National power grids could overheat and air travel severely disrupted while electronic items, navigation devices and major satellites could stop working after the Sun reaches its maximum power in a few years.
Senior space agency scientists believe the Earth will be hit with unprecedented levels of magnetic energy from solar flares after the Sun wakes “from a deep slumber” sometime around 2013, The Daily Telegraph can disclose.
In a new warning, Nasa said the super storm would hit like “a bolt of lightning” and could cause catastrophic consequences for the world’s health, emergency services and national security unless precautions are taken.
Scientists believe it could damage everything from emergency services’ systems, hospital equipment, banking systems and air traffic control devices, through to “everyday” items such as home computers, iPods and Sat Navs.
Due to humans’ heavy reliance on electronic devices, which are sensitive to magnetic energy, the storm could leave a multi-billion pound damage bill and “potentially devastating” problems for governments.
“We know it is coming but we don’t know how bad it is going to be,” Dr Richard Fisher, the director of Nasa’s Heliophysics division, said in an interview with The Daily Telegraph.
“It will disrupt communication devices such as satellites and car navigations, air travel, the banking system, our computers, everything that is electronic. It will cause major problems for the world.
“Large areas will be without electricity power and to repair that damage will be hard as that takes time.”
The risk has always been there. The pretension that it will be especially likely in 2013 is hilarious though. Someone is in desperate need for extra funding.
♫
♫Money … ♫
♫We need money … ♫
♫We need lots and lots of money … ♫
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“tallbloke says:
The last time this was discussed here, Leif Svalgaard said:
“The danger is real”
Leif is not a man given to unwarranted speculation or flights of fancy.
He also said it’s a matter of when not if we would be hit by a big one similar to the Carrington flare in the 1850′s
He also said that such a flare might be expected to hit Earth once every 150 years or so.”
I’m beginning to wonder if there are PhD’s in alarmism. This seems to be such a standard line. Like when I saw a programme on the Yellowstone Mega volcano it went something like: How often does it go off? About every half million years (or whatever). When did it last go off? A little over half a million years ago, we’re overdue for another one now!
Head for the hills!
Keep that old clunker computer, radio and phone handy. The only cars available will be the pre-computer chip models.
While NASA has had to cope with Solar Storm proofing thier stuff, the rest of the world has not.
The next big one after waking up from Deep Solar Slumber does not even have to be at the 1859 level.
The microcircuitry of today is totally vulnerable.
The cost of the AGW head-fake is telling here… we are not prepared not will we be preparing any time soon.
It’s a real shame that NASA has been reduced from an enterprise of optimism, energy, and scientific advancement, to a purveyor of catastrophic alarmism.
Did you guys know that this solar mega flare (or whatever) is going to be so much worse because of all the extra CO2 that is now in the atmosphere because of evil human beans?
I don’t know how or why but I know somebody who does…
Should w0uld be cheaper, and perhaps more fun, if we all just got a case of likker and sit around the campfire and tell ghost stories. Humans love to scare themselves. Always have.
I would remind everyone that at the end of the Boy Who Cried Wolf, there was a real wolf. I told everyone I knew to relax about Y2K, and I have never bought AGW, but I worry about this. Here is a link with more info.
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/press/WashPost/Horizon/196l-031099-idx.html
will not happen…the world ends in 2012 not 2013, mayan calendar told me so.
All they do is recycle the same story every 11-12 years. I remember reading a similar article about cycle #22 over 20 years ago in school…
“…without power ….”
I think this what the AGW mob want. Maybe JH and AG lunched a secrete mission to trigger the event…. /stupid humor off
Don’t forget though, this guys want to pump sulphur to the atmosphere!
🙁
NPR does this on a regular basis, it’s called a “Fund Raiser”. Charitable organizations have bake sales and raffles. I guess bake sales are a little low class for NASA….
I have been looking at this for a couple of years now. From study of larger solar storms in this list: http://www.solarstorms.org/SRefStorms.html
compared to minimums with longer spotless periods: http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/Spotless/Spotlessoverview.png
there is up to 10 times the chance of large solar storms, in maximums following quiet minimums.
The heliocentric distribution of particularly the inner planets, is critical as to when solar storms occur, and so likey times for these events can be determined.
We discussed this some months ago in another context and there is a definite precedent-the Carrington event of 1859
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859
I had a small amount of discussion with Leif about it who said it was likely to happen again and the consequences would be disastrous.
