NWF's winter weather wackiness

We’ve seen how the World Wildlife Fund reports were included in IPCC AR4 with disastrous results, now we have an example of a newspaper and TV Network hanging their entire story on a report from the National Wildlife Federation.

Here’s the WaPo story:

Harsh winter a sign of disruptive climate change, report says

By Juliet Eilperin and David A. Fahrenthold

Washington Post Staff Writer

Thursday, January 28, 2010; A10

This winter’s extreme weather — with heavy snowfall in some places and unusually low temperatures — is in fact a sign of how climate change disrupts long-standing patterns, according to a new report by the National Wildlife Federation.

… more here

Now here’s a few things to consider.

Ryan Maue writes at Climate Audit:

The title of the newest contribution is “Odd-ball Winter Weather:  Global Warming’s Wake-Up Call for the Northern United States” and the PDF can be downloaded from their website.   It is a well-manicured reported with glossy photos of wildlife, folks enjoying ice fishing and skiing, and snowplows.  Here is the introductory paragraph to get a flavor of the quality of the report:

Global warming is having a seemingly peculiar effect on winter weather in the northern United States. Winter is becoming milder and shorter on average; spring arrives 10 to 14 days earlier than it did just 20 years ago. But most snowbelt areas are still experiencing extremely heavy snowstorms. Some places are even expected to have more heavy snowfall events as storm tracks shift northward and as reduced ice cover on the Great Lakes increases lake-effect snowfalls. Even as global warming slowly changes the character of winter, we will still experience significant year-to-year variability in snowfall and temperature because many different factors are at play.

Ryan adds:

A few brief comments:  (1) Throughout the report, there is unscientific language in the headlines similar to “seemingly peculiar” like “odd-ball”, “erratic”, “surprises”, “patchy”, and “thrown for a loop”.  It is clear that the audience of the report is the layperson in the public, but using such terminology obfuscates the scientific message being made.  (2)  As the first paragraph highlights, there have been changes in winter weather during the past 20-years, a rather short time period to be making proclamations about trends or climate change for that matter.  Also, the equivocal nature of the final sentence needs to be translated:  global warming “slowly” changes the character of winter… year-to-year variability and different factors are at play =  natural climate oscillations and modes of large-scale variability trump the changes associated with global warming during the past 20-years.

Recent odd-ball (sic) weather events.

As WUWT readers know, we’ve seen lots of “odd-ball” weather before in the USA, often far worse than today.

1930's dust bowl. Image from Texas A&M University

Here are a few of the NWF claims:

The spatial extent of snow cover across the Northern Hemisphere has decreased by approximately 3 to 9 percent since 1978, with especially rapid declines in the western United States

This is highly misleading.  As reported earlier on WUWT,  December, 2009 had the second greatest December snow cover on record in the Northern Hemisphere.  17 out of the last 21 Decembers have had above average snow cover.  October, 2009 had the sixth greatest October snow extent on record in the Northern Hemisphere.  Seven out of the last ten Octobers have had above average snow cover.  January, 2008 had the third greatest snow extent ever measured in the Northern Hemisphere.  Seven out of the last nine January’s have had above average snow cover.

The western United States has actually been seeing record snowfall in recent years, not “rapid declines” as claimed by NWF.

NCDC snow report from the winter of 2007-2008 Numerous ski resorts in the West reported record breaking snowfall this year, as did parts of northern Maine. Caribou, Maine received 197.8 inches (502 cm) of snowfall this winter, shattering the previous record of 181.1 inches (460 cm).

Mt. Crested Butte, Colorado received 418 inches (1061 cm) during the 2007-08 winter, breaking the previous record of 415 inches (1054 cm) from 1979-1980. Even Spokane, Washington was the second-snowiest on record with 89.5 inches (227 cm), four inches (10 cm) short of the previous record from 1949-1950. The map to the right depicts the snowpack levels in many Rocky Mountain basins on May 1, 2008, illustrating a residual near to above average snow cover over much of the Rockies and Cascades in the western U.S. Thirty-two Snowtel locations reported record snow water equivalent records by the end of April.

