Some people cite scientists saying there is a “CO2 control knob” for Earth. No doubt there is, but due to the logarithmic effect of CO2, I think of it like a fine tuning knob, not the main station tuner. That said, a new data picture is emerging of an even bigger knob and lever; a nice bright yellow one.
A few months back, I found a website from NOAA that provides an algorithm and downloadable program for spotting regime shifts in time series data. It was designed by Sergei Rodionov of the NOAA Bering Climate and Ecosystem Center for the purpose of detecting shifts in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.
Regime shifts are defined as rapid reorganizations of ecosystems from one relatively stable state to another. In the marine environment, regimes may last for several decades and shifts often appear to be associated with changes in the climate system. In the North Pacific, climate regimes are typically described using the concept of Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Regime shifts were also found in many other variables as demonstrated in the Data section of this website (select a variable and then click “Recent trends”).
But data is data, and the program doesn’t care if it is ecosystem data, temperature data, population data, or solar data. It just looks for and identifies abrupt changes that stabilize at a new level. For example, a useful application of the program is to look for shifts in weather data, such as that caused by the PDO. Here we can clearly see the great Pacific Climate Shift of 1976/77:
Another useful application is to use it to identify station moves that result in a temperature shift. It might also be applied to proxy data, such as ice core Oxygen 18 isotope data.
But the program was developed around the PDO. What drives the PDO? Many say the sun, though there are other factors too. It follows to reason then the we might be able to look for solar regime shifts in PDO driven temperature data.
Alan of AppInSys found the same application and has done just that, and the results are quite interesting. The correlation is well aligned, and it demonstrates the solar to PDO connection quite well. I’ll let him tell his story of discovery below. – Anthony
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Climate Regime Shifts
The notion that climate variations often occur in the form of ‘‘regimes’’ began to become appreciated in the 1990s. This paradigm was inspired in large part by the rapid change of the North Pacific climate around 1977 [e.g., Kerr, 1992] and the identification of other abrupt shifts in association with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) [Mantua et al., 1997].” [http://www.beringclimate.noaa.gov/regimes/Regime_shift_algorithm.pdf]
Pacific Regime Shifts
Hare and Mantua, 2000 (“Empirical evidence for North Pacific regime shifts in 1977 and 1989”): “It is now widely accepted that a climatic regime shift transpired in the North Pacific Ocean in the winter of 1976–77. This regime shift has had far reaching consequences for the large marine ecosystems of the North Pacific. Despite the strength and scope of the changes initiated by the shift, it was 10–15 years before it was fully recognized. Subsequent research has suggested that this event was not unique in the historical record but merely the latest in a succession of climatic regime shifts. In this study, we assembled 100 environmental time series, 31 climatic and 69 biological, to determine if there is evidence for common regime signals in the 1965–1997 period of record. Our analysis reproduces previously documented features of the 1977 regime shift, and identifies a further shift in 1989 in some components of the North Pacific ecosystem. The 1989 changes were neither as pervasive as the 1977 changes nor did they signal a simple return to pre-1977 conditions.”
[http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6V7B-41FTS3S-2…]
Overland et al “North Pacific regime shifts: Definitions, issues and recent transitions”
[http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/foci/publications/2008/overN667.pdf]: “climate variables for the North Pacific display shifts near 1977, 1989 and 1998.”
The following figure from the above paper show analysis of PDO and Victoria Index using the Rodionov regime detection algorithm. A regime shift is also detected around 1947-48.
The following figure shows regime shift detection for the summer PDO, showing shifts at 1948, 1976 and 1998.
[http://www.beringclimate.noaa.gov/data/Images/PDOs_FigRegime.html]
(For detailed information on the 1976/77 climate shift,
see: http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/The1976-78ClimateShift.htm)
Regime Shift Detection in Annual Temperature Anomaly Data
The NOAA Bering Climate web site provides the algorithm for regime shift detection developed by Sergei Rodionov [http://www.beringclimate.noaa.gov/regimes/index.html]. The following analyses use the Excel VBA regime change algorithm version 3.2 from this web site.
The following figure shows the regime analysis of the HadCRUT3 annual global annual average temperature anomaly data from the Met Office Hadley Centre for 1895 to 2009 [http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagnostics/global/nh+sh/annual].
