You gotta love it when the Earth gives back the love, especially today.
Those who have been following NSIDC and JAXA sea ice plots have noted that this has been an extraordinary year so far, with Arctic sea ice hitting the “normal” line on some datasets. Today the Earth gave back more for us.
As of today, JAXA shows that we have more ice than any time on this date for the past 8 years of Aqua satellite measurement for this AMSRE dataset. Yes, it isn’t much, but if this were September, and the sea ice minimum was down by this much compared to all other years, you can bet your sweet bippy we’d see it screamed in news headlines worldwide.
Of course some will argue that it “doesn’t matter” in the context of trend, or that it’s just a “weather” blip. Let us remind our friends of such blips the next time a heat wave or a storm is cited as proof of global warming.
What can be said about the short term trend in Arctic sea ice is that for the past two years, it has recovered from the historic low of 2007. It recovered in 2008, and more in 2009. If today’s Earth Day gift is any indication, it appears that it is on track now for a third year of recovery in 2010 as we’ve been saying at WUWT since fall of 2009.
I’d show NSIDC’s current Arctic Sea Ice graph also, but their website was down earlier today, and the current sea ice graph is not updated. But Steve Goddard has made some comparison overlays that are interesting.
He writes via email:
NSIDC’s web site is down today, but I overlaid DMI on top of the NSIDC graph and it should have hit the mean line today. Same story for JAXA. Images are below.
DMI uses 30% concentration, so their scale is lower than NSIDC and JAXA at 15%. I shifted the DMI data upwards and stretched vertically to visually match the NISDC data.
The second image is JAXA, DMI and NSIDC together. JAXA also needed to be shifted vertically as they apparently use a different algorithm for calculating extent than NSIDC. All three track each other fairly closely during the spring, DMI diverges from the others during the fall freeze up – probably because of the higher concentration requirements.
Blue is NSIDC. Green is JAXA. Black is DMI. The thick black line is the NSIDC mean. The dashed line is the 2007 historic low.
ADDED: Here is a wider view that shows that the three time series match closely over the interval of the NSIDC graph
======================
Happy Earth Day everybody!
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Just me out of 72 responses?
I think you mean 8 years not 9.
AMSR-E only got going in autumn 2002, so that’s only 8 spring seasons, including this one.
Can’t include 2002, cos there’s no AMSR-E spring season data.
[Fixed, thanks. ~dbs]
“pat (13:15:50) :
[…]
Mr. Skar, of Greenpeace, says the industry is rife with financial speculators in flannel shirts: “Carbon cowboys. People from the most bizarre backgrounds. People who have no prior interest in the environment.”.
”
Greenpeace has to say this – they run certification schemes so it’s THEIR market and they need to exclude any competition.
Come on folks! Quit crowing so much. Let’s put of context behind all of this.
1. If some of you are claiming that we’ve hit “normal” as regards arctic sea ice, well just take a step back & lookk at the trend.
2. And surely you’re comparing it with which ever data sets we have at out disposal. Therefore, don’t then discredit those same datasets when the hat doesn’t fit quite so well.
3. For example, as I have pointed out on several occasions, hitting normal for what constitutes a brief moment in the last 9 years does not constitute being “back to normal”. Think carefully about what I have written in point 2 before you respond!!
4, Please, please don’t go down the line yet again of pointing out that our record is so brief that we don’t really know what “normal” actually is. Agreed, yes we don’t know for sure but we do have comparisons from the last 30 years, so let’s use what we’ve got. It’s simply a cop out to dismiss all records on the basis that we’ve not had them long enough.
5. So, in summary, in the same way that we might want to challenge any pro-AGW prodaginists about droughts etc, so we should also challenge any notion that we have hit “normal” as regards arctic sea ice. We can’t have our cake & eat it folks – if we’re claiming “normal” extent, what are we comparing it against?
6. And finally, for all those who would so dearly like to label me as a “warmist” (Heaven forbid!!), I am not. I am a scientist pointing out the obvious & with truly no axe to grind. As far as my own stance is concerned, the science is far from settled. It is too complex for that at this stage but….that statement clearly works equally both ways.
I’m sure it doesn’t count because it’s rotten ice. ;->
Anthony,
I think it should read, “in the last 8 years” not, “in the last 9 years” as there is no JAXA data for April 2002. It starts in June 2002.
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot.csv
[Fixed, thanks. ~dbs]
“Andrew30 (13:06:05) :
DirkH (12:50:38)
“Keep your tongue in check everyone.”
I disagree.
All that evil needs to succeed is for good people to do nothing”
Let me put it this way: Express yourselves in a way that makes it impossible to sue you. Clearer now?
Rick (12:15:29) said:
“This is terrible! How can we convince people that global warming is real when the stupid environment won’t cooperate??”
Simple, Rick.
Just ignore observational data.
Been working so far.
🙂
RockyRoad (13:37:28) : wrote
“What on earth has happened to the SUN? It was supposed to have kicked into the 24th cycle over two years ago, but here it is still doing practically nothing! Folks, I’m getting worried.”
