NOAA's new 'climate service' – not a sure thing yet

Here’s a chance to tell your congressperson not to waste more taxpayer money on repetitive services already handled by NCDC. This looks to be nothing more than a fast track press release service. Given how badly Tom Karl has handled PR in the past, such as the disastrous NCDC Climate Change Synthesis report with photoshopped images of floods that didn’t happen.

Image above taken directly from the CCSP report. Read more here

They had to hold the report to fix errors.  I don’t expect this agency to be much better.  – Anthony

From NOAA NEWS: Commerce Department Proposes Establishment of NOAA Climate Service

New office would target nation’s fast-accelerating climate information needs

NOAA launches www.climate.gov as portal for climate science and services

February 8, 2010

Individuals and decision-makers across widely diverse sectors – from agriculture to energy to transportation – increasingly are asking NOAA for information about climate change in order to make the best choices for their families, communities and businesses. To meet the rising tide of these requests, U.S. Commerce Secretary Gary Locke today announced the intent to create a NOAA Climate Service line office dedicated to bringing together the agency’s strong climate science and service delivery capabilities.

Flooded street.

NOAA responds to millions of annual requests for climate data vital to planning and operations. In vulnerable areas, infrastructure can be designed with a better understanding of projected sea-level rise, flooding and/or changes in hurricane frequency and intensity.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

More and more, Americans are witnessing the impacts of climate change in their own backyards, including sea-level rise, longer growing seasons, changes in river flows, increases in heavy downpours, earlier snowmelt and extended ice-free seasons in our waters. People are searching for relevant and timely information about these changes to inform decision-making about virtually all aspects of their lives.

“By providing critical planning information that our businesses and our communities need, NOAA Climate Service will help tackle head-on the challenges of mitigating and adapting to climate change,” said Secretary Locke. “In the process, we’ll discover new technologies, build new businesses and create new jobs.”

“Working closely with federal, regional, academic and other state and local government and private sector partners, the new NOAA Climate Service will build on our success transforming science into useable climate services,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “NOAA is committed to scientific integrity and transparency; we seek to advance science and strengthen product development and delivery through user engagement.”

Leaders from numerous public and private sector entities support the creation of NOAA Climate Service:

NOAA researchers collect climate data throughout the world. This  data yields important clues about long-term global changes, improving  predictions of climate variations in the shorter term, such as during  cold spells and periods of drought, and over centuries.

NOAA researchers collect climate data throughout the world. This data yields important clues about long-term global changes, improving predictions of climate variations in the shorter term, such as during cold spells and periods of drought, and over centuries.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

“Addressing climate change is one of our most pressing environmental challenges. Making climate science more easily accessible to all Americans will help us gain the consensus we need to move forward,” said Jim Rogers, CEO of Duke Energy. “The new NOAA Climate Service is a welcome addition. It will help bring people together so we can also bring about an economic recovery by more rapidly modernizing our nation’s energy infrastructure.”

“NOAA has consistently led the world in climate research and observation,” said Carol Browner, assistant to the president for energy and climate change. “Businesses, communities and governments will rely even more on its expertise and the critical information it provides to make informed decisions based on the best science available. Through NOAA’s improved climate services we will be better able to confront climate change, and the many challenges it presents for our environment, security, and economy.”

“The establishment of NOAA Climate Service will be an important step forward in helping the nation better understand and forecast the changing climate. The Navy’s Task Force Climate Change looks forward to working closely with NOAA Climate Service to ensure that both the nation and the Navy are best prepared for the future challenges posed by climate change,” said RADM Dave Titley, oceanographer of the Navy and director of the Navy’s Task Force Climate Change.

“NOAA’s reorganization to consolidate its formidable capabilities relating to climate science and services in a single office is an important step forward in the larger effort of harnessing relevant capabilities across all the executive branch agencies to help citizens and businesses plan for and cope with climate change,” said Shere Abbott, associate director for environment and energy at the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy.

Weather balloon launch.