NCDC snow report from the winter of 2008-2009

Across North America, snow cover for the 2008-09 winter was above average, with the 12th largest extent since satellite records began in 1967.

The winter of 2009-2010 has also started with record December snow cover in the US, and near record snow depth in the southern Rocky Mountains.

Arizona Snow Bowl, Flagstaff

5 FEET OF SNOW IN THE PAST 7 DAYS

Wolf Creek, Colorado

Midway Base Depth : 112 Inches

Last 7 Days : 56 Inches

Year to Date : 271 inches

Pajarito Mountain, New Mexico

YEAR-TO-DATE TOTAL 103″

BASE DEPTH (mid-mountain undisturbed) 60″

NWF Claim:

Stronger hurricanes, heavier rainfall, and rising sea levels: this is what global warming has in store for the U.S. Gulf and Atlantic coasts.

This again is misleading.  According to NOAA the number of major hurricane strikes on the US peaked in the 1940s at ten, and have been generally declining ever since.   (2001-2010 has had seven so far.)   The last Category 5 hurricane to strike the US was Andrew in 1993.  The last three years have seen exceptionally quiet hurricane activity in the US.

Sea level has been rising for 20,000 years since the end of the last ice age, when it was 400 feet lower.

http://www.globalwarmingart.com/images/1/1d/Post-Glacial_Sea_Level.png

Blaming sea level rise on CO2 isn’t going to fly.  According to NOAA, sea level is rising at about 2.5mm/year along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts of the US.  At that low rate, it will take nearly a millennium to rise to the high end of IPCC estimates.

NWF Claim:

Global warming will bring more extreme  heat waves. By the 2080s and 2090s, many parts of the country will have more than two months each year with 100-degree weather if global warming emissions are not curbed.

There is zero evidence of this in the temperature record.  NCDC data shows essentially no warming in US summer temperatures over the last 80 years.   The hottest summer was in the 1930s.

NCDC summer temperatures for the US  1930-2009

NWF claim:

Global warming has caused more heavy rainfall events in the United States over the last few decades along with an increased likelihood of devastating floods

Actually, the ten deadliest floods in US history all took place prior to 1977.

1. Johnstown, PA

May 31, 1889

Death Toll: 2,200

Several days of extremely heavy rainfall, brought about the collapse of the South Fork Dam, which was 14 miles upstream of Johnstown, PA.  It was the first major disaster relief effort handled by the new American Red Cross, led by Clara Barton. Support for victims came from all over the United States and 18 foreign countries. It remains one of the greatest disasters in U.S. history.

The Johnstown Flood also became a social cause celebre, because the dam that collapsed had been built to create a lake for vacationing millionaires, such as Andrew Carnegie and Andrew Mellon, while the inhabitants of the town were Welsh and German immigrants.

2. Mississippi Valley

January and February 1937

Death Toll: 1,100

Heavy rains flooded 12,700 square miles, destroying 75,000 homes, and leaving 600,000 refugees.

3. Ohio River

March, 1913

Death Toll: 700

Heavy rains brought severe flooding. The disaster led to the nation’s first flood control board and programs.

4. Santa Paula, CA

March 12, 1928

Death Toll: 450

Collapse of the St. Francis Dam

5. Rapid City, SD

June 9 – 10, 1972

Death Toll: 237

Flash flood

6. Kansas City, Missouri

May 16 – June 1, 1903

Death Toll: 200

Heavy rains brought flooding that raised the level of the Missouri River 35 feet.

7. Mississippi Valley

April – May 1912

Death Toll: 200

The Mississippi River overflows its banks.

8. Willow Creek, OR

1903

Death Toll: 200

Flash flood sweeps away a third of the town.

9. Man, WV

Feb. 26, 1972

Death Toll: 118

Slag pile dam collapses under torrential rains.

