Guest Commentary by Paul Driessen

“Scientific debates should be played out in the academic arena,” insists University of Virginia environmental sciences professor David Carr. “If Michael Mann’s conclusions are unsupported by his data, his scientific critics will eventually demonstrate this.”
Carr and 809 other Virginia scientists and academics signed a petition launched by the activist Union of Concerned Scientists, protesting Commonwealth Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli’s investigation of former University of Virginia professor Michael Mann. The American Association of University Professors likewise opposes Cuccinelli, who is seeking documents from UVA, to determine whether there are grounds to prosecute Mann for violating the Fraud Against Taxpayers Act, by presenting false or misleading information in support of applications for state-funded research.
Carr claims Cuccinelli is attempting to “drown out” scientific debate.” Others have accused the AG of conducting a “witch hunt,” engaging in “McCarthyite” tactics, and “restricting academic freedom.”
It’s time to clear a few things up.
Mann is the former UVA professor, whose “hockey stick” temperature chart was used to promote claims that “sudden” and “unprecedented” manmade global warming “threatens” human civilization and Earth itself. The hockey stick was first broken by climatologists Willie Soon and Sallie Baliunas, who demonstrated that a Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age were clearly reflected in historic data across the globe, but redacted by Mann. Analysts Steve McIntyre and Ross McKitrick later showed that Mann’s computer program generated hockey-stick patterns regardless of what numbers were fed into it – even random telephone numbers; that explained why the global warming and cooling of the last millennium magically disappeared in Mann’s “temperature reconstruction.”
The Climategate emails revealed another deliberate “trick” that Mann used to generate a late twentieth-century temperature jump: he replaced tree ring data with thermometer measurements at the point in his timeline when the tree data no longer fit his climate disaster thesis.
Not surprisingly, he refused to share his data, computer codes and methodologies with skeptical scientists. Perhaps worse, Climategate emails indicate that Mann and others conspired to co-opt and corrupt the very scientific process that Carr asserts will ultimately condemn or vindicate them.
This behavior certainly gives Cuccinelli “probable cause” for launching an investigation. As the AG notes, “The same legal standards for fraud apply to the academic setting that apply elsewhere. The same rule of law, the same objective fact-finding process, will take place.” Some witch hunt.
There is simply no room in science, academia or public policy for manipulation, falsification or fraud. Academic freedom does not confer a right to engage in such practices, and both attorneys general and research institutions have a duty to root them out, especially in the case of climate change research.
Work by Mann and other alarmist scientists is not merely some theoretical exercise that can be permitted to “play itself out” over many years, if and when the “academic arena” gets around to it. These assertions of climate crisis are being used right now by Congress, states, courts and the Environmental Protection Agency to justify draconian restrictions on energy use and greenhouse emissions. They would shackle our freedoms and civil rights and hammer our jobs, economy, health, welfare and living standards.
If the science is wrong – or far worse, if it is manipulated, fabricated, fraudulent and covered up – then grave damage will be done to our nation, liberties and families, before the truth gets its boots on.
As to “scientific debate” over global warming, there has been virtually none in the academic arena. The science is viewed as “settled,” debate has been squelched, and those who seek to initiate debate are attacked, vilified, harassed and shipped off to academic Siberia.
Dr. Patrick Michaels, another former UVA climate researcher, was fired as Virginia State Climatologist by then-Governor Tim Kaine for raising inconvenient questions and facts on climate science. When Greenpeace demanded access to Michaels’ emails, UVA promptly acceded – before contesting AG Cuccinelli’s request for Mann’s.
The 810 protesters and their UCS and AAUP consorts were silent. Their principles and objections do not seem to apply to shrill activist groups infringing on the academic and scientific freedom of “politically incorrect” researchers, even when there is no suggestion of dishonesty. Other “skeptical” climate researchers have met with similar fates. The pungent scent of hypocrisy fills the air.
No surprise there. The massive US government climate change research gravy train alone totaled some $9 billion in grants during 2009, courtesy of hardworking taxpayers. IPCC, EU & Company climate grants – plus billions more for renewable energy research – fatten the larder still further. Now that money, prestige and power are threatened.
