Bob Tisdale on Climate Change and Global Warming Blog
By Bob Tisdale
Thursday, June 10, 2010
La Niña Is Not The Opposite Of El Niño – The Videos
http://i46.tinypic.com/2zqznnn.jpg
Figure 1 – Sample Animation – Not Used In Video
Recently, I began animating maps that represent 12-month averages of “noisy” datasets with good results. The weather noise and seasonal variations are gone, for the most part. The 12-month-averaged TLT anomaly maps present a much “smoother” animation, as shown in the .gif sample, Figure 2.
http://i48.tinypic.com/2gt6slz.jpg
Figure 2 – Sample Of Animation Used In Video
In the video, I liken the effect to smoothing the data in a time-series graph with a 12-month filter, Figure 3.
http://i48.tinypic.com/160wk1w.jpg
Figure 3 – Smoothed Time-Series Graph
VIDEO DESCRIPTION
The following 2-part video series provides detailed descriptions, time-series graphs, and animations of the processes that take place during El Niño and La Niña events. It uses TLT, SST, Total Cloud Amount, Sea Level, and Downward Shortwave Radiation anomalies to help illustrate the significant differences between the 1997/98 El Niño and the 1998/99/00/01 La Niña.
The videos also help illustrate why the effects of ENSO cannot be removed from the global surface temperature record by simply subtracting scaled and lagged NINO3.4 SST anomalies (or another ENSO index) from global temperature anomalies. There are significant residuals that contribute to global temperature anomaly trends, and these residuals are not accounted for with the simple methods used in climate studies such as Thompson et al (2009). Link (with paywall) to Thompson et al (2009):
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2009JCLI3089.1
I’ve also included animations that compare global SST anomalies with the other datasets. A sample frame that compares SST and TLT anomalies is shown in Figure 4. To indicate the timing of the maps as they proceed from El Niño to La Niña, many of the animations also include time-series graphs that fill in as time progresses.
http://i49.tinypic.com/2yl22bk.jpg
Figure 4 – Sample Frame From Animation Of Two Datasets
THE VIDEOS
Please view the animations full screen and, if possible, in high definition.
Part 1
YouTube Link
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Et3wjKKCy5o
####################
Part 2
YouTube Link
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A6bmb8hi6u0
SOURCES AND DATASETS
The maps were created using the map-making feature of the KNMI Climate Explorer, which was also used for the data in the time-series graphs.
http://climexp.knmi.nl/selectfield_obs.cgi?someone@somewhere
The primary SST and SST anomaly data used in the animations and graphs are NOAA/Reynolds Optimum Interpolation (OI.v2) SST.
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/cmb/sst_analysis/
For the comparison to tropical Pacific Ocean Heat Content, a longer-term SST dataset was required, and for that graph, I used Kaplan/Reynolds (OI.v2) NINO3.4 SST anomalies from the Monthly climate indices webpage of the KNMI Climate Explorer. Link to Kaplan overview:
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/guide/Data/kaplan_sst.html
The other datasets used in the videos are also available through the KNMI Climate Explorer and they include:
1. International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) Total Cloud Amount data. Link:
http://isccp.giss.nasa.gov/projects/flux.html
2. CAMS-OPI [Climate Anomaly Monitoring System (“CAMS”) and OLR Precipitation Index (“OPI”)] precipitation data. Link:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/global_precip/html/wpage.cams_opi.html
3. RSS MSU Lower Troposphere Temperature (TLT) anomalies. Link:
http://www.remss.com/msu/msu_data_description.html
4. CLS (AVISO) Sea Level anomalies. Link:
http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/en/news/ocean-indicators/mean-sea-level/
5. NCEP/DOE Reanalysis-2 Surface Downward Shortwave Radiation Flux (dswrfsfc) anomalies. Link:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/wesley/reanalysis2/kana/reanl2-1.htm
There is also an animation of the Equatorial Subsurface Temperature Cross-sections that are available through the ECMWF website:
The Trade Wind Index (5S-5N, 135W-180) Anomaly data is available through the NOAA CPC website. Scroll down to the second grouping for the anomaly data:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/data/indices/wpac850
FURTHER DISCUSSIONS
The first detailed posts on the multiyear aftereffects of El Nino events are:
Can El Nino Events Explain All of the Global Warming Since 1976? – Part 1
And:
Can El Nino Events Explain All of the Global Warming Since 1976? – Part 2
And:
Supplement To “Can El Nino Events Explain All Of The Warming Since 1976?”
