You gotta love it when the Earth gives back the love, especially today.

Those who have been following NSIDC and JAXA sea ice plots have noted that this has been an extraordinary year so far, with Arctic sea ice hitting the “normal” line on some datasets. Today the Earth gave back more for us.
As of today, JAXA shows that we have more ice than any time on this date for the past 8 years of Aqua satellite measurement for this AMSRE dataset. Yes, it isn’t much, but if this were September, and the sea ice minimum was down by this much compared to all other years, you can bet your sweet bippy we’d see it screamed in news headlines worldwide.
Of course some will argue that it “doesn’t matter” in the context of trend, or that it’s just a “weather” blip. Let us remind our friends of such blips the next time a heat wave or a storm is cited as proof of global warming.
What can be said about the short term trend in Arctic sea ice is that for the past two years, it has recovered from the historic low of 2007. It recovered in 2008, and more in 2009. If today’s Earth Day gift is any indication, it appears that it is on track now for a third year of recovery in 2010 as we’ve been saying at WUWT since fall of 2009.
I’d show NSIDC’s current Arctic Sea Ice graph also, but their website was down earlier today, and the current sea ice graph is not updated. But Steve Goddard has made some comparison overlays that are interesting.
He writes via email:
NSIDC’s web site is down today, but I overlaid DMI on top of the NSIDC graph and it should have hit the mean line today. Same story for JAXA. Images are below.
DMI uses 30% concentration, so their scale is lower than NSIDC and JAXA at 15%. I shifted the DMI data upwards and stretched vertically to visually match the NISDC data.

The second image is JAXA, DMI and NSIDC together. JAXA also needed to be shifted vertically as they apparently use a different algorithm for calculating extent than NSIDC. All three track each other fairly closely during the spring, DMI diverges from the others during the fall freeze up – probably because of the higher concentration requirements.

Blue is NSIDC. Green is JAXA. Black is DMI. The thick black line is the NSIDC mean. The dashed line is the 2007 historic low.
ADDED: Here is a wider view that shows that the three time series match closely over the interval of the NSIDC graph

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Happy Earth Day everybody!
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Ecotretas (13:35:24) :
“I ve done some analysis of one of the most northern weather stations: Eureka, in Nunavut Canada….http://ecotretas.blogspot.com/2010/04/eureka.html”
Seems the minus sign problem from Eureka gets smeared all over northern Canada because the stations are few and far between up there.
___________________________________________________________________________
Thanks, Ecotretas. It appears the temperature extrapolations are dodgy. If one looks back over the past decade, the Arctic anomalies have mostly been in the ‘red zone’. Maybe these mistakes have been happening for years. I also wonder if the underwater volcanoes in the Gakkel Ridge have helped warm the Arctic sea and melt ice.
Slightly OT, but the last time we had a lengthy quiet sun (1911-13) the following years (1914-15) were quite hot. Is this going to happen again?
Arctic sea ice is largest in extent in the last 8 years. On January 1st it was lowest.
Was that posted here .. of course not. :p
Andy
Phil really gave it away this time. re no Ajax and CT now..hahaha
Gil Dewart (13:04:06) :
I cannot believe that even at midsummer the angle of incidence would allow much if any more heat absorption by the ocean than the ice. Even if it did, the amount of increased radiation of a sea quite a lot warmer than an insulating ice cover would more than make up for any increase.
I reckon that less ice means more cooling, and is thus a negative feedback.
Re: Anu (20:18:12)
Close, but not it. I was thinking about this more recent post for the eggshell part.
Then after you got beat up despite going into your “tetherball” reply mode, you switched over to arguing about all that heat being stored deep in the oceans that has Trenberth in a lather, getting in “the last word” on April 18, while for the WUWT post from April 16 (two days earlier) “NCAR’s missing heat – they could not find it any-where,” where the whole Trenberth thing where he complained about the “missing heat” was discussed and debunked, you were a complete no-show.
Yup, still arguing about all that great and terrible ocean heating while two days earlier everyone else was reading about Trenberth moaning how he doesn’t believe any of the many estimates of ocean heat content are correct, and he knows that missing heat must be somewhere.
