Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
Once again, I return to that endless font of misinformation, the Waxman Markey website. In this case, I look at their claims about Alaska. This one will be short and sweet. Their claim is that Alaska is roasting, as in the picture below:
Figure 1. The dessert known as “flaming baked Alaska”. Ice cream covered with meringue, doused with brandy, and set on fire. Sweet.
The Waxman Markey website page on Alaska says:
Over the past 50 years, Alaska has warmed by 4 to 7 degrees Fahrenheit, much more than anywhere in the lower 48 states. This dramatic temperature change is causing the landscape of Alaska to change faster than anywhere else in the United States, threatening infrastructure, wildlife, and Native Alaskan culture.
I fear that these numbers must from the well-known Government Misinformation Agency.
Figure 2 shows the real numbers:
Figure 2. Alaskan temperatures, as the average of all first-order stations in the state.
There are a few things we can see here. First, Fig. 1 clearly shows the dependence of Alaska temperatures on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The PDO is a long-term shift in Pacific sea surface temperatures. The PDO has a warm phase and a cool phase, as shown in Figure 3. It shifts from one phase to the other every thirty years or so.
Figure 3. Cool (positive) and warm (negative) phases of the PDO. IMAGE SOURCE
The PDO shifted to the cool phase in the late 1940s. It went back to the warm phase in 1976-77. And recently, it has gone back to the cool phase. This is clearly visible in the Alaska temperatures. As much as Waxman Markey wants to blame the shift in Alaskan temperatures on “global warming”, the science says otherwise. The changes are due to the shifts in the PDO.
Second, their claim that Alaska has “warmed by 4 to 7 degrees Fahrenheit” is not true. The largest trend to 2009 in the Alaska temperatures is 1954-2009, which is 3.24 degrees.
I also note that they are using a very different period from the one they used in their claims about the US Northeast, where they used the trend from “the 1970’s”. Obviously, they are picking their time period to exaggerate their claims …
The main point here is that because the PDO gives Alaska warm periods and cool periods, it is meaningless to use any trend starting from a cool period and ending in a warm period, or vice versa. Yes, you can get a positive trend from anywhere on the left half of the graph to anywhere on the right side of the graph … but that doesn’t tell us anything about what’s happening.
Short and sweet.
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Do Alaskans really want it to be cooler?
It’s so obvious there’s money in the malarkey bill. Hopefully, all these blatant lies will force jailings of these fraudsters.
I had examined Markey’s statements on Alaska when he was promoting his House cap-and-trade bill. See this: http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/MarkeyMisleads.htm for details on his mis-representation of Alaska temperatures.
This graph shows Alaska non-warming for the past three decades +.
http://climate.gi.alaska.edu/ClimTrends/Change/7707Change.html
Willis, sorry to pick, but “endless font of misinformation,” should read “endless front of misinformation,”?
Having lived in that north side of hell for 4 years, I can tell you that even if it were 7 degrees F warmer, during the winter, it wouldn’t make one whit of difference.
I’d bet UHI had a lot to do with the increases anyway. Fairly obvious for Anchorage and the like.
I thought the one in the far north might be real. Then I discovered Wiley Post Will Rogers Memorial Airport in Barrow. Do you think it was tarmac 50 years ago?
A composite time series at all 22 1st-order stations in Alaska with a complete record from 1977-2009 shows a DECLINE in temperature over the past 33 years. The green linear least-squares trend line slopes downward which clearly indicates a small DECLINE in temperature from 1977 through 2009:
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/marka/tmean.alaska.annual.1977-2009.gif
The blue line shows the horizontal 33-year mean temperature line.
Hopefully Rep. Markey’s staff will take the time to read the article and comments at WUWT.
-Mark Albright
Post-Normal paregoric salesmen.
One scary thought is that these falsehoods are typical of the law making ‘process’.
It happens that engineers and scientists have become interested in this case and so the dishonesty is slightly more apparent.
What would happen if the lies went unquestioned?
Would health care be ‘reformed’ to the benefit of insurers and lawyers? Would bankers be subsidized to steal taxpayer money? Would wars be started and maintained on false pretexts?
I guess we know the answers to those questions. Depressing.
I’d also point out that every one of those stations is an island of energy using humanity in a sea of coldness.
But, PDO reigns supreme.
Sitka, Alaska from CRU data
http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/TempGr/Sitka.GIF
Can you say: long-term cooling?
Melt the wax and pass the melarkey.
James Sexton says:
June 30, 2010 at 3:17 pm
Willis, sorry to pick, but “endless font of misinformation,” should read “endless front of misinformation,”?
Having lived in that north side of hell for 4 years, I can tell you that even if it were 7 degrees F warmer, during the winter, it wouldn’t make one whit of difference.
_____________________________________________________________________
HMMmm, Perhaps if we move the White House, Congress and all those lobbyists to Fort Yukon Alaska we might get more realistic laws, especially if Congress was only in section during the winter. Oh and make the lobbyist offices at least 10 miles from Congressional Offices. Of course in the interest of saving energy and reducing CO2 lobbyists and Congressmen are all required to walk, not drive cars… Well that is what they want US to do isn’t it???