And:
Supplement 2 To “Can El Nino Events Explain All Of The Warming Since 1976?”
The impacts of these El Nino events on the North Atlantic are discussed in:
There Are Also El Nino-Induced Step Changes In The North Atlantic
And:
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Data
The Lower Troposphere Temperature (TLT) anomaly responses are discussed in:
RSS MSU TLT Time-Latitude Plots… Show Climate Responses That Cannot Be Easily Illustrated With Time-Series Graphs Alone
And:
El Ninos Create Step Changes in TLT of the Northern Hemisphere Mid Latitudes
The misrepresentation of ENSO in climate studies are discussed in the following (The discussions are similar but there are differences in the presentation):
Climate Studies Misrepresent The Effects Of El Nino And La Nina Events
And:
The Relationship Between ENSO And Global Surface Temperature Is Not Linear
And:
Multiple Wrongs Don’t Make A Right, Especially When It Comes To Determining The Impacts Of ENSO
And:
Regression Analyses Do Not Capture The Multiyear Aftereffects Of Significant El Nino Events.”
Posts related to the effects of ENSO on Ocean Heat Content are here:
ENSO Dominates NODC Ocean Heat Content (0-700 Meters) Data
And:
North Atlantic Ocean Heat Content (0-700 Meters) Is Governed By Natural Variables
And:
North Pacific Ocean Heat Content Shift In The Late 1980s
Detailed technical discussions can be found here:
More Detail On The Multiyear Aftereffects Of ENSO – Part 1 – El Nino Events Warm The Oceans
And:
More Detail On The Multiyear Aftereffects Of ENSO – Part 2 – La Nina Events Recharge The Heat Released By El Nino Events AND…During Major Traditional ENSO Events, Warm Water Is Redistributed Via Ocean Currents.
And:
Posted by Bob Tisdale at 9:32 AM
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Thanks, Anthony.
Let me answer a question that has already been asked about the post, with hope of heading off repeats. The question: “If both El Nino and La Nina result in warming of the East Indian/West Pacific Ocean, how can these basins cool?”
The East Indian And West Pacific Ocean dataset isn’t an isolated, stand-alone basin. Those portions of the oceans are constantly mixing with the adjacent portions of the North and South Pacific and Indian Oceans. They also don’t remain elevated after the cumulative effect of an El Nino and La Nina event; that is, they aren’t rising and staying at a new level indefinitely. There is decay in the temperature, but when they are elevated, they are adding to the temperature of the adjoining parts of the ocean basins.
One thing is certain: there are ENSO residuals that are not accounted for using the methods of Thompson et al, and those residuals add to the positive trend.
Bob, you describe a plausible set of related cycles. However, you seem to need to do difficult things, like push warm water to depth, so it can later rise to give surface heat. Such cycles cannot continue forever because they consume energy.
I’m confused (my fault) as to whether you are describing a closed heat system, where the mechanism is geographic redistribution of what is available, or a more open system where heat can be taken in and given out from the globe. If additional heat can be taken in, what is its source?
Please snip if I’m failing to comprehend.
A fine piece of work with lots to chew on.
I assume those all important residuals would include variable interactions between the different ocean basins as energy is moved over time from equatorial regions to the poles.
The question of causation remains open however and in particular the question as to whether the ENSO phenomenon is itself a climate driver causing air circulation changes or whether the air circulation changes drive ENSO.