Oh, and he also said in the press release mentioned: “Compounding the problem, Earth’s surface temperatures have largely leveled off in recent years. Yet melting glaciers and Arctic sea ice, along with rising sea levels, indicate that heat is continuing to have profound effects on the planet.” And look here, the Arctic sea ice seems to be doing rather well. Well he still has those melting glaciers, that are sublimating in dry winds and getting covered in sunlight-absorbing soot. And the sea levels, whose rate of rise has dramatically slowed down. So I guess his case is still as sound as it ever was.
Thank you for showing up for this post. Wouldn’t be the same without you. Thank you for playing. Have a nice day!
Amino Acids in Meteorites (20:55:31) :
Anu (20:18:12) :
Isn’t it convenient for you to chose 1980 as a starting point when the ‘coming ice age’ scare was ending?
Look at the graph again:
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/ArcticSeaiceVolume/images/BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrent.png
It starts in 1979, not 1980.
Can’t you take more than 3 seconds on a Comment and actually try to get some parts right ?
BTW, that’s when the satellite data started.
The earth started warming naturally in 1980 causing the trend in the graph you presented.
Sure.
“Naturally”.
Those bungling climate scientists sure are lucky that Nature started cooperating and melting Arctic sea ice right after they made CO2 warnings saying that’s how the global warming of the 21st century would start…
Which of “Nature’s” many tricks is she using this time ? 30 years of “just so” weather ? It’s the Arctic winds. No, sunspots. Cosmic rays modulated by solar wind ? Previously unknown very long term period ocean oscillations. Alien devices in the ocean trenches. Oscillating lithosphere heat content…
Grasp as many straws as you want, they’re free.
Is Nature done with melting Arctic sea ice for the next 30 years ? Did she tell you ?
You can ALWAYS be counted on to cherry pick.
Yeah, taking the entire set of Arctic sea ice volume data, instead of the “real” data of 2D area in which there is at least 15% sea ice in little arbitrary grid boxes.
Which by the way, is done differently by different groups:
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png
Oh look, sea ice “extent” of 14.5 million square kilometers.
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm
Oh wait, it’s “really” 13.65 million square kilometers.
Well, which one is it ? And which is the “magic” value that makes it the most for this date in 8 years ?
But I can tell you don’t really know what you are talking about.
Why, did you get a third tier sciencey degree so you think you’re qualified to talk about science ? Read a book or two, did you ?
Anu (23:27:37) :
You did cherry pick the time frame. Was there less Arctic ice during the Medieval Warm Period? How much was there in the 1930’s when the earth was in a warm period? How much was there in the late 1940’s when the earth was cooling? You don’t talk about any other time frame but the last 30 years.
There were very few scientist talking about co2 back then. But I notice you didn’t provide any links to what you say to prove what you say. You could watch The Great Global Warming Swindle to see that there really was only one that was noticed talking about co2 back then.
BTW, I am not replying to you thinking that you are listening to anything I am saying. I know you won’t. I know you are a hardcore radical. You don’t want the science. You don’t care about the science. You misuse science. You care about things other than the science, and other than the truth. You have an agenda.
I am only writing these things for others who may be reading so they can see more than just the propaganda of your side of the issue.
Anu (23:27:37) :
Is Nature done with melting Arctic sea ice for the next 30 years ? Did she tell you ?
It is Al Gore and other alarmists who told you Arctic ice is disappearing. It was not the real data. Because looking at the data anyone can see Arctic ice is increasing.
I see you are putting words in my mouth too. Those who love politics do that a lot. I’ve run into your kind before. In fact, you’re just about the only kind who argue for global warming.
Anu (23:27:37) :
But I can tell you don’t really know what you are talking about.
Why, did you get a third tier sciencey degree so you think you’re qualified to talk about science ?
No. It doesn’t take that much to figure you out.
Anu (23:27:37) :
It’s nice that you talk a lot. People can get a good look at what you’re like.
