UPDATE: NOAA on the same day predicts a below normal east Pacific hurricane season, see below for addeddum.
Contact: Chris Vaccaro, 202-536-8911 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Susan Buchanan, 301-713-0622 May 27, 2010
NOAA Expects Busy Atlantic Hurricane Season
An “active to extremely active” hurricane season is expected for the Atlantic Basin this year, according to the seasonal outlook issued today by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center – a division of the National Weather Service. As with every hurricane season, this outlook underscores the importance of having a hurricane preparedness plan in place.
Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the six-month season, which begins June 1, NOAA is projecting a 70 percent probability of the following ranges:
- 14 to 23 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:
- 8 to 14 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
- 3 to 7 could be major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)
“If this outlook holds true, this season could be one of the more active on record,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “The greater likelihood of storms brings an increased risk of a landfall. In short, we urge everyone to be prepared.”
The outlook ranges exceed the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. Expected factors supporting this outlook are:
- Upper atmospheric winds conducive for storms. Wind shear, which can tear apart storms, will be weaker since El Niño in the eastern Pacific has dissipated. Strong wind shear helped suppress storm development during the 2009 hurricane season.
- Warm Atlantic Ocean water. Sea surface temperatures are expected to remain above average where storms often develop and move across the Atlantic. Record warm temperatures – up to four degrees Fahrenheit above average – are now present in this region.
- High activity era continues. Since 1995, the tropical multi-decadal signal has brought favorable ocean and atmospheric conditions in sync, leading to more active hurricane seasons. Eight of the last 15 seasons rank in the top ten for the most named storms with 2005 in first place with 28 named storms.
“The main uncertainty in this outlook is how much above normal the season will be. Whether or not we approach the high end of the predicted ranges depends partly on whether or not La Niña develops this summer,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “At present we are in a neutral state, but conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for La Niña to develop.”
“FEMA is working across the administration and with our state and local partners to ensure we’re prepared for hurricane season,” said FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate. “But we can only be as prepared as the public, so it’s important that families and businesses in coastal communities take steps now to be ready. These include developing a communications plan, putting together a kit, and staying informed of the latest forecasts and local emergency plans. You can’t control when a hurricane or other emergency may happen, but you can make sure you’re ready.”
The President recently designated May 23 through 29 as National Hurricane Preparedness Week. NOAA and FEMA encourage those living in hurricane-prone states to use this time to review their overall preparedness. More information on individual and family preparedness can be found at http://www.Ready.gov and http://www.hurricanes.gov/prepare.
NOAA scientists will continue to monitor evolving conditions in the tropics and will issue an updated hurricane outlook in early August, just prior to what is historically the peak period for hurricane activity.
NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Visit us at http://www.noaa.gov or on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/usnoaagov.
On the Web:
NOAA’s National Hurricane Center: http://ww.hurricanes.gov
FEMA: http://www.fema.gov and http://www.ready.gov
– 30 –
UPDATE
==========================================================
Contact: Susan Buchanan FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
301-713-0622 May 27, 2010
NOAA Predicts Below Normal Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season
NOAA’s National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center today announced that projected climate conditions point to a below normal hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific this year. The outlook calls for a 75 percent probability of a below normal season, a 20 percent probability of a near normal season and a five percent probability of an above normal season.
Allowing for forecast uncertainties, seasonal hurricane forecasters estimate a 70 percent chance of 9 to 15 named storms, which includes 4 to 8 hurricanes, of which 1 to 3 are expected to become major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale).
An average Eastern Pacific hurricane season produces 15 to 16 named storms, with nine becoming hurricanes and four to five becoming major hurricanes. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15 through Nov. 30, with peak activity from July through September.
The main climate factors influencing this year’s Eastern Pacific outlook are the atmospheric conditions that have decreased hurricane activity over the Eastern Pacific Ocean since 1995 – and the fact that El Niño has faded.
“La Niña is becoming increasingly likely, which further raises the chance of a below-normal season for the Eastern Pacific region,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
The outlook is a general guide to the overall seasonal hurricane activity. It does not predict whether, where or when any of these storms may hit land.
Eastern Pacific tropical storms most often track westward over open waters, sometimes reaching Hawaii and beyond. However, some occasionally head toward the northeast and may bring rainfall to the arid southwestern United States during the summer months. Also, during any given season, two to three tropical storms can affect western Mexico or Central America. Residents, businesses and government agencies of coastal and near-coastal regions should always prepare prior to each and every hurricane season regardless of the seasonal hurricane outlook.
NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Visit us at http://www.noaa.gov or on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/usnoaagov.
– 30 –
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So it is ‘normal’ to ‘extremely normal’, can’t go wrong with that.
So Atlantic hurricanes may increase and Pacific hurricanes may decrease. Sounds like an average of zero to me.
What about the Accumulated Cyclone Index throughout the world? What will it be?
But fear not. The only news at 6:30PM will be “Atlanic Hurricane Season to be above normal”. Count on it.
H.R. says:(May 27, 2010 at 9:18 am)
If poster “Tom In Florida” sneezes down there, it’ll probably be declared a “named storm.”