The analysis was run based on the mean using a significance level of 0.1, cut-off length of 10 and Huber weight parameter of 2 using red noise IP4 subsample size 6. Regime changes are identified in 1902, 1914, 1926, 1937, 1946, 1957, 1977, 1987, and 1997. Running the analysis based on the variance rather than the mean results in regime changes in the bold years listed above.
Regime Shift Relationship to Solar Cycle
The NASA Solar Physics web site provides the following figure showing sunspot area.
[http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/SunspotCycle.shtml]
The following figure compares the Hadley (HadCrut3) monthly global average temperature (from [http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagnostics/global/nh+sh/]) overlaid with the regime change line (red line) shown previously, along with the sunspot area since 1900. The sunspot cycle is approximately 11 years. The sun’s magnetic field reverses with each sunspot cycle and thus after two sunspot cycles the magnetic field has completed a cycle – a Hale Cycle – and is back to where it started. Thus a complete magnetic sunspot cycle is approximately 22 years. The figure marks the onset of odd-numbered cycles with a vertical red line, even-numbered cycles with a green line.
From the figure above it can be seen that the regime changes correspond to the onset of solar cycles and occur when the “butterfly” is at its widest. The most significant warming regime shifts occur at the start of odd-numbered cycles (1937, 1957, 1977, 1997). Each odd-numbered cycle (red lines above) has resulted in a temperature-increase regime shift. Even-numbered cycles (green lines above) have been inconsistent, with some resulting in temperature-decrease regime shifts (1902, 1946) or minor temperature-increase shifts (1926, 1987).
An unusual one is the 1957 – 1966 cycle, which in the monthly data shown above visually looks like a temperature-increase shift in 1957 followed by a temperature-decrease shift in 1964 but the regime detection algorithm did not identify it. This is likely due to the use of annually averaged data in the regime detection algorithm.
The following figure shows the relative polarity of the Sun’s magnetic poles for recent sunspot cycles along with the solar magnetic flux [www.bu.edu/csp/nas/IHY_MagField.ppt]. The regime change periods are highlighted by the red and green boxes. Each one occurs on as the solar cycle is accelerating. The onset of an odd-numbered sunspot cycle (1977-78, 1997-98) results in the relative alignment of the Earth’s and the Sun’s magnetic fields (positive North pole on the Sun) allowing greater penetration of the geomagnetic storms into the Earth’s atmosphere. “Twenty times more solar particles cross the Earth’s leaky magnetic shield when the sun’s magnetic field is aligned with that of the Earth compared to when the two magnetic fields are oppositely directed” [http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/themis/news/themis_leaky_shield.html]
The following figure shows the longitudinally averaged solar magnetic field. This “magnetic butterfly diagram” shows that the sunspots are involved with transporting the field in its reversal. The Earth’s temperature regime shifts are indicated with the superimposed boxes – red on odd numbered solar cycles, green on even.
[http://solarphysics.livingreviews.org/open?pubNo=lrsp-2010-1&page=articlesu8.html]
The Earth’s temperature regime shift occurs as the solar magnetic field begins its reversal.
Solar Cycle 24
Solar cycle 24 is in its initial stage after getting off to a late start. An El Nino occurred in the first part of 2010. This may be the start of the next regime shift.
Climate Regime Shifts
[last update: 2010/07/04]
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“The notion that climate variations often occur in the form of ‘‘regimes’’ began to become appreciated in the 1990s. This paradigm was inspired in large part by the rapid change of the North Pacific climate around 1977 [e.g., Kerr, 1992] and the identification of other abrupt shifts in association with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) [Mantua et al., 1997].” [http://www.beringclimate.noaa.gov/regimes/Regime_shift_algorithm.pdf]
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Pacific Regime Shifts
Hare and Mantua, 2000 (“Empirical evidence for North Pacific regime shifts in 1977 and 1989”): “It is now widely accepted that a climatic regime shift transpired in the North Pacific Ocean in the winter of 1976–77. This regime shift has had far reaching consequences for the large marine ecosystems of the North Pacific. Despite the strength and scope of the changes initiated by the shift, it was 10–15 years before it was fully recognized. Subsequent research has suggested that this event was not unique in the historical record but merely the latest in a succession of climatic regime shifts. In this study, we assembled 100 environmental time series, 31 climatic and 69 biological, to determine if there is evidence for common regime signals in the 1965–1997 period of record. Our analysis reproduces previously documented features of the 1977 regime shift, and identifies a further shift in 1989 in some components of the North Pacific ecosystem. The 1989 changes were neither as pervasive as the 1977 changes nor did they signal a simple return to pre-1977 conditions.” [http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6V7B-41FTS3S-2…]
Overland et al “North Pacific regime shifts: Definitions, issues and recent transitions” [http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/foci/publications/2008/overN667.pdf]: “climate variables for the North Pacific display shifts near 1977, 1989 and 1998.”
