Some people cite scientists saying there is a “CO2 control knob” for Earth. No doubt there is, but due to the logarithmic effect of CO2, I think of it like a fine tuning knob, not the main station tuner. That said, a new data picture is emerging of an even bigger knob and lever; a nice bright yellow one.
A few months back, I found a website from NOAA that provides an algorithm and downloadable program for spotting regime shifts in time series data. It was designed by Sergei Rodionov of the NOAA Bering Climate and Ecosystem Center for the purpose of detecting shifts in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.
Regime shifts are defined as rapid reorganizations of ecosystems from one relatively stable state to another. In the marine environment, regimes may last for several decades and shifts often appear to be associated with changes in the climate system. In the North Pacific, climate regimes are typically described using the concept of Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Regime shifts were also found in many other variables as demonstrated in the Data section of this website (select a variable and then click “Recent trends”).
But data is data, and the program doesn’t care if it is ecosystem data, temperature data, population data, or solar data. It just looks for and identifies abrupt changes that stabilize at a new level. For example, a useful application of the program is to look for shifts in weather data, such as that caused by the PDO. Here we can clearly see the great Pacific Climate Shift of 1976/77:
Another useful application is to use it to identify station moves that result in a temperature shift. It might also be applied to proxy data, such as ice core Oxygen 18 isotope data.
But the program was developed around the PDO. What drives the PDO? Many say the sun, though there are other factors too. It follows to reason then the we might be able to look for solar regime shifts in PDO driven temperature data.
Alan of AppInSys found the same application and has done just that, and the results are quite interesting. The correlation is well aligned, and it demonstrates the solar to PDO connection quite well. I’ll let him tell his story of discovery below. – Anthony
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Climate Regime Shifts
The notion that climate variations often occur in the form of ‘‘regimes’’ began to become appreciated in the 1990s. This paradigm was inspired in large part by the rapid change of the North Pacific climate around 1977 [e.g., Kerr, 1992] and the identification of other abrupt shifts in association with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) [Mantua et al., 1997].” [http://www.beringclimate.noaa.gov/regimes/Regime_shift_algorithm.pdf]
Pacific Regime Shifts
Hare and Mantua, 2000 (“Empirical evidence for North Pacific regime shifts in 1977 and 1989”): “It is now widely accepted that a climatic regime shift transpired in the North Pacific Ocean in the winter of 1976–77. This regime shift has had far reaching consequences for the large marine ecosystems of the North Pacific. Despite the strength and scope of the changes initiated by the shift, it was 10–15 years before it was fully recognized. Subsequent research has suggested that this event was not unique in the historical record but merely the latest in a succession of climatic regime shifts. In this study, we assembled 100 environmental time series, 31 climatic and 69 biological, to determine if there is evidence for common regime signals in the 1965–1997 period of record. Our analysis reproduces previously documented features of the 1977 regime shift, and identifies a further shift in 1989 in some components of the North Pacific ecosystem. The 1989 changes were neither as pervasive as the 1977 changes nor did they signal a simple return to pre-1977 conditions.”
[http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6V7B-41FTS3S-2…]
Overland et al “North Pacific regime shifts: Definitions, issues and recent transitions”
[http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/foci/publications/2008/overN667.pdf]: “climate variables for the North Pacific display shifts near 1977, 1989 and 1998.”
The following figure from the above paper show analysis of PDO and Victoria Index using the Rodionov regime detection algorithm. A regime shift is also detected around 1947-48.
The following figure shows regime shift detection for the summer PDO, showing shifts at 1948, 1976 and 1998.
[http://www.beringclimate.noaa.gov/data/Images/PDOs_FigRegime.html]
(For detailed information on the 1976/77 climate shift,
see: http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/The1976-78ClimateShift.htm)
Regime Shift Detection in Annual Temperature Anomaly Data
The NOAA Bering Climate web site provides the algorithm for regime shift detection developed by Sergei Rodionov [http://www.beringclimate.noaa.gov/regimes/index.html]. The following analyses use the Excel VBA regime change algorithm version 3.2 from this web site.