NOAA weather balloon launch.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

To see what other leaders from government, business, science and environment are saying about NOAA Climate Service, and to get additional information, visit http://www.noaa.gov/climate.

Unifying NOAA’s climate capabilities under a single climate office will integrate the agency’s climate science and services and make them more accessible to NOAA partners and other users. Planning has been, and continues to be, shaped by input from NOAA employees and stakeholders across the country, with close consideration given to the recommendations of the NOAA Science Advisory Board, National Academies and National Academy of Public Administration.

NOAA Climate Service will encompass a core set of longstanding NOAA capabilities with proven success. The climate research, observations, modeling, predictions and assessments generated by NOAA’s top scientists – including Nobel Peace Prize award-winners – will continue to provide the scientific foundation for extensive on-the-ground climate services that respond to millions of requests annually for data and other critical information.

Thomas R. Karl, director of NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center, will serve as transitional director of NOAA Climate Service. New positions for six NOAA Regional Climate Services Directors will be announced soon and will provide regional leadership for integrating user engagement and on-the-ground service delivery within the Climate Service.

NOAA Launches Landmark Climate.gov Portal

NOAA is also unveiling today a new Web site – http://www.climate.gov – that serves as a single point-of-entry for NOAA’s extensive climate information, data, products and services. Known as the NOAA Climate Portal, the site addresses the needs of five broadly-defined user groups: decision makers and policy leaders, scientists and applications-oriented data users, educators, business users and the public.

Highlights of the portal include an interactive “climate dashboard” that shows a range of constantly updating climate datasets (e.g., temperature, carbon dioxide concentration and sea level) over adjustable time scales; the new climate science magazine ClimateWatch, featuring videos and articles of scientists discussing recent climate research and findings; and an array of data products and educational resources.

NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.

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75 thoughts on “NOAA's new 'climate service' – not a sure thing yet

  1. Seems like they are forcing a climate phenomenon (i.e.: a 10 year averaging set of wide area weather data) into site specific single event weather phenomena.
    I sure hope their science is robust.

  2. Looked at it earlier, why does the (incoming sunlight) solar output data stop in 2000?
    Using patterns in The Natural variability of the weather, caused by Lunar Designational Tides, I have created a long term forecast for the next 4 years that seems to be kicking some Butt.
    http://www.aerology.com/national.aspx
    Looks to me like I got the forecast for the S.E. USA weather for today right, when I put the forecast together three years ago. Let me know what you think…

  3. So I’m reading this incredibly long news release as “We want more money for the same service”. This is like deja vu of the DMV

  4. I wonder how many billions of tax dollars will go to fund this new propaganda ministry? Judging from the comments by those involved, the conclusion is predetermined, and is only awaiting the pontiffs blessings.
    The NOAA announcement brought quick praise from Sierra Club President Carl Pope: “As polluters and their allies continue to try and muddy the waters around climate science, the Climate Service will provide easy, direct access to the valuable scientific research undertaken by government scientists and others.”

  5. More and more, Americans are witnessing the impacts of climate change in their own backyards

    Same mantra again failing to properly inform the public that more people see disasters in their backyard because more people have the ocean as their backyard, or rivers, or having built on low-lying flood prone land, and so on. The storm numbers and severity are constant across time, the people and where they build and have built have made the change!
    I wonder, do the re-insurers (AIG, for example) have NOAA in their pockets too? They want every person to pay for their mistakes made years ago.

  6. From the WaPo report:

    In order to formally launch the reorganization, [Commerce Secretary Gary] Locke said, the House and Senate appropriations committees with jurisdiction over NOAA will have to concur with the move, which is planned for Oct. 1. “Ultimately we need to have approval from Congress, but not through legislation,” he said. …

    So don’t count on Congress to stymie what is for all intents and purposes already a done deal.

