There’s a lot of interest in the blogosphere in sea ice, and the leading authority, NSIDC, only updates one a month. Yet when we reach things like peak ice, or minimum ice, we often find those occur at times when there’s no input from that organization, or others for that matter. So every week, we’ll offer a summary of sea ice news. Of course if something interesting happens, like the Arctic Sea ice line from NSIDC crosses the normal line, we’ll cover that when it happens.
This new feature gives readers a chance to submit artwork to be used as a header graphic if they wish. For example, the Quote of the Week graphic was provided by WUWT reader “Boudu”. If you have graphical skills and ideas, feel free to post them up to tinypic.com or photobucket etc and provide a link in comments below. – Anthony
WUWT Sea Ice News by Steven Goddard
Al Gore calls it global warming. Bill Clinton calls it springtime. Others call it a death spiral, tipping point, or point of no return. Whatever you call it, the Arctic has started to melt and has lost about a million km2 of ice since the peak. The NSIDC graph below does not hide the decline.

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_timeseries.png
I just measured today’s NSIDC sea ice. It has passed the median line, though would require several similar days to appear in their moving average graph.
The image below shows where ice has melted and grown during the past 12 days. Areas in red have declined, and areas in green have increased in extent.
The decline in Bering Sea ice is due to much warmer air that has arrived this week. The sea of Okhotsk remains very cold and has gained some ice near the north end.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/sfctmpmer_01a.fnl.anim.html
Sea ice remains nearly one million km2 ahead of 2007, and the map below shows where ice has gained and been lost relative to 2007. Green is growth, red is decline.
The map below shows areas of excess and deficient ice relative to the median. Green shows excess ice and red shows deficient. As of today, there is more excess ice than deficient ice. NSIDC uses a moving average, so it would take several days of similar conditions for it to show up in their graphs.
Five years ago, Steve Connor at The Independent feared that the Arctic had “irreversibly” “tipped” “past the point of no return”, but now it looks like the reports of the Arctic’s death were exaggerated.
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stevengoddard (10:03:38) :
Can you imagine anyone signing up to spend their time desperately trying to keep bad news alive? That could probably be described as a form of mental illness.
Evolutionary responses to adversity. The fight / flight response is
like a drug to some. They like to have the crap scared out of them
and others, for the high, and observe the collective response. The
ones that scare me are the sociopaths that never experience the
feeling, but use the fear response to manipulate others.
”
And Antarctic Sea Ice Extent is currently slightly below “average”:
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_stddev_timeseries.png
These must be confusing days for the rapid sea ice decline crowd…”
Not really, take a look at the medium term picture.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.arctic.png
Blinkers (11:25:29),
Let’s look at the global picture, since your graph is cherry-picking: click
R. Gates “and more importantly, the very long and deep solar minimum” This is a completely contradiction of the AGW hypothesis that the sun has NO effect on climate or ice. Or have you/they changed your/their minds now? Thanks keep it up your really helping my skeptic agenda with such lucid info
The climate is getting rather boring these days. There used to be a time it required a science degree to understand why the science was wrong and a degree & years of experience in weather instrumentation to understand why the temperature was wrong.
Now anyone can just look at the graphs and see for themselves.
Why are we stuck using the NSIDC graph’s 1979-2000 average? What would the 1989-2009 average look like in comparison to current ice levels? My guess is that we would now be far beyond the average.
But why stop there? Why are we stuck with the 1970-2000 average used virtually across the board for global temperature anomaly? How about 1980-2009? My guess is that such a graph would better reflect the lack of significant warming over the last decade.
Also I’m sure R Gates knows much more than R Spencer anyway..
http://exponent.uah.edu/?p=2565 LOL
latitude said:
“To suggest that the arctic sea ice is still not in peril is misleading”
Keeping in mind that the climate is never static, can’t be static, shouldn’t be static……..
….if it was, we would not be here.
Never in the history of man, that I’m aware of, has a good thing been portrayed as such a catastrophe.
————
All quite true. Change is the only constant, and though I happen to think that AGWT is likely correct, I really haven’t even given thought to whether it would be good or bad to have an ice free arctic. Perhaps there would be positives and negatives for humans and other species. Taken as a whole, I think warmth is better than cold (agreeing with Willis et. al on this point at least).