Good thing I have no allergies.
Milwaukee Bob says: (May 27, 2010 at 11:53 am)
” and I (in Tampa)…..”
tarpon says:(May 27, 2010 at 12:26 pm)
“All I know is in the 14 years we have lived here on the Gulf coast south of Naples”
Apparently we have the central and southwest coast of Florida covered. Milwaukee Bob in Tampa, I am in Venice about 70 miles south of there and Tarpon south of Naples about 120 miles south from my location. Don’t know about the other two but I live a mile from the beach, however my elevation is 15 feet above sea level. That puts me in a Cat 5 evac zone so I’m pretty safe from storm surge especially since very few hurricanes have ever hit this area directly from the west. My biggest fear is wind from the eye wall as a hurricane moves north up the coast.
As Milwaukee Bob said, we stay prepared each year no matter what the monkees predict.
Thanks, Timetochooseagain. Looks like Dr. Gray agrees with NOAA. However, the solar inactivity and cosmic rays could muck up their predictions.
“8 to 14 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which: ”
=========
I thought you needed SUSTAINED winds of 74 mph or higher, are the goal posts moving again ?
When they determine what Cat “X” a storm is based on the force of the winds, what size area or volume do they use? And can they now use satellites or do they still use direct observation to determine the number of cats in the air?
Charles S. Opalek, PE says:
May 27, 2010 at 12:53 pm
“[…]
What about the Accumulated Cyclone Index […]”
Thank you Mr. Opaleck. I was thinking ACE for some reason unknown even to me. It’s ACI. (doh!) ACI as opposed to number of named storms is the way to add to our knowledge of the climate.
I also note that neither ACI nor number of named storms matters not a whit to the public. You could have the worst Atlantic storm season in recorded or proxied history, but if the storms all veer off into the Atlantic without making landfall somewhere, it just doesn’t matter. Jane/Joe Public only cares about the storm that is headed “right at me.“
Oops! Sorry about the extra ‘c’ Mr. Opalek.
Earlier –
See – owe to Rich says wrote –
“See – owe to Rich says:
May 27, 2010 at 12:24 pm
Re Tom S at 11:11, and hurricanes being good for dissipating oil.
Some years ago, there was a really bad oil tanker accident on the west coast of the Shetlands or Orkneys. The environmentalists were up in arms about the likely destruction of puffin colonies etc. However, up there they have things called gales which easily reach hurricane force at times. There were two weeks of those and the media rapidly lost interest as the damage was so small. Which was great. But Gaia doesn’t always heal so effectively.”
That was the incident of the tnker “BRAER”. Fortunately no seaman nor rescuer hurt.
It helped that the crude oil was light crude. Sub-optimal seamanship (and familiarisation) etc as cause – plus the wind.
But – thanks largely to the storm [c.920 mb predicted at least 24 hours earlier, which made serious winds are an absolute a shoo-in in the UK] – very little pollution damage from the oil.
(My rule of thumb –
winter: –
980mb – gales;
960 mb – storm [Bf 10+];
940 mb – Bf 12 – with all the knock on effects of such an event.)
As for this forthcoming season – isn’t it a chaotic system?
Hey – I live in England.
I believe that the Met Office has now improved so that its forecasts are – statistically – better than – “Like yesterday”.
[I have not sighted proof, just newspaper articles}
Tom in Florida said at 1:21 pm
…I live a mile from the beach, however my elevation is 15 feet above sea level. That puts me in a Cat 5 evac zone… Tom, at 15 Ft that mile would probably save you from the surge even at high tide. I’m inland 25 miles from the coast & 15 N of the bay, about 80Ft up. If we get flooded from a hurricane ….. I’ll be looking for an ark.
BTW, no offense meant by the living by the water comment. If we could afford it, having a little condo on the beach…. of course that would come after the cabin in the Mts.
Milwaukee Bob says:(May 27, 2010 at 2:39 pm)
“BTW, no offense meant by the living by the water comment. If we could afford it, having a little condo on the beach…. of course that would come after the cabin in the Mts.”
None taken as I am not right “on the water”. But, for all who may feel sorry of those of us who choose to live this way, save your tears. We know the dangers and we accept the risk because the rewards are worth it!
kadaka asked: at 2:18 pm
based on the force of the winds, what size area or volume do they use? And can they now use satellites or do they still use direct observation to determine the number of cats in the air?
The “category” is determined by wind -speed- and can be very deceiving and therefore is NOT a very good indication of the REAL threat of a storm. The “intensity” of a compact (smaller size across) storm, like Andrew, can destroy and kill far more than a larger storm as they tend to produce highly localized very intense straight line winds and of course more tornados. And unfortunately, a lower category storm quite often will be taken less seriously and that gets people killed. Is there historically more “damage” from Cat 4 & 5’s than Cat 2 & 3’s? When your in the middle of one, you wont much care what happened in history.
And yes, they now use satellites to determine many things about a storm but it is still limited and not detailed enough so they also continue to “send in the planes” from MacDill AFB in S. Tampa. And yes, sometimes they do see cats flying thru the air….