  7. I think the reason they want this is to promote the general consensus of AGW among the population. And I noticed that Australia has something similar coming out:
    “THE Rudd government has outlined its grand plan to create a scientifically-engaged Australia.”
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/breaking-news/grand-plans-for-a-scientific-australia/story-fn3dxiwe-1225828035687
    It’ll be interesting to see if other nation-states come out with these science PR sites.

  8. The picture says it all.
    Lysenkoism became the “scientific” basis of the Soviet farm bureau.
    I wish someone would quell my fears that a parallel scenario won’t be repeated with the new agency in the US

  9. This office had better be prepared for a deluge of FOIA requests. For starters, how about any documents developed by NOAA that prove of the following claims in the press release?
    “More and more, Americans are witnessing the impacts of climate change in their own backyards, including sea-level rise, longer growing seasons, changes in river flows, increases in heavy downpours, earlier snowmelt and extended ice-free seasons in our waters. People are searching for relevant and timely information about these changes to inform decision-making about virtually all aspects of their lives.”

  10. A great example of the government creating “green” jobs that add no value to society. In fact, in this case the value probably is negative.

  11. Centralize the propoganda machine.
    Get R done.
    There is far too much research involved and the contol freaks want better control over the slush funds. Then they can write the reports before the studdy. (like Menne)

  12. “the science is settled the science is settled the science is settled la-la-la-la (I can’t hear you)….”

  13. “Begs the question”
    Yeah..they use charts from the Hadley CRU.
    Ohh well…without another ministry of information I might become confused.
    But between Carol Browner and Gary Locke I expect no less then KGB quality disinformation.

  14. The last time I considered this type of issue, Congressional action (new law) was required to create a new federal agency. I am no aware that Congress has acted. Is this the latest Obama “duly deemed” initiative?

  15. ClimatePortal! Isn’t that just a high-falutin’ word for ClimateGate?
    At least PT Barnum would have jumped straight to ClimateEgress!

  16. Ok I’m not American – so do US readers think this smacks of implementing an existing plan A – because ‘they’ never thought they would need a plan B? or, is this the Climategate response plan B? – to bolster the collapsing walls? We have a fully fledged Department for Energy and Climate Change here in old England, whose primary function seems to be to indoctrinate our children about the dangers of CO2 and shut down our reliable coal fired power stations (we have lots of coal here, like you do). Short of an armed revolution, I despair of our politicians admitting the thinness of the consensus AGW ‘science’ and allowing a realistic reassessment of our energy supply needs (when the wind doesn’t blow). Sorry to be down but the war isn’t won yet.

  17. Dr. Robert (16:02:27) :
    Any predictions until the first time they use the word “denialist” ?

    Add “robust” to the list.

  18. plenty of graphs in here…excerpt at end of piece:
    GISS manipulates climate data in Mackay, (Queensland Australia)
    By kenskingdom
    Another Smoking Gun from Australia? How GISS adjusts temperature records in two adjacent sites
    They are allowed this manipulation simply because GHCN has declared at some stage “Mackay Sugar Mill Station” (Te Kowai) to be a “small town”, with a population of 35,000. Exactly the same population as Mackay.
    Well, actually it’s surrounded by cane fields which have not changed much for the last 130 years, is about 7 km from Mackay and 2.5km from the nearest suburb (Ooralea).
    There are 2 or 3 buildings around it for the manager, greenhouses, and laboratories, and its population on a good day might be… 10.
    This has allowed them to adjust its data, when other rural sites are not adjusted. It also allows them to NOT include the pre-1950 data from Te Kowai with the other rural stations, when adjusting Mackay’s data.
    Why do I suspect this is deliberate? Because the Te Kowai GHCN data ends in 1992, just like all the other rural stations in this area. It was once classified as rural.
    What would be the reason for this adjustment? Who knows, but the effects are obvious:
    » Early warmer temperatures are artificially cooled.
    » These two stations now have an extra warming trend and now do their bit to support the warming trend at the other 2,300 stations worldwide.
    And it’s happening in my own backyard! I’m furious!
    http://kenskingdom.wordpress.com/2010/02/05/giss-manipulates-climate-data-in-mackay/

  19. “NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment…”
    Would that that were the case. If there weren’t so many recent incidents showing that they know how to play the funding system as “independent” groups then there wouldn’t have been much of a case for their combination. Quis custodiet ipsos custodes? Keep guarding us M&M&W (had to add the Watts on the end, of course).