The following figure from the above paper show analysis of PDO and Victoria Index using the Rodionov regime detection algorithm. A regime shift is also detected around 1947-48.
The following figure shows regime shift detection for the summer PDO, showing shifts at 1948, 1976 and 1998. [http://www.beringclimate.noaa.gov/data/Images/PDOs_FigRegime.html]
(For detailed information on the 1976/77 climate shift, see: http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/The1976-78ClimateShift.htm)
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Regime Shift Detection in Annual Temperature Anomaly Data
The NOAA Bering Climate web site provides the algorithm for regime shift detection developed by Sergei Rodionov [http://www.beringclimate.noaa.gov/regimes/index.html]. The following analyses use the Excel VBA regime change algorithm version 3.2 from this web site.
The following figure shows the regime analysis of the HadCRUT3 annual global annual average temperature anomaly data from the Met Office Hadley Centre for 1895 to 2009 [http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagnostics/global/nh+sh/annual].
The analysis was run based on the mean using a significance level of 0.1, cut-off length of 10 and Huber weight parameter of 2 using red noise IP4 subsample size 6. Regime changes are identified in 1902, 1914, 1926, 1937, 1946, 1957, 1977, 1987, and 1997. Running the analysis based on the variance rather than the mean results in regime changes in the bold years listed above.
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Regime Shift Relationship to Solar Cycle
The NASA Solar Physics web site provides the following figure showing sunspot area. [http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/SunspotCycle.shtml]
The following figure compares the Hadley (HadCrut3) monthly global average temperature (from [http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagnostics/global/nh+sh/]) overlaid with the regime change line (red line) shown previously, along with the sunspot area since 1900. The sunspot cycle is approximately 11 years. The sun’s magnetic field reverses with each sunspot cycle and thus after two sunspot cycles the magnetic field has completed a cycle – a Hale Cycle – and is back to where it started. Thus a complete magnetic sunspot cycle is approximately 22 years. The figure marks the onset of odd-numbered cycles with a vertical red line, even-numbered cycles with a green line.
From the figure above it can be seen that the regime changes correspond to the onset of solar cycles and occur when the “butterfly” is at its widest. The most significant warming regime shifts occur at the start of odd-numbered cycles (1937, 1957, 1977, 1997). Each odd-numbered cycle (red lines above) has resulted in a temperature-increase regime shift. Even-numbered cycles (green lines above) have been inconsistent, with some resulting in temperature-decrease regime shifts (1902, 1946) or minor temperature-increase shifts (1926, 1987).
An unusual one is the 1957 – 1966 cycle, which in the monthly data shown above visually looks like a temperature-increase shift in 1957 followed by a temperature-decrease shift in 1964 but the regime detection algorithm did not identify it. This is likely due to the use of annually averaged data in the regime detection algorithm.
The following figure shows the relative polarity of the Sun’s magnetic poles for recent sunspot cycles along with the solar magnetic flux [www.bu.edu/csp/nas/IHY_MagField.ppt]. The regime change periods are highlighted by the red and green boxes. Each one occurs on as the solar cycle is accelerating. The onset of an odd-numbered sunspot cycle (1977-78, 1997-98) results in the relative alignment of the Earth’s and the Sun’s magnetic fields (positive North pole on the Sun) allowing greater penetration of the geomagnetic storms into the Earth’s atmosphere. “Twenty times more solar particles cross the Earth’s leaky magnetic shield when the sun’s magnetic field is aligned with that of the Earth compared to when the two magnetic fields are oppositely directed” [http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/themis/news/themis_leaky_shield.html]
The following figure shows the longitudinally averaged solar magnetic field. This “magnetic butterfly diagram” shows that the sunspots are involved with transporting the field in its reversal. The Earth’s temperature regime shifts are indicated with the superimposed boxes – red on odd numbered solar cycles, green on even. [http://solarphysics.livingreviews.org/open?pubNo=lrsp-2010-1&page=articlesu8.html]
The Earth’s temperature regime shift occurs as the solar magnetic field begins its reversal.