10. Loveland, CO

August 1, 1976

Death Toll: 139

Flash flood in Big Thompson Canyon

NWF claim:

Large parts of the western United States and much of the Southeast has already begun experiencing more frequent and more severe droughts

According to USDA, none of the southeast and very little of the west is experiencing a severe drought.   No doubt there is unsustainable water usage in the west, but this has little to do with climate.   The 1930s saw the worst droughts in US history.  Likewise, the Anasazi were driven out of their home by drought in the thirteenth century, but it is unlikely this was due to people driving Hummers in Chaco Canyon.  Drought cycles happen in the west, and they always have.

http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

In summary, it appears that NWF, like WWF, is spreading a large amount of global warming misinformation, and some news outlets like Washington Post and MSNBC seem to accept it without question.

h/t Thanks to Steve Goddard for rounding up rubuttal graphics

National Wildlife Federation Misinformation Campaign

1930s Dust Bowl Drought

The National Wildlife Federation has issued a new report “Odd-ball Winter Weather: Global Warming’sWake-Up Call for the Northern United States” containing an exceptional amount of misinformation.

Here are a few of their claims:

The spatial extent of snow cover

across the Northern Hemisphere has

decreased by approximately 3 to 9

percent since 1978, with especially

rapid declines in the western United

States

This is highly misleading.  As reported on WUWT – December, 2009 had the second greatest December snow cover on record in the Northern Hemisphere.  17 out of the last 21 Decembers have had above average snow cover.  October, 2009 had the sixth greatest October snow extent on record in the Northern Hemisphere.  Seven out of the last ten Octobers have had above average snow cover.  January, 2008 had the third greatest snow extent ever measured in the Northern Hemisphere.  Seven out of the last nine January’s have had above average snow cover.

The western United States has actually been seeing record snowfall in recent years, not “rapid declines” as claimed by NWF.

NCDC snow report from the winter of 2007-2008 Numerous ski resorts in the West reported record breaking snowfall this year, as did parts of northern Maine. Caribou, Maine received 197.8 inches (502 cm) of snowfall this winter, shattering the previous record of 181.1 inches (460 cm).

Mt. Crested Butte, Colorado received 418 inches (1061 cm) during the 2007-08 winter, breaking the previous record of 415 inches (1054 cm) from 1979-1980. Even Spokane, Washington was the second-snowiest on record with 89.5 inches (227 cm), four inches (10 cm) short of the previous record from 1949-1950. The map to the right depicts the snowpack levels in many Rocky Mountain basins on May 1, 2008, illustrating a residual near to above average snow cover over much of the Rockies and Cascades in the western U.S. Thirty-two Snowtel locations reported record snow water equivalent records by the end of April.

NCDC snow report from the winter of 2008-2009

Across North America, snow cover for the 2008-09 winter was above average, with the 12th largest extent since satellite records began in 1967.

The winter of 2009-2010 has also started with record December snow cover in the US, and near record snow depth in the southern Rocky Mountains.

Arizona Snow Bowl, Flagstaff

5 FEET OF SNOW IN THE PAST 7 DAYS

Wolf Creek, Colorado

Midway Base Depth : 112 Inches

Last 7 Days : 56 Inches

Year to Date : 271 inches

Pajarito Mountain, New Mexico

YEAR-TO-DATE TOTAL 103″

BASE DEPTH (mid-mountain undisturbed) 60″

NWF Claim:

Stronger hurricanes, heavier rainfall,

and rising sea levels: this is what global

warming has in store for the U.S. Gulf

and Atlantic coasts.

This again is misleading.  According to NOAA the number of major hurricane strikes on the US peaked in the 1940s at ten, and have been generally declining ever since.   (2001-2010 has had seven so far.)   The last Category 5 hurricane to strike the US was Andrew in 1993.  The last three years have seen exceptionally quiet hurricane activity in the US.