When I say the arctic sea ice is “in peril”, I only mean the ice itself as existing. I didn’t say the arctic ecosystem, for if the ice is gone, the arctic ecosystem will change and adapt to the warmth, and like in all changes, some species will vanish and others will flourish. Most the species that have ever existed on this planet no longer exist– all mainly because of some form of climate change. The only difference this time of course could be that human activity will cause the change. Assuming we’re around 50,000 years from now, when the next Milankovitch cycle would bring about the advance of glaciers, we’d probably be glad for a every bit of CO2 that we could muster into the atmosphere…but by that time, we’d probably be so proficient at terraforming and geoengineering that we’d have no problem mitigating even the worst of the next glacial period.
Blinkers (11:25:29) :
“Not really, take a look at the medium term picture.”
How about the big picture, i.e. Global Sea Ice Area:
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg
Looks quite average…
With a reasonable knowledge that the data is not going to be any good, the best interval to average over would be the 60 year AMO cycle. If nothing else, it would rub people’s noses in the fact that it exists, and that it effects the northern polar ice extent.
AS WUWT has pointed out, Arctic sea-ice “extent” is a misleading measure compared to sea-ice area. “Extent” depicts sea-ice borders, emphasizing northerly contraction or southerly expansion– but such borders ignore borderlines’ interior. The extreme case would be where sea-ice bounds surrounded an ice-free Arctic Ocean, so that wide extent corresponded to radically reduced area.
Gradations of this impossible extreme should thus significantly differentiate sea-ice area from extent. Due to coastline irregularities and other factors, geologic Area is a far more objective and reliable measure than Extent. A historical table setting one measure beside the other, registering proportional differences, would be a useful comparative exercise.
Stephan said :
R. Gates “and more importantly, the very long and deep solar minimum” This is a completely contradiction of the AGW hypothesis that the sun has NO effect on climate or ice. Or have you/they changed your/their minds now? Thanks keep it up your really helping my skeptic agenda with such lucid info.
———
Stephan, do you know anything at all about any of the AGW models, or are you just talking from what you’ve read on blogs or heard of Faux News? The effects of solar cycles has long been taken into account in AGW models, and even can be reflected quite nicely in graphs such as this, charting solar cycles versus global temps;
http://www.climate4you.com/Sun.htm#Global temperature and sunspot number
AGW models never have excluded the effects of the sun, either in the shorter term, such as the 11 year solar cycle, or the longer term, in such things as the Milankovitch cycles. The primary focus of the research has been to dissect out the signal of antropogenic green house gases from the rest of the climate influences, both long and short term. In addition to the solar cycles there are so many other natural variables such as ENSO, PDO, AMO, volcanic activity, GCR’s, and on and on. All these natural fluctuations, lasting over the longer term and the shorter term are put into the models, along with increasing GHG concentrations.
It is so naive and just plain misleading to think that something as obvious as solar cycles are not part of the models, and completely a mistatement to say that AGW models don’t account for any influence from solar cycles…they do, but treat it as noise on top of a much stronger influence from GHG concentrations.
Think of it this way:
Milankovitch cycles work over very long term (10,000-100,000 years with a very strong climate effect)
Green House gases work over the medium term (20-1000+ years with a strong climate effect)
PDO, AMO, etc. work over years to decades (10-20 years with moderate climate effect)
Solar cycles, volanoes, ENSO work over years (1-11 years with weak to moderate climate effect)
data selected from
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot.csv
Sea Ice for April 17th: – Sept. minimum:
04,17,2003,13535313 – 09,18,2003,6032031
04,17,2004,12879531 – 09,11,2004,5784688
04,17,2005,13111563 – 09,22,2005,5315156
04,17,2006,12997813 – 09,14,2006,5781719
04,17,2007,12954063 – 09,24,2007,4254531
04,17,2008,13378906 – 09,09,2008,4707813
04,17,2009,13601094 – 09,13,2009,5249844
04,17,2010,13766406 – ?
At this stage, the outlook is promising for more recovery.
Survey say awaits September.
