Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
A while back in the US there was an ad for a hamburger chain. It featured an old lady who bought a competitor’s hamburger with a great big hamburger bun. But when she opened it up she asked …
I got to thinking about this in the context of whether there is any real danger in a degree or two of average temperature rise, or whether it’s a big bun with no beef. In my previous post, “Lies, Damned Lies, Statistics … and Graphs”, I closed by saying:
My conclusion? Move along, folks, nothing to see here …
A commenter took exception to this, saying
When talking about global average temperatures, tenths of a degree really do matter.
Now, if tenths of a degree changes over a century “matter” for the globe, they certainly must matter for parts of the globe.
So here’s your pop quiz for the day: Which US State warmed the most, which cooled the most, and by how much?
To answer this, I used the USHCN State Temperature Database. Here are my findings:
Figure 1. Temperature trends by state, USHCN data. Seven states cooled, and forty-one warmed.
The state that warmed the most was North Dakota (top center), which warmed 1.4°C per century. The state that cooled the most was Alabama (middle of three dark blue states, lower right). It cooled by 0.3°C/century.
To compare with my previous post, here’s a similar graph, of the decadal changes in North Dakota by month.
Figure 2. North Dakota decadal average temperatures by month, 1900-2009. Red line is the average for the decade 2000-2009. Photo is an old North Dakota farmhouse.
As with the US, for much of the year there is little change, and the warming is in November to February. Note that unlike the US, during that four months, the temperature of North Dakota is below freezing (32°F) …
Now, if tenths of a degree “matter”, if they are as important as the commenter claimed, we should have seen some problems in North Dakota. After all, it has warmed by 1.6°C since 1895. That’s almost three times the global average warming.
But somehow, I must have missed all of the headlines about the temperature calamities that have befallen the poor residents of the benighted state of North Dakota. I haven’t seen stories about them being “climate refugees”. I didn’t catch the newspaper articles about how it has been so hard on the farmers and the frogs. I am unaware of folks moving in droves to Alabama, which has cooled by -0.4° since 1895, and thus should be the natural refuge of those fleeing the thermal holocaust striking North Dakota.
In fact, I don’t remember seeing anything that would support the commenter’s claims that tenths of a degree are so important. North Dakota has warmed near the low end of the range forecast by the IPCC for the coming century, and there have been no problems at all that I can find. So I have to say, as I said before,
My conclusion? Move along, folks, nothing to see here … where’s the beef?
APPENDIX: R Code for the US Map
(I think this is turnkey. Sometimes WordPress puts in extra line breaks. If so, it is also available as a Word document here.)
The code requires that you download the USHCN Temperature Data cited above and save it as a “Comma Separated Values” (CSV) file. I downloaded it, opened it in Excel. I split it using “Text to Columns …” into the following columns, as detailed in the USHCN ReadMe file:
FILE FORMAT:
STATE-CODE 1-3 STATE-CODE as indicated in State Code Table above. Range of values is 001-110.
DIVISION-NUMBER 4 DIVISION NUMBER. Value is 0 which indicates an area-averaged element.
ELEMENT-CODE 5-6
02 = Temperature (adjusted for time of observation bias)
YEAR 7-10 This is the year of record. Range is 1895 to current
year processed.
JAN-VALUE 11-17 Monthly Temperature format: Range of values -50.00 to 140.00 degrees Fahrenheit. Decimals retain a position in the 7-character field. Missing values in the latest year are indicated by -99.90.
FEB-VALUE 18-24
MAR-VALUE 25-31
APR-VALUE 32-38
MAY-VALUE 39-45
JUNE-VALUE 46-52
JULY-VALUE 53-59
AUG-VALUE 60-66
SEPT-VALUE 67-73
OCT-VALUE 74-80
NOV-VALUE 81-87
DEC-VALUE 88-94
If that is too complex, the CSV file is here.
