There’s a lot of buzz about this in the blogosphere because of the constant barrage of alarming reports being fed by the media on Arctic sea ice melt. As we pointed out yesterday, the WUWT forecast is that sea ice is on its way to a recovery again in 2010.
Here’s where the problem is, the magenta marker is the Baltic sea:
And the AP video follows with this description: A passenger ferry with nearly 1,000 people on board broke free early Friday from heavy pack ice that had trapped it for hours in the Baltic Sea of Sweden’s east coast. Dozens of other ships remained stuck and awaiting assistance. (March 4)
Richard North at the EU Referendum writes of this event:
Sceptics can, of course, make hay with these reports – as indeed the warmists have exploited any number of transient weather phenomena – but it is germane to note that the Baltic incident is partly the result of gale-force winds which are compacting the ice and making it difficult to navigate.
Something very similar happened during September 1983 in the Northeast passage, when an unusually early freeze-up and persistent northwesterly winds that drove heavy multi-year ice into Proliv Longa and against the Siberian coast of Chukotka. Dozens of ships were trapped, creating a major emergency which lasted several months, a fascinating account latterly published in the journal Arctic in 1985.
This brings home the salient point that mass shifts in Arctic ice have more to do with wind patterns than they do temperature, something Anthony Watts helpfully confirms in a recent post. As a result, Arctic ice extent is recovering from its 2007 low and is currently within a million square kilometres of normal and increasing as peak coverage approaches.
Here, then, we have a complex, multi-factoral phenomenon, but it is one which the warmists have chosen to interpret almost entirely as evidence of global warming, claiming that temperature rises are the main if not sole cause.
Meanwhile, the setup for increased Arctic sea ice is looking good for 2010.
hunter (07:55:13) :
This is of course consistent with predictions for global warming/climate change/climate crisis.
Dont forget climate chaos/global weirding and so on
Here is the conundrum. People have been using heatwaves, typhoons, hurricanes, tornadoes, snow storms, etc… to implicate climate as changing. Despite the fact that there have always been heatwaves, typhoons, hurricanes, tornadoes, snow storms, etc.
Climate IS weather, or rather an almost consistent pattern of weather, with the emphasis on almost. Now add onto the fact that Climate is ALWAYS changing ( the Sahara was not always the Sahara ) throw into the mix a major change of land use due to human development over a short period of time and what are you left with?
I am angry at the term Climate Change to talk about something that should be changing.
Anyway just a rant… sorry if it was not terribly constructive. maybe what people mean is Rapid Climate Change… but if that is true I see no major evidence of this either.
Actually, Mr L it’s “it’s” not “its”. The apostrophe is for the contraction of “is” as in “It is”. The possessive “its” does not use an apostrophe.
Well to me, the crux of the story, is that a nearly land locked large piece of water, that can hardly have arctic ocean currents or Gulf stream currents running around in it, does actually get cold enough (maybe <-2.5 deg C) to freeze.
They can't blame this on ice getting blown out of the arctic ocean or getting knocked off some nearby glacier by a 23 year old ice block.
It seems to me that the true story of freak ice events in the Arctic was the unprecedented but "robust" drop in ice coverage from 2004/5/6 to 2007, a one year anomaly; and not to be compared to a steady stream of significant recoveries since then, in 2008/9. Just so's you know that Weather is not Climate.
Put “United Kingdom” or even better, “British Isles” instead of England. Scots people do NOT like to be called English.
What phase is the moon in? Everybody is a bit tetchy.
The Scot’s are tetchy about England, the Danes do not want to be remembered for Copenhagen, and the Nitpickers are picking nits with abandon. Maybe all these near-Arctic folks are out watching the great recent Aurora displays too much and not getting enough sleep.
KW
For a more detailed map of the ICE on the Baltic sea there is this
dual language Swedish-English PDF file.
http://www.smhi.se/oceanografi/istjanst/produkter/sstcolor.pdf
We have had 3 months of real winter this year, the coldest winter since 1987
what sea ice? I was told it was all melting.
Obviously the big oil companies have gotten to you.
These ships are stuck between Finland and Sweden, most sail under Finnish flag, but your map omits our country altogether. It’s a travesty!
Unusually, WUWT wasn’t the first place I’ve heard a (this) story.
In the meantime all vessels have been freed again.
