Global Average Sea Surface Temperatures Continue their Plunge
By Dr. Roy Spencer
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) measured by the AMSR-E instrument on NASA’s Aqua satellite continue their plunge as a predicted La Nina approaches. The following plot, updated through yesterday (June 17, 2010) shows that the cooling in the Nino34 region in the tropical east Pacific is well ahead of the cooling in the global average SST, something we did not see during the 2007-08 La Nina event (click on it for the large, undistorted version):
The rate at which the Nino34 SSTs are falling is particularly striking, as seen in this plot of the SST change rate for that region:
To give some idea of what is causing the global-average SST to fall so rapidly, I came up with an estimate of the change in reflected sunlight (shortwave, or SW flux) using our AMSR-E total integrated cloud water amounts. This was done with a 7+ year comparison of those cloud water estimates to daily global-ocean SW anomalies computed from the CERES radiation budget instrument, also on Aqua:
What this shows is an unusually large increase in reflected sunlight over the last several months, probably due to an increase in low cloud cover.
At this pace of cooling, I suspect that the second half of 2010 could ruin the chances of getting a record high global temperature for this year. Oh, darn.
Quick work Anthony!
Dr Roy is on the mark, and a very worthwhile mid-month update. The faster the drop, the sooner the bounce will be. I think we’ll see SST’s up again later next year, but to lower levels than this last El nino.
More support for Henrik Svensmark.
The downside is that the warmer water up in the Arctic is a sitting duck for heat transfer to space come October.
Keith Minto says:
June 22, 2010 at 12:24 am
More support for Henrik Svensmark.
Has an increase in cosmic ray intensity been observed lately?
How low can you go… how low can you go…
tallbloke says:
June 22, 2010 at 12:19 am
Quick work Anthony!
Dr Roy is on the mark, and a very worthwhile mid-month update. The faster the drop, the sooner the bounce will be. I think we’ll see SST’s up again later next year, but to lower levels than this last El nino.
I would guess we will see a fat La Nina for a few years before any new el Nino forms. El ninos and ENSO in general is not the only mechanism for loss of OHC – there is a longer term decrease in OHC underway independent of the shorter term ENS oscillation. But we’ll see, I may be wrong.
Interesting stuff on your website BTW, e.g. the Willie Soon and Duhau & de Jager data.
This cloud effect is exactly what Monckton was getting at in his use of the Pinker paper:
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/sci;308/5723/850
Monckton misused cloud forcing but he was spot on otherwise. I think I’ll mention this at Deltoid; fairminded people that they are they will welcome this development in the AGW debate!
That change rate is stunning. Looks like La Niña is setting up to kick in with a vengeance. Something tells me that this past winter, with only three months of snow, will be something I’ll be looking back on fondly this upcoming winter.
BenAW says:
June 22, 2010 at 1:13 am
Has an increase in cosmic ray intensity been observed lately?
You can use this link from Oulu to find the answer.
http://cr0.izmiran.rssi.ru/oulu/main.htm
But is Dr Spencer on the approved list of scientists ?
So, Since this current cooling is unprecedented, it must be anthropogenic!
At Anthony Watt/ David Archibald Climate Talk in Melbourne today, David A mentioned Roy Spencer’s comments on ocean cooling and predicted there could be a decade of cold weather ahead . I was pleased to be able to attend today’s talk by Anthony and David, a crowded and well received event. Glad to be able to thank Anthony personally for his contribution to evidence based debate on Climate Change. I thought it was somewhat symbolic that today’s event took place at The Institute of Public Enterprise ,as I listened to the accounts of two individuals working independently of consensus to question the data. Hasn’t this always been the case in the history of science? 🙂
“I suspect that the second half of 2010 could ruin the chances of getting a record high global temperature for this year. Oh, darn.”
They’ll just change the way they calculate it, then declare it the hottest year evuh. They just about have to, they’ve all but said it is going to be.
Just another example of one of our planet’s many natural cycles.
The problem is that “natural cycles” are the ultimate heresy to the alarmist community.
Unfortunately for the alarmists, neither the US Congress, nor anyone else, can legislate or tax away natural cycles.
