Multiple indicators show less concern, more feelings that global warming is exaggerated
by Frank Newport, Gallup News
PRINCETON, NJ — Gallup’s annual update on Americans’ attitudes toward the environment shows a public that over the last two years has become less worried about the threat of global warming, less convinced that its effects are already happening, and more likely to believe that scientists themselves are uncertain about its occurrence. In response to one key question, 48% of Americans now believe that the seriousness of global warming is generally exaggerated, up from 41% in 2009 and 31% in 1997, when Gallup first asked the question.
These results are based on the annual Gallup Social Series Environment poll, conducted March 4-7 of this year. The survey results show that the reversal in Americans’ concerns about global warming that began last year has continued in 2010 — in some cases reverting to the levels recorded when Gallup began tracking global warming measures more than a decade ago.
For example, the percentage of Americans who now say reports of global warming are generally exaggerated is by a significant margin the highest such reading in the 13-year history of asking the question. In 1997, 31% said global warming’s effects had been exaggerated; last year, 41% said the same, and this year the number is 48%.
…
Americans Divided on Causes of Global Warming
In a sharp turnaround from what Gallup found as recently as three years ago, Americans are now almost evenly split in their views of the cause of increases in the Earth’s temperature over the last century.
In 2003, 61% of Americans said such increases were due to human activities — in line with advocates of the global warming issue — while 33% said they were due to natural changes in the environment. Now, a significantly diminished 50% say temperature increases are due to human activities, and 46% say they are not.
Americans Less Sure About Scientists’ Beliefs
Since last fall, there have been widespread news accounts of allegations of errors in scientific reports on global warming and alleged attempts by some scientists to doctor the global warming record.
These news reports may well have caused some Americans to re-evaluate the scientific consensus on global warming. Roughly half of Americans now say that “most scientists believe that global warming is occurring,” down from 65% in recent years. The dominant opposing thesis, held by 36% of Americans, is that scientists are unsure about global warming. An additional 10% say most scientists believe global warming is not occurring.
The percentage of Americans who think most scientists believe global warming is occurring has dropped 13 points from two years ago, and is the lowest since the first time Gallup asked this question back in 1997.
Implications
The last two years have marked a general reversal in the trend of Americans’ attitudes about global warming. Most Gallup measures up to 2008 had shown increasing concern over global warming on the part of the average American, in line with what one might have expected given the high level of publicity on the topic. Former Vice President Al Gore had been particularly prominent in this regard, with the publication of his bestselling book, “An Inconvenient Truth,” an Academy Award-winning documentary movie focusing on his global warming awareness campaign, and Gore’s receipt of a Nobel Peace Prize in 2007.
But the public opinion tide turned in 2009, when several Gallup measures showed a slight retreat in public concern about global warming. This year, the downturn is even more pronounced.
Some of the shifts in Americans’ views may reflect real-world events, including the publicity surrounding allegations of scientific fraud relating to global warming evidence, and — perhaps in some parts of the country — a reflection of the record-breaking snow and cold temperatures of this past winter. Additionally, evidence from last year showed that the issue of global warming was becoming heavily partisan in nature, and it may be that the continuing doubts about global warming put forth by conservatives and others are having an effect. A forthcoming analysis here at Gallup.com will examine shifts in global warming attitudes in recent years among various demographic and political groups.
…
Read the entire poll results at Gallup News
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“Bernice (07:23:25) :
Climategate editor hadn’t made any posts since 9 March.
Supposedly John O’Sullivan called it quits…………etc”
Thanks for that. Too bad. It was a good site.
Ref – Henry chance (08:25:48) :
“..Neurotics build castles in the sky
Psychotics live in them
Psychologists collect rent…”
____________________
Neurotics? Thought they were Psyentists:-)
In reply to Jon,
It is well known that with a strong El Nino you get very warm winter conditions in the west of Canada, so your report is absolutely unsurprising.
As far as I know, Greenpeace and WWF absolutely LOVE those seal pups, so the fact that they have even more opportunity to reproduce this year and more favorable conditions for their young to thrive in a bit earlier on the calendar then usual, I would think that Greenpeace and the WWF would be thrilled that this should lead to a nice increase in the seal populations this year.
Just imagine how low the concern for AGW would be if the mainstream media in America would report as agressively about the scandals and errors as it did for the AGW advocates in the first place.