The following is the first reference I found after 10 seconds of googling:
http://www.rnw.nl/english/article/baltic-sea-ships-now-free
cheers
England, Scotland, what’s the difference? 😉
Just kidding……
It’s pretty frozen over there. I wonder whether I should cancel the spring vacations in the Baltic Sea. Won’t it be too cold for swimming? 😉
Please edit the map. You have labeled the “United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland” as “England”.
(United Kingdom refers to the union of the kingdoms of England and Scotland in the 17thC)
Anthony, I’ve created a map of the affected area using the latest satellite imagery from Cryosphere Today (March 4th) and information from a Swedish newspaper[1] which puts the location of the ships within the area of Norrtälje[2]. Please feel free to use the map I’ve created since it more accurately reflects the situation and shouldn’t upset our friends in Great Britain:
http://img94.imageshack.us/img94/995/balticseaicecolor001.jpg
[1] http://www.thelocal.se/25318/20100303/
[2] http://tinyurl.com/yho9euu
@ur momisugly JimK
Look again Jim “its” it is.
Can’t you people see what happened?
Due to the recent Chilean earthquake, the planet now spins faster. This has caused the surface to rotate out of sync with the atmospheric labeling layer, as seen on this satellite image.
Just wait a bit, the atmospheric drag will soon correct that.
Hey, is that where the missing 22,000 km2 from Antarctica ended up. Should fit in the Baltic with plenty of room to spare. Somebody should let Jane Ferrigno know that we have found her ice!
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/03/03/a-question-to-the-usgs-and-npr/#more-16928
Well, you amusingly got ‘England’ wrong, but at least there haven’t been any American comments about the phallic shape of Norway, Sweden and the Kola Peninsula.
[Reply: until now: there’s also Florida. -anon. mod.]
REPLY: The placement of the England label was due to Copenhagen pushing into England, and thanks to all the pedantic whining, I’ve added both to the map now. -A
” Luboš Motl (09:06:16) :
It’s pretty frozen over there. I wonder whether I should cancel the spring vacations in the Baltic Sea. Won’t it be too cold for swimming? 😉 ”
We are not offering seaside vacations this spring. Instead we invite you to:
http://www.icehotel.com/
//Lars
“…the Baltic incident is partly the result of gale-force winds which are compacting the ice”.
There has been no gales (> 32 mph) or storms (> 64 mph) lately, around Stockholm. But this is the coldest winter since at least 1986-1987. Since COP15 (Dec. 14) it has been freezing here…
http://www.thelocal.se/25364/20100305/
Luboš Motl (09:06:16) :
Summer can be fine, but you’ll have to realize that we here in Stockholm live at the latitude of southern Greenland.
The Scottish and the Weather, Why the map needs correcting!
Cold Weather Scots
The Scots react differently to the cold weather than the English:
At 50°F
People in Southern England turn on the central heating
People in Edinburgh plant out bedding plants
40°F
Southerners shiver uncontrollably
Glaswegians sunbathe on the beach at Largs
35°F
Cars in the South of England refuse to start
People in Falkirk drive with their windows down
20°F
Southerners wear overcoats, gloves and woolly hats
Aberdonian men throw on a t-shirt; girls start wearing mini-skirts
15°F
Southerners begin to evacuate to the continent
People from Dundee swim in the River Tay at Broughty Ferry
0°F
Life in the South grinds to a halt
Inverness folk have the last BBQ before it gets cold
-10°F
Life in the South ceases to exist
People in Dunfermline throw on a light jacket
-80°F
Polar bears wonder if it’s worth carrying on
Boy Scouts in Oban start wearing their long trousers
-100°F
Santa Claus abandons North Pole
People in Stirling put on their ‘long johns’
-173°F
Alcohol freezes
Glaswegians get upset because all the pubs are shut
-297°F
Microbial life starts to disappear
The cows in Dumfriesshire complain about farmers with cold hands
-460°F
All atomic motion stops
Shetlanders stamp their feet and blow on their hands
-500°F
Hell freezes over
Scotland will support England in the World cup
“JonFrum (09:01:41) :
England, Scotland, what’s the difference? 😉
Just kidding……”
Mexico, US, what’s the difference?
Arctic Ice has jumped to 14.2 million sq km. (I thought it would peak at 14M).
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm
and DMI Arctic temps have dropped.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
Anna (08:14:49) :
Google won’t tranlate the page. Can you tell me on who’s forecast model they sent the best Icebreaker to Antarctica?