an ALL TIME RECORD. Open your eyes and see the light, I mean the snow.
Charles Wilson says:
July 11, 2010 at 11:06 am
And what of Pips 2.0 ?? Pips shows a huge area, thinning RAPIDLY North of Russia’s Northmost Land & up to 87 degrees North….
__________________________________________________________________
I wonder if that has anything to do with the Russian volcanoes heating up??? (soot & ash any one?) They were quiet the last time I checked a few weeks ago.
” KLYUCHEVSKOY VOLCANO: 56°03’N, 160°39’E; Elevation 4,750 m
AVIATION COLOR CODE IS ORANGE
Explosive-effusive eruption of the volcano continues. Ash explosions >7.0 km (>23,000 ft)
Seismicity of the volcano was above background levels all week. According to visual data, moderate gas-steam activity of the volcano were observing on Jule 2-4. Sometimes ash columns rose up to 5.3 km (17,400 ft) ASL. Clouds obscured the volcano in the other days.
According to satellite data, a big thermal anomaly was registering over the volcano all week. July A gas-steam plume containing ash extended about 76 km to the south from the volcano on July 02.
SHEVELUCH VOLCANO: 56°39’N, 161°21’E; Elevation 3,283 m, the dome elevation ~2,500 m
AVIATION COLOR CODE IS ORANGE
Explosive-extrusive eruption of the volcano continues. Ash explosions >10 km (>32,800 ft) ASL could occur at any time. The activity of the volcano could affect international and low-flying aircraft.
Seismicity was above background levels all week. According to seismic data, possibly ash plumes rose up to 7 km (22,900 ft) ASL on Jule 2-6. According to visual data, ash fall was observed on removal 30 km at volcano on July 05. Ash plumes from hot avalanches rose up to 4 km (13,100 ft) ASL on Jule 5, and strong fumarolic activity were observed in the other. According to satellite data, a thermal anomaly was registering over the lava dome all week. Ash plume extended about 20 km (65,600 ft) to the south from the Volcano on July 07.
KARYMSKY VOLCANO: 54°03’N, 159°27’E; Elevation 1,486 m
AVIATION COLOR CODE IS ORANGE
Explosive activity of the volcano continues. Ash explosions > 6.0 km (or 19,700 ft) ASL could occur at any time. Activity of the volcano could affect low-flying aircraft.
Seismic activity of the volcano was above background levels all week. According to seismic data, possibly ash plumes rose up to 2 km (6,500 ft)ASL on Jule 05. According to satellite data, a thermal anomaly was registering over the volcano five days. Clouds obscured the volcano in the other days of week. Ash plume extended about 20 km (65,600 ft)to the south from the volcano on July 07.
GORELY VOLCANO: 52°33’N, 158°02’E; Elevation 1,828 m
AVIATION COLOR CODE IS YELLOW
Activity of the volcano is increasing. Probably an eruption of Gorely is preparing. Aerosol plumes from the volcano could affect low-flying aircraft.
Seismicity of the volcano was above background levels all week. Amplitude of volcanic tremor remains on levels 1.7-1.8 mkm/s and at increasing up to 2 mkm/s on Jule 6. Gas-steam activity of the volcano was observing on Jule 04. According to satellite data, the thermal anomaly over the volcano was registering on Jule 3. A gas-steam plume extended about 30 (98,400 ft) km to the south from the volcano on Jule 8. Clouds obscured the volcano in the other days.
BEZYMIANNY VOLCANO: 55°58’N, 160°36’E; Elevation 2,882 m
AVIATION COLOR CODE IS YELLOW
Grows of the lava dome of the volcano continues and aerosol plumes could affect low-flying aircraft.
Strong volcanic activity of Klyuchevskoy volcano obscured seismic data of Bezymianny all week. According to visual data, clouds obscured the volcano all week. According to satellite data, a small thermal anomaly was registering over the dome on Jule 6-8.
EBEKO VOLCANO,: 50o41’N, 156o01’E Elevation 1,156 m
AVIATION COLOR CODE IS YELLOW
Activity of the volcano increases. Ebeko volcano is not monitored with seismic instruments. KVERT has satellite monitoring and occasional visual messages about this volcano. The danger of sudden ash explosions as high as 3 km (9,840 ft.) ASL as well as ash falls at Severo-Kurilsk, exists.
According to the data by local observers at Severo-Kurilsk, activity on the volcano increases. Ash explosions at the volcano began to occur from 03:53 UTC on July 02. A height of ash column was about 1.8 km ASL. Ash plume extends to the south-south-east – to Severo-Kurilsk. KVERT continues to monitor the
volcano.
http://www.kscnet.ru/ivs/kvert/current/grl/index.html
villabolo says:
July 11, 2010 at 3:35 pm
Wise words. I wonder if any Warmists have considered them?
Steve Goddard – the referee (English, bless him!) did his best to let football decide the outcome of the match. He’d have been vilified for ‘ruining the game’ if he’d reached for a red card during the first 90 minutes – damned if you do, damned if you don’t, I think.
sod
Why can’t I just be a good boy and believe everything that authority tells me?
“Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts”
– Richard Feynman
stevengoddard says:
July 11, 2010 at 3:17 pm
Now that the winds have shifted in the Arctic, your 5.5M km2 prediction is looking a bit conservative.
