NWF's winter weather wackiness

“The western United States has actually been seeing record snowfall in recent years, not “rapid declines” as claimed by NWF.”
Not according to the NSIDC –
http://nsidc.org/sotc/snow_extent.html
“The 28 year trend in snow extent derived from visible and passive microwave satellite data indicates an annual decrease of approximately 1 to 3 percent per decade with greater deceases of approximately 3 to 5 percent during spring and summer. Precipitation in regions of seasonal snow cover appears to be constant or increasing slightly in some locations over the same time period, which suggests that diminishing snow cover is the result of increasing temperatures. One region where the snow appears to be diminishing rapidly is the Western United States, especially in spring when the duration of snow cover has been decreasing by 2-3 days per decade (see blue-colored areas in the Spring Duration figure). This satellite-derived trend agrees with direct measurement of snow depth and extent on the ground (Mote et al. 2005).”
The Mote et al paper is here:
http://www.cses.washington.edu/db/pdf/moteetalvarandtrends436.pdf
“Snow course and SNOTEL measurements of spring snowpack, corroborated by a physically-based hydrologic model, are examined here for climate-driven fluctuations and trends during the period 1916-2002. Much of the mountain West has experienced declines in spring snowpack, especially since mid-century, and despite increases in winter precipitation in many places. Analysis and modeling shows that climatic trends are the dominant factor, not changes in land use, forest canopy, or other factors. The largest decreases have occurred where winter temperatures are mild, especially in the Cascade Mountains and Northern California. In most mountain ranges, relative declines grow from minimal at ridgetop to substantial at snowline. Taken together, these results emphasize that although the Pacific Decadal Oscillation has played some role in fluctuations in the region’s SWE, the West’s snow resources are already declining as Earth’s climate warms.”
The National Wildlife Federation’s concern about milder winters disrupting ecosystems seems to be justified on this basis.

Icarus,
If NSIDC says it, it must be true. Like director Mark Serreze predicting an ice free north pole in 2008. Or their forecast for a record minimum in 2008.
http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/200805_Figure4.png
This article contains links and graphs directly from the Rutgers University snow labs showing increasing autumn/winter snow extent in the Northern Hemisphere. It was also linked to in the current article
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/01/10/second-snowiest-december-on-record-in-the-northern-hemisphere/

Steve Goddard (09:33:09) :
Icarus,
If NSIDC says it, it must be true. Like director Mark Serreze predicting an ice free north pole in 2008. Or their forecast for a record minimum in 2008.
http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/200805_Figure4.png
This article contains links and graphs directly from the Rutgers University snow labs showing increasing autumn/winter snow extent in the Northern Hemisphere. It was also linked to in the current article
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/01/10/second-snowiest-december-on-record-in-the-northern-hemisphere/
Thanks for your comments. However, we are talking about observations, not predictions, and the observations are supported by independent papers (e.g. Mote et al). Also, the current article doesn’t cite any data supporting an increasing trend in snow extent – it only talks about isolated data points (e.g. the recent cold snap). One or two weeks of chilly weather in part of the Northern Hemisphere does not constitute a trend on decadal scales, and as we all know the planet is getting inexorably warmer, not cooler.

I will never understand why people even watch or read MSNBC its absolute agenda drivin garbage.

Here is a link to a news item about a new article in Science:
“Slowing Rise in Global Temperature Linked to Declining Stratospheric Water Vapor”
http://www.aaas.org/news/releases/2010/0129sp_vapor.shtml