Climategate and other revelations about the lack of evidence for the “manmade climate disaster” thesis have sent belief in AlGorean gloom and doom plummeting. Global warming consistently comes in dead last on any list of environmental concerns. Three-fourths of Americans are unwilling to spend more than $100 a year to prevent climate change. China, India and other developing nations properly refuse to sign a carbon-cutting economic suicide pact.
The public is rightly concerned that in-house investigations by Penn State University (Mann’s current institution), East Anglia University (home of Phil Jones and the Climategate emails) and the IPCC have the patina of a Tom Sawyer whitewash. Independent investigations like Cuccinelli’s are absolutely essential, to ferret out fraud and misconduct – which may be rare but must be dealt with when it happens.
Dr. Andrew Wakefield falsified studies to create a connection between autism and trace mercury in vaccines against measles, mumps and rubella. Britain stripped him of his right to practice medicine. But meanwhile, a lingering stench remains over double standards; World Wildlife Fund press releases and rank speculation masquerading as peer-reviewed science; computer models enshrined as “proof” of looming climate disasters; and billions being squandered on research purporting to link global warming to nearly every malady and phenomenon known to man.
We the taxpayers are paying for this work. We the people will pay the price – in soaring energy bills, fewer jobs, lower living standards and lost freedoms – for draconian energy and emission laws enacted in the name of saving the planet.
We have a right to insist that the research be honest and aboveboard. That the work products stay in the public domain, available for scrutiny. That researchers share their data, computer codes and analytical methodologies, and engage in robust debate with skeptics and critics. That those who violate these fundamental precepts forfeit their access to future grants. And that our tax dollars no longer fund bogus acne-and-climate-change studies and alarmist propaganda. (Talk about budget cutting opportunities!)
It’s certainly understandable that scientists, academics, eco-activists and the AAUP and UVA would line up behind Mann and against Cuccinelli. There’s a lot of power, prestige and cash on the line. But it is essential that the attorney general and law-abiding citizens insist on transparency, integrity, credibility and accountability in the climate change arena.
We should support what Ken Cuccinelli is doing – and demand that Eric Holder and other state AGs take similar action.
Paul Driessen is senior policy advisor for the Committee For A Constructive Tomorrow (www.CFACT.org) and author of Eco-Imperialism: Green Power – Black Death.
[snip – tone it down, Anthony]
Having been audited, the source of funds is irrelevant. They were received by the UVA and distributed to Mann – those funds derived from Federal sources could be independently audited by their granting agencies.
What are the liberals thinking?
Under the AMerican Power Act (energy taxes) they pose sending folks to your home to do an energy audit. Smart meter, appliances, insulations, windows and many other items.
Under Obamacare, there are audits of Medical Clinics to see if they are making too much profit.
Under bank bailouts, the number of audits and asset reviews went up.
OSHA routinely does safety audits and exams.
The company I own has routine audits of our employer 401k plan.
The liability insurance carrier does asset reviews and safety examinations.
Under what wild and crazy notion do Academics claim they are above the inconvenience of scrutiny and external review?
Henry chance says:
June 1, 2010 at 7:30 am
What are the liberals thinking?
[–snip–]
Under what wild and crazy notion do Academics claim they are above the inconvenience of scrutiny and external review?
BRAVO, Henry!
How DARE they presume to be beyond reproach?!
Well, obviously they have titles of nobility, i.e., letters after their names, that’s why!
It is time to go for broke.
Yes, the Constitution limits our Federal government, and that is what has kept us Virginians and us Americans free, and has helped us keep the rest of the world free, too.
No free lunch. No free grants. No free political power. By, of and for the people, in whatever order, is what the American precedent is about. That is a gift from our country’s ancestors to the world, free to take or reject, and free to adopt to your own people.
And free to be called to account when it may have been abused. By each of the States. Not by the United States. What a gift to live in this way.
Chuck Wiese says:
May 31, 2010 at 12:01 pm
“Cohenite Writes: “Hansen’s Scenario B projection obviously is better than no projection at all or a projection of no increase in global temperature. From looking at the chart in the Journal of Geophysical Researchl, I also think his projection is more accurate than a simple extrapolation of the 1960-1988 trend.”