Alex the skeptic says:
July 11, 2010 at 4:00 pm
R Gates: it wasn’t snowing in Florida. It was snowing all over the northern hemisphere. This winter we had the largest land snow cover ever between Nov and March. This winter, the sea ice cover at the SP is at an ALL TIME RECORD. Open your eyes and see the light, I mean the snow.
____________
Alex, during this past winter, the Arctic was dominated by two main features: A negative AO index, and an Arctic Dipole Anomaly. Both of these features forced cold air from the Arctic south over the N. Hemisphere. This wind pattern even created the now famous March “bump up” in late season sea ice that got the skeptics all twitter-pated about a “recovery”, but of course that ice vanished rapidly in May. Meanwhile, we had warm anomalies and high pressure over parts of N. Canada and over into the Arctic basin and Greenland. For many weeks I observed temperatures in Greenland in the 30’s, while there were temps in the teens in the deep south of the U.S. and in other places around the N. Hemisphere. We’ve discussed this at length here on WUWT, and the Arctic Dipole Anomaly may become a more permanent feature for the Arctic, which in turn, could lead to colder and snowier winters further south. This seems upside down, and skeptics love to pounce on the irony, but such is the nature of a chaotic system undergoing change. The DA is a wind event that is related to warmer waters in the Arctic, and seems to be self-reinforcing. I would refer you to this basic overview article about what future winters could be like, and you can follow up with your own research:
http://www.physorg.com/news195485722.html
Meanwhile, the first half of 2010 has seen a string of months with record high global temps. Yes, some of this is related to the El Nino, but the El Nino was not as strong as 1998, and we are not even close to a solar max. If we have a decent El Nino near the Solar Max of 2013, global record high temps will be shattered– and you can take that to the bank.
Meanwhile, the first half of 2010 has seen a string of months with record high global temps.
Sure, in a GISS world, every month is hotter than ever.
All those petaflopping processors generate a lot of heat.
“I would refer you to this basic overview article about what future winters could be like”
Gates, you give Steve a hard time for a prediction, then you link to one yourself.
“could”, what’s this “could” stuff?
Or actually could not – it’s a 50/50 like a coin toss.
Is this prediction from a “top scientist” any better than the prediction from another “top scientist” that snow would be a thing of the past?
Which is it? no more snow? or more snow?
Both top scientists said both.
AGW skeptics should pay no attention to these kinds of recent studies:
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn19155-soaring-arctic-temperatures–a-warning-from-history.html
Best to focus on short-term Arctic weather instead of climate, as at least you’ll have short periods when it appears that:
“the widely claimed polar meltdown continues to be nothing more than bad fiction.”
R. Gates
What if changes in Arctic temperatures had nothing to do with CO2?
Do you see any correlation?
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/gistemp_station.py?id=431042500000&data_set=1&num_neighbors=1
“AGW skeptics should pay no attention to these kinds of recent studies:”
and why is this supposed to be scary?
If you mean because they “think” CO2 levels were about the same as now, and they “think” global temperatures were 2-3 degree C warmer, and they “think” it was the last warm period before another glaciation.
And they “think” that even though CO2 levels were about where they are right now, we still had another ice age?
“Both top scientists said both.”
And both top scientists are blowing smoke up someone’s skirt………
They all have 100% hindsight, and can all predict the past with some accuracy.
If they really knew, they would have predicted this past winter we just had,
which they did not.
If we have no snow, some moron top scientist writes a paper saying it’s the trend of the future.
If we have a lot of snow, some moron top scientist writes a paper saying it’s the trend of the future.
Great, we spend billions on grants for top scientists to predict the past…….
and at any given moment you can find some recent paper writen by some moron scientist that accidently got it right, simply because they throw so much stuff out there every now and then one of them guesses right
Breckite says
Around Monarch pass . We hunt in mid Sep. right up to the divide markers. No snow where I at one time would sit and have lunch with snow all around.
Gates, perhaps you know how ironic it is that you chastise skeptics for looking at weather rather than climate, when it has been CAGW advocates who have been claiming weather events to be their proof of CAGW. Whether it was 2005 hurricances or 98 El Nino or 2010 summer Eastern heat wave or 2003 European heat wave or 2006 Canadian cold wave or 2009 above normal precipitation or 2007 droughts or 1993 Iowa rains or . . . these weather events are given as evidence of CO2-induced climate change.
I found a good Antarctic Sea Ice Concentration Anomaly map for June on NSIDC:
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/Jun/S_201006_anom.png
So not only is the Antarctic Sea Ice Extent Anomaly very large:
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_bm_extent_hires.png
but the concentration is very high.
This is likely due in part to the fact that the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) is currently in a very strong positive state;
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/hgt.aao.cdas.gif
and in fact the month of June was the second highest positive monthly average AAO Index reading in the historical record, second only to July 1979:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/monthly.aao.index.b79.current.ascii.table
My conclusions from this are that our understanding Earth’s climate system is very limited, our historical record is troublingly brief and our predictive capacity as it relates to the long term trajectory and future state of Earth’s climate system and its average temperature is essentially nil…
Mr. Goddard,
Perhaps you have more urgent matters at hand, but I would be interested in your view of why Arctic ice extent this spring was “unprecedented” in IARC-JAXA time, and that this was followed by unprecedented low levels in June.