  20. So when I get a puddle in my backyard, should I be reporting this to the NOAA ? It could very well indicate sea level rise seeping through my sod.
    Come to think of it, there’s seems to be more birds than usual eating from my bird feeder these days too. Surely it has some relation to AGW ?

  21. NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.
    Come on guys, stop being so bashful. You’re infallible, why pretend otherwise? You’ve settled the Science. Job done. No further studies required.
    Any concrete plans for your second careers yet?

  22. NOAA blink gif, raw vs adjusted data: click
    [takes a few seconds to load]
    The warming over the last century is surely exaggerated. It might not even exist.
    Who really knows?

  23. Legislation may not be needed to create this bureaucratic mess, but it certain will require budget and appropriations language. We should not look a gift horse in the mouth — once the Republicans take back the House — having all of the alarmists in one agency will make it much easier to zero fund and then RIF them. Digging them out of the larger agencies would have taken a generation.

  24. Mosh was credited with naming it the
    Piltdown Mansion.
    It was photoshooped and used to sell flood insurance.

  25. Dr Robert:
    Here:
    http://www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/2009/articles/short-term-cooling-on-a-warming-planet/4
    Interesting that the quote:
    ‘“When you’re in a court of law, you have to swear to tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. The people who have been focusing on the ‘cooling’ have not been telling the whole truth,”’
    Should appear right below the picture of sea-ice extent. Wonder why they didn’t include 2008 or 2009? (the article was written late Dec 2009) “Whole truth”?

  26. If I hadn’t changed my political party registration before now, this announcement would have surely sent me over the edge. If they are getting requests up the yingyang for information on climate change, send a FOI their way and ask for those requests. I wanna see ’em.
    In the mean time, I can only hope that the impending Democratic Party doom of midterm elections will keep our legislatures out of our pockets!

  27. Publication of the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), U.S. Department of Commerce.
    “U.S. Department of Commerce”
    How convenient.

  28. Our nation is running trillion dollar deficits – we simply can not afford this massive boondoggle! .
    What is it about the words “STOP SPENDING” that our government doesn’t understand!!

  29. “And for the inauguration of this new Agency, which will go a long way toward helping us to Protect our Climate – please welcome – former Vice President Al Gore!”

  30. re: short term cooling on a warming planet.
    Good gawd. Climate scientists should be required to earn their meteorology degree (MA, not BS) before earning anything related to climate credentials. The stuff they attribute to climate and not rightly to natural short and long term weather pattern variation leaves me dumbstruck.

  31. [quote Stephen (17:05:05) :]
    Ok I’m not American – so do US readers think this smacks of implementing an existing plan A – because ‘they’ never thought they would need a plan B? or, is this the Climategate response plan B? – to bolster the collapsing walls?
    [/quote]

    It’s plan B. Plan A was COP15. COP15 wasn’t a compete failure. It prevented the Cap and Trade business from falling apart completely. But COP15 really didn’t reach the goals the greens had wanted from it.
    Anyway, this is what Obama means when he says he needs to “Better educate the public”.
    What Mr. Obama may not realize is the public will be educating him and his friends in the near future.

  32. I’m sure Lisa Jackson over at EPA is just tickled pink over this. She will be able to point to NOAA for justification of more taxes and regulations instead of that nasty old guy Pachauri. They are on the same team right? NOAA, EPA, Obama, Pelosi, Reid, Sierra Club, GreenPeace. A real dream team. Yessir, those pia skeptics are toast, alrighty.