It might be a combination of the two as ocean variability affects the atmosphere from the equator whilst as I propose elsewhere solar variability affects the atmosphere from the poles with ENSO likely to be part of the global climate response.
In oder to account for longer air circulation changes over the period from MWP to LIA and then to date I think we need to attribute a climate forcing ability to the oceans themselves possibly via small variations in the temperature of the water along the horizontal route of the thermohaline circulation.
Thanks Bob – a thorough piece of work that I’ll look into in greater detail later. First thing that struck me is that, just like this year, the 1997/8 El Nino brought much warmer-than-usual temperatures to Canada. Is there a known mechanism for this (I’m guessing the Kuroshio current is made warmer by ENSO)?
Has El Nino link to the Earth’s magnetic field changes ?
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC20.htm
Nice work, Bob. It was fascinating to see the animated map side by side with the animated graph.
Bob-
This is a fantastic video! The visualizations provide an excellent tool to help understand the changes in ocean surface temperatures and, in particular, sea level. Thanks for all of your work on this!
This is really good – tying a lot of impacts together into a more comprehensive view. I like bringing the cloudiness and the impact of solar short-wave radiation into the picture (and I note that out-going long-wave radiation is also part of this same issue).
I think you are right that there are differences in the impact/changes from a La Nina versus an El Nino and it is not a one-for-one opposite.
One thing which might be part of the way you explained the recharge/discharge idea is that we have not had what would be described as a Super-La Nina. It looks like there are least 5 Super El Ninos in the record back to 1862 but there are no Super La Ninas. Maybe the recharge/discharge idea places a limit on that.
Bob, your series of posts, graphs, and animations are a most important contribution to our understanding of both weather and climate — and the insignificance of greenhouse gases. For some reason, the material you present has been difficult for me to understand even though I read every post. These two animations work for my untrained mind better than anything else. I am grateful for your soldiering on and on and on. One of these days a large number of readers will be fully educated re El Nino and La Nina. I am still working at it. Thanks.
This is top class work which will take some time to digest. Well done Bob, and thanks for sharing all your efforts.
So, given enough time and El Nino’s and La Nina’s (they are not opposing ends of the sine any more?) the Earth residually turns into Venus.
I don’t know what else to conclude from all this.
One of the crucial questions is, is the theoretically calculated IR “backradiance” from “greenhouse gases” able to increase the SST/OHC? Because the oceans do not follow the air temperature, but they rule the temperature of air, and also sea ice cover, air circulation, you name it.
If there is no physical mechanism, how the theoretically calculated tiny excess of downward IR warms the oceans, the whole theory is bunk.
Here’s what the Australian Govn’t says about ENSO and Nino/Nina:
As of June 9 th: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
Great post Bob. The filtered/smoothed images in the video are a great innovation. Was this your idea or are others doing this as well?
Some questions:
1. Are there some unique physical characteristics of the PWP area (like ocean depth, etc.) which make this area of the tropical Pacific more “warmable”, and therefore more prone to variability (due to tsi or cloud variability)?
2. Would detrended SST’s still leave these ENSO residuals?
Bob Tisdale,
I think it’s time for you to publish your work in a peer reviewed journal.
Your attention to details is bringing you where Thompson and Jones can’t never get.
rbateman says: “So, given enough time and El Nino’s and La Nina’s (they are not opposing ends of the sine any more?) the Earth residually turns into Venus.
I don’t know what else to conclude from all this.”
They are opposing climate variables for most of the globe. Occasionally, they result in a cumulative response over approximately 25% of the global oceans. But keep in mind, as I noted in a comment above, the East Indian And West Pacific Ocean dataset isn’t an isolated, stand-alone basin. Those portions of the oceans are constantly mixing with the adjacent portions of the North and South Pacific and Indian Oceans. They also don’t remain elevated after the cumulative effect of an El Nino and La Nina event; that is, they aren’t rising and staying at a new level indefinitely. There is decay in the temperature, but when they are elevated, they are adding to the temperature of the adjoining parts of the ocean basins.