Well, I won’t claim to be a professional artist or Graphic Designer, but I tried something simple. Let me know if you like it, Anthony.
http://i40.tinypic.com/160y3vc.jpg
Daniel M (11:40:50) :
Why are we stuck using the NSIDC graph’s 1979-2000 average? What would the 1989-2009 average look like in comparison to current ice levels? My guess is that we would now be far beyond the average.
Really, beware what you wish for:
http://iup.physik.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/ice_ext_n.png
http://iup.physik.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/ice_ext_s.png
R. Gates, I find follwing this chart gives me about 5 days advance notice as to what the N. seaice will be like. It is starting to head “south” again, so I would expect the extent coverage to gain a bit once more.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
Stephan (11:38:09) :
R. Gates “and more importantly, the very long and deep solar minimum” This is a completely contradiction of the AGW hypothesis that the sun has NO effect on climate or ice.
Stephan –
Let’s not over-simplify the arguments here. I don’t think it’s a common view among those favoring AGW that the sun has no effect on climate. I think a more accurate representation is that the solar variation over the last ~30 years is near trend-less, and is insufficient to account for the increase in global temperature over that interval. See e.g. http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2008/08/reference-graphs-total-solar-irradiance.html
It’s important to make one’s best efforts to represent fairly any opposing arguments. Straw men — on either side of the fence — don’t help the discussion.
In the light of that big belch from iceland, any stabilization and improvement of ice extent this summer will be tagged as ” inspite the death spiral, there is a temporary relief due to the volcanic explosion “. So, the AGW crowd gets 1 or more years of reprieve…. atleast in the MSM and all these moronic Govt types
stevengoddard (10:03:38) wrote: “Can you imagine anyone signing up to spend their time desperately trying to keep bad news alive? That could probably be described as a form of mental illness.”
They do it on Wall Street all the time. They do it for profits from shorting.
Same basic thing here, but the goal is both power and money.
And of course there is basic human factors that D. King (11:20:45) just alluded to. Strengthens the ‘us v them’ group bonding and curtails that bothersome rational thinking that stands in the way of sheep herding.
Summed up in the question: why are doomsday cults so popular?
Back OT, these updates are going to be great for judging the weekly doomsday stories that will come from the MSM’s ice cap fixation, even though focusing so closely on short term variations is one of the roots of the whole problem here. But since that is what the AGW gang does this provides needed ammunition.
Thanks!
Sea ice remains nearly one million km2 ahead of 2007
As has been mentioned many times before it’s not just the extent that counts, here’s a comparison with Western Arctic ice between 2007 and today.
http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/www_archive//AOI_10/Charts/sc_a10_20070423_WIS56SD.gif
http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/WIS56SD/20100412180000_WIS56SD_0004918592.gif
The NW Passage shows significantly less old ice and there seems to be a good chance of the northern route opening this year.
Always so negative phil
R. Gates (10:36:41) :
…but prior to 2007, the AGW models were suggesting that arctic would be ice free in the summers by 2100, but now the range in more in the 2030 range.
Is that due to a change in the models, a change in the observations, or a panic effort to help push Cap ‘n’ Trade?
TFN Johnson
The sun has been spotless for a few days, but a weekly update of a graph of cycle 24 compared to others in history would be useful.
This is the best site for an accurate comparison of historical cycles as it adjusts for the fact that historical readings were made using a small refractor telescope projected onto a piece of paper and not satellite images. The sunspecks not visible from earth are discounted.
http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/50
It is looking pretty bad in the real world but the warmists keep trying to big it up.
Last year, at the end of April, the Arctic sea ice extent was even closer to the 1979-2000 average than it is likely to be at the end of April this year:
http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/20090804_Figure2.png
The ice then went on to the 3rd smallest summer minimum extent in the 30 year satellite record:
http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/20091005_Figure2.png
If the end of April sees less ice than last year, do you really think the summer minimum will be more ice than last year? Do you have some 5 month weather forecast?
Ah, ease up, A; it’s rough on him that the poles are so disobedient.
==================
Not news, but just a pic, you might be able to use. USS Burton Island, exploring the Arctic around 1957. Family photo. http://i79.photobucket.com/albums/j155/43gm94l/History/Navy/burtonisland.jpg