January 2010 UAH Global Temperature Update +0.72 Deg. C
by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
UPDATE (4:00 p.m. Jan. 4): I’ve determined that the warm January 2010 anomaly IS consistent with AMSR-E sea surface temperatures from NASA’s Aqua satellite…I will post details later tonight or in the a.m. – Roy
YR MON GLOBE NH SH TROPICS
2009 01 +0.304 +0.443 +0.165 -0.036
2009 02 +0.347 +0.678 +0.016 +0.051
2009 03 +0.206 +0.310 +0.103 -0.149
2009 04 +0.090 +0.124 +0.056 -0.014
2009 05 +0.045 +0.046 +0.044 -0.166
2009 06 +0.003 +0.031 -0.025 -0.003
2009 07 +0.411 +0.212 +0.610 +0.427
2009 08 +0.229 +0.282 +0.177 +0.456
2009 09 +0.422 +0.549 +0.294 +0.511
2009 10 +0.286 +0.274 +0.297 +0.326
2009 11 +0.497 +0.422 +0.572 +0.495
2009 12 +0.288 +0.329 +0.246 +0.510
2010 01 +0.724 +0.841 +0.607 +0.757
The global-average lower tropospheric temperature anomaly soared to +0.72 deg. C in January, 2010. This is the warmest January in the 32-year satellite-based data record.
The tropics and Northern and Southern Hemispheres were all well above normal, especially the tropics where El Nino conditions persist. Note the global-average warmth is approaching the warmth reached during the 1997-98 El Nino, which peaked in February of 1998.
This record warmth will seem strange to those who have experienced an unusually cold winter. While I have not checked into this, my first guess is that the atmospheric general circulation this winter has become unusually land-locked, allowing cold air masses to intensify over the major Northern Hemispheric land masses more than usual. Note this ALSO means that not as much cold air is flowing over and cooling the ocean surface compared to normal. Nevertheless, we will double check our calculations to make sure we have not make some sort of Y2.01K error (insert smiley). I will also check the AMSR-E sea surface temperatures, which have also been running unusually warm.
After last month’s accusations that I’ve been ‘hiding the incline’ in temperatures, I’ve gone back to also plotting the running 13-month averages, rather than 25-month averages, to smooth out some of the month-to-month variability.
We don’t hide the data or use tricks, folks…it is what it is.
[NOTE: These satellite measurements are not calibrated to surface thermometer data in any way, but instead use on-board redundant precision platinum resistance thermometers (PRTs) carried on the satellite radiometers. The PRT’s are individually calibrated in a laboratory before being installed in the instruments.]
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NOTE: Entire UAH dataset is here, not yet updated for Jan 2010 as of this posting
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There is a large disconnect between the data and the experience, and it would be good if someone would explain in simple terms why the people in most of North America, Europe and Asia can’t believe their lying eyes that their yard is covered with 6″ of partly cloudy that will not melt while the record has them well above normal. Hello?
The AGW crowd will have you believe that this “warming” proves that CO2 is the cause. This is false. Global Warming and Global Cooling is natural.
CO2 is a trace gas in the atmosphere. It’s contribution to surface temps is theoretical and unknown.
Once the population has moved on from the “Gore, Mann, Pachauri, Jones” warnings. Reasonable people will be able to evaluate real climate changes in a rational manner.
The Indian government seems to have had enough by exiting the IPPC process. Their new scientific process will no doubt find that glaciers are not melting and rivers will not dry up.
Cap and trade is dead, we still need a full investigation of the CRU and their American accomplices.
The planet warms, then it cools, then it warms again. Every once in a while we have an ice age.
I trust Dr. Spencer, and I have trusted satellite readings over surface stations for some time. However satellite temps have started to raise questions for me since the start of the severe NH winter. One issue is that satellites are measuring microwave emissions from oxygen molecules at various layers in the atmosphere and we know the atmosphere has been contracting for most of the satellite era. The second issue is that the snow cover in the NH this winter best compares with winters in the pre satellite era.
I would have greater confidence in temperature readings from remote sensing systems in current conditions if a coordinated validation exercise were carried out. This would require a few weeks of preparation, and would involve a series of radiosonde balloon launches at points along the projected ground track of the satellite to be tested. At each launch point several balloons would need to be released at staggered intervals so each was at the correct height in the atmosphere over the launch point prior to the satellite over flight. While there would be errors in the true altitude and ground positions of each group of radiosondes, this would be small compared to trying to validate against balloons launched at times and locations uncoordinated with the ground track of the satellite.
The $540000 stimulus grant recently awarded to Dr. Mann could be redirected to carry out this exercise over the continental USA.
Mike J. 17:42:45 That is one of the silliest things I heard in quite some time. When you buy a thermometer do you calibrate it to all the other thermometers in the world or to you trust that the factory calibrated it when they built it. Your thermometer does not care what the thermometer at your neighbors house says.
As it says in the paragraph you mentioned, the instruments are calibrated at the lab. They are reading the temperature independently of an other measurements. Just like your thermometer reads the temperature at your house independent of your neighbor’s thermometers.