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2008/10jan_solarcycle24/
I’m not worried, but Al Gore sure is. Next winter season is going to be a dozy.
RockyRoad (13:37:28) :Did someone press the brakes on it?
Ben Kellett (13:57:55),
Here’s “normal”: click
It’s all good news for the Arctic Sea Ice:
04,21,2010,13673125
04,21,2009,13527656
04,21,2008,13169219
04,21,2007,12942813
04,21,2006,12962656
04,21,2005,13119375
04,21,2004,12745938
04,21,2003,13392188
Jaxa data is back up.
I’m wondering. Does anyone remember if there was an expression of relief after it was discovered the Earth wasn’t going to plunge directly into an Ice Age after the 70’s??
Or did we simply go from one bummer to the next?
nsid’s web site is down because thay have turned it off and they’re all down at the pub drowning their sorrows trying to work out what went wrong with their predictions
Clearly last year’s recession and the drop in CO2 emissions made the arctic ice recover. Another proof for the direct connection between CO2 emissions and the climate. 😉
Steve Goddard writes via email: [snip]
Selecting parts of a personal email and arguing it online is not appropriate. ~dbs, mod.
DirkH (14:29:43) :
Actually, it was lower in 2004 than in 2007, but nodoby was paying attention.
Ben Kellett (13:57:55) :
4, Please, please don’t go down the line yet again of pointing out that our record is so brief that we don’t really know what “normal” actually is. Agreed, yes we don’t know for sure but we do have comparisons from the last 30 years, so let’s use what we’ve got. It’s simply a cop out to dismiss all records on the basis that we’ve not had them long enough.
++++
Alas, while we have 30 years of data, NSIDC insists on using 22 yrs worth. They know they should use 30 years for calculation of the base-line if it were only a matter of science making the decision. They’ve said so, publicly. But they don’t, because if they did it would create “confusion” (again, their word) when the baseline was suddenly lower and current conditions more often exceeded it. Musn’t muddy their alarmist message to the public, seems to be the “confusion” they are afraid of. Surely it can’t be Gavin and Pielke, Jr who would be “confused”.
The reason I’m worried about the sun is because, as a geologist, I recognize the modus operandi for planet Earth (at least for the past several million years) is COLD, FROZEN, ICY, and MISERABLE (for humans at least). We just happen to be living in one of those tolerably warm breaks that come around about 10% of the time–at the end of it, no less.
I say, let Cycle 24 begin with vigor and, with all this wonderful CO2 floating around, let me get to my gardening! (Last summer saw only 4 days 90 degrees or above where I live, which wasn’t warm enough to grow much.) However, I don’t say this with much enthusiasm.
I’m betting with most of you–Gore is going to be severely disappointed, since this next cycle isn’t going to amount to much and however they want to dismiss and deflect it, I believe the earth’s heater actually is the sun. What a novel theory.
The comments are getting kinda silly now. Really, we still have the May-June “crunch” to go through. And look at 2 to 3 months ago, didn’t make a big deal out of that.
“rbateman (14:36:21) :
DirkH (14:29:43) :
Actually, it was lower in 2004 than in 2007, but nodoby was paying attention”
What you’re looking at? I don’t see that in JAXA or Cryosphere today.
Maybe if I’m right about 2010 minimum, they’ll finally switch to 1981-2010 for 2011. Ending with 2007 and 2008 probably is part of the sour taste in their mouth about doing it given how 2009 went, and 2010 is going so far (even by their own admission, tho carefully blamed on the AO).
Does any graph show the extent within the 30 year context rather than just 22?
“Ben Kellett (13:57:55) :
Come on folks! Quit crowing so much. Let’s put of context behind all of this”
May I remind you that the warmaholics have forecast that the Arctic Ocean will be ice free in the summer in the near future. I have seen dates between 2013 and 2030. Ban Ki Moon visited the Arctic last summer to emphasise how real the danger was of an ice free summer in the near future. He got to about 81 degrees of latitude before the ice was so thick they could get no further in the Norwegian ice breaker.
So what is important to me is to illustrate how unlikely it is that the Arctic Ocean will be ice free in summer in the near future. Never mind what “normal” is.
Whoa. . . just got an email (after over a year of trying) from the Pembina, ND city office promising a MMTS+surroundings picture for next week.
Anthony and Evan may understand that one anyway! 🙂
Communists, socialist warmists playing the age old game of quietly those who oppose their views by “threat” in this case of financial harm. I hope they try to sue someone or company with some spine and dollars, discoveries would certainly be newsworthy. I hope someone takes up a collection jar if needed as i certainly would pay the price of admission to that show.
frederik wisse (13:20:54) : “Comrades let us sing the internationale!”
This is the final struggle
Let us group together, and tomorrow
The Internationale
Will be the human race
As much as I enjoy writing out the lyrics to songs, this one goes a blasted six stanzas (with stuff like: Enslaved masses, arise, arise The world is about to change its foundation), so you only get the refrain.
Happy Earth Day to everyone! I think I will celebrate by going south and giving baby penguins to the killer whales to play with. And I’ll leave the lights on at my house while I do it.