Sea level has been rising for 20,000 years since the end of the last ice age, when it was 400 feet lower.

http://www.globalwarmingart.com/images/1/1d/Post-Glacial_Sea_Level.png

Blaming sea level rise on CO2 isn’t going to fly.  According to NOAA, sea level is rising at about 2.5mm/year along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts of the US.  At that low rate, it will take nearly a millennium to rise to the high end of IPCC estimates.

NWF Claim:

Global warming will bring more extreme

heat waves. By the 2080s and 2090s,

many parts of the country will have

more than two months each year with

100-degree weather if global warming

emissions are not curbed.

There is zero evidence of this in the temperature record.  NCDC data shows essentially no warming in US summer temperatures over the last 80 years.   The hottest summer was in the 1930s.

NCDC summer temperatures for the US  1930-2009

NWF claim:

Global warming has caused more

heavy rainfall events in the United

States over the last few decades along

with an increased likelihood of

devastating floods

Actually, the ten deadliest floods in US history all took place prior to 1977.

1. Johnstown, PA

May 31, 1889

Death Toll: 2,200

Several days of extremely heavy rainfall, brought about the collapse of the South Fork Dam, which was 14 miles upstream of Johnstown, PA.  It was the first major disaster relief effort handled by the new American Red Cross, led by Clara Barton. Support for victims came from all over the United States and 18 foreign countries. It remains one of the greatest disasters in U.S. history.

The Johnstown Flood also became a social cause celebre, because the dam that collapsed had been built to create a lake for vacationing millionaires, such as Andrew Carnegie and Andrew Mellon, while the inhabitants of the town were Welsh and German immigrants.

2. Mississippi Valley

January and February 1937

Death Toll: 1,100

Heavy rains flooded 12,700 square miles, destroying 75,000 homes, and leaving 600,000 refugees.

3. Ohio River

March, 1913

Death Toll: 700

Heavy rains brought severe flooding. The disaster led to the nation’s first flood control board and programs.

4. Santa Paula, CA

March 12, 1928

Death Toll: 450

Collapse of the St. Francis Dam

5. Rapid City, SD

June 9 – 10, 1972

Death Toll: 237

Flash flood

6. Kansas City, Missouri

May 16 – June 1, 1903

Death Toll: 200

Heavy rains brought flooding that raised the level of the Missouri River 35 feet.

7. Mississippi Valley

April – May 1912

Death Toll: 200

The Mississippi River overflows its banks.

8. Willow Creek, OR

1903

Death Toll: 200

Flash flood sweeps away a third of the town.

9. Man, WV

Feb. 26, 1972

Death Toll: 118

Slag pile dam collapses under torrential rains.

10. Loveland, CO

August 1, 1976

Death Toll: 139

Flash flood in Big Thompson Canyon

NWF claim:

Large parts of the western United

States and much of the Southeast has

already begun experiencing more

frequent and more severe droughts

According to USDA, none of the southeast and very little of the west is experiencing a severe drought.   No doubt there is unsustainable water usage in the west, but this has little to do with climate.   The 1930s saw the worst droughts in US history.  Likewise, the Anasazi were driven out of their home by drought in the thirteenth century, but it is unlikely this was due to people driving Hummers in Chaco Canyon.  Drought cycles happen in the west, and they always have.

http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

In summary, it appears that NWF, like WWF, is spreading a large amount of global warming misinformation.

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Craig

This sort of alarmism and these sorts of outrageous claims fly in the face of common sense and are a direct contributor to the decline in public acceptance of global warming.

Ben

Hope someone posts a reply to the Washington Post that summarizes this info and provides a link to this site for their readers to review.
Plus, didn’t we just learn that the UN IPCC claims of weather extremes were brought into question as unsubstantiated or wrong?
Good report!

Pamela Gray

I wonder what statistical program they bought that has “…’seemingly peculiar’ …’odd-ball’, ‘erratic’, ‘surprises’, ‘patchy’, and ‘thrown for a loop'” measures in the statistical analysis pull-down? In my Ivory Tower days I used Statview SE. I don’t remember those particular measures being among the choices. Anyone have the calculations?

