Guest post by David Archibald
Solar Cycle 24 is now over a year old, so it is appropriate to see how it is ramping up.
Solar Cycle 24 was a late starter, about three and a half years later than the average of the strong cycles in the late 20th century and almost three year later than the weak cycles of the late 19th century. It was almost as late as Solar Cycle 5, the first half of the Dalton Minimum. The last few months have seen it ramp up relatively rapidly.
[Note: Solar Cycle 22 and 23 are overlaid on solar cycle 3 and 4 above to show similarity]
Plotting up the last three solar cycles relative to the Dalton Minimum, another solar minimum is not precluded by the data to date.
With Solar Cycle 23 ending up at twelve and a half years long, applying Friis-Christenson and Lassen theory to the temperature record of Hanover, New Hampshire results in a two degree centigrade decline in the annual average temperature at this location over the expected twelve years of Solar Cycle 24, from December 2009 to late 2021. Given some record low monthly averages in the northeast US in the recent summer, and the current cold winter, this cooling is well under way.
Huh, I meant a plot of SC 24 is shown, not SC 25.
John
Hi John Hultquist
As we all can see, temperatures on earth depend on clouds and overcast conditions. The more clouds are formed, the more light from the sun is bend away, the cooler and darker it gets.
The Svensmark theory holds that galactic cosmic rays (GCR) initiate cloud formation. I have not seen this, but apparently this has been proven in laboratory conditions. So the only real variability in global temperature could be caused by the amount of GCR reaching earth. In turn, this depends on the activity of the sun, i.e. the extent of the solar magnetic field exerted by the sun on the planetary system. Apparently we are now coming out of a period where this field was bigger and more GCR was bent away from earth (this is what we, skeptics, say really caused “global warming”, mostly).
But apparently now the solar geomagnetic field is heading for an all time low.
Look here:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/01/07/suns-magnetic-index-reaches-unprecedent-low-only-zero-could-be-lower-in-a-month-when-sunspots-became-more-active/
Note that in the first graph, if you look at the smoothed monthly values, there was a tipping point in 2003 (light blue line). I cannot ignore the significance of this. I noted similar tipping points elsewhere round about that same time.. From 2003 the solar magnetic field has been going down. To me it seems for sure that we are now heading for a period of more cloudiness and hence a period of global cooling.
I am not sure why we donot hear much from Henrik Svensmark on his theory? Why he never gets invited on TV is a mystery to me. I would love to see him defend his theory in public.
desmugblog lists “The Sun”, as a driver for climate change as one of the false concepts touted by AGW skeptics. Oh no! It appears we are supposed to write off that big yellow ball in the sky that is the source for 99.999% of earth’s heat as having anything to do with changes in earth’s global temperatures!
Would current sunspots/specs been recordable during cycle 5 ramp up?
I don’t see how one minor spot at a time can be considered “ramping up”.
Overall polar field intensity is on its way down, indicating that the SC24 max is not to far off (possibly some time in 2012).
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC6.htm
More polar field graphs at:
http://www.vukcevic.co.uk/GandF.htm
With the imminent launch of the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), the next decade of discovery should be most exciting as it helps track the evolution of cycle 24. Wonder how many surprises will unfold and how many theories will be revised.
Henry,
210 year de Vries cycle…
[PDF] The Past and Future of Climate solar activity, on a 210 year (de Vries) cycle. As it is now 213 years since the beginning of the Dalton Minimum, …
http://www.davidarchibald.info/papers/The%20Past%20and%20Future%20of%20Climate%202009.pdf
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V11/N23/EDIT.php
The intensity of 210-year cycle (the de Vries cycle) is 2-4 times more than that of 90-year ones … century period coincides with epoch of 2400- and 210- year solar activity cycles enhancement. …
http://adsabs.harvard.edu/full/2000ESASP.463..521S
http://www.wsl.ch/staff/jan.esper/publications/Raspopov_2008_PPP.pdf
http://www.spaceandscience.net/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderfiles/researcherswhopreviouslydiscoveredthebicentennialcycle.doc
Also, thank you Dr. Archibald for the enlightening tie between temperature to the sun’s activity. Will make it a point to read Friis-Christenson and Lassen’s paper.
A few questions.
1. Is the cooling only going to affect the “northeast US”. Why for example did David not mention the the “high quality satellite data” (to use his words).
2. Why did he also not mention the Armagh data which is also prominent in his previous work.
3. Can he provide a link to the New Hampshire data.
4. Can he also provide us with the exact data used in his scatterplot and regression. I’ve counted 14 data points – what exactly do these represent.
toyotawhizguy (23:57:37) :
desmugblog lists “The Sun”, as a driver for climate change as one of the false concepts touted by AGW skeptics.”
If they can successfully sell mankind the concept that “it can’t possibly be the sun”, we are all at their mercy! Fits on same level as prisoners learning to love their torturers. Brainwashing.
I trust the comparisons based on the Layman’s Sunspot Count over other sunspot numbers. With better technology we are now seeing spots even a teenager before a date wouldn’t find. The solar cycle comparison to the Dalton minimum is even closer using the Layman’s count.