Cohenite: Baloney! Hooey!”
Fair dinkum Chuck, that wasn’t me, it was Wren who said that;
“Wren says:
May 31, 2010 at 10:15 am”
I had taken him to task earlier and he threw some GISS rubbish at me which I didn’t think worth the effort of responding to.
cohenite says:
June 1, 2010 at 11:53 pm
Chuck Wiese says:
May 31, 2010 at 12:01 pm
“Cohenite Writes: “Hansen’s Scenario B projection obviously is better than no projection at all or a projection of no increase in global temperature. From looking at the chart in the Journal of Geophysical Researchl, I also think his projection is more accurate than a simple extrapolation of the 1960-1988 trend.”
Cohenite: Baloney! Hooey!”
Fair dinkum Chuck, that wasn’t me, it was Wren who said that;
“Wren says:
May 31, 2010 at 10:15 am”
I had taken him to task earlier and he threw some GISS rubbish at me which I didn’t think worth the effort of responding to.
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What I did is based on published data and is easily verifiably and repeatable by anyone interested in examining my work. I think that would be the fair response rather than calling it “rubbish” without giving reasons.
I quoted Hansen’s Scenario B projection of a 1.0 C 1960-2010 increase in global temperature directly from the source:
http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/1988/1988_Hansen_etal.pdf
I calculated the observed global temperature increase of 0.8 from 1960 to the the first quarter of 2010 directly from the anomalies in the source:
http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/1988/1988_Hansen_etal.pdf
The observed increase of 0.8 C is close to Hansen’s projected increase of 1.0 C , a pretty accurate projection, and obviously better than no projection at all or a projection of no change in temperature.
Wren,
Hansen took the long term average rise in global temperature [.14°/decade] and extrapolated it — with three predictions. None of them were right.
The fact that Hansen got close on one of them [but was still wrong despite the large fudge factors] means that you are practicing the Texas Sharpshooter fallacy of shooting a hole in the barn door and drawing a bullseye around it.
Face it, Hansen has been wrong all along. If he can’t get in the ball park with three separate scenarios, why should anyone listen to him? We need people who are right, not wrong.
Chuck Wiese says:
May 31, 2010 at 12:01 pm
Cohenite Writes: “Hansen’s Scenario B projection obviously is better than no projection at all or a projection of no increase in global temperature. From looking at the chart in the Journal of Geophysical Researchl, I also think his projection is more accurate than a simple extrapolation of the 1960-1988 trend.”
Cohenite: Baloney! Hooey! Hansen’s scenario C is still projected above current temperatures in 2010 when that scenario stops ALL CO2 increases in the year 2000 at 368 ppmv. We are now at 389 ppmv so it is clear the modeling is a complete failure and artifact of science. ALL climate modeling to date is UNPHYSICAL and UNABLE to accurately simulate or replicate the real physical processes of the earth atmospheric interface because of gross over parameterizations of those processes to maintain computational stability, AND the modeling obviously has serious issues with radiative transfer because of the inability to model the earth’s hydrological cycle, which is the single most imortant process that handles the heat and energy exchanges between the surface and atmospheric interface.
Climate models are NOT physical and scientific with respect to how these jerks and frauds are portraying them and misleading politicians into believing they are. For you to claim ANY scenario is better than none is scientifically vacant and lends no credibility to any of these jerks. There has been no proof offered to date that CO2 has caused or driven the recently terminated warming trend and there are no measurements that have been obtained that demonstrate this either.
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I didn’t say “ANY scenario is better than none.” I said Hansen’s Scenario B projection of a 1.0 C increase in global temperature from 1960 to 2010 (1st quarter) is close to the observed increase of 0.8 C. Obviously that’s better than no projection at all or a projection of no change in the temperature, as are his A and C projections, although not as accurate as B.
