The April 1st National Snow and Ice Data Center Arctic Sea Ice Extent plot continues its unusual upwards trend and is almost intersecting the “normal” line. Given the slope of the current trend it seems highly likely it will intersect the normal line with the April 2nd plot.
Other sea ice metrics such as JAXA, using a different satellite platform (AQUA) and the AMSR-E sensor agree.
It is an odd sort of a divergence, this growth of Arctic Sea ice well past the normal start of “melt”.
As first mentioned in a WUWT story two days ago, Dr. Walt Meier of NSIDC says:
“It’s a good question about the last time we’ve been above average. It was May 2001.”
It may be winds pushing ice further southwards in the Bering Sea, it may be fresh ice. It may be a combination. While this event isn’t by itself an about-face of the longer downward trend we’ve seen, it does seem to suggest that predictions assuming a linear (or even spiral) demise aren’t holding up.
We live in interesting times.
“Other sea ice metrics such as JAXA, using a different satellite platform (AQUA) and the AMSR-E sensor agree.”
Multiple sensor errors …and all in the same direction! Who would have thought it.
I am skeptical. Any day now, the adjusted graphs will be posted. These will show that its really “worse than we thought”.
Lets wait until September before jumping on any bandwagons about arctic ice.
Baby Oil is winning over Big Oil. I am sure the warmists must be huddling somewhere to sort out a narrative for this. Narrative used to be called SPIN.
Vincent (09:20:53) :
“Scientists say that global warming is leading to rotten ice, which, together with the higher pressure due to CO2, flattens out the ice like a giant pancake, and increases the overall extent.”
REPLY: “….thereby increasing the Earth’s albedo even more, forcing more cooling and driving the planet into a new ice age.”
Speaking of pancakes, Happy Holidays to all! Easter, Passover etc.
R. Gates (09:07:20) :
“Where do you see signs that the warming is over? Please share that data…”
On the ground.
No doubt that Global Warming is responsible for this increase in ice extent!
Ecotretas
R Gates — I still firmly believe that we’ll see an arctic sea ice minimum less than 2009 [snip]
Why is that?
I don’t put much stock in sea ice areas.
1. The recent growth is due to cold air mass over Eastern Siberia and Alaska.
2. Many parts of the Canadian Arctic have had a quite warm winter, and the ice in those regions is probably cardborad, if not paper thin.
3. Already the Hudson Bay is beginning to thaw.
4. We are going to see a very rapid melt (adjustment) during the coming weeks.
5. I predict will end up just above 5 million sq km by mid September.
Forget the Arctic. The real action is in the oceans.
R. Gates (09:07:20) :
Henry Pool said:
“global warming is over. we now have to seriously look at global cooling…”
—-
Uh, Henry, the figures are not out yet, but March is likely to continue the trends set in January and February showing a very warm year, in fact, 2010 could very likely beat out 1998 as the warmest year on instrument record. Where do you see signs that the warming is over? Please share that data…
Gosh. Can’t argue with facts regarding the rest of the year 2010…
Even so, this ‘warmest decade ever’ really hasn’t been very warm on the ground. Where, you know, crops grow, animals graze, people live and seas rise and fall. It’s not surprising that people are seeing the AGW-wing as a bunch of chicken-littles.
While these reports of cold weather – coldest it has been in a while – are anecdotal (and weather is not climate) they all add up to a world which is not warming a whole lot, and no tangeable effects on our environment.
@Steve Goddard (09:00:31) :
Yeah, I’ve been counting on that 3rd year ice as well. This is well in advance, but I suspect 3rd year is really where the benefit stops being signficant (i.e. the benefit ramps up pretty quickly 1-3, and some but not so much in years 4-5). I certainly hope we get a great test case on that next year because we have so much of it surviving this year. 🙂
I’ve also been wondering how much compactness helps in resisting wind and tide even when/if those do switch. Does 80% ice resist wind and tide better than 40% ice? I suspect it does, but I’m not sure.
5 years ago the experts were surprised and dismayed that the decline in Arctic ice extent was progressing much more rapidly than they predicted. “It’s worse than we thought”, they said. Now many are surprised and baffled by this late and rapid runup in extent to the 1979 – 2000 average.