AGW would be dead-meat instead of on life-support.
Science in general was (and still is by many) held in high regard and trust.
That illusion has been shattered for many.
This issue (the validity of AGW) is probably the first scientific question that has driven large numbers of people from the general public to question scientists’ assertions and then caused them to do their own independent research.
And, thanks to the internet people can now do that.
What has happened is dramatic, and sent shock waves through these self-informed individuals among the general public:
Significant amounts of what the scientific community has been shoveling down the throat of the general public is garbage.
I don’t think people who have researched various scientific questions will ever have the same trusting view of Science, again.
You can’t put the tooth paste back in the tube — the trust is gone.
The rose-colored glasses have shattered and been replaced by a clear-eyed scepticism tempered by an open-mind to empirical evidence.
Verify, verify, verify…that is the watch-word.
Regarding the climategate site.
I just typed climategate Ctrl-Enter, No problems. March 9th is last post though.
DaveE.
Increase in seals = more cod dead, wasted with just their bellies ripped out by the seals.
Seals have NEVER been in danger of extiction.
Seal meat is quite tasty. Hope you all get to try some one day
OceanTwo:
Precisely.
What scientists can’t do is
1) say “this subject is too complicated – you need to trust us”
2) refuse to publish their data/methods/code
then
3) get caught lying/exaggerating
If they do they shouldn’t be surprised by surveys like this.
@ur momisugly lichanos (06:47:28) : Why do you pay so much attention to these polls? They tell us little about the state of the science.
No, they don’t. However, IPCC and Jones et al don’t care about the state of the science–their goal is to SELL their conclusions to the public. They are more concerned about the fact that they’re not doing a very good job of communicating their message, and this is reflected in the polls regardless of the state of the science (which is pretty horrendous anyway).
A few old geezers like me can remember the 1970s when the false prophets of that era cried “Catastrophe alert — Earth’s climate is cooling, cropland will freeze and world starvation is coming!” Unfortunately, today most persons under 40 cannot remember this previous climate hysteria. Still, now all we need do is look out the window, put on our overcoats and wonder if there is new crop of prophets singing a new siren song.
Johnny Canuck (07:07:49) :
WE are NOT the deniers. We are the skeptics. The Warmists are the deniers. They DENY any other possible scenarios.
Climate scientists consider all kinds of possible scenarios, but not to the point of denying the laws of physics. Everyone accepts that human activity is causing the current warming trend, because that’s what the evidence shows us. Of course people are free to dispute how this might proceed in the future, and bring up all sorts of different scenarios, but the fact remains that all other things being equal, the world will continue to warm all the time there is a positive TOA radiative imbalance (i.e. an accumulation of energy in the climate system). Can you give us any confidence that that is going to change any time soon?
This will surely help restore the numbers of the dwindling faithful (hmmnnn…):
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/mar/12/polar-bears-endangered-species-listing
(…) “This weekend, the US will warn that the threat from climate change to the survival of the polar bear is so great that the world must grant it the highest possible protection.
At the meeting of the international body that regulates trade in animals, the US will push for a total ban on the sale and movement of polar bear products that are used for furs, rugs and taxidermy. Melting sea ice in the Arctic will kill thousands of bears in coming years, the US says, and continued commercial trade must not be allowed to make the situation worse. Other countries, including US neighbours and keen polar bear traders, Canada, disagree.
The US has put its proposal to the Convention on International Trade of Endangered Species (Cites), which meets every two-three years and tomorrow begins its 12-day meeting in Doha, Qatar. Governments from 175 countries will discuss dozens of such proposals, which could help determine the fate of, among others, elephants, tigers, rhinos and the world’s dwindling stocks of bluefin tuna.”
