Solar Science Bipolar Disorder
Guest post by Steven Goddard
About once every 11 years, the sun’s magnetic poles reverse. However some high profile solar scientists reverse their own polarity more frequently.
The BBC reported Wednesday that Mike Lockwood at the University of Reading has established a statistical link between cold weather and low solar activity.
The UK and continental Europe could be gripped by more frequent cold winters in the future as a result of low solar activity, say researchers.
“By recent standards, we have just had what could be called a very cold winter and I wanted to see if this was just another coincidence or statistically robust,” said lead author Mike Lockwood, professor of space environment physics at the University of Reading, UK.
To examine whether there was a link, Professor Lockwood and his co-authors compared past levels of solar activity with the Central England Temperature (CET) record, which is the world’s longest continuous instrumental record of such data.
The researchers used the 351-year CET record because it provided data that went back to the beginning of the Maunder Minimum, a prolonged period of very low activity on the Sun that lasted about half a century.
“Frost fayres” were held on the Thames during the Maunder Minimum
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The Maunder Minimum occurred in the latter half of the 17th Century – a period when Europe experienced a series of harsh winters, which has been dubbed by some as the Little Ice Age. Following this, there was a gradual increase in solar activity that lasted 300 years.
Professor Lockwood explained that studies of activity on the Sun, which provides data stretching back over 9,000 years, showed that it tended to “ramp up quite slowly over about a 300-year period, then drop quite quickly over about a 100-year period”.
He said the present decline started in 1985 and was currently about “half way back to a Maunder Minimum condition”. More at the BBC
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His study was basically a rehash of what many others have done previously over the past few centuries, but he has the BBC’s ear – because in 2007 he prominently claimed just the opposite.
No Sun link’ to climate change
Tuesday, 10 July 2007
“This should settle the debate,” said Mike Lockwood
Similarly, in 2006 David Hathaway at NASA reported that the Sun’s conveyor belt had “slowed to a record low.”
May 10, 2006: The Sun’s Great Conveyor Belt has slowed to a record-low crawl, according to research by NASA solar physicist David Hathaway. “It’s off the bottom of the charts,” he says. “This has important repercussions for future solar activity.”
Then on March 12, 2010 he reported the exact opposite:
March 12, 2010: In today’s issue of Science, NASA solar physicist David Hathaway reports that the top of the sun’s Great Conveyor Belt has been running at record-high speeds for the past five years.
In 1810, the great English astronomer William Herschel established a link between sunspot activity and the price of grain in Europe – a proxy for climate. As far as we know, he never reversed polarity on that belief. Modern solar science is just coming around to what Herschel hypothesized 200 years ago.
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UPDATE: Full Lockwood et al paper at Environmental Research Letters here
Abstract. Solar activity during the current sunspot minimum has fallen to levels unknown since the start of the 20th century. The Maunder minimum (about 1650–1700) was a prolonged episode of low solar activity which coincided with more severe winters in the United Kingdom and continental Europe. Motivated by recent relatively cold winters in the UK, we investigate the possible connection with solar activity. We identify regionally anomalous cold winters by detrending the Central England temperature (CET) record using reconstructions of the northern hemisphere mean temperature. We show that cold winter excursions from the hemispheric trend occur more commonly in the UK during low solar activity, consistent with the solar influence on the occurrence of persistent blocking events in the eastern Atlantic. We stress that this is a regional and seasonal effect relating to European winters and not a global effect. Average solar activity has declined rapidly since 1985 and cosmogenic isotopes suggest an 8% chance of a return to Maunder minimum conditions within the next 50 years (Lockwood 2010 Proc. R. Soc. A 466 303–29): the results presented here indicate that, despite hemispheric warming, the UK and Europe could experience more cold winters than during recent decades.
Figure 2 from the paper:
- Figure 2. Variations since the mid-17th century of the following. (a) The mean northern hemisphere temperature anomaly, ΔTN: black shows the HadCRUT3v compilation of observations [17, mauve shows the median of an ensemble of 11 reconstructions (individually intercalibrated with the HadCRUT3v NH data over the interval 1850–1950) based on tree ring and other proxy data [18–23]. The decile range is given by the area shaded grey (between upper and lower decile values of ΔTU and ΔTL). (b) Average winter Central England Temperatures (CET) [5, 6] for December, January and February, TDJF. (c) The open solar flux, FS, corrected for longitudinal solar wind structure: dots are annual means of interplanetary satellite data; the black line after 1905 is derived from ground-based geomagnetic data [1]; and the mauve line is a model based on observed sunspot numbers [14]. Both curves show 1 year means. (d) Detrended winter CET, δTDJF, obtained by subtracting the best-fit variation of ΔTN, derived using the regressions shown in figure 3(b): the width of the line shows the difference resulting from the use of ΔTN = ΔTU and ΔTN = ΔTL prior to 1850. In all panels, dots are for years with δTDJF < 1 °C (the dashed horizontal line in (d)), colour-coded by year using the scale in figure 3(a). Data for the winter 2009/10 are provisional.”]