Hmmm, this reminds me of something highly relevant to the topic under discussion:
Gail Combs: You wrote, “…if I understand this correctly from Bob Tisdale the warmer sea surface actually translates into a DROP in the ocean heat content.”
For the tropical Pacific that’s true. An El Nino event releases heat from the tropical Pacific, and the La Nina event replaces it. Here’s the most current version from a post I should have up tomorrow morning:
http://i49.tinypic.com/2nut183.png
But globally, OHC and SST can and does rise at the same time. Over the last three decades they both have risen.
Bob Tisdale or other commenters,
This isn’t OT, so please stay with me while I explain.
Back on 02 Feb ’10 WUWT had a post “Jo Nova’s ClimateGate Timeline: 30 years in the making (Edition 1.1)” where a commenter “geo (17:25:38)” said :
“This is cool, I like it. . . but you know what I’ve really been wanting recently?
A data flow diagram of data sets starting as raw data, going through a process (and who owns that process) and then being used as an input into the next process and the next data set, etc.
So like how does raw data aggregate into GHCN and GISS and CRUTEMP and data models and who does a process and where along the line.
I’d really like one of those.”
________
I was following the post but there were no return comments on Geo’s comment.
I see a significant value in what he is asking. So does an integrated flow chart exist so we can understand the whole data gathering, sending, processing and the interrelations between various organization?
If it doesn’t exist I would like to help someone do it. I have some time.
John
I am sure some else has posted this, but this shows the limitations of a single globally averaged number, as many can attest to, given the severity of winter in many places. It also shows the many causes of warmer temps – el nino warming the tropics, tremendous blocking over the NH pole – so although cold there, it is above normal because all the cold air is forced south. It also goes to show the models dont have clue what a warmer “global average” temp would mean for day to day weather for most.
“It looks like we might be in the grips of another 1998 style El-Nino event.”
Except we’re not. This El Nino was NO WHERE near as strong and is already fading. Compare Jan 4th SSTs to now.
Ok, I’m back.
I think a lot of people are thinking “With all the cold we had last month in the northern hemisphere, how could this be the warmest January in the last 30 years? Is it possible the satellite readings are wrong?”
Yes. It’s possible the satellite readings are wrong.
As it travels around the Earth, the AMSU (the instrument used to read what becomes UAH temperature anomalies) reads 30 scans in in the direction perpendicular to its orbit. Two of these scans are directly below the satellite and the each of the other 28 get progressively farther and farther away from the satellite in both the port and starboard directions. The further away from the satellite, the larger the error in its temperature readings.
Note that I didn’t say possible error. There’s no question at all these other 28 readings are wrong. The amount of error can be as high as 30 degrees Kelvin.
These errors are corrected via software. For each channel, the software checks the two neighboring channels and previous readings. This procedure is called a “Limb Adjustment”.
I have a short discussion of this in the “Adjusting Footprint Brightness” section of the post I made here:
http://magicjava.blogspot.com/2010/02/some-useful-climate-code.html
And you can find a full technical discussion of the issue here:
http://ams.allenpress.com/archive/1520-0450/40/1/pdf/i1520-0450-40-1-70.pdf
Unfortunately, the Limb Adjustment uses statistical techniques to determine the adjustment values for each footprint, not the hardcoded technique I discussed in my blog post. It’s possible these statistical techniques fail in the face of unusual weather events like what we saw this January.
But without having access to the source code, I can’t tell if these unexpectedly high readings are due to a statistical error in the software calculations or are actually correct.
If the daily SOI index continues at the current rock bottom levels, we could end up seeing another big Kelvin wave and El Nino Modoki picking up again despite the trades not being as weak as they have been. (according to TAO).
Could this El Nino actually drop OHC farther than the one in 97/98 if this means we see this event going on a bit longer than that one? I guess then whether it goes back up depends on what ENSO will do afterwards?
How common is it to hit Warmer water the Deeper you dive? An El Nino is warmer water rising to the surface? Is that it?
It’s normal that UAH has stronger reactions than GIS during strong El Ninos, you can look at 12-month averages and linear trends here (not including Jan2010 record) :
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah/from:1980/mean:12/plot/gistemp/from:1980/mean:12/plot/uah/trend/plot/gistemp/from:1980/trend
Now natural, skeptical, questions would be: Disregarding IPCC, warmists etc. Are the overall pictures from the temp series
A: Consistent with each other?
B: Consistent with a hypothesis of GHG warming with feedbacks giving, say, 2.5 deg C/doubling of CO2, with some 400 years to new equilibrium?
C. Consistent with a solar forcing hypothesis explaining all the warming?
D: Consistent with Svensmark’s hypothesis?
E: Consistent with Akasofu’s hypothesis?
Feb is not starting off well. It’s at record level as well (I know, only 4 days in…)
Still, this proves that the oceans are in charge. What must be shown is a CO2ocean warming link. That has not been proven. Ocean heat content has been decreasing for the last 5-6 years, ever since ARGO went active….
Ok, this has never been answered to my satisfaction.