Robert Townshend
Many thanks for that great link to Australian climate history -I repeat a part of Chapter 17 below-it just shows that modern temperatures are nothing unusual; This should be read in conjunction with my earlier post of Thomas Jeffersons observations of a warming cklim,ate in the 1750’s
Observation of Watkins Tench
http://ebooks.adelaide.edu.au/t/tench/watkin/
December 1790-vicinty of Sydney
“But at Sydney, without constantly dressing the ground, it was in vain to expect them; and with it a supply of common vegetables might be procured by diligence in all seasons. Vines of every sort seem to flourish. Melons, cucumbers and pumpkins run with unbounded luxuriancy, and I am convinced that the grapes of New South Wales will, in a few years, equal those of any other country. ‘That their juice will probably hereafter furnish an indispensable article of luxury at European tables’, has already been predicted in the vehemence of speculation. Other fruits are yet in their infancy; but oranges, lemons and figs, (of which last indeed I have eaten very good ones) will, I dare believe, in a few years become plentiful.
Apples and the fruits of colder climes also promise to gratify expectation. The banana-tree has been introduced from Norfolk Island, where it grows spontaneously.
Nor will this surprise, if the genial influence of the climate be considered.
Placed in a latitude where the beams of the sun in the dreariest season are sufficiently powerful for many hours of the day to dispense warmth and nutrition, the progress of vegetation never is at a stand. The different temperatures of Rose Hill and Sydney in winter, though only twelve miles apart, afford, however, curious matter of speculation.
Of a well attested instance of ice being seen at the latter place, I never heard. At the former place its production is common, and once a few flakes of snow fell. The difference can be accounted for only by supposing that the woods stop the warm vapours of the sea from reaching Rose Hill, which is at the distance of sixteen miles inland; whereas Sydney is but four.* Again, the heats of summer are more violent at the former place than at the latter, and the variations incomparably quicker.
The thermometer has been known to alter at Rose Hill, in the course of nine hours, more than 50 degrees; standing a little before sunrise at 50 degrees, and between one and two at more than 100 degrees.
To convey an idea of the climate in summer, I shall transcribe from my meteorological journal, accounts of two particular days which were the hottest we ever suffered under at Sydney.
[*Look at the journal which describes the expedition in search of the river, said to exist to the southward of Rose Hill. At the time we felt that extraordinary degree of cold were not more than six miles south west of Rose Hill, and about nineteen miles from the the sea coast. When I mentioned this circumstance to colonel Gordon, at the Cape of Good Hope, he wondered at it; and owned, that, in his excursions into the interior parts of Africa, he had never experienced anything to match it: he attributed its production to large beds of nitre, which he said must exist in the neighbourhood.]
December 27th 1790. Wind NNW; it felt like the blast of a heated oven, and in proportion as it increased the heat was found to be more intense, the sky hazy, the sun gleaming through at intervals.
At 9 a.m. 85 degrees At noon 104 Half past twelve 107 1/2 From one p.m. until 20 minutes past two 108 1/2 At 20 minutes past two 109 At Sunset 89 At 11 p.m. 78 1/2
[By a large Thermometer made by Ramsden, and graduated on Fahrenheit’s scale.]
December 28th.
At 8 a.m. 86 10 a.m. 93 11 a.m. 101 At noon 103 1/2 Half an hour past noon 104 1/2 At one p.m. 102 At 5 p.m. 73 At sunset 69 1/2
[At a quarter past one, it stood at only 89 degrees, having, from a sudden shift of wind, fallen 13 degrees in 15 minutes.]
My observations on this extreme heat, succeeded by so rapid a change, were that of all animals, man seemed to bear it best. Our dogs, pigs and fowls, lay panting in the shade, or were rushing into the water. I remarked that a hen belonging to me, which had sat for a fortnight, frequently quitted her eggs, and shewed great uneasiness, but never remained from them many minutes at one absence; taught by instinct that the wonderful power in the animal body of generating cold in air heated beyond a certain degree, was best calculated for the production of her young.
The gardens suffered considerably. All the plants which had not taken deep root were withered by the power of the sun. No lasting ill effects, however, arose to the human constitution. A temporary sickness at the stomach, accompanied with lassitude and headache, attacked many, but they were removed generally in twenty-four hours by an emetic, followed by an anodyne.
During the time it lasted, we invariably found that the house was cooler than the open air, and that in proportion as the wind was excluded, was comfort augmented.
But even this heat was judged to be far exceeded in the latter end of the following February, when the north-west wind again set in, and blew with great violence for three days. At Sydney, it fell short by one degree of what I have just recorded: but at Rose Hill, it was allowed, by every person, to surpass all that they had before felt, either there or in any other part of the world.
Unluckily they had no thermometer to ascertain its precise height. It must, however, have been intense, from the effects it produced. An immense flight of bats driven before the wind, covered all the trees around the settlement, whence they every moment dropped dead or in a dying state, unable longer to endure the burning state of the atmosphere. Nor did the ‘perroquettes’, though tropical birds, bear it better. The ground was strewn with them in the same condition as the bats.
Were I asked the cause of this intolerable heat, I should not hesitate to pronounce that it was occasioned by the wind blowing over immense deserts, which, I doubt not, exist in a north-west direction from Port Jackson, and not from fires kindled by the natives. This remark I feel necessary, as there were methods used by some persons in the colony, both for estimating the degree of heat and for ascertaining the cause of its production, which I deem equally unfair and unphilosophical.
The thermometer, whence my observations were constantly made, was hung in the open air in a southern aspect, never reached by the rays of the sun, at the distance of several feet above the ground.”

Icarus,
Here is a good read.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/01/23/sanity-check-2008-2009-were-the-coolest-years-since-1998-in-the-usa/
Temperatures in the US and Alaska have declined significantly over the last decade. Same for Europe, which is having the coldest winter in many decades after several cool summers and a cold winter last year.

Who knew “Global Whatever” could actually change the orbit and axis of the earth?! Somebody better notify Punxsutawney Phil.
“spring arrives 10 to 14 days earlier than it did just 20 years ago.”

Talk about wacky! The NWF warns if we don’t reduce our CO2 there won’t be enough snow for our snowmobiles. Of course we have to stop using snowmobiles to reduce our CO2.

The St. Francis Dam collapse and flood was human error, not weather related. After they designed and started building they raised the dam by ten feet, then another ten feet, enlarging the reservoir from 30,000 acre feet to 38,000 acre feet without making the base of the dam wider. It had cracks and leaks throughout its short existence (built 1925-26, collapsed March 12, 1928) yet no one did anything until the dam did it itself. A good source of information with photos is at http://www.sespe.com/damdisaster/

About two years ago I reported in this blog very mild winter conditions close to the Baltic Sea. I was told that the next winter (2008/2009) would still be mild (what was true) and the one we are having now – very cold (what has proven to be very much true again). Is it possible that anyone here with such global knowledge could comment on the winters at the Baltic Sea – for how long will the colds last this year and what are the predictions for the next years?

Can you imagin if the 1930’s dust bowls took place in the last 10 years; what do you think the headlines would be? What would the National Wildlife Federation say for just 1 year of a dust bowl type event let alone a decade? The more they scream and deceive the more sceptical I become.