[ Can you two cool it a bit? Your getting close to personal attacks. -mod]
kadaka (23:16:57) :
Anu is a no show in some threads. But not in this one about Arctic Ice. Arctic Ice is one of global warmings sacred babies. They have to do all they can to make it look like global warming is making Arctic Ice disappear—despite what reality says. They have to tell people to not look at what is really happening but look at what their ‘scientists’ say about Arctic ice, and what their predictions from computers say about it.
And it seems the more they talk the more they feel they are winning the debate.
Anu (23:27:37) :
It starts in 1979, not 1980.
Sort of petty, don’t you think?
BTW, you didn’t tell me what you did to celebrate Lenin’s birthday today.
Anu (23:27:37) :
Your graph is an anomaly graph. Looking at the actual difference in volume (something you didn’t point out) it shows very little volume was lost. But your graph makes it look like a lot. All volume lost was due to natural variations. Arctic Ice does not stay at the same size. Sometimes it increases through time. Sometimes it decreases.
Maybe you can enlarge that graph and then get Al Gore to ride his lift up to the top of it and scare little children.
For anyone replicating my figures for the AMSR-E chart integral, you might have found they were a bit wrong. These are the corrected figures
2003 10.839MsqKm
2004 10.657MsqKm
2005 10.345MsqKm
2006 10.220MsqKm
2007 09.966MsqKm
2008 10.461MsqKm
2009 10.431MsqKm
Who is Andrew J Weaver?
He is an AGW fanatic, and has been for a long time.
He works from the University of Victoria, and this is what they say about themselves:
“The University of Victoria is a leading Canadian research university, and has a reputation as a centre of innovative and interdisciplinary research. UVic researchers are making major contributions, advancing and applying knowledge for the benefit of society. UVic faculty rank among the top universities in Canada in research funding from national granting councils.”
_____________________________________________________
RESEARCH PROPOSALS SUBMITTED AND UNDER REVIEW
2009 Water Security and Community Solutions Network
Letter of Intent submitted to the Network of Centres of Excellence program of the Government of Canada on February 26, 2009.
Network Co-Directors: Andrew Weaver and Rosemary Ommer, The University of Victoria
Co-Applicants: The Directors of Six Regional Nodes including Ralph Matthews as Director of the Node for Western Canada.
The proposed network will focus on the relationship between climate change and water related issues (including fresh water, oceans, and sea ice) as they affect the security and human well-being of communities throughout Canada, as well as those industries (e.g. Hydro Eclectic; Fishing; Forestry; Agriculture; Tourism: Shipping; Vintners) whose economic well-being is also affected by water related issues). The NCE is intended to link science and social science with communities and industries. The approach taken will be largely ‘bottom up’, in that social and economic researchers, working with communities and industries, will identify the critical current and future water related needs and impacts that affect social and economic well-being. Working from the perspectives of these needs and the relevant social and impacts, scientific research will undertake efforts to identify potential solutions that involve both mitigation and adaptation to changing environmental conditions.
Amount of Funding to be Requested: In accordance with NCE guidelines, available funding will be on the scale of $3,000,000.00 per year for five years, potentially renewable after review for an additional five years.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
…As can be seen, a great deal of money and reputations are at stake if the whole “global warming” fraud collapses, and these people have to find some real work of value to do instead of getting paid to spread their alarmist lying propaganda around.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
This is Andrew J Weaver’s contribution to AGW, and the links from his web page to various other institutions:
Andrew J Weaver http://climate.uvic.ca/people/weaver/
School of Earth and Ocean Sciences
University of Victoria
Ocean, Earth & Atmospheric Sciences Building
3800 Finnerty Road (Ring Road)
PO Box 3065 STN CSC
Victoria, BC, V8W 3V6, Canada
Tel: (250) 472-4006; Fax: (250) 472-4004;
I can be reached by email through Wanda Lewis at wlewis@uvic.ca
Book: “Keeping our Cool: Canada in a Warming World”
Available online for CDN$15.20
http://www.chapters.indigo.ca/books/Keeping-Our-Cool-Andrew-Weaver/9780143168256-item.html?ref=Search+Books%3a+%2527Keeping+our+cool%2527
Product Description:
“Monster wildfires in Australia, January golfers in PEI, ruined fruit crops in California, starving polar bears in the North. Climate change is no longer a vague threat. Over the next few centuries climate changes will be greater and occur faster than at any time in 10,000 years. Brilliantly researched, Keeping Our Cool is an engaging examination of global warming, with specific emphasis on Canada. Weaver explains the levels of greenhouse gas emissions needed to stabilize the climate and offers solutions and a path toward a sustainable future.”