Once again, just a reminder that the current state of climate science cannot predict or really explain the fluctuations we are observing in Arctic ice extent in the last 30 years. There is still so much we do not understand.
The science is so ….. not settled.
Chad Woodburn (09:23:39) :
Oh dear! This proves that global warming is killing the polar bears. You see, due to the record warm January, record numbers of polar bears must be dying off. And since they’re dying off, there aren’t as many of them to cause the sea ice to tip over and capsize, and then to sink to the bottom of the sea. That’s why the sea ice extend is increasing! Duh!
Um. Ice doesn’t sink. This clearly demonstrates a declining seal population which eat ice. Fewer seals; less ice-feeding; more ice coverage (your average seal weighs 25 kPa and can eat it’s own brain size in ice particulates every micro newton…).
Cryosphere Today also agree that the ice is still growing. And the Antarctic ice is also growing.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.recent.arctic.png
I just checked the 1800Z temperatures for all the Canadian stations in the high Arctic – they range from -17C to -25C and you aren’t going to get a lot of melting at those temperatures. More freezing maybe?
I would like to see a similar plot for area. It should be less affected by wind and more directly related to SST and OLR.
Happy Easter, Passover, to all.
Quote – “We live in interesting times.”
Mr Watts,
I wrote and suggested today in Tips & Notes to WUWT (Przemysław Pawełczyk (07:20:06) 🙂 an idea to publish more maps/images related to interesting topics.
Having this example (Arctic Sea Ice Extent Update: still growing) I will better illustrate what I was voting for.
Arctic Ice-Cover Hyperlink Package:
1) Jet Stream Analyses
http://squall.sfsu.edu/gif/jetstream_norhem_00.gif
2) NHemi Surface Temperatures
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/sfctmp_01.fnl.html
3) Current Snow and Ice
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1262750/Mega-flood-triggered-Europes-big-freeze–global-warming-plunge-cold-warn-scientists.html
4) Latest Sea Surface Temperature image
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/sst/latest_sst.gif
5) N. Hemi Snow Depth (Air Force)
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/snowAFnh.gif
6) N. Hemi Snow Cover (NOAA-NESDIS)
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/snowNESDISnh.gif
7) Sea Ice Concentration
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/arctic.seaice.some.000.png
8) Sea Ice Concentration
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/arctic.seaice.color.000.png
9) Current Bering Sea ICe Are
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.2.html
10) Arctic Sea Ice Extent
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php
11) Monthly NSIDC Ice with Buoys
http://iabp.apl.washington.edu/maps_monthly_ncepice.html
0) Bering Strait influenced ice age climate patterns worldwide
http://www2.ucar.edu/news/bering-strait-influenced-ice-age-climate-patterns-worldwide
Regards
Looking at the upcoming weather patterns, I’d say the Atlantic side will start seeing a decrease in area, and extent, with higher pressure setting up bringing in warmer air and southerly winds. The Pacific side looks to remain stormy and cold. That’ll keep extents, and area coverage bouncing around.
Those Catlin fools must be still going backwards or around and around. Haven’t heard a word lately so may be they were a polar bear meal… 🙂
R. Gates (09:07:20) : …2010 could very likely beat out 1998 as the warmest year on instrument record. Where do you see signs that the warming is over? Please share that data…
The answer is in your own words, “instrument record”.
Hmmm. The growing ice may be putting a crimp in oil/gas exploration by the countries bordering the Arctic. Wouldn’t that be a kick in the pants, after all the hype about “vast reserves”?
Smells like Teenage Ice.
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Nansen ice extent is unavailable – I guess they can’t believe the ice extent (and, indeed, ice area itself) is still increasing so they will be making adjustments.
Of course we would likely have a very reasonable explanation if we had real scientists analyzing real data, instead of agenda driven cranks trying desperately to plunge the world into economic chaos while lining their pockets.
Somewhat on topic, I’ve just posted some reference graphs that illustrate the variations in polar land and sea surface temperatures (absolute, not anomalies) and their relative magnitudes. Nothing earth-shattering, just some visuals–graphs.
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2010/04/polar-sea-and-land-surface-temperatures.html