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Solar Cycle 24
Solar cycle 24 is in its initial stage after getting off to a late start. An El Nino occurred in the first part of 2010. This may be the start of the next regime shift.
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Bob Tisdale.
Most non professional commentators are now using the term ‘PDO’ to refer to the approximately 30 year phase shift whereby the ENSO phenomenon first causes a period of global warming and then a period of global cooling.
I have told you before that that is the way I use the term and that I am aware that it is not the strictly correct definition.
You may not like me doing that but I have made it clear more than once so your ad hominems are inappropriate.
I also once suggested that we could invent a new term to clarify matters and tongue in cheek I suggested ‘Wildean Ocean Cycles’.
As regards possible falsifications I have already mentioned several in this very thread and also in other threads at other times.
One would be a period of warm global sea surface temperatures and an active sun with the jets shifting equatorward rather than poleward.
Another would be global albedo declining as the jets moved equatorward.
Another would be the ITCZ not moving poleward or equatorward in conjunction with the mid latitude jets.
Another would be a persistent a failure of the jets and ITCZ to move latitudinally at all apart from normal seasonal variation.
Yet another would be a failure of that 30 year phase shift to occur at all.
I think you need to ask yourself how simple Trade Wind changes could cause those phase changes without a more fundamental realignment of the air circulation systems caused by larger phenomena than those involved directly in the ENSO cycle itself.
There lies the way forward for your otherwise fine work in that you could then link your findings to the longer global climate history.
One can take a horse to water but cannot make it drink.
Leif Svalgaard:
“I’ll second that. My example is ‘turbulence in the sun””
I don’t recall ever using that term. As far as I can recall I have referred to turbulence on the solar surface causing turbulence or irregularity in the solar wind which then affects the thermal characteristics of the Earth’s atmosphere.
“You take that to(o) far. She does not think that things are so uncertain that one cannot make any conclusions.”
She doesn’t come to any conclusions she just speculates that CFCs made a big enough contribution to prevent the ozone levels returning to pre 1980 levels in the forseeable future and treats that speculation as a conclusion but I do not criticise her for that in the light of the inadequate data available. She just does what I do and what every sensible person does when faced with a problem that is currently insoluble. Make the best guess one can on the available evidence and see whether ongoing events match that guess. I have never pretended to be doing anything else but you sure do.
“This is typical of your style. You might as well have said: “turn of(f) the Sun and see what you get”. The flux from the Earth to Space is equal to the flux from space [including the Sun]. If the input varies so does the output.”
Of course it does over time but as you admit there are lots of components in the Earth system that process the energy differentially inside the Earth system. Water, land, air and no doubt different layers in the oceans and air differ in their responses to solar input. Additionally, changes in the balance of radiation wavelengths and changes in the flow (speed, rate, turbulence,whatever) of solar energy via the solar wind will also introduce differential effects from outside the Earth system thus changing the internal system responses. I have put my points in that way before but you ignored it. That is typical of your style.
Alan Cheetham says: July 6, 2010 at 5:45 pm
&
Bob Tisdale says (July 6, 3:23 am):
The AMO is closely correlated to the Arctic temperature.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/AMOFz.htm
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/NFC1.htm
Stephen Wilde says:
July 6, 2010 at 11:16 pm
“I’ll second that. My example is ‘turbulence in the sun””
I don’t recall ever using that term. As far as I can recall I have referred to turbulence on the solar surface
now it is turbulence on the sun. The wrong word is ‘turbulence’, not ‘in’ or ‘on’.
She doesn’t come to any conclusions she just speculates that CFCs made a big enough contribution
I do not see the word ‘speculation’ in her paper.
changes in the flow (speed, rate, turbulence,whatever) of solar energy via the solar wind will also introduce differential effects from outside the Earth system thus changing the internal system responses.
