Global Average Sea Surface Temperatures Continue their Plunge
By Dr. Roy Spencer
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) measured by the AMSR-E instrument on NASA’s Aqua satellite continue their plunge as a predicted La Nina approaches. The following plot, updated through yesterday (June 17, 2010) shows that the cooling in the Nino34 region in the tropical east Pacific is well ahead of the cooling in the global average SST, something we did not see during the 2007-08 La Nina event (click on it for the large, undistorted version):
The rate at which the Nino34 SSTs are falling is particularly striking, as seen in this plot of the SST change rate for that region:
To give some idea of what is causing the global-average SST to fall so rapidly, I came up with an estimate of the change in reflected sunlight (shortwave, or SW flux) using our AMSR-E total integrated cloud water amounts. This was done with a 7+ year comparison of those cloud water estimates to daily global-ocean SW anomalies computed from the CERES radiation budget instrument, also on Aqua:
What this shows is an unusually large increase in reflected sunlight over the last several months, probably due to an increase in low cloud cover.
At this pace of cooling, I suspect that the second half of 2010 could ruin the chances of getting a record high global temperature for this year. Oh, darn.
“I suspect that the second half of 2010 could ruin the chances of getting a record high global temperature for this year. Oh, darn.”
I suspect that a new class of thermometers will be added to the rolls. They will be located under the armpits of those scientists on the “good” list. Voolah! Hottest year ever in 2010.
Joe LaLonde,
In the oceans, salinity is not high enough for any crystaline salt to form. Salt dissociates in solution into Na+ and Cl- ions. As such, I highly doubt that salinity plays much of a role in reflectivity of the surface of the ocean. If salt did not dissociate in solution, we could skate on the salt blocks that would be covering the Dead Sea.
Midwest Mark says:
“Maybe I’ll move to Seattle where they have more sunshine.”
You would be sorely disappointed. From today’s Seattle Times:
Sunday was darkest June day in Seattle in 15 years
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2012175164_weather22m.html
I don’t see the same people commenting on this quick cooling who put up many comments on the warming of the first 1/4 of this year.
In air I don’t think droplets of sea-water would evaporate to crystals. I’d have thought, water being a polarized molecule, that each ion would have H2O molecules cluster around. These of course would seed clouds.
Very interesting.
Recommend adding “relative standard deviation” on the right Y axis.
“We are experiencing a major Sunspot minimum. Could it be that the lower energy output from the Sun in the Ultraviolet frequencies and above is NOT warming the upper atmosphere? Could the increased ice crystals also be reflecting energy away from the Earth?”
Seems some titles are earned.
Very interesting Dr. Spencer. I wonder if the temperature differential between the Nino 3.4 area and the rest of the Pacific will induce more energetic/violent cyclones than usual. With a couple of fires going, Roan Plateau, CO and Flagstaff, AZ; I’m seeing a 10-15% reduction in voltage on my PV system, so there’s more sunlight not making it to earth. This coming winter could be interesting.
“During the transition from El Nino to La Nina in 1998, the changes in weekly NINO3.4 SST anomalies were at times almost twice the rate that they are presently changing.”
Oooh, that makes your NA OHC graph so much less frightening. I’ve lost(chasing a toddler, missing meals) 30 lbs. since last La Nina.
What’s the reference point for the anomaly measurement?
tallbloke says:
June 22, 2010 at 12:19 am
Quick work Anthony!
Dr Roy is on the mark, and a very worthwhile mid-month update. The faster the drop, the sooner the bounce will be. I think we’ll see SST’s up again later next year, but to lower levels than this last El nino.
TallBloke,
While I agree that the chances of a quick deep La Nina starting in early fall are looking pretty high. I would guess around 75% IMO. The Pacific Northwest U.S. is already seeing La Nina type weather patterns. I seriously doubt that the system will switch back to El Nino quickly, there is quite a large pool of cold (cooler than normal) water at depth accumulating across the Pacific. Nino 3.4 is cooling rapidly which is not unusual post El Nino, but the large pool of cold water at depth does not appear to be depleting at all while this is going on, in fact the anomaly appears to be slightly increasing even as SSTs drop.
I am curious to see how this plays out, as I don’t recall the last few La Nina’s starting with such a large pool of cold subsurface water. Of course all of this information is a preliminary signal contained in noisy data, and the only thing that is for sure at this time is that everything looks to be in place for a quick transition to La Nina conditions. Most of the Models that I have seen (And don’t get me started on the Models, because most of them are junk IMO) seem to indicated a quick dip to a shallow La Nina and then a return to ENSO neutral early next spring, but then again they are all over the place as usual, no matter what happens, a model will have predicted it.
