By Steven Goddard
From The Declining Spring Snowcover Department
Yesterday afternoon, the Cache La Poudre River set its June 12 stream flow record flowing through Fort Collins, Colorado. At 1:30 and 2:45 PM, the river hit 5,600 cubic feet per second, which broke the previous record of 5,540 feet per second set in 1983. This is normally the week of peak flow for the year.
USGS 06752260 2010-06-12 10:15 MDT 8.00 3770 USGS 06752260 2010-06-12 10:30 MDT 8.02 3790 USGS 06752260 2010-06-12 10:45 MDT 8.19 4010 USGS 06752260 2010-06-12 11:00 MDT 8.26 4110 USGS 06752260 2010-06-12 11:15 MDT 8.41 4310 USGS 06752260 2010-06-12 11:30 MDT 8.49 4420 USGS 06752260 2010-06-12 11:45 MDT 8.65 4650 USGS 06752260 2010-06-12 12:00 MDT 8.68 4690 USGS 06752260 2010-06-12 12:15 MDT 8.73 4770 USGS 06752260 2010-06-12 12:30 MDT 8.88 4990 USGS 06752260 2010-06-12 12:45 MDT 9.00 5170 USGS 06752260 2010-06-12 13:00 MDT 9.02 5200 USGS 06752260 2010-06-12 13:15 MDT 9.04 5230 USGS 06752260 2010-06-12 13:30 MDT 9.27 5600 USGS 06752260 2010-06-12 13:45 MDT 9.21 5500 USGS 06752260 2010-06-12 14:00 MDT 9.22 5520 USGS 06752260 2010-06-12 14:15 MDT 9.18 5450 USGS 06752260 2010-06-12 14:30 MDT 9.25 5570 USGS 06752260 2010-06-12 14:45 MDT 9.27 5600 USGS 06752260 2010-06-12 15:00 MDT 9.25 5570 USGS 06752260 2010-06-12 15:15 MDT 9.24 5550 USGS 06752260 2010-06-12 15:30 MDT 9.25 5570 USGS 06752260 2010-06-12 15:45 MDT 9.19 5470 USGS 06752260 2010-06-12 16:00 MDT 9.19 5470 USGS 06752260 2010-06-12 16:15 MDT 9.15 5410 USGS 06752260 2010-06-12 16:30 MDT 9.18 5450 USGS 06752260 2010-06-12 16:45 MDT 9.04 5230
http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwisweb/data/img/USGS.06752260.04.00060..20100605.20100612.log.0.p50.gif
The height maxed out at 9.27 feet
http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwisweb/data/img/USGS.06752260.02.00065..20100605.20100612..0.p50.gif
I took some video of it on Tuesday when it was at 4,000 cfs.
The flood was the result of a long, cold, snowy winter/spring – followed by a week of hot weather – followed by 48 hours of heavy rain and snow in the mountains. More heavy rain is forecast over the next 24 hours.
Since the start of the water year (Oct. 1) Colorado has been very cold.
http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/hprcc/WaterTDeptHPRCC.png
Two weeks ago, The Huffington Post reported :
Global Warming Study Predicts Hotter, Drier Summers In Colorado
Unfortunately, we didn’t have a summer last year. It was cold and rained all summer long. This weekend’s high temperature has been 51F.
http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/hprcc/JJA09TDeptHPRCC.png
———————————————————————————————————————-
“Some people just don’t know when to quit”
It has been pouring rain all night and it may exceed the June 21, 1983 record, but will probably not beat the April 30, 1999 mark – which was 10.46 ft, and 7,710 cfs
[and title now corrected ~ ctm]
Please don’t allow the facts to taint a perfectly good hoax. Your government is here to help:
http://www.fws.gov/pacific/Climatechange/changepnw.html
I forecast a drop in the solar signal, and increased N.Hemisphere rain from around the 8th june.
Spain and Pakistan had large floods;
http://www.dartmouth.edu/~floods/Currentt.htm
In the UK on the 8th a.m. it was like heavy tropical rain.
The fact that it is warm somewhere on the planet apparently proves that the Poudre isn’t flooding.
Climate Science 101
bubbagyro says:
June 13, 2010 at 10:14 am
I thought the sarcasm was clear: we in Greece are hot so it is climate, you are cold so it is weather.
Btw 30 years was decided to be a good averaging time for climate, long before the AGW stunt. I think it was a meteorological meeting sometime ago.
Scott, your guess is correct. More total precipitation, more concentrated into “extreme precipitation events” is expected. There may be *some* places that get drier, but that will be based on regional topography and will be the exception to the overall trend. A statistical trend towards more extreme precipitation events has been documented.
John G. Bell says:
June 13, 2010 at 9:55 am Mid June and we have heavy snow falls in southern Wyoming….
jesus and i thought our weather has been bad!
as we’ve had about a grand total 7 days meltweather our snowpack is going nowhere fast. Still 25″ of water up there, from a late may peak of 40″
the sierra crest still looks like winter. a good winter. and as the migrating deer can’t get to the high country, the highways are a mess. our district caltrans pulled 15 carcasses in less than two weeks. one day alone three people hit deer just on the way to work. that’s a lot of property damage.
and we’re still having fires to keep the house warm!
GFW says: June 13, 2010 at 11:48 am
“A statistical trend towards more extreme precipitation events has been documented.”
Prove it.
Scott, you aren’t wrong. The problem is, that for many years the Warmers told us, and still do, that a warmer planet will be droughts for everyone. The Skeptics have always tried to say that a warmer planet will be good, because it will increase rainfall. Of course, til the recent winter, they told us we were crazy saying such a thing.