Surface measurements are done ~1.5 from the surface. Satellites are measuring several thousand feet above the surface which obviously is colder than the surface.
How is the baseline (.146 for HadCRUT and .238 for GISS) then in any way related to the difference in raw temperature?
In other words, suppose all temperature products have the same anomaly reported, making them “in good agreement”. How can this be when temperature generally decreases with height?
[quote John Whitman (18:36:51) :]
I see a significant value in what he is asking. So does an integrated flow chart exist so we can understand the whole data gathering, sending, processing and the interrelations between various organization?
[/quote]
I have a blog entry discussing this here:
http://magicjava.blogspot.com/2010/01/aqua-satellite-data-processing.html
and here:
http://magicjava.blogspot.com/2010/02/summary-of-aqua-satellite-data-computer.html
I think this will be a great proxy for AWG because if all the heat being released is “trapped” by CO2 then we should see temperatures go up to a higher state and stay there. But if the temperatures go down or stays level then I think it blows the AWG out of the water. See after the 1998 El Nino temps stayed high due to the PDO still positive and AMO peaking positive but now both are negative so the next few years will truly tell us who is correct or maybe something else will come up to crow about.
Leif Svalgaard (17:24:37) :
Folks, many posts are pathetic. When satellite data agrees with cooling, you say they are the best thing since sliced bread. When they show warming, you whine about calibration, etc.
The real explanation is, of course, that the lack of serious solar activity is driving heat out of the oceans 🙂
Careful Leif some of the people here may actually believe you. 😉 And sliced bread isn’t the best thing, twinkies are!
Leif Svalgaard (17:24:37) :
And we cannot believe this is the warmest January ever when the bulk of the N. Hemisphere OBSERVED a colder winter than has been seen in quite some time.
It makes no sense, Leif, no sense at all.
Where on this planet Earth was the correspoding massive heat to offset the colder winter to produce the warmest global January ever recorded?
Where?
This is absolutely incredulous.
I believe Dr. Spencer is faithfully reporting the data as it comes out the end of the pipeline.
When you see something that says 4-4=3, it’s time to ask what went wrong.
Last year it was a satellite glitch or two.
What is it this time?
I screwed up the Italics shoot
As always, the atmosphere surprises us every so often. That is part of the fun behind examining weather. I trust what Roy has posted, and I also think it is related to El Nino.
One thing seems to be constant – all of the big winter storms come up from Texas! Lol! When I lived in Wisconsin, which of course sometimes got really big snowstorms (the biggest I remember was a 20-incher in mid-April 1973), the meteorologists would always refer to that type of storm as coming from a “Panhandle low.” That (relatively) warm, moist Gulf air really adds punch to any low pressure system storm that heads north.
[quote Leif Svalgaard (17:24:37) :
Folks, many posts are pathetic. When satellite data agrees with cooling, you say they are the best thing since sliced bread. When they show warming, you whine about calibration, etc.
[/quote]
I see where you’re coming from with this Dr. Svalgaard, but I don’t think it’s that simple.
An El Nino isn’t going to change anyone’s mind about global warming. The believers will still be believers and the skeptics will still be skeptics.
I think what a lot of folks are thinking is that this January didn’t seem even close to the warmest since 1979. In fact, it was down right cold. So I think folks are trying to reconcile this fact with the satellite readings.
And in doing that, I think it’s natural to ask is there something about this unusual winter that “broke” the satellite. And if you’ve read my post about the statistical processing of the AMSU (which came after your post), you can see there may be something to the idea this strange winter broke the satellite.
Dr. Spencer releasing his source code would solve the issue one way or another.
MattN (18:42:37) :
I agree. There is nothing exceptionally warm or strong about this El Nino.
Snow levels across California have been moderate 3000-5000′. No 7000-10000′ tropical deluges to be found. A few heavy snowfalls, nowhere near the records of big event years. No general flooding across the state.
magicjava (19:05:27) : ” I have a blog entry discussing this here:
http://magicjava.blogspot.com/2010/01/aqua-satellite-data-processing.html
and here: http://magicjava.blogspot.com/2010/02/summary-of-aqua-satellite-data-computer.html ”
—–
magicjava,
Thanks for your quick response. Appreciate it.
Yes, before I commented [John Whitman (18:36:51) :] I saw your entry and went to your sites. Your sites are along the lines I was thinking and prompted me to recall the Geo entry from Jo Nova’s post.
Yours is for satellite data, correct?
I would like to see a master chart of satellite, ocean bouys, land, ice, etc etc.
I want to do this, but as my experience on many years of management that where to start is the hardest aspect to establish on a project. Suggests?
John
“Where on this planet Earth was the correspoding massive heat to offset the colder winter to produce the warmest global January ever recorded?
Where?”
Besides the SH, in the Arctic perhaps? If I’m not mistaken the negative Arctic Oscillation caused an extra cold winter in the NH by blowing all that cold air out of the Arctic? There are some neat graphics in the latest ‘Climate Denial Crock of the Week’ (which I won’t be posting here for obvious reasons) on Youtube explaining this.