Tom in Florida said at 2:56 pm
and we accept the risk because the rewards are worth it!
Well said, Bro! Like, right now – 85 degrees on the Lanai, feet dangling in the pool, Dave Koz playing in the background and an ice cold Yuengling……
Did some monkey say something about hurricanes?
u.k.(us) says:
May 27, 2010 at 2:16 pm
“8 to 14 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which: ”
=========
I thought you needed SUSTAINED winds of 74 mph or higher, are the goal posts moving again ?
_______________________________________________________________________
You are correct. I guess they did move the goal posts since IPCC said more hurricanes due to AGW.
Glossary of NHC Terms
“Apr 6, 2010 … The National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida is responsible for … Hurricane Warning: An announcement that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are … “
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
Re: Milwaukee Bob on May 27, 2010 at 3:13 pm
Say what? Please re-read my comment. If still unsure of the meaning, perhaps some live up-close footage of extreme wind events like tornadoes can help your understanding. 😉
Re: kadaka (KD Knoebel) on May 27, 2010 at 3:53 pm
(currently awaiting moderation)
Whoops, never mind, just saw the tail end of your post.
BTW, why so serious? 🙂
The only useful predictor of hurricane activity is the surface temperature of the Atlantic Ocean between the West African equatorial areas and the Nortwest coast of Brazil. That’s the area where budding storms pick up energy and become hurricanes by the time they move into the Caribean. The last several years the temperature was on the low end of the normal range, particularly in the West Atlantic, resulting in few storms.
Now the East Atlantic is relatively warm, but the NW of Brazil is about normal. The Caribean is on the cool side.
My prediction therefore: more storms than the average last few years, but no big hurricanes; in particular, heavy storms entering the Caribean will tend to peter out before any land fall. Also, a good chance that the heavier storms travel north in the West Atlantic, so if there is a landfall, it will be on the Atlantic coast, Florida and the Carolines.
Unless, of course, suddenly the West Atlantic and the Caribean warm up. (Which then will be blamed on the oil spill, no doubt).
AW – as a forecaster (demand forecaster that is), I’m constantly held to metrics of forecast accuracy and forecast bias. Just once, when we get one of these forecasts, I’d like to see their prior accuracy/bias metrics. It would certainly help to judge whether or not to have any faith in these predictions if they provided their prior period forecasts and the resulting actuals.
Cheers!
Jim
The current QBO status would indicate fewer Atlantic cyclones, but no reduction in intensity. The stronger events are going to be late in the season, particularly late September, through to November, with a big Caribbean hit, I think it will be fairly quite till then. The N.W. Pacific is likely to have an intense season later on as well.
Ed Zuiderwijk says:(May 27, 2010 at 4:19 pm)
“The only useful predictor of hurricane activity is the surface temperature of the Atlantic Ocean between the West African equatorial areas and the Nortwest coast of Brazil. ”
Sorry Ed, but SST is only one factor. Wind sheer is a major player in whether or not a hurricane develops and El Nino conditions have held them in check for about 2 years even though the SST was very warm. Also, hurricanes do not form close to the equator. Eastern Atlantic storms begin as low pressure systems off the Cape Verde Islands at around 15 degrees N latitude. Caribbean storms about the same latitude. Gulf of Mexico storms much higher. BTW, does Brazil actually have a NW coast?
Ulric Lyons says:(May 27, 2010 at 5:49 pm)
“The stronger events are going to be late in the season, particularly late September, through to November, with a big Caribbean hit, I think it will be fairly quite till then. ”
Just to be clear, the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is mid September; same time as peak arctic ice melt occurs; same time as peak annual warming in northern oceans occurs.
I live in North Florida and our damage is generally from the spin off tornados. We’ve had years where the Atlantic and Gulf waters were hotter (signifcantly at times) than normal. People were predicting more hurricanes and/or more intense hurricanes. I don’t remember either being the case (and like most Gulf Coast residents, I follow TS and hurricanes VERY closely). I think that, once the minimum temperature for a hurricane to form is met, the only effect the higher temps might have is to provide a little protection against upwelling cold water if the hurricane decides to hover for awhile. The most damage that my commuity ever sustained from tropical weather was the flooding from Georges – we were an island (and boy did the water smell) for about a week.
I pity the folks in Haiti if they get a direct hit. I can’t imagine all of that debris flying around in a hurricane. It would be like an artillery barrage.
“Sorry Ed, but SST is only one factor. Wind sheer is a major player in whether or not a hurricane develops and El Nino conditions have held them in check for about 2 years even though the SST was very warm. ”
In addition to wind shear, there is also the temperature of the air aloft. Cooler air at altitude makes for more powerful storms. Storms are a convection engine. It is the difference between sea surface temperature and air temperature that gets them going. Yes, warming the sea surface a degree will make storms stronger with a given air temperature but if you decrease the air temperature a degree, it is the same as increasing the water a degree. The key is the delta temperature.
NOAA used to release the final seasonal tracking maps in late January/early Febuary. Now, you’re lucky to get them in March. And since ’06, they tend to upgrade a few tropical storms to hurricane status if they think that hurricane winds may have existed. Unbelievable.