Ref – bob paglee (10:13:02) :
“A few old geezers like me can remember the 1970s when the false prophets of that era cried “Catastrophe alert — Earth’s climate is cooling, cropland will freeze and world starvation is coming!” Unfortunately, today most persons under 40 cannot remember this previous climate hysteria. …”
____________________
And 40 years from now, some kid (relatively speaking) today, will say the same thing you just said except they’ll say the exact opposite:
“A few old geezers like me can remember the 2010s when the false prophets of that era cried “Catastrophe alert — Earth’s climate is warming, cropland will burn and world starvation is coming!” Unfortunately, today most persons under 40 cannot remember this previous climate hysteria. …”
Nothing changes, really;-)
(Except the value of the dollar, the cost of healthcare, the…;-)
In reply to PeterB, it’s not just in the west of Canada; it’s everywhere except for a small area over the southern prairies. See Desdemona Despair, “Canada winter warmest and driest on record: ‘It’s like winter was cancelled in this country’ “
Jon (04:39:29) :
Seals are pupping on beaches in northern Newfoundland because of the lack of ice.
Jon,
Read the links below. You’ll find that this is a result of a negative Arctic Oscillation, warm phase Pacific Decadal Oscillation and El Nino.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/28/the-arctic-oscillation-index-goes-strongly-negative/
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~mantua/REPORTS/PDO/PDO_cs.htm
Americans have been notoriously wrong in their opinions about the importance of things…mainly tending toward wishful thinking. You only need to look at the disasters in the stock market. If the majority of Americans had seen the many crashes coming, they would have pulled their money out before. Instead, they believe the “happy days” can go on forever.
So too, could be the case with AGW. Only time will tell. For those looking at the long term trends in climate, it looks as though we might once more go another winter in the N. Hemisphere without seeing a positive sea ice anomaly. We’ve not had a positive anomaly in arctic sea ice since 2004…and this is constitutes as trend. Also of course, so far in 2010, we’ve seen at or above temps in the troposphere, with every day in March being above the 20 year record. While these 2010 tropospheric temps don’t yet constitute a trend, they are 100% consistent with AGW models, and consistent with the Met Office’s (and mine) prediction that 2010 will most likely end up as the warmest year on instrument record.
I’m convinced that the Elites have populaton control at the center of this.
Being part native American, thanks to my Granma, I am a bit sensitve about
“control” by govn’t edict…
Nothing scares them more than heathy, happy, warm, dark skinned people.
Children, especially…
When the AGW hypothesis meets real science:
Yeah, but Al Gore says the science is settled… well, may be not… here’s the latest (OT) about our sun from David Hathaway of NASA
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2010/12mar_conveyorbelt.htm?list970792
son of mulder (06:19:55) :
Or maybe cold kills so smaller birds of the species die without breeding. Warmer is better and the smaller birds survive to breed and so on average the bird size gets smaller.
The flip side of that coin is that cold weather generally means there’s less bird food available for the graminivorous species, so smaller birds will have a survival advantage — they need less food than the larger ones, and can get into areas their competitors *can’t* to find food. Smaller birds also have an advantage in finding shelter from predators and the elements — I’ve startled a chipping sparrow from beneath a magnolia leaf that had lodged between the trunk and two small branches of a yew.
bob paglee (10:13:02) :
A few old geezers like me can remember the 1970s when the false prophets of that era cried “Catastrophe alert — Earth’s climate is cooling, cropland will freeze and world starvation is coming!”
I have geezer-peer reviewed your comment and can confirm it’s veracity.
%$#@ur momisugly!
“…confirm its veracity”…
So the computer-generated footage of three-story high massive waves sweeping through a quickly-deserted New York City didn’t have that much of a lasting effect?
I don’t see why people have a hard time accepting such a perfectly plausible scenario!
Look at what happened in that movie 2012, which was obviously the result of those apocalyptic runaway global warming effects finally kicking in, just as they were predicted to happen. Totally believable!
Icarus,
“Climate scientists consider all kinds of possible scenarios, but not to the point of denying the laws of physics.”
That’s right Icarus, the laws of physics (presume you are referring to radiation physics) tells us to expect a temperature sensitivity of about 1.2C for a doubling of CO2.
“Of course people are free to dispute how this might proceed in the future, and bring up all sorts of different scenarios.”
These are the playstation scenarios that conjure up warmings of up to 6C or more, based on their magical multipliers. This of course, is not science.
“but the fact remains that all other things being equal. . . ”
All other things are not equal in a chaotic non linear system where parameters interact in myriad different ways. Ie, the earth-as-a-flask model is a naive conjecture unsupported by evidence.
A recent Australian survey showed that 60% of Aussies are still blind true believers.
No doubt that this is the result of a very biassed Australian press, except for a few glimmers of light, such as from Andrew Bolt.