Global Average Sea Surface Temperatures Poised for a Plunge
by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
Just an update…as the following graph shows, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) along the equatorial Pacific (“Nino3.4″ region, red lines) have been plunging, and global average SSTs have turned the corner, too. (Click on the image for the full-size, undistorted version. Note the global values have been multiplied by 10 for display purposes.)
The corresponding sea level pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin (SOI index, next graph) shows a rapid transition toward La Nina conditions is developing.
Being a believer in natural, internal cycles in the climate system, I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that global-average SSTs will plunge over the next couple of months. Based upon past experience, it will take a month or two for our (UAH) tropospheric temperatures to then follow suit.
Ahhh… this might be what Bob Tisdale was seeing in the SSTs…
http://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2010/05/17/sst-has-dropped-below-zero-anomaly/
There appear to be a long term cycle to intense El’Ninos; if so a prolong period at the bottom of the cycle is due.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC22.htm
Wow! Joe Bastardi also thinks we’re headed for a deep La Nina. Could it make 08 look warm?
So, what do we need to hit on the anomaly, and when, to avoid “2010 hottest year” headlines? April already showed some decrease, presumably May and June will as well, and then by July what Roy is talking about here should be kicking in.
will they stay down or is this just another flash crash?
OT
Anthony,
I live in Rocklin, ca. It seems to me that the weather (at least in Nor Cal) the last 3 years or so has been cooler…..fall, spring and summer…..can’t tell with winter.
Maybe around when the PDO changed……?? Of course this is anecdotal.
Any evidence of this?
Thanks JOhn
Not what the Met office are pushing!
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2010/pr20100520.html
Those seas are gonna chill up,
Put on a happy face!
Warmers will then go dry up,
Put on a happy face!
This is explained by global warming.
As Dr. Spencer acknowledges, there is nothing at all unusual in this kind of natural cycle (i.e. drop) after an El Nino, and exactly the same kind of fall was seen after the 1998 El Nino. The more interesting question is how low will the ocean temps go and how much will the tropo temps be affected. I doubt we’ll see the La Nina low temps we saw in 2008, though temps may fall somewhere to the 2009 low.
Uh, why not just change the scale instead of multiplying the data by 10? Makes no sense to me.
Trenberth’s missing heat went into hiding in the ocean, where it was subsequently presumed to be murdered. Forensic evidence from the alleged crime scene to be processed and analyzed by Dr. Spencer. From the initial statement to the press by investigators: “Knowledgeable people assured us it was hiding deep in there, but so far we have found no credible evidence to that effect. At this point we will have to verify first that it even existed at all, and we may soon be bringing those people in for questioning.”
No, not altogether unusual, the drop to La Nina after El Nino. What Joe Bastardi is predicting is the drop to the type of La Nina’s of the 1950’s. The effect on humans will be rather pronounced, as what we are used to is 3 decades of warm El Ninos.
Don’t step on my La Nina frosted Shoes.
And I’m wondering why the AGW skeptical group is not talking about this major study on the overall warming trend of the oceans (not the cyclical rise and fall of temps based on the cycle of El Nino/La Nina):
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v465/n7296/pdf/nature09043.pdf
So while it is interesting to note the ENSO cycles, PDO, etc., more important for the long term climate are the longer term trends.
Um…so does this mean I’m wearing shorts or sweaters this summer?
R. Gates says:
May 20, 2010 at 3:31 pm
And I’m wondering why the AGW skeptical group is not talking about this major study on the overall warming trend of the oceans (not the cyclical rise and fall of temps based on the cycle of El Nino/La Nina):
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v465/n7296/pdf/nature09043.pdf
So while it is interesting to note the ENSO cycles, PDO, etc., more important for the long term climate are the longer term trends.
+++
Because it is uncontroversial to either side to note that 1993 was significantly cooler than 2008? Lovely Mt. Pinatubo cherry-pick there tho.
R. Gates says:
May 20, 2010 at 3:31 pm
Yes, it is interesting. The sun is warming the ocean.Can you explain to me why it has anything to do with CO2? How much less would the ocean be warmed by the sun, if we, say, reduced CO2 to 0.028% , instead of 0.045% (or so)
Doug says:
May 20, 2010 at 3:24 pm
“Uh, why not just change the scale instead of multiplying the data by 10? Makes no sense to me.”
There are two lines, global oceans and equatorial(5 degrees north to south).
Dr Spencer multiplied the swing in the global oceans by 10 so one could see the global ocean temps track with the equatorial temps with a time small lag.
R. Gates,
That paper addresses a 1993 to 2008 thermal trend analysis. Not a long term climate trend and much less than the estimated 30 to 60 year ENSO cycles.
The theory that stronger La Nina cycles will dominate for the next decade or two has interested people watching the shorter term swings. Are you betting for or against a long and strong La Nina?
We are cooling, folks; for how long even kim doesn’t know.
===============
R Gates,
I am not really sure what you mean by “temps may fall somewhere to the 2009 low”? 2009 was a relatively warm, El Nino year. What is the basis to believe that strong La Nina would bring about equally high temperature as those produced by a moderate El Nino in 2009?
Hi Kim,
FYI http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps
Select ‘near surface layer’. Check as many boxes as you like and then ‘Redraw’
Arguably more blogworthy than what Dr Spencer chose to post about …..
R. Gates says:
May 20, 2010 at 3:31 pm
And I’m wondering why the AGW skeptical group is not talking about this major study on the overall warming trend of the oceans (not the cyclical rise and fall of temps based on the cycle of El Nino/La Nina):
_____________________________________________________________________
You expect me to read an article that starts out with the word “Robust”????
We already know there is a pseudo-60 year cycle, Vukcevic graphs it for you and so did Bob Tisdale. Bob even showed the “step function” of the ocean charging with heat after the large El Ninos. Now we seem to have hit the top of that cycle and are probably headed towards lower temperatures. This has been expected for the last couple of years and now we see the start of it.
Apologies, messed up the URL- try here: http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/
We will cool for roughly the next 15-20 years if past experience tells us anything, then go back to a warming trend. If history tells us anything, we will be smothered with the next ice age discussions starting in about 5 years then concluding in roughly 2035 after the cooling cycle has finished it buisness and is long gone…
Natural cycles are so much fun when you change gears every 30 years and people wonder why there is so much dis-trust for climate scientists…