Yesterday I posted an announcement about this odd press release:
Think-Tank Says Trained Chimp Can Predict Hurricanes Better Than NOAA… And Puts it to the Test
Today, in a strange twist of timing, NOAA makes this press release about their hurricane announcement:
Contact: Chris Vaccaro
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
202-482-6090 May 19, 2010
NOAA’s Atlantic hurricane outlook postponed
NOAA’s Atlantic hurricane outlook announcement originally scheduled for tomorrow is now scheduled to take place next Thursday in Washington, D.C.
A new media advisory with full details will be issued shortly.
– 30 –
=========================
Hmmm. Makes me wonder if the numbers the chimp came up with were the same as what NOAA came up with. NOAA sent this via email, which I’ve verified…
Received: from mmp3.nems.noaa.gov ([140.90.121.158])
…but it hasn’t shown up in the press release archive yet. It will be interesting to see what they come up with in the delayed release and what the explanation will be (if any) on why the delay occurred.
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Al’s AGW Report: Not monkey business.
“unexpected heavy snowfall”.
…-
“British mountaineers die in Pyrenees
Two British mountaineers were killed in the Spanish Pyrenees today. The two men died during unexpected heavy snowfall near the town of Sallent de Gállego in Huesca, eastern Spain.”
“They had been passing through an area which is usually free of snow in the summer”.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article7130975.ece
RobT, the lottery and date in question will be easily recognised when those numbers are declared as the winning ones. Did I also mention that there will be another ice age?
I have spent a goodly number of hours reviewing all the books and writings on philosophy that exist in my library. I could not find any reasonable justification for the end, however noble, justifying the means. I was reminded, this is a world view well articulated by Machiavelli in The Prince, although he never quite states it as such and it is a much older concept. His work is less philosophical then political. To paraphrase: if the Prince is to maintain his position or strengthen it then… what ever it takes to do so is justified, since the Prince’s desired outcome is defined as the greater good.
Need we say more to understand? I think not. What we do about world views like this, which are endemic in all political systems, I sadly have no advice to offer.
Robert of Ottawa says:
May 19, 2010 at 1:29 pm
> Joe Bastardi is talking of a heavy hurricane season
No surprise. Given the demise of El Nino and the warm water in the Eastern Atlantic, the Cape Verde storms may get off to and early and strong start. (Normally they start in August or so. Early storms often form well west, as in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.)
Read Klotzbach & Gray on the 2nd, I’m sure they’ll have a lot to say about those predictors.
Keep an eye on the Saharan dust. That can heat the atmosphere and shade the water, and has reduced development of Cape Verde storms in past seasons.
Never give your gun to the monkey!
James says:
May 19, 2010 at 11:41 am
JDN says:
May 19, 2010 at 12:00 pm
Guys, calm down. I was only joking. I remember when Jane Goodal spoke in Winnipeg a couple of decades ago. My father spoke before her. I remember laughing because she was convinced that chimps did not engage in warfare. That they were inherently peaceful creatures. BZZZZZZT. Wrong. They will always try to dominate the group, by any means necessary. Ask the woman whose face got ripped off by a “pet” chimp. Nice “pet”. By the way I said “conduct warfare like chimanzees do”, not “live like champanzees do”. So ease up off my back there, wouldja fellas.
Instead of using dices to predict the hurricanes, the people at NOAA have a much more powerful tool… “THE GLOBAL WARMING WHEEL”… where they replace the temperature deviation numbers by hurricane numbers… spin the wheel Bob!
They are seeking “consensus” to go hi or low on the chimp.
This really is a no(aa?) win situation for them.
To myself, and I’m sure others, it’s quite simple why NOAA’s and other organization’s predictions are suffering.
Any input into their prediction algorithm that remotely deviates from the exact physics lying behind the weather and climate will greatly dilute any ability to extrapolate in the correct direction and slope.
And boy ‘o boy, have they ever had a major input dose that hinges not on realistic physics but instead of political agenda and beliefs which has no real tie to the science behind, it has even sifted into and tainted their imbedded equations. Their predications are thus doomed.
Albert Einstein and Richard Feynman were both correct; in so many words, a true scientist must always remain a skeptic. They should take heed.
Considering that, what, some $20Bil was spent on climate research and related science between TAR and AR4… and the error bars got BIGGER….???
That monkey’s a bargain!!!
I wonder if someone leaked the NOAA prediction number to The National Center for Public Policy Research. Then all they would have to do is keep filming the chimp until he picked the same forecast as the impending NOAA forecast.
That would be a truly dirty trick, but also rather amusing.
Charlie
Actually they’re just plenty confused what with they hired a shrimp.
People really have to learn to speak in a loud and clear voice with a perfect pitch.
David Ball and other chimp behaviour common taters: a good read aboot our chimp ancestors is Nicholas Wade’s ‘Before the Dawn‘.
Couldn’t walk down the street after reading that, without seeing some of the very behaviours described….
Do I have the Summary right ?
1. Sunspots say few (Michael)
2. Post El-Nino Hotspot off West Africa (Verde) says LOTS (Bastardi)
3. — Generally Nino OR Nina break up the Storms = few, BUT:
3b. … a post a week ago about El Nino fading fast — or not– said West-more El Ninos are El Nino Modoki & give LOTS of hurricanes — like 2005
4. A Verde Hotspot CAN mean lots BUT sometimes Sahara Sandstorms crop up
& kill it = translated: =Yes ! & NO ! also.
No wonder NOAA wants to hide in a corner.
Krishna Gans says:
May 19, 2010 at 12:11 pm
Is it allowed to ask and is it possible to get an answer to the question, who and what is Steve(n) Goddard, please ?
_____________________________________________________________
Steve Goddard says:
February 3, 2010 at 9:22 am
Peter,
I also have a geology degree and worked for many years as a geologist. Likewise, I don’t know any geologists who are concerned about catastrophic global warming.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/02/03/bbc-asks-wuwt-for-help/#comment-307471
Someone may have said it before but I think the NOAA delay is because their first prediction exactly matched the chimps hi/lo numbers! or worse than that their numbers were 5 – 10! HA HA HA HA. In the big gamble, if the prediction is correct, the chimp wins – he predicted first. If the prediction is incorrect, we all get to say, NOAA spent all that money to be just as wrong as a chimp rolling dice! Doh! They can’t win. Even if they stick with their wider range, they still have egg on their face! Anyone can predict higher AND lower than a chimp rolling dice! The only way they can win is to predict tighter range of higher or lower numbers!
Krishna Gans said on May 19, 2010 at 1:18 pm:
It’s worse than we thought.
In this recent article he mentions researching volcanoes for the US Government in 1980, indicating he has a geology degree. Well, Amazon has a book listed, “A Guide to Information Sources in the Geographical Sciences (Hardcover)” by Stephen Goddard, publishing date June 1983. Could this be the same person, and he has since modified his first name to what people were likely calling him anyway, he just Anglicized it slightly?
(Gee, hope no one embarrasses themselves by saying “But that’s a geography book, not geology!” Do people think geologists don’t know about geography?)
The chimp has probably been “adjusted”.
I’m sure that if we just gave some carbon credits to a bunch of chimps, they could do a lot of monkey-business buying and selling these pieces of paper between themselves.
And the tax-payers would’nt get hurt.
Regarding models, prediction, and climate;
http://www.michaelcrichton.net/speech-ourenvironmentalfuture.html