The following figure shows the regime analysis of the HadCRUT3 annual global annual average temperature anomaly data from the Met Office Hadley Centre for 1895 to 2009 [http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagnostics/global/nh+sh/annual].
The analysis was run based on the mean using a significance level of 0.1, cut-off length of 10 and Huber weight parameter of 2 using red noise IP4 subsample size 6. Regime changes are identified in 1902, 1914, 1926, 1937, 1946, 1957, 1977, 1987, and 1997. Running the analysis based on the variance rather than the mean results in regime changes in the bold years listed above.
Regime Shift Relationship to Solar Cycle
The NASA Solar Physics web site provides the following figure showing sunspot area.
[http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/SunspotCycle.shtml]
The following figure compares the Hadley (HadCrut3) monthly global average temperature (from [http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagnostics/global/nh+sh/]) overlaid with the regime change line (red line) shown previously, along with the sunspot area since 1900. The sunspot cycle is approximately 11 years. The sun’s magnetic field reverses with each sunspot cycle and thus after two sunspot cycles the magnetic field has completed a cycle – a Hale Cycle – and is back to where it started. Thus a complete magnetic sunspot cycle is approximately 22 years. The figure marks the onset of odd-numbered cycles with a vertical red line, even-numbered cycles with a green line.
From the figure above it can be seen that the regime changes correspond to the onset of solar cycles and occur when the “butterfly” is at its widest. The most significant warming regime shifts occur at the start of odd-numbered cycles (1937, 1957, 1977, 1997). Each odd-numbered cycle (red lines above) has resulted in a temperature-increase regime shift. Even-numbered cycles (green lines above) have been inconsistent, with some resulting in temperature-decrease regime shifts (1902, 1946) or minor temperature-increase shifts (1926, 1987).
An unusual one is the 1957 – 1966 cycle, which in the monthly data shown above visually looks like a temperature-increase shift in 1957 followed by a temperature-decrease shift in 1964 but the regime detection algorithm did not identify it. This is likely due to the use of annually averaged data in the regime detection algorithm.
The following figure shows the relative polarity of the Sun’s magnetic poles for recent sunspot cycles along with the solar magnetic flux [www.bu.edu/csp/nas/IHY_MagField.ppt]. The regime change periods are highlighted by the red and green boxes. Each one occurs on as the solar cycle is accelerating. The onset of an odd-numbered sunspot cycle (1977-78, 1997-98) results in the relative alignment of the Earth’s and the Sun’s magnetic fields (positive North pole on the Sun) allowing greater penetration of the geomagnetic storms into the Earth’s atmosphere. “Twenty times more solar particles cross the Earth’s leaky magnetic shield when the sun’s magnetic field is aligned with that of the Earth compared to when the two magnetic fields are oppositely directed” [http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/themis/news/themis_leaky_shield.html]
The following figure shows the longitudinally averaged solar magnetic field. This “magnetic butterfly diagram” shows that the sunspots are involved with transporting the field in its reversal. The Earth’s temperature regime shifts are indicated with the superimposed boxes – red on odd numbered solar cycles, green on even.
[http://solarphysics.livingreviews.org/open?pubNo=lrsp-2010-1&page=articlesu8.html]
The Earth’s temperature regime shift occurs as the solar magnetic field begins its reversal.
Solar Cycle 24
Solar cycle 24 is in its initial stage after getting off to a late start. An El Nino occurred in the first part of 2010. This may be the start of the next regime shift.