Here’s the R code:
# The code requires that you download
# the USHCN Temperature Data
# and save it as a "Comma Separated Values" (CSV) file.
# I downloaded it, opened it in Excel, and used
# "Save As ..." to save
# it as "USHCN temp.csv"
#Libraries needed
library("mapdata")
library("mapproj")
library("maps")
# Functions
regm =function(x) {lm(x~c(1:length(x)))[[1]][[2]]}
#Read in data
tempmat=read.csv('USHCN temp.csv')
# Replace no data code -99.9 with NA
tempmat[tempmat==-99.9]=NA
# split off actual temps
temps=tempmat[,5:16]
# calculate row averages
tempavg=apply(temps,1,FUN=mean)
# calculate trends in °C by state
temptrends=round(tapply(tempavg,as.factor(tempmat[,1]),regm)*100*5/9,2)
# split off states from regional and national
statetrends=temptrends[1:48]
#calculate ranges for colors
statemax=max(statetrends)
statemin=min(statetrends)
statefract=(statetrends-statemin)/staterange
#set color ramp
myramp=colorRamp(c("blue","white","yellow","orange","darkorange","red"))
# assign state colors
mycol=myramp(statefract)
# names of the states (north michigan is missing for ease of programming)
myregions=c("alabama", "arizona", "arkansas", "california", "colorado", "connecticut", "delaware",
"florida", "georgia", "idaho", "illinois", "indiana", "iowa", "kansas", "kentucky", "louisiana", "maine",
"maryland", "massachusetts:main", "michigan:south", "minnesota", "mississippi", "missouri", "montana", "nebraska",
"nevada", "new hampshire", "new jersey", "new mexico", "new york:main", "north carolina:main", "north dakota",
"ohio", "oklahoma", "oregon", "pennsylvania", "rhode island", "south carolina", "south dakota", "tennessee", "texas",
"utah", "vermont", "virginia:main", "washington:main", "west virginia", "wisconsin", "wyoming")
# draw map
par(mar=c(6.01,2.01,4.01,2.01))
return=map('state',regions=myregions, exact=T,projection='mercator',fill=T,
mar=c(5.01,8.01,4.01,2.01),col=rgb(mycol,maxColorValue=255),ylim=c(10,60))
# set up legend boxes
xlref=-.48
yb=.37
ht=.05
wd=.08
textoff=.025
# assign legend labels
mylabels=round(seq(from=statemin,by=staterange/12,length.out=13),2)
#draw legend
myindex=0
for (i in seq(from=xlref,by=wd,length.out=12)){
xl=i
xr=xl+wd
yt=yb+ht
rectcolor=myramp(myindex/11)
rect(xl,yb,xr,yt,col=rgb(rectcolor,maxColorValue=255))
text(xl,yb-textoff,mylabels[myindex+1],cex=.65)
myindex=myindex+1
}
text(xl+wd,yb-textoff,mylabels[myindex+1],cex=.65)
# add annotations
text(0,1.08,"US Temperature Trends (°C/century)")
text(0,1.03,"USHCN Dataset, 1895-2009",cex=.8)
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magicjava,
Now I’m hungry! And it’s not even 6 a.m. here.
Has aybody thought to ask how accurate were the thermometers used to measure the temperatures in 1895, or if they are still in existence, can they be compared to todays thermometers.
I just don’t get that logic; I think the glacier melt argument is a deliberate diversion, throwing sand in the faces of those who don’t stop to think critically for a moment. If the glacier is below zero, then nothing will happen to it until it gets above zero. The only melt will be du to direct insolation.
I wonder what is driving us stupid Canadians to Florida and Arizona every winter in droves. I don’t think we are fleeing the heat waves of November through April up here.
Bill Tuttle (03:00:07) :
Since I live in NJ, I too noted that the degree of claimed warming is much greater than the surrounding states especially Pa. You may be right with UHI but I suspect that other factors may also be in play.
For example I was investigating following up on a station in Monmouth County very near the ocean, but then Anthony advised me that this station was dropped as an official station. I even wrote an e-mail to the university where the station is located without reply. On the east coast we all know how much cooler it is close to the ocean and selectively dropping such stations may meet an objective.