D. Patterson

“some news outlets like Washington Post and MSNBC seem to accept it with question.”
Should that read: “some news outlets like Washington Post and MSNBC seem to accept it with[OUT] question”?

Dr. Dave

I read this WaPo article just moments ago. I was stunned at the idiocy. More snow in the Great Lakes region because the Lakes didn’t freeze over and more water evaporated from the Lakes? Are you kidding me? I grew up on Lake Michigan. It NEVER freezes over. AGW only works in one direction (theoretically) – it WARMS. There is nothing in the theory to suggest it can trigger cold weather by magically upsetting Gaia.

John F. Hultquist

Here in the great State of Washington we are having weather just like the doctors ordered. What doctors, you ask?
The one’s that established the characteristics of El Nino weather-related events. Yes, it seems a bit mild and drier than normal. It fits the pattern perfectly and the pattern is not new nor does it have anything to do with a disruption of “long-standing patterns.” It is, in fact, a long-standing pattern.
I wonder how many science classes Juliet Eilperin and David A. Fahrenthold, the Washington Post Staff Writers, have on their school transcripts? Maybe they should go back to writing about school board elections and lawn-n-garden shows.

Ryan
Can you update the hurricane landfall records for 2005-2009. Otherwise it looks like you missed the hurricane fun year of 2006 when Katrina and Rita struck.

The NWF report comes “at a time when, despite a wealth of scientific evidence, the American public is increasingly skeptical that climate change is happening at all.”
OR
The NWF report comes “at a time when a lack of scientific evidence has the American public increasingly skeptical that climate change is happening at all.”
What is significant is that there has not been MORE of this sort of thing this (northern) winter. They just cant pull it off any more. Since Copenhagen there has been less stridence and lots of silence – more evidence that the tide has turned.

BOP

Typo patrol. Last paragraph says “…seem to accept it with question.” I think you mean “without question.” And last line should be “rebuttal graphics” vice “rubuttal.”
The history is unequivocal, we have had weather in the past even more extreme than today. The fact that we seem to forget history is what lets these outrageous claims stand.
Ben

Stephan

This is huge I personally would not agree with seeing Prof Jones in jail
http://www.climategate.com/climategate-professor-phil-jones-could-face-ten-years-on-fraud-charges
You see ICO is not really in charge…
British Fraud Act 2006
If true, should be prosecuted along with ALL the others but no jail term for anyone involved, in what is, after all, a scientific debate gone over the top and people being pressured to tow the line from the top.

Ranger Joe

Excuse my ignorance….but how could a cold snowy winter be a disruption of ‘normal’ climate patterns? It seems pretty routine to me. Am I missing something here? Is this more nuanced recalibration of reality from the elite Wizards of Smart to advance their phony agenda….aka….prol-feed? Like subtle the difference between ‘weather’ and ‘climate’?

Steve Goddard

John A,
The paragraph above the hurricane table reads:
(2001-2010 has had seven so far.)

This is progress. The Washington Post feeds MSNBC content, so really only one major outlet picked up the Press Release issued by the NWF. It is likely that with the failure of Copenhagen and the self-inflicted implosion of IPCC credibility that major newspapers are actually hesitant to publish or regurgitate a press release with the title “odd-ball winter weather caused by global warming”.
Also, with the State of the Union address in which Obama mentioned cap and trade, this publication by the Washington Post seems planned and likely a planted story for political reasons.

savethesharks

Thank you and great job uncovering the muck that surrounds the “science.”
It is hard to believe that idiots and fools continue to spout out this WWF bunk….but, you know, it is hard to believe anything these days.
One thing good is that the truth will win out and this site is helping in the process!!!
CHRIS
Norfolk, VA, USA

John Wright

Well at least it’s clear now: “climate change” = “global warming” as it always has, which is why winters are getting colder and recent summers have been cooler. Clear as mud.

philincalifornia

BOP (21:42:28) :
The history is unequivocal, we have had weather in the past even more extreme than today. The fact that we seem to forget history is what lets these outrageous claims stand.