  33. “Making climate science more easily accessible to all Americans will help us gain the consensus we need to move forward.”
    Translation: Increasing the coverage of climate change propaganda will result in almost all Americans believing in man-made climate change and its catastrophic consequences, and will result in a consensus that we need to cripple our economy by drastically reducing or eliminating the use of fossil fuels and transfer much of our wealth to developing countries so that they can develop without fossil fuels. Pay no attention if the developing countries continue to ramp up use of fossil fuels.

  34. This will be another organization that will have a built in negative incentive against objectivity. Any facts that point to natural climate change or no climate change will jeopardize the organization’s existence.

  35. And to replace the “The New Colossus” plaque at the Statue of Liberty, a short snippet from an earlier work:
    “Abandon Hope All Ye Who Enter Here”

  36. The “dramatic decline” water level photos from Lake Powell were taken in 2002 and 2003 at the height of a normal western drought cycle.
    http://www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/2010/images/dramatic-decline-in-lake-powell-water-levels
    There has been a “dramatic” increase in the water level since then. I walked a few miles along the rim of the lake, near Glen Canyon Dam, just two weeks ago.
    This portrayal of a current global warming crisis is very dishonest and propagandistic. Surely NOAA knows why we have reservoirs all over the west.

  37. “The interviewer Andrew Neil” did very well…and we need t o see much much more of the same.

  38. Gary Lock started the State of Washington down this road while serving as Governor. His successor is so committed to the AGW cause that she is diverting money from pollution prevention and cleanup programs to keep up funding for AGW PR programs. Now she is proposing tripling environmental taxes to keep those now underfunded environmental programs running.


  39. Richard Holle (16:16:50) :
    Looked at it earlier, why does the (incoming sunlight) solar output data stop in 2000?
    Using patterns in The Natural variability of the weather, caused by Lunar Designational Tides,

    Hmmm … “Lunar Designational Tides” not exactly terminology in common use; I came up with EXACTLY one (1) hit using Google – care to guess where that was?
    .
    .

  40. ‘The NOAA announcement brought quick praise from Sierra Club President Carl Pope: “As polluters and their allies continue to try and muddy the waters around climate science, the Climate Service will provide easy, direct access to the valuable scientific research undertaken by government scientists and others.”’
    You mean like at CRU? We definitely do NOT need another climate agency in the Federal Government to muddy the waters and waste the taxpayer’s money on AGW propaganda over good science.


  41. mkurbo (17:58:18) :
    Some of the wind turbines freeze-up…
    “Minnesota wind turbines won’t work in cold weather”

    Engineering snafu on a par with … wait for it … LED-based Traffic Lights in the same climate!
    .
    .

  42. Perfect. It will say exactly what it is politically designed to say, and everybody will know it’s nothing but a cheap paint job.
    What’s the point?
    106 million watched the Super Bowl yesterday and caught ‘The’ commercial.
    Who’s going to be fooled by this:
    Psst…. hey buddy… want to buy a bottle of Green Snake Oil Paragoric?

  43. _Jim (19:19:40) :
    Richard Holle (16:16:50) :
    Looked at it earlier, why does the (incoming sunlight) solar output data stop in 2000?
    Using patterns in The Natural variability of the weather, caused by Lunar Designational Tides,
    Hmmm … “Lunar Designational Tides” not exactly terminology in common use; I came up with EXACTLY one (1) hit using Google – care to guess where that was?
    .
    .Sorry; no preview option
    Darn spell check; was to be “Lunar Declinational Tides,” in the oceans they are almost nonexistent, due to the high density of water, and being bounded by land. In the atmosphere, however they are unbounded, and there for produce the turbulent flow expected in an unbounded “ocean ” of air, as well as the really weak height anomaly shifts, seen around the higher mountain chains.
    Main stream Meteorologists found no declinational tidal effects, in the oceans and ASSUMED, that there would be even less chance of finding them in the Atmosphere, so they did not look.
    The atmospheric tides, driven by the Lunar Declinational movements of the North/South movement of the Moon, are the main drivers of the medial flows surges in the atmosphere. These pulses of equatorial air move off the ITZ following the Moon’s movement, maintain the patterns in the Rossby waves, and resultant patterns in the Jet streams.
    I have found a repeating pattern in the global atmospheric circulation that repeats naturally, with an approximately 87% correlation, well enough that three cycles of it added together result in the forecast you can see on the web site mentioned (click my name).
    The individual daily weather data from 6,992 days ago, 13,550 days ago and 20,108 days ago when averaged together, produce the forecast maps presented for the next 4 years. The data was tabulated, in August of 2007 and generated into the maps September – December 2007, that have been posted unchanged since onto the site .
    Just trying new options, as models don’t work farther than 10 to 15 days out, and farmers and others, need better long lead forecasting than that.