Willis,
Was it you or the USHCN that forgot about the existence of Michigan’s upper peninsula? I’ll assume you meant CONUS so that the absence of Alaska and Hawai’i are understandable. I guess in looking at your code you have a comment about leaving out “northern michigan” for programming ease (though most in Michigan usually refer to the northern and southerns halves of the lower peninsula as northern and southern Michigan, respectively, and upper peninsula simply as the UP.
I live in Nevada, and I can attest to the fact that we no longer have glaciers. Our malaria rates have tripled. Climate refugees have poured into Las Vegas from cooler neighboring California. Weather stations have been forced to be located inbetween airport runways.
And there’s a chance of snow Monday thru Tuesday night according to Wunderground….
Koba,
Mercury thermometers are relatively easy to calibrate. They are accurate to well within 1°C if done properly.
Calibration consisted of an ice bath for 0°C, and boiling water at sea level for 100°C.
Today greater accuracy is possible, but the old mercury thermometers were more than adequate to record accurate temperatures and temperature trends.
And yes, the old mercury thermometers are still in existence. Check out ebay.
Most of the warming in North Dakota occurred prior to 1930. Over the last 25 years (during the period of maximum CO2 growth) there has been no warming.
http://climvis.ncdc.noaa.gov/tmp/graph-Apr1608:53:480533447265.gif
Willis,
Nice work, as always. On a related point, climate scientists have this nasty tendency to ambiguate their own data. Instead of recording actual temperature measurements, they take two or more measurements for each day and average them. What genius came up with this idea? An individual measurement is an empirical fact. An averaged measurement is a human contrivance subject to human whim. Please, climate scientists, stick with the empirical facts. Resist the intrusion of human whim. In practical terms, the averaged temperature measurements are highly likely to hide the heat island effect. The average measurements take a daylight reading and a nighttime reading and average them. Yet the heat island effect is most likely to show in the nighttime reading and its prominence is hidden by the averaging. In conclusion, please climate scientists, stick with the empirical facts and resist the human contrivances.
Vincent,
You said: “Most people say the opposite. The problem with your theory is that the forcing due to GHG is constant, at about 1.5 W/M^2. During the summer, insolation is very high, maybe 500 W/M^2 so the proportion added to by CO2 is very small. In winter however, insolation may be only 100 W/M^2 and the addition made by CO2 is proportionally greater. Even more, during winter, absolute humidity is lower, so the proportion of CO2/H2O is greater than during summer.”
I think you need to rethink your hypothesis or your source. When acting as a GHG, CO2 absorbs and re-emits heat radiated from the Earth’s surface. This forcing is therefore DIRECTLY proportional to the power emitted by the surface, which is proportional to the fourth power of the surface temperature. Since the surface of the earth in the northern hemisphere is decidedly colder during the nothern hemisphere winter than it is in the northern hemisphere summer your statement above is an absolute non-starter. I’m not suggesting the statement your replying to might not be an oversimplification of the physics, but I think you need to take a look at your figures again.
Looks like the next ice age will begin in the Deep South. 😉
quote Smokey (05:38:55) :
magicjava,
Now I’m hungry! And it’s not even 6 a.m. here.
Also solution for global warming. Put polar bears and ice caps on cool side, tropics on the hot side.
The hot stays hot and the cool stays cool.
There are no problems that Jason Alexander cannot solve.
Smokey (05:51:51) :
Koba,
Mercury thermometers are relatively easy to calibrate. They are accurate to well within 1°C if done properly.
Calibration consisted of an ice bath for 0°C, and boiling water at sea level for 100°C.
Today greater accuracy is possible, but the old mercury thermometers were more than adequate to record accurate temperatures and temperature trends.
___________________________________________________________________
Then the questions become those of QC on both the observers part and the encoders part.