This is your speculation, but with characteristic style you fail to differentiate between different regimes: whatever solar wind interaction changes in the thermosphere and ionosphere does not propagate enough energy to the surface [where we observe climate] to have any noticeable effect.
“The wrong word is ‘turbulence’, not ‘in’ or ‘on’.”
So what is the ‘correct’ word for the composite effect of sunspots and solar flares on the solar surface ?
“whatever solar wind interaction changes in the thermosphere and ionosphere”
I did not restrict my comments to events in those two areas which are only a tiny portion of the overall system. Nor do I regard the solar wind as the only means of transmitting effects to the various components of the Earth system. Changes in the balance of wavelengths is another. Upwardly transmitted gravity waves yet another. It is not necessary for energy to be propogated downward, merely for it to propogate upwards variably and we know such variability exists from a link you provided previously.
You keep raising straw men and ignoring inconvenient issues but that is just your style I suppose
Stephen Wilde replied, “Most non professional commentators are now using the term ‘PDO’ to refer to the approximately 30 year phase shift whereby the ENSO phenomenon first causes a period of global warming and then a period of global cooling.”
They are? Please link where “[m]ost non professional commentators” make this clarification. You are the only blogger I know who does this. When talking about low frequency components of ENSO, other bloggers discuss it that way, so not to confuse it with the correct definition of PDO.
You wrote with respect to ways your conjectures could be falsified, “Yet another would be a failure of that 30 year phase shift to occur at all.”
FYI, paleoclimatological reconstructions of ENSO disagree with your assumed 30-year phase shift. The average CYCLE is approximately 27 years, but they vary from 21 to 39 years, so dividing those cycle lengths by two gives an average phase of less than 14 years, with maximum length at almost 19.5 years and minimum length at about 10.5 years. Refer to:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/03/low-frequency-enso-oscillations.html
“The most significant warming regime shifts occur at the start of odd-numbered cycles (1937, 1957, 1977, 1997)”
1937 and 1957 are within a gnats whisker of maximum, where the solar dipole reversal occurs, the big `change of regime` at 1976 is around minimum.
oneuniverse says:
July 6, 2010 at 7:55 pm
Gary – some kind of reference or link would be welcome.
“Thermal Physics”, Kittel & Romer, Freeman, ca. 1981?, especially chapter 4;
“QED”, Feynman, Princeton, ca. ditto.
Nasif Nahle [used to be] a frequent commenter here, is into this stuff- thermodynamics-I seem to recall.
Bob Tisdale:
“The average CYCLE is approximately 27 years”
Each successive CYCLE appears to change PHASE from net global warming to net global cooling.
My meaning is clear whether you like the terminology or not.
Alan Cheetham: Thanks for the link to the Betacourt presentation. You replied, “Take a look at pages 52 and 53 here, referencing work by the same authors, where they show the tree ring proxies at several locations in the US (and most of these areas have a strong correlation to the AMO). What you will see is that the 60 year cycle is persistent back to 1600, although it occasionally shifts by 30 years. (And they state: ‘Strong evidence for multidecadal (30-70 yr) persistence and cross-regional synchrony’)”
The Gray et al (2003) study referenced by Betacourt on pages 52 and 53 is here:
http://www.livingrivers.net/pdfs/Gray%20et%20al.pdf
Gray at al use the combined impacts of the AMO and PDO to determine the drought patterns in the central and southern Rocky Mountains. So the periods you’re referring to are not the AMO alone.
Scrolling to page 56 of Betacourt, they use an illustration of the paleo reconstruction of the AMO back to 1550, which is from Gray et al (2004) the study I linked earlier.
Regards
Stephen Wilde replied. “Each successive CYCLE appears to change PHASE from net global warming to net global cooling.”
No. Each cycle consists of a cool phase and a warm phase. I even broke it down for you by dividing by two. So your assumed periods are off by an average factor of approximately two.
vukcevic July 6, 2010 at 11:31 pm: Thanks for the graphs showing the correlation of AMO and Arctic temps. The AMO also correlates well with Western European and Eastern North American land surface temps, and, therefore, has to be considered when looking at record annual global temperatures over the past few decades.
Regards
@Alan Cheetham,
Thank you for your response. The page of sensitivity analysis results was particularly helpful in getting a handle on how the different options affect the fit on this data set.