Climate Regime Shifts
[last update: 2010/07/04]
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“The notion that climate variations often occur in the form of ‘‘regimes’’ began to become appreciated in the 1990s. This paradigm was inspired in large part by the rapid change of the North Pacific climate around 1977 [e.g., Kerr, 1992] and the identification of other abrupt shifts in association with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) [Mantua et al., 1997].” [http://www.beringclimate.noaa.gov/regimes/Regime_shift_algorithm.pdf]
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Pacific Regime Shifts
Hare and Mantua, 2000 (“Empirical evidence for North Pacific regime shifts in 1977 and 1989”): “It is now widely accepted that a climatic regime shift transpired in the North Pacific Ocean in the winter of 1976–77. This regime shift has had far reaching consequences for the large marine ecosystems of the North Pacific. Despite the strength and scope of the changes initiated by the shift, it was 10–15 years before it was fully recognized. Subsequent research has suggested that this event was not unique in the historical record but merely the latest in a succession of climatic regime shifts. In this study, we assembled 100 environmental time series, 31 climatic and 69 biological, to determine if there is evidence for common regime signals in the 1965–1997 period of record. Our analysis reproduces previously documented features of the 1977 regime shift, and identifies a further shift in 1989 in some components of the North Pacific ecosystem. The 1989 changes were neither as pervasive as the 1977 changes nor did they signal a simple return to pre-1977 conditions.” [http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6V7B-41FTS3S-2…]
Overland et al “North Pacific regime shifts: Definitions, issues and recent transitions” [http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/foci/publications/2008/overN667.pdf]: “climate variables for the North Pacific display shifts near 1977, 1989 and 1998.”
The following figure from the above paper show analysis of PDO and Victoria Index using the Rodionov regime detection algorithm. A regime shift is also detected around 1947-48.
The following figure shows regime shift detection for the summer PDO, showing shifts at 1948, 1976 and 1998. [http://www.beringclimate.noaa.gov/data/Images/PDOs_FigRegime.html]
(For detailed information on the 1976/77 climate shift, see: http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/The1976-78ClimateShift.htm)
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Regime Shift Detection in Annual Temperature Anomaly Data
The NOAA Bering Climate web site provides the algorithm for regime shift detection developed by Sergei Rodionov [http://www.beringclimate.noaa.gov/regimes/index.html]. The following analyses use the Excel VBA regime change algorithm version 3.2 from this web site.
The following figure shows the regime analysis of the HadCRUT3 annual global annual average temperature anomaly data from the Met Office Hadley Centre for 1895 to 2009 [http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagnostics/global/nh+sh/annual].
The analysis was run based on the mean using a significance level of 0.1, cut-off length of 10 and Huber weight parameter of 2 using red noise IP4 subsample size 6. Regime changes are identified in 1902, 1914, 1926, 1937, 1946, 1957, 1977, 1987, and 1997. Running the analysis based on the variance rather than the mean results in regime changes in the bold years listed above.
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Regime Shift Relationship to Solar Cycle
The NASA Solar Physics web site provides the following figure showing sunspot area. [http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/SunspotCycle.shtml]
The following figure compares the Hadley (HadCrut3) monthly global average temperature (from [http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagnostics/global/nh+sh/]) overlaid with the regime change line (red line) shown previously, along with the sunspot area since 1900. The sunspot cycle is approximately 11 years. The sun’s magnetic field reverses with each sunspot cycle and thus after two sunspot cycles the magnetic field has completed a cycle – a Hale Cycle – and is back to where it started. Thus a complete magnetic sunspot cycle is approximately 22 years. The figure marks the onset of odd-numbered cycles with a vertical red line, even-numbered cycles with a green line.
From the figure above it can be seen that the regime changes correspond to the onset of solar cycles and occur when the “butterfly” is at its widest. The most significant warming regime shifts occur at the start of odd-numbered cycles (1937, 1957, 1977, 1997). Each odd-numbered cycle (red lines above) has resulted in a temperature-increase regime shift. Even-numbered cycles (green lines above) have been inconsistent, with some resulting in temperature-decrease regime shifts (1902, 1946) or minor temperature-increase shifts (1926, 1987).
An unusual one is the 1957 – 1966 cycle, which in the monthly data shown above visually looks like a temperature-increase shift in 1957 followed by a temperature-decrease shift in 1964 but the regime detection algorithm did not identify it. This is likely due to the use of annually averaged data in the regime detection algorithm.