Tallbloke, getting back to your comment about a quick dip into La Nina conditions and then back to El Nino, I curious, what makes you think that we will be heading back to an El Nino Next year?
Channel 5 is not showing any signs of decreasing anamoly, yet….
Just a quick check on the Oulu Neutron monitor shows a peak of activity from the most-recent summer seasons in both hemispheres.
If the cosmic-ray “cloud-seeding” theory holds, then there are likely to be more clouds.
As the ocean take up a lot of heat during the summer from the sun, greater levels of cloud cover with reduce the takeup of heat. Then, as the southern oceans cool in the longer darkness of the southern winter, the cooling will be deeper than the previous winter’s.
The good news appears to be that the galactic flux is reducing, so there’s a chance of a little more warming in this northern-hemisphere summer than the previous one.
Robert M says:
June 22, 2010 at 7:08 am
Tallbloke, getting back to your comment about a quick dip into La Nina conditions and then back to El Nino, I curious, what makes you think that we will be heading back to an El Nino Next year?
Partly the understanding I’ve developed around the way the ocean absorbs heat from an active sun and relinquishes heat when the sun is low on activity. Also, I see a strong parallel between now and the 1880’s – 1890’s:
http://tallbloke.files.wordpress.com/2010/02/sst-ssn1870.jpg
Green temp curve is modern day
Green sunspot curve is 1880’s.
I don’t think the ‘dead cat bounce’ next year will be a full blown pacific warm pool event. I think we’ll get generally elevated SST’s across wide areas of the globe as the ocean continues to burp out excess energy that got stuffed into it in the second half of the C20th by a hyper active sun.
Read more here if you’re interested:
http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2010/02/06/el-nino-and-the-solar-cycle/
Read about “enhanced CO2 cooling” in the upper atmosphere.
http://www.physorg.com/news196366845.html
Cooling, rather than catastrophic heating? Maybe the science is not settled, after all.
BenAW says:
June 22, 2010 at 1:13 am
Keith Minto says:
June 22, 2010 at 12:24 am
More support for Henrik Svensmark.
Has an increase in cosmic ray intensity been observed lately?
____________________________________________________________________
Yes, Here is the graph
So, if we go here;
http://cosmicrays.oulu.fi/
And plot from 1/1 2010 until now (ask for chart in checkbox) , it seems neutron count has been steadily decreasing since approx 1/1 2010.
That doesnt support cosmic rays support, does it? It does the opposite?
April E. Coggins says:
“You would be sorely disappointed. From today’s Seattle Times:
Sunday was darkest June day in Seattle in 15 years
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2012175164_weather22m.html”
Ugh. Well, my second choice was Honolulu….
Knowing and understanding and accepting that Leif places no special stock in the Oulu monitor, I will mention that current cosmic ray counts remain at high levels, at or above most of the levels seen during the other solar minima Oulu has measured since it began service in 1964:
http://tinyurl.com/2erulnv
Why do most AGW scare stories occur where the population of humans is either zero or near zero.
Glaciers
Antarctic
Arctic
Pacific Island w/ population of near nothing
Mountain tops
Open Ocean
Do you suppose that there is a reason for this? It might be cynical of me but perhaps by using a remote location, one cannot have any context if you are not there.
By reading the stories of how warm the Arctic is getting, It seems it might actually be a nice alternative to Florida.
This natural variation between El Nino and La Nina conditions is always interesting to monitor, as is the current actual sea surface temperature anomalies in the Arctic, as noted here:
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/color_anomaly_NPS_ophi0.png
Lot’s of warmth in the sea surface in the Arctic region, especially on the Atlantic side, and the 60 day project shows growing warmth in the Bering Sea region (La Nina or not).
Forget any preconceptions as no one of us were living during the previous “interesting times” epoch, so all this is not to be taken as usual phenomena. If we are or about witness a new Maunder like minimum, this SST deep dive could indicate that, so let’s see what happens.
BTW this will enrage those in the NON-deniers list.
Joe Bastardi has been predicting this cool down for some time.
http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp
If you need accurate long term weather forecasting, Joe fits the bill.
If you need scary scenarios to raise taxes and funding, try other guys, like Dr. Hansen, or whatever.
Gail Combs says:
June 22, 2010 at 7:45 am
“Has an increase in cosmic ray intensity been observed lately?
Yes, Here is the graph
No, here is the
graph
Harold Ambler says:
June 22, 2010 at 8:36 am
Knowing and understanding and accepting that Leif places no special stock in the Oulu monitor
Leif’s Law states that people pick and present the data that fits their agenda. Here is a less biased view:
http://www.puk.ac.za/fakulteite/natuur/nm_data/data/nmd_e.html
covering a wide range on energies from equatorial to polar stations.