I think James Sexton has it right, the data will be “adjusted”. I have come to the conclusion, reluctantly I might add, that the climate scientists at the centre of alarmism are not above bending the evidence to support their case.
It is my view that the Met Office dropped its long term forecasts not because they kept getting them wrong, but because getting them wrong was undermining the CAGW case.
Why have they kept silence, or defended MBH1998?
Notice that the Sun appears “bluer” through the Earth’s atmosphere. As per SpaceWeather.com, the increased “blue” tint is caused by increased ice crystals in the upper atmosphere. These “Noctilucent” clouds increase during a Sunspot minimum, due to cooling in the upper atmosphere.
We are experiencing a major Sunspot minimum. Could it be that the lower energy output from the Sun in the Ultraviolet frequencies and above is NOT warming the upper atmosphere? Could the increased ice crystals also be reflecting energy away from the Earth?
If lower Sun energy output, and higher reflectivity of the upper atmosphere are occurring, this would easily explain the “sudden” drop in ocean temperatures.
Of course the Sun is NOT variable star, “correct” ?!?! The TSI (Total Solar Irradiance) measurements do not appear to correctly measure TSO (Total Solar Output) that reaches the Earth’s surface.
Dr. Spencer,
Still not looking into salinity changes?
Salt being a crystal HAS reflective abilities especially when they concentrate on the ocean surface. It can also inhibit evaporation trends.
http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=12455&tid=282&cid=897
Since we have had no MASSIVE evaporation to explain the salt changes to the surface, the cause must be atmospheric. This could be changing pressure on a rotational basis that the atmosphere is stretching due to gases building up from a environmental growth of plant and animal life. Growth up mountains shows that the gases and heat are expanding.
Leon Brozyna says: “That change rate is stunning. ”
It’s nothing unusual. During the transition from El Nino to La Nina in 1998, the changes in weekly NINO3.4 SST anomalies were at times almost twice the rate that they are presently changing.
http://i49.tinypic.com/xfw7lk.jpg
What is the suspected cause of the increased low cloud cover?
phlogiston says: “El ninos and ENSO in general is not the only mechanism for loss of OHC – there is a longer term decrease in OHC underway independent of the shorter term ENS oscillation.”
The vast majority of the recent drop in OHC is in the North Atlantic:
http://i50.tinypic.com/2eexa8w.png
Note that the linear trend of the South Atlantic OHC is almost 1.5 to 2 times the trends of the “non-Atlantic” ocean basins. And the North Atlantic is about 3 to 4 times as high. One would think that the scientific community would see the disparity and conclude that the North Atlantic OHC is impacted by the same multidecadal process as SST: AMOC. But do we ever hear about it? Nope.
The above graph is from my post:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2010/02/ohc-linear-trends-and-recent-update-of.html
Joe Lalonde says:
June 22, 2010 at 4:39 am
The WHOI report discusses salinity – salt in solution – and says nothing about salt crystals. Being an ionic crystal, salts break completely break apart in solution. You might be able to make a case about salt crystals being formed in salt water spray that evaporates, but I can’t imagine salt crystals on the surface of the ocean. Are you thinking perhaps of sea foam?
Please provide references!
Joe Lalonde says:
June 22, 2010 at 4:39 am
Growth up mountains shows that the gases and heat are expanding.
Well a lot of hot air is being expended by alarmists I’d agree, but if the treeline in places like Scandinavia is heading back up the hill towards where it was at the warmer end of the holocene a few thousand years ago, I don’t see much reason to be displeased. Better than being engulfed by the next ice age IMO.
>Ozzie John:
>You can use this link from Oulu to find the answer.
>http://cr0.izmiran.rssi.ru/oulu/main.htm
Why not go directly to actual source?
http://cosmicrays.oulu.fi/
BenAW says:
June 22, 2010 at 1:13 am
“More support for Henrik Svensmark.”
Has an increase in cosmic ray intensity been observed lately?
No, it has been decreasing steadily.
The $100,000 dollar question is: What does this mean for the second half of the year? How will regional weather be affected by this? Which regions will be drier and which regions will be wetter? I really enjoyed the warmer, drier El Nino conditions here in Ohio. It seems that now we can’t shut off the clouds and rain. Maybe I’ll move to Seattle where they have more sunshine.