The following figure shows the relative polarity of the Sun’s magnetic poles for recent sunspot cycles along with the solar magnetic flux [www.bu.edu/csp/nas/IHY_MagField.ppt]. The regime change periods are highlighted by the red and green boxes. Each one occurs on as the solar cycle is accelerating. The onset of an odd-numbered sunspot cycle (1977-78, 1997-98) results in the relative alignment of the Earth’s and the Sun’s magnetic fields (positive North pole on the Sun) allowing greater penetration of the geomagnetic storms into the Earth’s atmosphere. “Twenty times more solar particles cross the Earth’s leaky magnetic shield when the sun’s magnetic field is aligned with that of the Earth compared to when the two magnetic fields are oppositely directed” [http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/themis/news/themis_leaky_shield.html]
The following figure shows the longitudinally averaged solar magnetic field. This “magnetic butterfly diagram” shows that the sunspots are involved with transporting the field in its reversal. The Earth’s temperature regime shifts are indicated with the superimposed boxes – red on odd numbered solar cycles, green on even. [http://solarphysics.livingreviews.org/open?pubNo=lrsp-2010-1&page=articlesu8.html]
The Earth’s temperature regime shift occurs as the solar magnetic field begins its reversal.
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Solar Cycle 24
Solar cycle 24 is in its initial stage after getting off to a late start. An El Nino occurred in the first part of 2010. This may be the start of the next regime shift.
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Leif Svalgaard says:
July 17, 2010 at 5:01 am
tallbloke says:
July 17, 2010 at 1:29 am
If we did the same calculation for Jupiter, what would that force be? And Venus?
Venus doesn’t have a real magnetosphere, so even smaller effect, and Jupiter is 5 times further out, where the solar wind is 25 times weaker [plus Jupiter is heavy], so if anything the relative effect would be smaller.
Hi Leif. When you say “the relative effect would be smaller”, do you mean per unit of mass? Jupiter is a lot bigger than Earth as you know, and has a huge magnetosphere, so what I’m after is the total size of the drag on Jupiter. Thanks for the info on the strength of the solar wind at the distance of Jupiters orbit. Venus is a lot closer to the sun than Earth is, what would the strength of the solar wind be there relative to Earth? How do the qualitative qantities ‘stronger’ and ‘weaker’ pan out in terms of solar wind speed and proton density at each of the three orbits?
tallbloke says:
July 19, 2010 at 1:00 am
Hi Leif. When you say “the relative effect would be smaller”, do you mean per unit of mass? Jupiter is a lot bigger than Earth as you know, and has a huge magnetosphere, so what I’m after is the total size of the drag on Jupiter.
The total drag is not important as it has to be compared to the gravitational force. The drag per unit mass and unit area is, but see below.
Venus is a lot closer to the sun than Earth is
Not a lot, 70%.
what would the strength of the solar wind be there relative to Earth? How do the qualitative qantities ‘stronger’ and ‘weaker’ pan out in terms of solar wind speed and proton density at each of the three orbits?
The speed does not vary much, so can be taken as constant. Te density goes inversely with the square of the density. So at Venus the density is twice that at the Earth, and at Jupiter 27 times smaller than at Earth. The magnetosphere of Jupiter is bigger, but is much ‘flatter’ than that of the Earth [because of Jupiter’s faster rotation], such as to be more like a disk than a blunt ‘sphere’ [as seen from the Sun]. The disk is 200 Rj wide and 20 Rj thick, so the thicker part of the magnetosphere cross-section is 4000 Rj^2, compared to the 100 Re^2 for the Earth. For both there is a larger ‘flaring’ out of the cross-section as you move away from the planet, but out there the solar wind pressure becomes glancing, so has much less effect. All in all, the Jovian magnetosphere cross-section is about 4000/100 = 40 is relatively larger than the terrestrial [and is rather variable depending on solar wind conditions], but the mass of Jupiter goes with the cube of the Jovian radius, Rj, and is 318 times larger. The density falls off with the inverse square of the distance, but so does the gravitational force. Now, all of this hardly matters much [and is hand waving, anyway], as the drag is so small compared to gravity that even if we are off by one or two orders of magnitude, the effect is still too small. We have observed Jupiter for centuries and not found any changes in the orbit [even a tiny change would be cumulative]. As a change of Jupiter’s orbit would influence those of the other planets [e.g. the Earth.s] we can extend the ‘centuries’ to hundred of thousands of years, because the Milankovitch cycle would be altered too.