Further to this I would add that the correlation between solar activity and climate needs to be revisited. All three main global temperature records have been shown to be compromised. In addition there have been too many convenient adjustments to TSI and other solar activity indicators recently. Jack Eddy said “Many plugs”. The CLOUD experiment is one avenue of inquiry but I can think of a few others.
From the instant post: “The last few months have seen it ramp up relatively rapidly.”
Maybe, I’m missing something, here, but I haven’t noticed a plethora of Sunspots or a large jump in magnetic flux.
Could somebody explain what I’m missing?
Why do we count sunspots again when they re-emerge from behind the sun? The large blotch near the top of the sun has been round twice since around Xmas.
I am curious about the claim of Oliver K. Manuel to have been “Former NASA PI for Apollo”. This is a rather enormous claim. If it were true, you’d think there would be some record of this on NASA’s website. But a search for “Oliver Manuel” reveals only one result, which is about a poster presented at a meeting. “Oliver K. Manuel” gives no hits.
If memory serves me correctly, cycles always ramp-up quickly and descend slowly. 4.3yrs ascending and 6.7yrs descending.
And according to solar physicist Dean Pesnell of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center there has been a 6% reduction in the suns extreme UV wavelengths since 1996.
My laymans brain doesn’t comprehend all that too well so maybe someone knowledgable can explain it.
If Dr. Svalgaard shows up, I’d like to thank him for sharing his insights and for keeping his F-10.7 charts updated.
http://www.leif.org/research/TSI-SORCE-2008-now.png
http://www.leif.org/research/F107%20at%20Minima%201954%20and%202008.png
As a non-specialist could I ask those more knowledgeable to comment on whether the Friis-Christenson approach works in multiple locations around the globe or whether it happens to be especially apposite for the NE USA.
this is your guy, hunter.
http://myprofile.cos.com/manuelo09
Ed Murphy (00:14:15) :
Henry,
“210 year de Vries cycle…”
Within solar activity, beside the 11 year cycle, most prominent peak is at 107 years, as shown on this FFT spectrum chart by Dr. Svalgaard.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/FFT-Power-Spectrum-SSN.png
This cycle controls most of the known and recorded anomalies. Of course if you double the 107 year period you get 214 years, very close to 210 known as de Vries cycle.
The 107 year cycle also faithfully reproduces the Maunder minimum; its mathematical and graphical presentation can be seen here:
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC4.htm
More anomaly charts:
http://www.vukcevic.co.uk/GandF.htm
>1. Is the cooling only going to affect the “northeast US”. Why for example did David not mention the the “high quality satellite data” (to use his words).
because satellite data shows no noticable cooling recently.
I think it’s because ocean area warms up during a (land) iceage, offseting the land cooling.
Not seen this idea supported by WUWT yet, even though if UAH is correct, and records colds are indicative of the land trend, then it MUST be true.
@hunter:
http://myprofile.cos.com/manuelo09
“…Special Recognition from NASA for service as PI in early lunar studies…”
Toolan
Anthony and Dr. Archibald:
After reading Friis-Christensen and Lassen’s paper I’m a little at loss of words. Wish I had found and read that month’s ago. Seems many of the same things I’ve been posting here were in that paper written back in 1991. A bit embarrassing. The 100 year pattern mentioned above, that must be close to what the paper listed as the 80 to 90 year Gleissberg period. Seems I’ve been recreating something written some 29 years ago! I didn’t realize that (but wish someone could have clued me if they knew). Just wonder if they also tried the area under the SST curve, not the height or width as the parameter.
One related thing that paper didn’t seem to touch on was mentioned by me in re-clarification to Leif near the bottom of the NODC revises ocean heat content.. article. It addresses the slow, decadal lag time of long term solar variation and storage or release of the excess heat in the oceans above or below the current equilibrium temperature. Probably because in 1991 they apparently only had SST readings not thick (700m) layer sea temperatures. That could be incorrect or in some paper I’m not aware of (following the “there’s nothing new under the sun” saying). Someone with proper letters needs to write an updated paper on this topic, peer reviewed of coarse.
Think I’ll pause and find a better way to search scientific papers before jumping in. Keep it up Anthony, to many your site’s a Godsend!
Ap geomagnetic index is out for January. It is 2, same as December.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/weekly/RecentIndices.txt This is still rock bottom.
Neutron count (cosmic rays) is finally showing a drop.
http://www.leif.org/research/Neutron-Monitors-Real-Time.htm
Down about 1% from the peak at Oulu: http://cosmicrays.oulu.fi/
The neutron count at last solar max was about 15% lower.
wayne (03:06:34) : How about 19 years ago, not 29. Spell checker went right by it 🙂
there is a very interesting PDF file on his website, concerning the sun’s control of the earths’ climate:
http://www.omatumr.com/
See “NEW: THE SUN: An Electro-Magnetic Plasma Diffuser that controls Earth’s climate” at the top of the page.
Toolan