What does increased rainfall do to the rate of heat transfer to the upper troposphere? (if that’s the right word).
I guess it should push heat up due latent heat of condensation and /or freezing: any ideas as to whether this would increase heat loss to space, ultimately, and so be a negative feedback?
Not sure where to start looking for info on this. may be a trivial issue, but some storms are quite big (British euphemism for huge)
GFW says:
June 13, 2010 at 11:48 am
A statistical trend towards more extreme precipitation events has been documented.
And my overwhelming abilities as a Love God have been documented too.
Oh wow! They’ve just been documented again! Just a paragraph ago!
Isn’t that amazing?! [/sarc off]
Steven, what does 1983, 1999 and 2010 all have in common?
Keith at hastings UK says:
June 13, 2010 at 2:20 pm
What does increased rainfall do to the rate of heat transfer to the upper troposphere? (if that’s the right word).
I guess it should push heat up due latent heat of condensation and /or freezing: any ideas as to whether this would increase heat loss to space, ultimately, and so be a negative feedback?
Not sure where to start looking for info on this. may be a trivial issue, but some storms are quite big (British euphemism for huge)
There is an IR picture of one of the hurricanes leaving a giant cool streak in the middle of the Atlantic – but I can’t seem to find it at the moment.
MikeC
I had birthdays in all three of those years. What else did they have in common?
stevengoddard says:
June 13, 2010 at 4:10 pm
MikeC
I had birthdays in all three of those years. What else did they have in common?
el nino giving way to la nina?
Here in NW Calif., the Transylvania Alps weather is finally gone, replaced by mid 80’s to 90 degrees. Still in the low 40’s at night. A cooldown is in the forecast. The mulberry trees are usually out in mid April. Just started to bloom this week.
Wheat, oats and barley 6′ high. Anise 12′ tall and still shooting up.
Overall weather pattern for this year resembles 1998.
4 hours ago a landslide in British Columbia destroyed 10 homes.
http://news.ca.msn.com/top-stories/cbc-article.aspx?cp-documentid=24562317
A few months ago the British Columbia Minister of Forests said we are in for a hot dry summer and lots of forest fires, because he “believes in climate change.”.
The area that just had the land slide had 4 times the average amount of rain for May.
rbateman says:
June 13, 2010 at 4:52 pm
‘Wheat, oats and barley 6′ high. Anise 12′ tall and still shooting up.
Overall weather pattern for this year resembles 1998.’
Boy, you got big ole plants in NW CA -what height does that anise stop at?
We are still hoping Oregon wheat will recover from rust. It is expected that state wide, we could see a 20% reduction in yield with as much as 50% in some harder hit areas. Too much rain, too humid and cool to allow crops to dry out between downpours.
Prairie Crops Drowning
Lauren Davis
Saturday, June 12, 2010
Wet weather will put a significant damper on Canadian grain crops.
Fields are so soggy, it’s estimated that 3 to 5 million hectares could go unseeded in Western Canada.
Saskatchewan has been the hardest-hit province thus far.
Greg Marshall of the Agricultural Producers Association says muddy conditions like the ones being seen in the prairies are abnormal.
He predicts wheat crops could produce their lowest yields in almost 40 years.
http://www.cfra.com/?cat=3&nid=73739
or here also:
http://www.edmontonjournal.com/news/todays-paper/spring+holds+seeding+year/3146289/story.html
The El Nino to La Nina transition occurred in 1998, not 1999.
I live in Breckenridge, CO, and since 2005 I’ve skied so much deeeeep powder, so often, every season, that I’ve lost track of all those glorious powder days. If that’s a result of global warming, then bring on the warming! Furthermore, each of the five summers I’ve spent in Breck have been cool and wet. No drought. Plenty of water. The surrounding forests where I mt. bike regularly are moist and actually lush in many areas. Last October A-Basin ski area had its earliest opening ever and Loveland ski area had its second earliest opening ever. More evidence of global warming? In 2008 I skied waist deep powder in May, and in 2010 I again skied waist deep in May-The heat is making it snow in May! Colorado ski areas are not seeing shorter seasons, lack of snow, rising snow-levels or any of the other dire predictions made by the climate alarmists. In fact, ski seasons are still six months long, snowfall hasn’t diminished, and temperatures are frigid during winter, and cool during the in-between winter months. I know, I live in it.
Any stats on the larger Colorado river basin watershed?
Breckite
You might appreciate this article.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/01/30/debunking-nwf-claims-part-2/
hunter says: June 14, 2010 at 5:39 am
Any stats on the larger Colorado river basin watershed?
Today these three stations are all above the 90th percentile, and all are within 25 miles of one another, Glenwood Springs being furthest downstream:
Gypsum, CO : 3,270CFS Dotsero, CO : 10,800CFS Glenwood Springs : 14,600CFS
I think they removed the flood warning yeserday, 6/13. I Drove from Glenwood to Denver and back yesterday and saw the Colorado out of its banks in the Glenwood Canyon, the bike trail was closed due to water from the river being on it.
Real time watershed flows in Colorado here:
http://co.water.usgs.gov/
I was watching the local news (www.9news.com) late last week (Thursday’ish) in the middle of the heat and one of the news anchors (not the weather person) stated with the heat, all the snow which is normally around until the fourth of July would be gone three to four weeks early. The problem with his statement is, we are already three weeks out from 7/4 and there is still snow. As a matter of fact, our mountains above 9500 feet had snow.
The snow might completely melt just before the fourth of July, but there is no way it is going to be gone this week, much less last week…