But yet we have to endure comments such as one on Moonbat’s column today, saying that ALL skeptics are old (self-hating ?) males.
Sorry pal, but older folks know more about recent history, on the time-scale in question, having lived through it. This isn’t a case of the old saying “age and treachery defeats youth and skill”, but it may be case of age and skill ……

Steve Goddard

I attended a very pro-presentation by IPCC lead author David Randall a couple of years where he was asked if the record cold and snow in China could be explained by global warming.
His answer was “no.”

From: Kevin Trenberth
To: Michael Mann
Subject: Re: BBC U-turn on climate
Date: Mon, 12 Oct 2009 08:57:37 -0600
Cc: Stephen H Schneider , Myles Allen , peter stott , “Philip D. Jones” , Benjamin Santer , Tom Wigley , Thomas R Karl , Gavin Schmidt , James Hansen , Michael Oppenheimer
Hi all
Well I have my own article on where the heck is global warming? We are asking that here in Boulder where we have broken records the past two days for the coldest days on record. We had 4 inches of snow. The high the last 2 days was below 30F and the normal is 69F, and it smashed the previous records for these days by 10F. The low was about 18F and also a record low, well below the previous record low. This is January weather (see the Rockies baseball playoff game was canceled on saturday and then played last night in below freezing weather).
Trenberth, K. E., 2009: An imperative for climate change planning: tracking Earth’s global energy. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 1, 19-27,
doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2009.06.001. [1][PDF] (A PDF of the published version can be obtained from the author.)
The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t.

R. Craigen

There’s a joke going around in Mennonite circles:
Q: “How many Mennonites does it take to change a lightbulb?”
A: “CHANGE???!!!”
Mennonites like to poke fun at the caricature of themselves that exists in many people’s minds who think they all drive horses and buggies (actually the Luddite variety is a very small minority).
But it seems the NWF, WWF, IPCC etc. crowd are the ones who ought to have this joke told about them, because anything that reeks of (climate) “change” appears to be (literally) the end of the world in their minds. I’ve lived on this earth a mere 50 years, in many climate zones, but the one constant is that people continually apologize for the unusual weather. “In most years it’s not like this — this year is an exception”.
I’ve come to expect “exceptional weather” as the norm. It has been the case wherever I live, to the point that I think people construct a false image of what “normal” is in their region — probably based on some year or two in their youth in which some definitive event took place in their lives, and forever shaped their expectations for years to come. But the perception is simply false — there has ALWAYS been unusual weather. The only thing I find striking about this NWFS graphic is how FEW extreme weather events they identify during a 7-year period. Big deal — any 7 years in recorded history should produce about the same number.

savethesharks

ryanm: “Also, with the State of the Union address in which Obama mentioned cap and trade, this publication by the Washington Post seems planned and likely a planted story for political reasons.”
Very prescient observations. Right you are, man. Thank you.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA

jorgekafkazar

Pamela Gray (21:25:51) : “I wonder what statistical program they bought that has “…’seemingly peculiar’ …’odd-ball’, ‘erratic’, ’surprises’, ‘patchy’, and ‘thrown for a loop’” measures in the statistical analysis pull-down?”
Well, “patchy” obviously refers to Rajendra Pachauri, and is a synonym for those other words.
D. Patterson (21:28:33) : ” ‘some news outlets like Washington Post and MSNBC seem to accept it with question.’
“Should that read: ‘some news outlets like Washington Post and MSNBC seem to accept it with[OUT] question’?”
Halfway there, DP. It should read “Some propaganda outlets like Washington Post and MSNBC seem to eat it up without question.”