If Hansen under-projected CO2, so what? He did project an increase in CO2, and it increased. Isn’t that better than no projection or a projection of no increase in CO2. Anyone who thinks Hansen’s B projection of temperature is “right for the wrong reasons,” would need to show (1) the underlying projections and the assumptions about the future were less accurate than an assumption that nothing would change, and (2) the underlying projections and assumptions were so wrong and so in conflict that they offset each other to make the temperature projection right. Has anyone done that?
Scientist don’t expect projections into the future to turn out to be right on the money , nor do they they believe that degree of accuracy is needed for the projections to be useful. No one can project the future with precision and absolute certainty, so if you want to know if a projection has turned out good, the first question should be — good compared to what?
R. Craigen says:
May 30, 2010 at 5:05 pm
“….. I think a lawsuit like this might be the only way scrutiny of the climate alarmist behavior can be forced. It is too bad it has to be Mann, who is not the worst in the alarmist camp, and whose behavior is probably not criminal, though in my opinion at times it has verged on being unethical, and until the discovery phase we will not really know whether or not the case has sufficient merit. I suspect Mann and UVA’s lawyers, however, will do anything to avoid submitting to discovery, which is really the main point of the case.”
__________________________________________________________________________
The thwarting of FOI requests and the dodging of the discovery process, makes me as a tax payer very very suspicious. The Virginia and US tax payers by paying for Dr. Mann’s work are in effect his boss. Therefore we have every right to demand an accounting of his work.
The political two step and obstructionism seen throughout “climate science” should raise huge flags in everyone’s mind. In no other science is the data and methods hidden during peer reviewed publication.
The damage done to the name of science by these so called “academic scientists” is inexcusable. I would like to see every one of them thrown out of their jobs. If the universities and colleges had any ethics they would do so instead of defending poor practices.
HR says:
May 30, 2010 at 8:07 pm
What a nightmare! You have no understanding of freedom from the state.
You expect a free and open scierntific debate when the state is brought in to attack one side of the debate.
Just because Mann does and says things you don’t like isn’t a reason for the state to come down on his head. What’s to stop your friends from coming under this sort of attack? There’s too much politics in climate science already.
____________________________________________________________________
I would revile ANY scientist who falsifies data for money… Actually I HAVE fired two chemists for that exact reason.
You must not have read much of this blog. Science is what counts, not which side of the debate you are on. I know of at least two anti-CAGW types who have been banned from WUWT while pro-CAGW types continue to post.
This is investigation is all about secrecy and misuse of funds.
Smokey says:
June 2, 2010 at 10:58 am
Wren,
Hansen took the long term average rise in global temperature [.14°/decade] and extrapolated it — with three predictions. None of them were right.
The fact that Hansen got close on one of them [but was still wrong despite the large fudge factors] means that you are practicing the Texas Sharpshooter fallacy of shooting a hole in the barn door and drawing a bullseye around it.
Face it, Hansen has been wrong all along. If he can’t get in the ball park with three separate scenarios, why should anyone listen to him? We need people who are right, not wrong.
====
Smokey, I just wrote a lengthy reply to cohenite’s post, clicked the “Post Comment” button, and my reply vanished. I don’t know why.
I’m beginning to think I’m wasting my time on this thread, but since you replied to my post, I will not ignore your message.
If by wrong, you mean none of the projections were 100% accurate, you should know scientists don’t expect projections or forecasts to be right on the money, since no one can predict the future with absolute certainty. But pinpoint accuracy is not necessary for a projection to be good.
Of Hansen’s three scenarios for global temperature projection he made in 1988, one is now too low, one is about on the mark, and one is too high. Obviously, we can’t expect all three scenarios to be right, but all three projected increases in temperature, and temperature increased. If Hansen’s projections were projections of the prices of three stocks, we would have made money on all three.
If by your standards, the projections are wrong, I will ask you wrong compared to what? What other projections of temperature were made in 1988 to the year 2020?
Smokey, my reply to cohenite’s post didn’t vanish as I had feared. There was just a delay.
To Whom It Concerns: I just sent a post that disapeared and forgot to sign my name.
I could not retreave it but hopefully you still have it. It was my response to Wren, and unfortunately I did not save it!
Chuck Wiese