Climate Modelling Group
http://wikyonos.seos.uvic.ca/climate-lab.html
Journal of Climate http://jclim.rutgers.edu/
“The Journal of Climate publishes articles on climate research and, therefore, welcomes manuscripts concerned with large-scale variability of the atmosphere, oceans, and land surface; changes in the climate system (including those caused by human activities); and climate simulation and prediction. Papers on the physics, dynamics, and chemistry of the atmosphere of the earth and other planets, with emphasis on the quantitative and deductive aspects of the subject, should be sent to the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences; papers that pertain to weather analysis and prediction and observed and modeled circulations, including techniques development and model validation for both atmosphere and oceans, should be directed to the Monthly Weather Review ; those that are applications oriented (e.g., environmental health, weather modification, air pollution meteorology, hydrology, and agricultural and forest meteorology) and those that are applied climatology research related to the use of climate information in decision making, impact assessments, seasonal climate forecast applications and verification, climate risk and vulnerability, development of climate monitoring tools, urban and local climates, and climate as it relates to the environment and society, should be directed to the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology; those dealing with forecasting techniques and forecasting verification, including mesoscale and synoptic-scale case studies that have direct applicability to forecasting, should be directed to Weather and Forecasting; research emphasizing instrumentation or techniques for acquiring or interpreting data should be sent to the Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology.”
PUblications 1987-2010
http://climate.uvic.ca/people/weaver/weaver-publications.html
Victoria Weather Station
http://www.victoriaweather.ca/
“The UVic School-Based Weather Station Network is made up of stations mounted on schools in and around Victoria, British Columbia, Canada. We have recently expanded the network to include schools in Lake Cowichan, Qualicum and Parksville (see also http://www.nanaimoweather.ca). Data collected at each station are gathered in a central database here at UVic. See About the Network http://www.victoriaweather.ca/about.php for more details and contact information.
We are funded by NSERC PromoScience in partnership with British Columbia School Districts 61 (Victoria), 62 (Sooke), 63 (Saanich), 64 (Gulf Islands), 68 (Nanaimo), 69 (Qualicum), 70 (Alberni), 79 (Cowichan Valley) and AChannel Victoria.”
Anu (23:27:37) :
See geo (16:02:13) .
Anu’s tactic to tackle skeptic is similar to the sort that classical physicist uses to attack quantum mechanic and relativity, as he rely on the use of absurdity by comparing our theory to “Alien devices in the ocean trenches”, as if when something is absurd it ought to be wrong.
One can see this type of methodology in science is quite problematic as the concept of absurdity is quite arbitrary, Aristotle will find Newton mechanic absurd, and so will Newton find Einstein’s. This reason behind this is simply because one will find any theory that does not bare resemblance to what they used to believe absurd, regardless whether their new or old theory is right or not.
I believe in order to establish whether a theory is correct or wrong, we should stick to the matter of fact, and honestly recount what we have seen regardless of how absurd it is. I believe as all the member of the climate skeptic understand that whether the world is continuing to warm or not are not part of our concern. What we are arguing as always is whether carbon dioxide we emitted have anything to do with it. And as the matter of fact shows in Medieval Warming Period and in Mini ice age there is a great change of temperature, more extreme to what we have experience nowadays, despites there is extremely little carbon emition done by human in that period. All this simply show carbon dioxide have little to no correlation to a sudden change of temperature. If you attempt to dispute this fact and still say carbon dioxide causes this change. Then you are basically saying the same thing as Alien device as ocean trench, which is not absurd, but simply not valid.