Reviewing the Rodionov papers, I realize that I mischaracterized how the regime shift algorithm works. Is it correct to say that (after an optional AR1 estimation and prewhitening stage) the algorithm works from the past forward, greedily proposing new segments each time a sudden change in the data indicates a regime shift and moreover the putative segment looks reasonable when extended to the cutoff length?
My description of splitting down to a cutoff size is based on my experience with other segmentation algorithms that work by recursively scanning segments for additional change-points. But the problem of overfitting is still here. Prewhitening will only remove autocorrelation, not genuine trend, which there is a lot of in the HadCRUT3 data and little of in the PDO data that the Rodionov models were based on. Trends that persist for longer than the cutoff length will likely trigger a segmentation. Since this happens if there’s an outlier in the direction of the trend doesn’t happen if the change is gradual, segmentation ends up being sensitive to a handful of influential points.
I’m not sure if the slope-based models I use (it should be treated as a regime shift model, where the regime determines the response to the time predictor) agree well with known climatic shifts, but they are more parsimonious explanations for the data then models with a constant mean within regimes.
I think that the best comment on our situation is:
You showed one way of making a solar regime/climate connection fall out of the data. I showed that there are other reasonable ways of analyzing the data that don’t produce segmentations that support the connection. It’s up to the folks with mechanistic understanding to find a model that will make a more definite case.
Leif Svalgaard says:
July 6, 2010 at 11:51 pm (Edit)
whatever solar wind interaction changes in the thermosphere and ionosphere does not propagate enough energy to the surface [where we observe climate] to have any noticeable effect.
There has been a heatwave while the solar windspeed has been high over the last couple of weeks. This is not an isolated occurrence of the synchrony of these two phenomena.
Stephen Wilde wrote, “I think you need to ask yourself how simple Trade Wind changes could cause those phase changes without a more fundamental realignment of the air circulation systems caused by larger phenomena than those involved directly in the ENSO cycle itself.”
Since annual to decadal global trade wind variability is a function of ENSO, how do YOU differentiate between variations caused by ENSO and these mysterious “larger phenomenon” you refer to? FYI, aerosols from explosive volcanic eruptions are the only natural factor that has a greater impact on year-to-year changes in global climate than ENSO.
Many studies of the ITCZ cite extratropical and polar causes for latitudinal shifts in the ITCZ. Without the use of data, how do YOU account for the these and how do YOU differentiate their impacts from that of ENSO?
Also, you concluded your July 6, 2010 at 10:58 pm reply to me with, “One can take a horse to water but cannot make it drink.”
Please clarify your intent of that sentence.
Leif Svalgaard says:
July 6, 2010 at 10:34 pm
tallbloke says:
July 6, 2010 at 4:41 pm
We have much to learn.
You can start right now.
It always makes me smile when you adopt the schoolmasterly tone Leif. The way you ‘marked’ the comments of the JGR reviewer who recommended rejection of your critique of McCracken in red ink had me giggling. 🙂
” The onset of an odd-numbered sunspot cycle (1977-78, 1997-98) results in the relative alignment of the Earth’s and the Sun’s magnetic fields (positive North pole on the Sun) allowing greater penetration of the geomagnetic storms into the Earth’s atmosphere. “Twenty times more solar particles cross the Earth’s leaky magnetic shield when the sun’s magnetic field is aligned with that of the Earth compared to when the two magnetic fields are oppositely.”
1937, 1957 and 1976/7 are series Sun/Earth magnetic connection and not parallel, ie. the rising side of an odd cycle is series, and the falling side is parallel, as we have now;
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth's_magnetic_field
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2001/ast15feb_1/
I find that any such changes in climate can be explained far better by changes in solar activity caused by the given configurations of ALL the planets in relation to the Sun, rather than Earth/Sun connectivity issues.
Maud Kipz: good idea. So here’s Hadcrut monthly with regime changes: http://fourdjones.webs.com/h3regimes.png. Interesting to compare with the one in the post.
Don’t like Hadcrut? Here’s UAH: http://fourdjones.webs.com/uahregimes.png
Looks a lot different to me.
Bob Tisdale asked:
“how do YOU differentiate between variations caused by ENSO and these mysterious “larger phenomenon” you refer to?”