  44. Larry, in the Sierra Club announcement ““As polluters and their allies continue to try and muddy the waters around climate science … ”
    is the Sierra Club referring to such “pollution” as the IPCC Assessment Reports?

  45. There’s a “Tell Us What You Think” button at the bottom of the new Climate Service web page. Here’s what I wrote … I encourage everyone to tell them exactly what you think about this nonsense …
    w.

    I understand that Tom Karl is going to head up this new service. Here’s Tom, from the CRU emails:
    From: “Thomas.R.Karl”
    To: Phil Jones
    Subject: Re: FW: retraction request
    Date: Tue, 19 Jun 2007 08:21:57 -0400
    Cc: Wei-Chyung Wang
    Thanks Phil,
    We R now responding to a former TV weather forecaster who has got press, He has a web site
    of 40 of the USHCN stations
    showing less than ideal exposure. He claims he can show urban biases and exposure biases.
    We are writing a response for our Public Affairs. Not sure how it will play out.
    Regards, TOm
    Phil Jones said the following on 6/19/2007 4:22 AM:
    Wei-Chyung and Tom,
    The Climate Audit web site has a new thread on the Jones et al. (1990)
    paper, with lots of quotes from Keenan. So they may not be going to
    submit something to Albany. Well may be?!?
    Just agreed to review a paper by Ren et al. for JGR. This refers
    to a paper on urbanization effects in China, which may be in press
    in J. Climate. I say ‘may be’ as Ren isn’t that clear about this in
    the text, references and responses to earlier reviews. Have requested
    JGR get a copy a copy of this in order to do the review.
    In the meantime attaching this paper by Ren et al. on urbanization
    at two sites in China.
    Nothing much else to say except:
    1. Think I’ve managed to persuade UEA to ignore all further FOIA
    requests if the people have anything to do with Climate Audit.
    2. Had an email from David Jones of BMRC, Melbourne. He said
    they are ignoring anybody who has dealings with CA, as there are
    threads on it about Australian sites.
    3. CA is in dispute with IPCC (Susan Solomon and Martin Manning)
    about the availability of the responses to reviewer’s at the various
    stages of the AR4 drafts. They are most interested here re Ch 6 on
    paleo.
    Cheers
    Phil
    So Tom Karl’s brilliant response to someone showing that you guys have done a very poor job of overseeing the ground stations is not a plan to fix what you’ve done wrong, not an admission of your faulty oversight, not a statement about the poor siting of many of the stations, but a “Press Release”??? A press release, get real.
    And Tom went right along with Phil Jone’s illegal and immoral plan to turn down all Freedom of Interest requests from anyone associated with Climate Audit without a comment??? Funny, I don’t recall seeing “Associated with ClimateAudit” in the list of reasons for ignoring FOI requests … hell of an ethical scientist, that Tom.
    I made the first FOIA request to CRU, a simple request for the data and station list. It was turned down with a succession of bogus excuses. Now we find out that Tom Karl and Phil Jones and others were in collusion to deny legal requests for standard scientific data, data that we should never have even had to request … thanks, Tom, you’re a real prince. We can see how much you respect the scientific method. See my post at
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/24/the-people-vs-the-cru-freedom-of-information-my-okole…/
    for an overview of the scientific malfeasance that Tom Karl signed off on.
    Look, you guys can name anyone you want to run this circus. But when you put someone up there who winks at illegal actions and thinks that a proper response to shoddy, shabby work is a press release, don’t be surprised when people laugh and point. Because I assure you, that is what is happening right now, this moment, all over the planet. You want respect? Put someone honest in charge, someone who doesn’t go along with illegal actions, someone who actually cares about the quality of the data you are gathering.
    Because putting the fox in charge of the henhouse no longer works in 2010, everything is now available for public inspection. You know, it seems like you folks just don’t get this new “Internet” thing. Your warts are all visible, your sins of omission and commission are well documented, your boss Tom Karl has been caught with his pants down, and you think putting up some glossy web site with him in charge is the right answer?
    Like I said, people are laughing and pointing … you sure that’s what you want? NOAA used to be worthy of respect, and it could be again … but the respect has to be earned. Naming Tom Karl as the head of this farrago merely ensures that you will get no respect at all.
    Sincerely,
    Willis Eschenbach