Dave Harrison at 22:32 says: “We all know what’s coming next: “if it wasn’t for the decrease in the Sun’s activity we would all have been fried due to increased carbon dioxide emissions so a carbon tax is more urgent than ever.”
Yeah, Dave you’re right…. I hate to say it, but yes, I have already heard a variation of that from some of my friends who are convinced of AGW.
Mike Haseler (03:35:04) :
[off topic. how about tips and notes? oh and it’s on the front page of every news site ~ ctm]
[still off topic. how about tips and notes? put in tips and notes ~ ctm]
I note he made sure to make an offering to appease the AGW deities, lest he anger them and suffer a reduction in their blessings. This past winter is a great example of why using ‘average’ anything can be very misleading, just like the ‘average’ temperature on Mercury is about 234F (-300 nighttime vs 765 daytime), what does that tell you about the planets energy budget? Not a whole lot, really.
BBC would never have put the story up if it hadn’t contained the following :- “But they added that the phenomenon only affected a limited region and would not alter the overall global warming trend.”
Same old same old – move along nothing to see here.
I am amazed by the continued claim that the effects of the Maunder Minimum were “european only”. This has always been a bit of handwaving to try and help explain away the MWP – if they admitted that the Maunder effects were global, they would have to admit that the sun affects global temperatures. No, no, can’t do that.
The very simple reason it appeared to be concentrated in Europe is because Europe was the only area of the world measuring and recording reliable temperature records at the time. Remember, this is the century *before* North America began to be widely settled by Europeans. (A handful of struggling coastal settlements was all at that time) And who was around to know if Siberia or either pole was extra cold or not during the Maunder?
They are using the excuse of having no records for these areas to claim that this “proves” that the cooling off didn’t happen there.
I find a better correlation between spotless days, or sun cycle length, and temperature than between sunspot # or integrated flux and temperature–looking at multidecadal averages. There is a delay, as it takes a while for the oceans to warm or cool to move toward a new setpoint and equilibrium. Spotless days/ cycle length, by the way, correlate better to temperatures than carbon dioxide level does, so the “no correlation” argument cuts sharper that way.
But the caveat to it all is that global temperature data is highly manipulated junk. U.S. Temperatures are a little more believable, though not uncorrupted by station location problems, as Anthony revealed to the world.
Yes I should be taking a shot across Leif’s bows but way OT seems more relevant. It’s worth checking Icecap for recent SPPI publications….
Yes Leif, I still respect Mr. Sun’s right to scientific representation. A correlation between localized temperatures and solar cycles could lead to pointed questions about what moderates free oscillators (Babcock) in said cycles. L…? Barry someone…? Sorry, couldn’t resist 😉
Leif,
From NASA Science News:
What is hilarious is the claim that the sun only affects Europe’s climate, and it has nothing to do with the whole planet.
See the graphs on page 3 of the following link. For 1000 years there has been a correlation between solar activity and the Andes glaciers and temperature proxies from other areas.
http://aps.arxiv.org/PS_cache/arxiv/pdf/0804/0804.1938v1.pdf
The abstract of the Lockwood et al. paper says:
“We stress that this is a regional and seasonal effect relating to European winters and not a global effect. Average solar activity has declined rapidly since 1985 and cosmogenic isotopes suggest an 8% chance of a return to Maunder minimum conditions within the next 50 years (Lockwood 2010 Proc. R. Soc. A 466 303–29): the results presented here indicate that, despite hemispheric warming, the UK and Europe could experience more cold winters than during recent decades.”
So they “stress” that this is “not a global effect”. I fail to understand how this can be known and, therefore, how it can be stressed on the basis of the study they conducted.
Their paper reports that they studied the Central England Temperature (CET) and obtained a correlation between “the seasonal December/January/February (DJF) means, TDJF, of the CET record ” and the “open solar flux, FS, corrected for longitudinal solar wind structure”.
Hence, on the basis of this correlation, they predict that future winter CET values will be cold in the UK. If – and only if – one accepts that the correlation is a result of a causal link then their prediction can be accepted. Indeed, their prediction provides a test for the postulatd causal link.
However, they state their argument for this finding not being a global effect as follows:
“Winter CET values are known to be strongly modulated by the NAO [8] and modelling has shown that stratospheric trends over recent decades, along with downward links to surface, are indeed strong enough to explain much of the prominent trend in the NAO and hence regional winter climate in Europe between the 1960s and the 1990s [9]. It has been reported that geomagnetic activity rather than solar activity has a stronger statistical relationship to the NAO [38] which, given that the former is highly correlated with FS (indeed FS used here is derived from geomagnetic activity data) is consistent with the effect of FS on Central England Temperatures revealed here. Our subsequent studies (not reported here) on solar modulation of various blocking indices have confirmed previous studies [7], and we stress that this phenomenon is largely restricted to Europe and not global in extent [41].”
So, they “stress” that “this phenomenon is largely restricted to Europe and not global in extent [41].” based on “studies (not reported here) on solar modulation of various blocking indices ” that are reported in their reference [4].