I used to think that outright lying was not going on, but preferetial, self-serving selection. Now I think that outright lying is going on. It is too easy to get the facts straight, especially when you have staff who do that for you. Lying – or purposeful non-knowing, for political or ideological gain IS going on. “For the greater good”, I suppose the thinking goes, even if it is for the greater good of keeping the money flowing.
Always double check before correcting Willis…lol – especially on the use of English.
Sure, he tosses in a dusty Shakespearean one now and again- just cuz he likes words, which are the tools of cognition- but font is not yclept. It’s in common daily use.
This warming is real. It traces back to the Tesoro sponsored snow machines at the Palins house.
Sigh, ok, missed that one, font for fount. Very nice! 🙂 I was a bit distracted, had comm. probs with my AMR system.
Gail Combs says:
June 30, 2010 at 4:06 pm
Totally agree, I was stuck at a more modern fort, but Yukon would be appropriate, or Greely or Wainwright, Richardson is for whimps, but I doubt they could play there, either. It would do this nation great good if they went up there to convene. “The government that governs least, governs the best.”—–I would attribute that quote, but there’s some discrepancy, Thoreau(circa 1849) has it in print, but I’ve seen it attributed to each Paine, Jefferson and Franklin. Apparently, we’ve forgotten what was common knowledge not only in the world of science, but government and politics, also.
It would appear that Hansen might agree with you on this one.
Or at least a GISS trend map for warming between 1950 and 2009 shows that most of Alaska is covered by the 1-2 deg C zone for warming, which is 1.8-3.6 F.
As for the PDO, a PDO trend from 1950 to 2009 is definitely positive. A PDO trend from 1922 is just barely negative, and a trend from 1950 to 2009 in GISS shows Alaska mostly in the 0.5-1 deg C warming zone.
From 1980 to 2009 the PDO trend is strongly negative. A temperature trend in GISS shows the southern part of Alaska cooling (faster than just about anywhere else in the world on land), and the northern part warming, and this area really stands out as the only area on land that far north that is not dominated by warming (funny enough Yamahl being another one….)
And on UHI, satellite trends show a similar trend globally to GISS (20% lower if you pick Uah from 1980, but closer if you go with RSS, or limit to either UAH or RSS data since 1992 when an instrument change occurred)
Figure 2: the map states at top, degrees F; the caption below states degrees C.
Mark Albright-Are you the Mark Albright, who was fired from your position as Wasington State’s Assistant climatologist by Phil Mote for having the temerity to tell people that the “declining snowpack” claims were not the whole story?
If so, you sir are a true scientific hero, in my opinion.
Steve, how does your graph not show Alaska warming? Looks like the anomalies have been positive this past decade when all the other profound changes (such as the sea ice loss have occurred). Also, why didn’t you include data from 2007-2009? Are you trying to hide even more warming?
Do you really think we’re not going to see past your attempts to hide the warming that is so obvious in the Arctic?
Jefferson certainly believed in small goverment. Two real quotes:
“I own that I am not a friend to a very energetic government. It is always oppressive…”
and…
“I think our governments will remain virtuous for many centuries; as long as they are chiefly agricultural; and this will be as long as there shall be vacant lands in any part of America. When they get piled upon one another in large cities, as in Europe, they will become corrupt as in Europe.”
See here.
Gail Combs says:
June 30, 2010 at 4:06 pm
HMMmm, Perhaps if we move the White House, Congress and all those lobbyists to Fort Yukon Alaska we might get more realistic laws, especially if Congress was only in section during the winter. Oh and make the lobbyist offices at least 10 miles from Congressional Offices. Of course in the interest of saving energy and reducing CO2 lobbyists and Congressmen are all required to walk, not drive cars… Well that is what they want US to do isn’t it???
The better choice is Amchitka. It is an island, best known of underground nuclear bomb testing in the 70’s. Wind that starts at either pole seemingly reaches Amchitka unimpeded. So, it tends to rain sideways there. It really is a beautiful place, but you would never know because the low cloud cover and rain hardly ever stops. You also can’t drive anywhere from there.
So, I say put the whole government in leaking quonset huts on Amchitka. Set up a few gun implacements to sink the lobbyist yaughts, and viola, 15-day congressional sessions with large incentives against grandstanding, long-winded speeches, etc. Maybe we could get some efficiency to start at the top.
sorry, I didn’t mean the bold. one of these days I will learn to blockquote.
JeffBrown,
So quick to try and find fault. You need to direct your questions to the Alaska Climate Research Center – as they are the source of the map – not Stevengoddard. Please let us know what their response is.
@ur momisugly jeff brown says:
June 30, 2010 at 6:05 pm
Far be it from me to to carry Steve’s water, but did you look at the graph? First, that’s not Steve’s. Secondly, it seems to go to 2009. Click on the graph, read the bottom. See, who you can yell at about hiding stuff. Poor dumb Alaskans, they don’t even know how to read their own thermometer. Is that your assertion? Or are you just being unreasonable to Steve? Personally, having lived near the Arctic for a few years, I can tell you that a little warmer up there is a good thing. Weather that’s happening or not, I can’t tell, neither can you. How do I know that? Check where the official thermometer is for that area north of the Arctic. I’d be happy to enlighten you, just ask.