  46. This new Agency will neither change the sign of the negative slope of global temperatures over time nor the sign of the negative slope of the number of US citizens who believe in AGW over time

  47. Richard Holle, but you have the patterns over SE Minnesota wrong, and have forecast between two and four times as much snow as we are getting.
    Once you create a federal department, it is very hard to get rid of it. That it parallels existing departments doesn’t seem to matter.

  48. Steve Schaper (21:38:01) :
    Richard Holle, but you have the patterns over SE Minnesota wrong, and have forecast between two and four times as much snow as we are getting.
    (snip)
    My reply: The data from the past three cycles, all came from periods of higher solar activity, and would fall into the same type of pattern, if the current extended solar minimum had not of occurred.
    The current prevailing conditions of colder, dryer northern US is in all probably, a result of the more southern extension of the jet streams, that itself may be caused by the lower level of solar activity.

  49. That I have found a natural analog that shows ANY promise at all was unexpected when I started looking.
    That it can predict the timing of the outbreaks in severe weather, months and years in advance, with any recognizable patterns, gives me reason to further explore the interactions causing, this preliminary study to do better than the models perform out past 10-15 days.

  50. Richard Holle,
    Have you come across Ken Rings site, Predict Weather in NZ ? He uses similar methods to yours and locks in forecasts 4 years ahead, and I have found over the past three years that his forecasts whilst not spot on, he says give a few days leeway, give rain periods in a month with much better accuracy than BoM in Australia.
    He forecasts for NZ, UK, Ireland and Australia
    I keep rainfall records and over the years have noticed bands across the pages that translate to lunar periods, and an ~18 year repeat.

  51. Oh, I see, this was the reason you are going bankrupt:
    Individuals and decision-makers across widely diverse sectors – from agriculture to energy to transportation – increasingly are asking NOAA for information about climate change in order to make the best choices for their families, communities and businesses
    Seriously, don’t think a private company would take into consideration any NOAA forecasts. They pay private companies to do that. It’s about risking real money not to please somebody’s ideology.

  52. Is it true that this new NOAA will operate in six or seven new territorial regions instead of the known states. Is somebody thinking to change your political structure?

  53. Julian Braggins (02:33:51) :
    Richard Holle,
    Have you come across Ken Rings site, Predict Weather in NZ ? He uses similar methods to yours and locks in forecasts 4 years ahead, and I have found over the past three years that his forecasts whilst not spot on, he says give a few days leeway, give rain periods in a month with much better accuracy than BoM in Australia.
    He forecasts for NZ, UK, Ireland and Australia
    I keep rainfall records and over the years have noticed bands across the pages that translate to lunar periods, and an ~18 year repeat.
    My reply; I have been in contact with Ken Ring since 2002, and I am even mentioned on his site and in one of his books. He uses a slightly different set of periodicities than I am looking at, but the method he uses to extract his forecast is an active process that can consider more than I do.
    What I have done is pull out a repeating pattern of 6558 days(`18 years) and passively combine three repeats, of the cycle together with out any active filtering, nor applying any algorithms, adjustments, or exclusions of any data, so I get a very fuzzy picture that could be much improved if a good programmer could be utilized to make a v2.0 product of what I have been doing.

