UPDATE: NOAA on the same day predicts a below normal east Pacific hurricane season, see below for addeddum.
Contact: Chris Vaccaro, 202-536-8911 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Susan Buchanan, 301-713-0622 May 27, 2010
NOAA Expects Busy Atlantic Hurricane Season
An “active to extremely active” hurricane season is expected for the Atlantic Basin this year, according to the seasonal outlook issued today by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center – a division of the National Weather Service. As with every hurricane season, this outlook underscores the importance of having a hurricane preparedness plan in place.
Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the six-month season, which begins June 1, NOAA is projecting a 70 percent probability of the following ranges:
- 14 to 23 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:
- 8 to 14 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
- 3 to 7 could be major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)
“If this outlook holds true, this season could be one of the more active on record,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “The greater likelihood of storms brings an increased risk of a landfall. In short, we urge everyone to be prepared.”
The outlook ranges exceed the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. Expected factors supporting this outlook are:
- Upper atmospheric winds conducive for storms. Wind shear, which can tear apart storms, will be weaker since El Niño in the eastern Pacific has dissipated. Strong wind shear helped suppress storm development during the 2009 hurricane season.
- Warm Atlantic Ocean water. Sea surface temperatures are expected to remain above average where storms often develop and move across the Atlantic. Record warm temperatures – up to four degrees Fahrenheit above average – are now present in this region.
- High activity era continues. Since 1995, the tropical multi-decadal signal has brought favorable ocean and atmospheric conditions in sync, leading to more active hurricane seasons. Eight of the last 15 seasons rank in the top ten for the most named storms with 2005 in first place with 28 named storms.
“The main uncertainty in this outlook is how much above normal the season will be. Whether or not we approach the high end of the predicted ranges depends partly on whether or not La Niña develops this summer,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “At present we are in a neutral state, but conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for La Niña to develop.”
“FEMA is working across the administration and with our state and local partners to ensure we’re prepared for hurricane season,” said FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate. “But we can only be as prepared as the public, so it’s important that families and businesses in coastal communities take steps now to be ready. These include developing a communications plan, putting together a kit, and staying informed of the latest forecasts and local emergency plans. You can’t control when a hurricane or other emergency may happen, but you can make sure you’re ready.”
The President recently designated May 23 through 29 as National Hurricane Preparedness Week. NOAA and FEMA encourage those living in hurricane-prone states to use this time to review their overall preparedness. More information on individual and family preparedness can be found at http://www.Ready.gov and http://www.hurricanes.gov/prepare.
NOAA scientists will continue to monitor evolving conditions in the tropics and will issue an updated hurricane outlook in early August, just prior to what is historically the peak period for hurricane activity.
NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Visit us at http://www.noaa.gov or on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/usnoaagov.
On the Web:
NOAA’s National Hurricane Center: http://ww.hurricanes.gov
FEMA: http://www.fema.gov and http://www.ready.gov
– 30 –
UPDATE
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Contact: Susan Buchanan FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
301-713-0622 May 27, 2010
NOAA Predicts Below Normal Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season
NOAA’s National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center today announced that projected climate conditions point to a below normal hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific this year. The outlook calls for a 75 percent probability of a below normal season, a 20 percent probability of a near normal season and a five percent probability of an above normal season.
Allowing for forecast uncertainties, seasonal hurricane forecasters estimate a 70 percent chance of 9 to 15 named storms, which includes 4 to 8 hurricanes, of which 1 to 3 are expected to become major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale).
An average Eastern Pacific hurricane season produces 15 to 16 named storms, with nine becoming hurricanes and four to five becoming major hurricanes. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15 through Nov. 30, with peak activity from July through September.
The main climate factors influencing this year’s Eastern Pacific outlook are the atmospheric conditions that have decreased hurricane activity over the Eastern Pacific Ocean since 1995 – and the fact that El Niño has faded.
“La Niña is becoming increasingly likely, which further raises the chance of a below-normal season for the Eastern Pacific region,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
The outlook is a general guide to the overall seasonal hurricane activity. It does not predict whether, where or when any of these storms may hit land.