When there is a LA NIÑA, there is not a southward warm current running along the northern coasts of Peru, instead the usual Humboldt´s current running from antarctica northwards along the west southamerican coast. Then, this cold current SURFACES and it is accompanied, following the same counterclockwise direction, the southern pacific anticyclone, also called the chilean anticyclone. So, it is the sense of gyre what changes, its “polarity”, so to say.
Southward and Northward are Opposite, are they not now, or is it because South America doesn’t exist anymore now, but Australia and New Zealand?
Keith says: “First thing that struck me is that, just like this year, the 1997/8 El Nino brought much warmer-than-usual temperatures to Canada. Is there a known mechanism for this (I’m guessing the Kuroshio current is made warmer by ENSO)?”
The mechanism described in papers such as Trenberth et al (2000)…
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/papers/2000JD000298.pdf
…are typically referred to as teleconnections. These are caused by the changes in atmospheric circulation that result from the El Niño.
Trenberth et al write on page 1, “A major part of the ocean heat loss to the atmosphere is through evaporation and thus is realized in the atmosphere as latent heating in precipitation, which drives teleconnections. Reduced precipitation and increased solar radiation in Australia, Southeast Asia, parts of Africa, and northern South America contribute to surface warming that peaks several months after the El Nino event. Teleconnections contribute to the extensive warming over Alaska and western Canada through a deeper Aleutian low and stronger southerly flow into these regions 0–12 months later.”
Refer also to the color version of Figure 8 on page 18.
Keep in mind, though, that Trenberth et al (2000) included El Niño Modoki with the “traditional” central and eastern Pacific El Niño events. The correlations may be somewhat different. The 1997/98 El Niño was a central and eastern Pacific El Niño, and the 2009/10 event was an El Niño Modoki.
Are changing opposites scaring?. Why?. Here they are evident.
A note to tech article writers and wannabe writers everywhere: define your acronyms in first use, regardless of whether you think you are talking to your confreres or not. Not everyone interprets your acronyms the same way, as in: “It’s well known that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) …” I hate reading through an article wondering what appears to be the prime subject is , only referred to as “ROTFL” or some such thing… using only the content of the article to try to deduce what the hell yer talking about.
Great work and much to think about. This illustrates the importance of fully understanding the fluid dynamic system we call oceans as they are a much greater influence on the fluid dynamic system we call the atmosphere then most seem or recognize. It also demonstrates not only the lack of understanding we have of these systems but the lack of understanding we have of how they interface. Your hypothesis sure make more sense then most others I have seen.
Very nice article on cloud affect (relative to affects on IR) and SST. The authors point out the weaknesses in climate models for not accounting for this.
ftp://grads.iges.org/pub/ctr/CTR286_ms.pdf
Kids, ya know, use to have parents; in this case we all know who the father is, the Sun, and we feel the Mother around by her electrical character, she undoubtedly is Gaia.
Stephen Wilde says: “A fine piece of work with lots to chew on.”
Yup.
“The question of causation remains open however and in particular the question as to whether the ENSO phenomenon is itself a climate driver causing air circulation changes or whether the air circulation changes drive ENSO.”
I vote for the former, with the air circulation changes driving LaNiña, in turn.
“In oder to account for longer air circulation changes over the period from MWP to LIA and then to date I think we need to attribute a climate forcing ability to the oceans themselves possibly via small variations in the temperature of the water along the horizontal route of the thermohaline circulation.”
Yes, possibly. Perhaps volcanism played a part in this. Dissolved gases have a significant effect on water viscosity and, to a lesser extent, density and temperature.
So I will try again. This article is an excellent discussion on the affects of internally variable IR, SST, and why the models aren’t catching this. Includes a discussion on clouds as a factor.
ftp://grads.iges.org/pub/ctr/CTR286_ms.pdf