I have some connections with some UK Government agencies and asked what they had done to prevent such an eventuality-obviously our modern lifestyle is far more prone to electrical disasters than in 1859.
They knew nothing whatsoever of the Carrington event and were very much fixated on the consequences of climate change. It certainly would be posible to ‘shield’ important infrastructure and arguably all new installations should be so protected. This would still leave many parts of our lifestyle in serious danger though so again, arguably, this should go right to the top of the disasters agenda as another Carrington event is far more likely to occur, and be far more devaststing, than any man made -and largely imaginary-CO2 induced disaster.
As a species it sems we have difficulty in keeping more than one or two balls in the air at one time and all our efforts are being used to juggle a giant ball labelled CAGW which has the additional problem of being practically invisible.
Tonyb
What is sometimes forgotten is the value of all of these alarming predictions. When we know what is likely to happen we can plan for it to either stop it or to straighten things out afterwards. So if for example we are warned in advance of the risk of an undersea oil blow out producing mega pollution like the world has never seen before we can…
Oh wait a minute. Ignore all that. Let’s go on preparing for lots of other disasters. Nothing to see here, move along please.
No problem. Just build a giant Faraday cage around the entire planet. Then sit out back and watch the auroral display.
I think what Dr Richard Fisher is refering to is a Carrington Event.
http://www.futurepundit.com/archives/006079.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859
Not if but when!
This is what happens when NASA gets all its funding from the National Geographic Channel…it does doesn’t it?
March 13th 1989. Only 21 years ago! A good chunk of Canada’s eastern region was without power for three days. This was due to a mighty geo-mag storm seen world-wide. This was on the upswing of SSC 22. A memorable maximum that produced that great storm and several others that will live long in the memory of those fortunate enough to see them.
From a graph supplied by Leif in an earlier posting the Solar Flare Index showed a pronounced drop throughout SSC 23. Nothing that I have seen since suggests that there has been a dramatic upturn in the frequency of solar flares, so why would Nasa insist on this scare-mongering?
I live on a flood plain that experienced a supposedly 1 in 250 year event just six years ago. If a scientist publicised the likelihood that we are in for another “big one,” around here anytime soon, people would rightly ask, “On what do you base this statement?” Natural events like the one that Nasa is throwing out to the general public do not fit neatly into the numbers we humans try to place on them.
If all of the indicators were actually being observed to head alarmingly upwards then we would have no problem with this at all. When we see all of the indicators well below the recent average then we should find this announcement by Nasa completely unwarranted, and unnecessary, or as the British Prime Minister recently said about a completely different topic, “Unjustified & unjustifiable!”
I’m with Tonyb on this one, and first saw this with the ’89 flare event when I was managing some satellite capacity. Carrington event was a bigger storm and would cause a lot more damage and disruption. I’ve had similar discussions regarding CNI and similar repsonses. Some saw EMP weapons as a threat but overlooked natural EMP from flares. Or an assumption that fibre networks would be protected, ignoring sensitive amp, regen or muxes that could be affected, or just grid power feeding them.
As Tonyb says, we’re more dependent on technology than in 1859 and much of it isn’t well shielded, so I think this is a real threat. No idea how probable another Carrington would be, but at least we have SOHO watching now.
NASA recycling a press release they did only two years ago – same story different angle.
Even the last press release included material from a study that a retired Naval physicist – James A. Marusek authored the year before
read the Study in PDF format here
Mr Marusek ‘s study detailed the technical details of an event similar to the Carrington Flare and the effects on modern society. The paper itself us very sobering.
Who knows if an event such as this will happen in 2013? No one. NASA conjecture? The only certainty is that will happen sooner or later.
My old ’80’s diesel Mercedes is ready and waiting in the garage.
I read this prediction once in a novel, fiction…
SOLARFLARE by Larry Burkett (1997)
Interesting read.
“Even a below-average cycle is capable of producing severe space weather,” points out Biesecker. “The great geomagnetic storm of 1859, for instance, occurred during a solar cycle of about the same size we’re predicting for 2013.”
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2009/29may_noaaprediction/
There is no end to the doom and gloom recently. Our masters understand well the power of fear. Be scared of this, be scared of that.
Time to tell our masters: Be scared of us!
This story is yet another thing for us to be scared of. Oh, booo hooo, I’m gonna hide under the bed till I die.
Is there more than one NASA? I’ve just checked the official NASA site and can no mention of this impending doom, neither under information for the public, for educators, policymakers nor media. I’ve checked the archives, but can’t find anything. Are the sources for this story secure?