An interannual event such as the ENSO cycle is unlikely to itself develop a 30 year phase change from cycle to cycle without a seperate influence.
That other influence need not be mysterious. Internal ocean cycles and external solar cycles would be just fine.
“Many studies of the ITCZ cite extratropical and polar causes for latitudinal shifts in the ITCZ. Without the use of data, how do YOU account for the these and how do YOU differentiate their impacts from that of ENSO?”
I don’t differentiate. I say that the latitudinal shifts of all the air circulation systems not just the ITCZ result from an interaction between underlying ocean cycles and the extratropical and polar causes (probably solar induced). I regard the various multidecadal phase shifts in the oceans (not just the Pacific) as being driven by underlying oceanic cycles. They then interact with extratropical and polar influences to shift the air circulation systems. The resulting changes in the winds modify both El Nino and La Nina. That causes ENSO to show a variation in the relative strengths of El Nino and La Nina at about 30 year intervals which variation is driven by those non ENSO events.
“Also, you concluded your July 6, 2010 at 10:58 pm reply to me with, “One can take a horse to water but cannot make it drink.”
Please clarify your intent of that sentence.”
I just meant that I can show you how your work might be even more influential by linking it to long term global climate changes but I cannot force you to take advantage of that. It was an attempt at wry humour that evidently fell on stony ground.
Slightly OT, but when are they going to update their prediction for SC24? It is looking really bad already.
“changes in solar activity caused by the given configurations of ALL the planets ”
Suspecting your accuracy in this regard, from time to time looked for simple configurations to explain secular spikes in activity, e.g., April-without a eureka moment.
“Ulric Lyons says:
July 7, 2010 at 5:19 am
I find that any such changes in climate can be explained far better by changes in solar activity caused by the given configurations of ALL the planets in relation to the Sun.”
At present I don’t need to go into the reasons why the sun varies. I’m just exploring the implications of the fact that it does and the facts that stratospheric temperatures and air circulation patterns and other things all appear to change at the same time as the sun becomes more or less active.
I’m not inclined to accept as simple coincidence the late 90s reversal of polar oscillations from generally positive to generally negative, jetstream positioning from poleward to more equatorward, solar activity levels from very high to very low, ocean phases from positive to negative, stratosphere temperature trends now warming a little instead of cooling and ozone quantity trends now increasing more than the models anticipated from the reduction in CFCs and no significant tropospheric warming for 15 years now.
Putting all that together I am sure that the comments of Leif and Bob are wholly inadequate.
tallbloke says:
July 7, 2010 at 4:48 am
There has been a heatwave while the solar windspeed has been high over the last couple of weeks. This is not an isolated occurrence of the synchrony of these two phenomena.
from another thread:
ecoeng says:
July 7, 2010 at 4:00 am
For a little light relief from the current exchanges and no doubt those which are yet to come, I am very pleased indeed to report that today 7 July 2010 the town of Alice Springs located in almost the exact centre of the Australian continent experienced the (not yet massaged, not yet adjusted, i.e. strictly for real) coldest day on record since recordings commenced in 1878. The previous coldest day was in August 1966.
Stephen Wilde says:
July 7, 2010 at 1:26 am
So what is the ‘correct’ word for the composite effect of sunspots and solar flares on the solar surface ?
Solar activity
@_tallbloke says:
July 7, 2010 at 4:48 am
There has been a heatwave while the solar windspeed has been high over the last couple of weeks. This is not an isolated occurrence of the synchrony of these two phenomena.
Leif……..
from another thread:
ecoeng says:
July 7, 2010 at 4:00 am
For a little light relief from the current exchanges and no doubt those which are yet to come, I am very pleased indeed to report that today 7 July 2010 the town of Alice Springs located in almost the exact centre of the Australian continent experienced the (not yet massaged, not yet adjusted, i.e. strictly for real) coldest day on record since recordings commenced in 1878. The previous coldest day was in August 1966.
___________________________________________
Yes heatwaves all over the place….
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/06/30/record-cold-down-under/#comment-420180
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp?colour=colour&time=latest&step=0&map=minanom&period=daily&area=nat
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp?colour=colour&time=latest&step=0&map=minanom&period=week&area=nat
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp?colour=colour&time=latest&step=0&map=minanom&period=week&area=nat
some incursions of Antarctic air going on by the looks.