I think the bottom line still is that it seems a waste of time to investigate ‘planet orbit’ changing forces on time scales of interest. Now, billions of years ago, this was a different story.
tallbloke says:
July 19, 2010 at 1:00 am
When you say “the relative effect would be smaller”, do you mean per unit of mass?
Another perspective is this:
Solar wind pressure at Earth is 4*10^(-9) Newton/square meter, and the pressure of plain sunshine is 5*10^(-6) N/m2, or a thousand times larger. Since both decrease the same way with distance, that ratio [~1000] stays constant. Now, the cross-section of a magnetosphere is 100-1000 times that of the planet, so the total forces of sunlight and solar wind become comparable. Since those forces increase with the square of the linear dimension, but the mass increases with the cube of the linear dimension, for small masses [dust grains] the pressure overwhelms the gravitational forces and will alter the orbits, but for large masses this does not hold, and less the larger the mass is.
We have observed Jupiter for centuries and not found any changes in the orbit [even a tiny change would be cumulative].
Nor would I expect there to be. But that’s not the point. You say the drag of the solar wind transferred angular momemtum to the planetary orbits, pushing the planets out to higher orbits aeons ago, but that this efect has now stopped. I’m saying it hasn’t stopped, but reached a point of balance whereby the outward force is matching the inward force created by the decay of the planetary orbits.
What I’m trying to get a handle on is the magnitude of these cancelling forces for each of the three planets. You said entropy for a given system can be balanced. I agree, but the energy to balance it must be coming from the Sun.
Anyway, not to worry, I think I’ve just found a much bigger force which would be sending an electric field sunwards. More soon.
tallbloke says:
July 19, 2010 at 8:31 am
the decay of the planetary orbits.
They are not decaying, if anything they are moving away from the sun, because the sun is losing mass.
What is the magnitude of the reduction in gravity due to mass loss?
tallbloke says:
July 19, 2010 at 10:19 am
What is the magnitude of the reduction in gravity due to mass loss?
one part in 5*10^20 per second due to radiation and about the same due to the solar wind. 10^19 seconds is 70 times the lifetime of the sun, so the planets will have other things to worry about.
The Oxfordshire’s monthly 150 year long rain record is compared to the sunspot number.
It is clear, that if there is any correlation, it is at best sporadic and inconclusive.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/Oxf-rain.htm
The Tropopause Ice-Locker Effect
I have noted that the temperatures at the tropopause are much colder than one might expect from the nominal temperature based on the average solar energy flow at that level. This may be nothing new for those who know, but I now believe that this is simply due to the fact that most solar energy flows through this region without interacting with the atmosphere. Only that small residual trickle of solar energy that is in the Earth’s greenhouse-gas absorption-bands, I believe, can heat this level of the atmosphere. Thus this region can be quite cold.
As the tropopause is the nominal level where convection stops, this must be the level at which photons emitted from the Earth’s trace greenhouse gases finally have a good chance of escaping to outer space.
In a video presented above, [Amino Acids in Meteorites: July 5, 2010 at 1:52 pm], Willis Eschenbach presented his theory that thunderstorms acted as governors to control our climate. I think he is right. I also believe that what I have called the tropopause ice-locker effect allows this system to exhaust heat at very cold temperatures in the upper atmosphere so that surface conditions are livable.