Given this is YAGG (Yet Another Governmental Group) effort, I need to round up a pinch (or ton) of salt to go with those fries.
Another good post, Willis, which tells it the way it is.
My beef is the way that the public face of climate change has been simplified to the level of using global mean temperature anomaly as the main diagnostic.
GMT is a poor proxy for indicating the state of Earth’s energy balance at any moment in time, even if we could find an economic way of measuring it accurately. Climate scientists need to be challenged on the value of this metric to our understanding of what climate oscillation means.
Also worth noting that North Dakota winter temperatures have been declining over the last 25 years.
http://climvis.ncdc.noaa.gov/tmp/graph-Apr1609:09:475862121582.gif
The data show RI also is a high warming state; in fact, the highest of all the Northeast states. Some of this is due to the location of one of its three stations at the state airport situated in an urbanized location. The other two stations – one somewhat rural and the other on an offshore island – show warming trends that are not as strong, but are positive nonetheless. Monitoring of the primary geographic feature of RI, Narragansett Bay, for the past 40 years has shown that the temperature increase of Bay waters is highly correlated to changes in the marine ecosystem and species composition.
While I find Willis’ posts well-reasoned and informative, in this case he may be missing the boat, at least as pertains to local effects of temperature change over time. We’re not debating the cause of the change here (I think it’s a combination of natural and artificial sources, btw); we’re talking about local effects that impact livelihoods (commercial fishing) and quality of life (fish kills from summertime oxygen depletion). These aren’t caused by warming alone, of course, but warming contributes to the problem. A generalized analysis like this is a starting point. It may not be fine enough of a sieve, however, to come the conclusion that there’s no “beef” here.
I take the point you make with the article but I’m a little concerned about the graph you’ve started using (such as fig 2).
Surely the thickness of the lines represent about 1 degree, you’re not going to see much in terms of trends that way. Is that your intention?
Secondly I don’t think it’s the temp over Dakota per se that is the issue but the effect on sea levels etc that matters.
This is mildly humorous but not really a serious look at the subject.
North Dakota is just south of Winnipeg, Manitoba, known as the land of the triple forties:
+40 C in the summer, -40 C in the winter, and 40 km/hr winds all of the time.
Ten degrees (C) of warming from November thru March would justify a new Provincial holiday to celebrate the milder winters!
Smokey (05:51:51) : Mercury thermometers are relatively easy to calibrate. They are accurate to well within 1°C if done properly. Today greater accuracy is possible, but the old mercury thermometers were more than adequate to record accurate temperatures and temperature trends.
Yet we’ve sifted out just 0.6C and deem that we are heading for catastrophe? The thermometers are accurrate to within 1C? I have birdges and swamp land for sale if anybody is interested.
North Dakota?
Hot?
You can buy a coffee mug in Bismarck that makes the point:
“35 below keeps the riff raff away”
One would expect that they would revel in a little global warming.
Regards,
Steamboat Jack
urederra (04:05:36) :
This from The Guardian….
Global warming monitoring needs to find ‘missing heat’, say scientists
Kevin Trenberth and John Fasullo, climate scientists at the National Centre for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, say that only about half of the heat believed to have built up in the Earth in recent years can be accounted for. New instruments are needed to locate and monitor this missing heat, they say, which could be storing up trouble for the future.
Give them funding quick!
No, they can’t do that. They got Nevada too. Look at that broiling sea of Red.
Alas, poor Winnemucca:
http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/TempGr/Winn1.GIF
Oh the humanity.
Tenths of a degree is nothing. In the data I’m analyzing I’ve seen a 5C difference on the same day only a few hours drive from each other. One only has to watch the weather channel to see several degrees difference in close proximity locations.
Tenths of a degree in the AVERAGE of the year means is nothing. You can get that kind of increase from a single month in the year being a little less colder at night.
HR….Do glacials occur? When was the last one? How long has sea level been rising? Do you really think that mankind can reverse a trend in sea levels that has been occurring for 1000’s of years? Good luck with that. Adapt!