That reference is
Mann M E 2002 Little ice age Encyclopedia of Global Environmental Change vol 1 ed M C MacCracken and J S Perry (New York: Wiley) pp 504–9 (ISBN 0-471-97796-9)
Anything related to work of “Mann ME” concerning temporal and spatial temperature variations pertaining to the “Little Ice Age” requires careful consideration because his ability at such statistical analyses has been demonstrated to be less than adequate by the Wegman enquiry: see e.g.
http://www.lavoisier.com.au/articles/greenhouse-science/temperature-data/Wegmanfactsheet.pdf
Hence, it seems that the only things that can reasonably concluded from the analysis of Lockwood et al. are:
(a) there is an apparent correlation between winter CET and solar activity,
(b) if this correlation indicates a causal link then future winter CET values will be cold in the UK,
(c) this indication provides a test for the suggestion that such a causal link exists,
(d) it is not known if the indication only applies to the CET rgion.
Richard
Speaking of bipolar disorder, read the quote from Michael Mann in this account of The Sun blamed for Europe’s colder winters, from Physicsworld.com. Final paragraph has Mann claiming he has long known the sun was responsible for cold 300 years ago and warmth 1000 years ago. Has he forgotten he invented the Hockey Stick?
http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/news/42298
Louis Hissink (22:38:36) :
Think electricity and plasma physics, and it becomes easier to explain.
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Reply:
True, or just take a look at what the sun is doing (or not doing) now:
http://www.cfbw.com/sunspotcount.htm
I personally like the Milankovitch Cycle the most although despite Lief’s efforts am not convinced the solar imprint is not there if you go out to the Gliessberg Cycle, Jose Cycle and longer. Once you get down into decades however, there is a lot of signal noise. You get into decade length resolution and the Ocean’s cycles interfere. I do like some of Lindzen’s work where solar cycles were overlaid on Ocean cycles. It was rather compelling. Of course there is the indirect relationship of cosmic rays or other forms of influence imbued through the ancilliary effects of the magnetosphere.
It’s all fun as long as we don’t get stupid and start talking about magical trace gas effects.
I understand now. Cycle 24 will be the most intense on record and has no effect on climate, and it is also the weakest in a hundred years and affects the climate only in those geographic areas where funding might be obtained. This is due to the simultaneous record slow and fast speed of the Sun’s conveyor belt.
The science is both settled and not settled, and the debate is over. Hensmark is both wrong and correct, and the Maunder minimum had cold and normal weather.
Just a few years ago, Mike and others published a paper “conclusively” showing that changes in the solar constant could not explain climate variations. Funny, now that the dam on AGW has broken how many papers are starting to turn up which are actually looking at what is going on. A good sign.
Yup, the regional only bit is terribly unsupported. However, if true, aren’t the English going to be highly amused by cooling off when the rest of the world heats up?
It seems quite obvious that this is karma for the sins of East Anglia. That’s about as well supported as their claim that this sun effect is European only.
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Time to bring up the correlation between Nile levels and aurorae again.
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So now we know that cold European winters are no longer due to the slowing of the Earth’s Gulf Stream Conveyor Belt (which is not happening) but rather the simultaneous speeding up and slowing down the Sun’s Conveyor Belt. Mann says the hockey stick is both correct and incorrect because of sunspots which he understood all long.
The science is settled and always has been. Perhaps all the (non) melting Arctic ice is affecting the Sun?
AlanG (23:49:18) :
o The 30 hPa atmospheric pressure level has changed height in phase with solar activity during the last 4 solar cycles
This is a subject that interests me; does anyone have a reference?
Ryan (03:05:08) :
“…….It astonishes me what these guys will stoop to. Why are they so strongly driven to behave this way???”
That is a heck of a lot easier to answer than what drives climate.
It is very simple MONEY and POWER. Scare the stuffing out of people so they give up their wealth and freedom in return for security. Bullies have been doing it since they figured out it was easier to beat up the little guy and steal his daily catch that it was to hunt for themselves.. Now the bullies want control of the entire world instead of just a business district (Chicago mob style) or a village (Warlords)
Nothing has changed except the size of the playing field and the method used for scaring people into submission.
“By recent standards, we have just had what could be called a very cold winter and I wanted to see if this was just another coincidence or statistically robust,” said lead author Mike Lockwood, professor of space environment physics at the University of Reading, UK.”
He said the magic word, “robust”. Shields up!
The correlation between the use of that word and the ferocity of support for the opposing position is robust.
John Trigge (00:49:25) :
It’s obvious we have a different sun down here. Up there, their sun goes from left to right across the sky, unlike our proper right to left!
Their moon is upside-down as well!
No doubt these unpredictable solar cycles which have a large impact on UK climate are correctly modeled in the Met Office GCMs, which forecast a warm winter for the UK last year and have overestimated UK temps in nine out the last ten years.
No doubt Mann will use this to defend the validity of his stick.
A convenient explanation for an inconvenient fact, namely Europe is not getting warmer.
Obviously, this theory will require years of diligent study and consequential grant funding increases.