Eastern Pacific tropical storms most often track westward over open waters, sometimes reaching Hawaii and beyond. However, some occasionally head toward the northeast and may bring rainfall to the arid southwestern United States during the summer months. Also, during any given season, two to three tropical storms can affect western Mexico or Central America. Residents, businesses and government agencies of coastal and near-coastal regions should always prepare prior to each and every hurricane season regardless of the seasonal hurricane outlook.
NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Visit us at http://www.noaa.gov or on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/usnoaagov.
– 30 –
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“FEMA is working across the administration and with our state and local partners to ensure we’re prepared for hurricane season,” said FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate.
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I was wondering what they were doing. Shhhhh.. don’t anyone tell them there’s an oil leak in the Gulf.
The Gulf is below normal (or was the last time I looked) and so is (was) the region off the East Coast of the U.S. Shouldn’t this lead to less intense hurricanes even if the numbers are higher from high surface temperatures elsewhere?
Of course, some of this is the expected result of a quick trigger for naming. If criteria were held constant how would those eight years compare?
I wonder if the delay was because their initial forcast agreed with the chimp so they had to change to something else? Since their past success indicates they are just guessing anyway and the chimp said 6-8, they had to choose between less than 6 or more than 8 and they chose the latter?
Or am I too cynical?
Well since were all guessing anyway:) Heres my tarot reading for named storms that make landfall: Three and that tall dark stranger you met last year.. well turns out he is a jerk:) hehehe.
@Tom in Florida says:
May 27, 2010 at 8:19 pm
“Just to be clear, the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is mid September”
The equinox yes, same for the N.Pacific. The problem this year is that there are some very strong solar triggers occurring right from peak season and through October, so I am saying from the equinox through October and November for the bigger events this year. Given the QBO status, numbers of named storms should be down this year, July could see a US landfall event, August should be less busy. Bangladesh could also get a large hit in October.
Tom in Florida says:
May 27, 2010 at 8:19 pm
“Just to be clear, the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is mid September”
The equinox yes, same for the N.Pacific. The problem this year is that there are some very strong solar triggers occurring right from peak season and through October, so I am saying from the equinox through October and November for the bigger events this year. Given the QBO status, numbers of named storms should be down this year, July could see a US landfall event, August should be less busy. Bangladesh could also get a large hit in October.
yes uric
This is for events over the next six months, IPCC would have us believe they know what events are going to happen 50 years from now!! ROFLMAO
http://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local-beat/NBC-MIami-review-Hurricane-predictions-are-wrong-about-half-the-time-95081124.html
Hurricane Hype? Predictions Wrong Half the Time
An NBC Miami review of nearly a decade of pre-season predictions of hurricane season shows the two major predicting institutions are right about half the time. In some categories, they fail even more frequently.
Still, predicting these hurricanes and storms is imperfect to be sure, as our review of the success of those pre-season predictions since 2001.
First, in predicting named storms, NOAA has fallen within its range 5 times in 9 years. Dr. Gray has hit his number just once. But if granted a range like NOAA uses, Dr. Gray has been right 5 times also in 9 years.
Of course, predicting hurricanes rather than storms is even more vital. In that category, NOAA has been right since 2001 just twice. Dr. Gray has been right just once. But, again, granted a range, Dr. Gray has been right 3 times.
In sum, they are roughly equal with a rather poor success rate although one could argue they provide a general idea.
While working with Piers Corbyn, I have helped to expand the knowledge base on triggers for individual tropical cyclones, timing for the majority of events in all oceans is regularly acheived. Piers also has a system for identifying location and likely tracks for any given event, which has a success rate of around 85%.
If a gulf hurricane picks up the BP oil slick, and it caught fire, could we sue BP for global warming?
I’ve always been of the opinion that the people that make the predictions should not be the same ones that categorize a tropical weather event as a Low, TD, Storm 0r Hurricane. There is always the open question of an inherent bias towards proving themselves right.
Jose