I have no scientific qualification in university, I am just a undergraduate doing philosophy. But if you want to argue with me about methodology of science I shall not be fear to accept the challenge. As you don’t seems to me to have any type of scientific qualification, as the quality of the post you wrote does not show it, nor you have any common understand of how science actually work, and how to make a sound argument.
(Apology for my poor English, Chinese is my first language. I must admit even people in Mainland China will make better trolling post then the climate alarmist)
Erik (11:48:34) :
I think Bastardi is surprised because he’s mis-labelling what is going on as a recovery. 2007 was an extraordinary event. 2008 and 2009 only took things back to the long term downward trend. The problem was that pro-warmers went crazy for the 2007 result. They should have stuck with the long term trend.
So rather than worrying about what is happening this year or 2007 we should be looking at what’s driving arctic ice. Temperature and winds are well explained. The potential role of PDO is interesting and should become clearer in the next few years.
This graph illustrates my point above
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover_30y.uk.php
Anu (23:27:37)
““Naturally”.
Those bungling climate scientists sure are lucky that Nature started cooperating and melting Arctic sea ice right after they made CO2 warnings saying that’s how the global warming of the 21st century would start…”
Well, we skeptics are just as lucky that, just at the time we get vocal about questioning AGW, around 2006, climate starts cooling and Arctic ice recovering. Maybe climate is driven by who shouts the loudest.
The word “natural” is useless and has no role in scientific dicsussion. It is so subjective and even metaphysical that its presence in climate debate is an embarrassment. Humans (H. sapiens) are part of nature too. Our CO2 emissions are as “natural” as our farts. Its all natural, even nuclear bombs.
Anu (23:27:37) :
Apparently, PIOMAS is a model that hindcasts Ice Volume prior to 2003 by extending the TREND LINE as measured by 2003-2007.
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/ArcticSeaiceVolume/images/IceVolAnomaly19792010.MarNov2.png
as the caption implies:
“Arctic Sea Ice Volume Anomaly from PIOMAS and the NASA ICESat satellite in November for each year relative to the 2003-2007 mean ice volume. ICEsat Ice volume is from Kwok et al. 2009. ”
And the graph you give above:
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/ArcticSeaiceVolume/images/BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrent.png
is the PIOMAS Model output.
Ah, nothing like a Computer Model of an Anomaly to really scare the hide off the uninitiated.
Resistance is Futile, You will be Assimilated:
“The purpose of this page is to visualize recent variations of total Arctic Sea Ice Volume in the context of longer term variability. Arctic Sea Ice Volume is an important indicator of climate change because it accounts for variations in sea ice thickness as well as sea ice extent. Total Arctic sea ice volume cannot currently be observed continuously. Observations from satellites, Navy submarines, moorings, and field measurements are limited in space or time. The assimilation of observations into numerical models, currently provides one way of estimating sea ice volume changes on a continuing basis. Volume estimates using age of sea ice as a proxy for ice thickness are another useful method (see here and here). Comparisons with observations help test our understanding of sea ice conditions in the Arctic.
”
It’s that Captain Dorothy Janeway that did it. Threw a tub of hot water at the Wicked Borg Ice Queen of the North and missed, hitting the Sea Ice instead.
Re Andrew Weaver:
“….for publishing articles that he says ‘poison’ the debate.”
What debate? Haven’t they told us that the science is settled and the debate is over? How can you poison a debate that’s over?
rb Wright…
Normally rational Weather Channel? Which WC are you watching? They’re AGW fan boys there and have been for years.
AndyW (22:16:48) :
Arctic sea ice is largest in extent in the last 8 years. On January 1st it was
lowest.
Was that posted here .. of course not. :p
Andy
Actually, Andy, it was.
Jim Radig (18:57:41) :
Re Pembina –Thanks, that’s appreciated. The bird is not yet in hand, so I’d like to keep your plan in play. Please drop me a line at geo[at]georule.net so I can contact you if necessary.