  54. This just in from that AGW fighter Senator Inhofe’s EPW Minority Blog (http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Blogs):
    EPW HEARINGS POSTPONED DUE TO WEATHER
    February 9, 2010
    Posted Matt Dempsey matt_dempsey@epw.senate.gov
    UPDATE: The following Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works hearings have been postponed due to inclement weather this week:
    – The Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works, Subcommittee on Water and Wildlife, will hold a hearing entitled, “Collaborative Solutions to Wildlife and Habitat Management.”
    – The Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works will hold a hearing entitled, “Global Warming Impacts, Including Public Health, in the United States.”
    Once the hearings are rescheduled, information will be posted at http://www.epw.senate.gov

  55. “HONK IF YOU [HEART] GLOBAL WARMING”
    Here’s another good one from Sen. Inhofe (http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Blogs):
    Inhofe Family Pokes Fun at Al Gore, Global Warming During DC Blizzard of 2010
    February 9, 2010
    Posted by Matt Dempsey matt_dempsey@epw.senate.gov
    Heard on the Hill: Global Warming Snow Job
    By Emily Heil and Elizabeth Brotherton
    Roll Call Staff
    Feb. 9, 2010
    While most Washingtonians took cover during the Blizzard of 2010 (or Snowpocalypse, or Snowmaggedon – whatever you want to call it) Sen. James Inhofe’s family braved the storm to poke fun at former Vice President Al Gore.
    The Oklahoma Republican’s daughter, Molly Rapert; her husband, Jimmy; and their four children built an igloo – roomy enough to fit several people inside – at Third Street and Independence Avenue Southeast.
    They officially dedicated the humble abode in honor of global-warming crusader Gore, even posting a cardboard sign on the igloo’s roof reading “AL GORE’S NEW HOME” on one side and “HONK IF YOU [HEART] GLOBAL WARMING” on the other.
    Inhofe, the ranking member of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, is famously one of Congress’ most vocal critics of global warming. And he told HOH that he found his family’s ironic tribute to Gore – which came during one of Washington’s snowiest winters on record – “really humorous.”
    Inhofe was so proud of the construction effort, in fact, that he posted several pictures to his official Facebook page. Inhofe noted he wasn’t the only person who liked the igloo – several people honked to show support.
    It took five hours Saturday and three hours Sunday to build the igloo. “The funny thing was seeing how many people would stop to pose in front of it,” Molly Rapert said.
    And while this week’s expected snowy weather will ensure the igloo won’t melt, Inhofe did admit that he fears the structure might meet a premature demise by global-warming believers.
    “I know that somebody is going to end up tearing it down,” Inhofe said. “Because there are a lot of people who can’t take a joke.”
    Visit Senator Inhofe’s Facebook Page For More Pictures

  56. The issue should not be “Is AGW true?”
    It should be “What are the odds of it being true?”
    And — if true “What are the odds the outcome will be a very bad thing?”
    We ask these two questions in one form or another every time we start up our car. Most times we put on a seatbelt. In 55 years of driving, I’ve never needed one. The odds are very much against it being necessary. But I still use it. So do you (well — many of you).
    So the task we must all take on is to assess the probability of the AGW advocates substantially overestimating the environmental effects of an ever increasing CO2 level.
    Those who deny the scientific claims, or denigrate them, or ignore them, or “study” them only on anti-AGW web sites are, implicitly, claiming that their personal assessmant of climate danger is effectively 0%. My personal assessment of this threat, made after a year of study, is that it is at least 67%. Even if it were 1%, I’d still be in favor of an insurance policy. The current “cap and trade” bill is such a policy — probably not the best policy. Right now, it appears to be the only one we might “buy.”

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