Remember the one about Antarctic ice increasing relentlessly because of a closed wind-system, caused by…yep, AGW.
Later, when one portion of the Antarctic did some melting…no more closed wind-system!
Meanwhile, since the hockeystick lost its straight handle, some of the believers are now touting overpopulation in the Middle Ages as the cause of global warming as the cause of shutting down the gulfstream as the cause of global cooling as the cause of Black Death as the cause of reforestation as the cause of more cooling…
Don’t even try with these guys.

rbateman

Global Oddball Disruptive Climate Change.
These claims certainly do have an odd way of flip-flopping about.
Highly disruptive to the consistency of thier message, which is now driven by an unbroken string of forecasting bellyflops and gross exaggerations neatly exposed.
That’s a lot of egg on those faces.

Pamela Gray (21:25:51) :
I wonder what statistical program they bought that has “…’seemingly peculiar’ …’odd-ball’, ‘erratic’, ’surprises’, ‘patchy’, and ‘thrown for a loop’” measures in the statistical analysis pull-down? In my Ivory Tower days I used Statview SE. I don’t remember those particular measures being among the choices. Anyone have the calculations?

Nope, no luck. Wolfram doesn’t give those options for statistical analyses either. Haven’t seen them in Origin 8, SAS or SPSS either.

ed bell

The US drought monitor graphic clearly shows the recovery we have experienced in the S.E. United States. We have suffered though quite a drought in Upstate South Carolina and surrounding areas, but it happens from time to time. When I first moved to this region in the early 1980’s there was a similar event. Lake Hartwell showed the same red clay ring seen for the last few years. They can’t hardly let enough water through the dam these days. This is a 900+ shore mile lake.

ed bell

The US drought monitor graphic clearly shows the recovery we have experienced in the S.E. United States. We have suffered through quite a drought in Upstate South Carolina and surrounding areas, but it happens from time to time. When I first moved to this region in the early 1980’s there was a similar event. Lake Hartwell showed the same red clay ring seen for the last few years. They can’t hardly let enough water through the dam these days. This is a 900+ shore mile lake.

Dr. Dave (21:31:45) :
AGW only works in one direction (theoretically) – it WARMS. There is nothing in the theory to suggest it can trigger cold weather by magically upsetting Gaia.

Tsk, tsk…AGW is so yesterday! That’s why they call it “Climate Change” these days. That way they can eat their cake and have it too! Didn’t you get the memo? Our existence upsets Gaia! Get with the program Doc!

rbateman

savethesharks (21:56:33) :
They should read the accounts of what it was like in the 1800’s – 1840’s in the US. Only the sturdiest and the brave ventured out into the fierce winters back then.

debreuil

Living in the Red River valley Canadian side, the flood of 97 was certainly worse than 2009. There was basically a small sea here in 97. Fargo may have crested the highest, but that is the first 15% of the river.
Well whatever, you can’t expect the truth every day from these people.

kwik

The following paper appeared in the March 2009 edition of the International Journal of Modern Physics.
The central claims of Dr. Gerlich and his colleague, Dr. Ralf Tscheuschner includes:
1) The mechanism of warming in an actual greenhouse is different than the mechanism of warming in the atmosphere, therefore it is not a “greenhouse” effect and should be called something else.
2) The climate models that predict catastrophic global warming also result in a net heat flow from atmospheric greenhouse gasses to the warmer ground, which is in violation of the second law of thermodynamics.
The AGW Theory is Science Fiction, in other words;
http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/arxiv/pdf/0707/0707.1161v4.pdf

L Gardy LaRoche

Donna LaFramboise writes:


Where does Greenpeace stop and the IPCC begin? Sometimes it’s difficult to tell.

http://nofrakkingconsensus.blogspot.com/2010/01/greenpeace-and-nobel-winning-climate_28.html

GREENPEACE-GENERATED LITERATURE CITED BY THE 2007 NOBEL-WINNING CLIMATE REPORT
* Aringhoff, R., C. Aubrey, G. Brakmann, and S. Teske, 2003: Solar thermal power 2020, Greenpeace International/European Solar Thermal Power Industry Association, Netherlands
* ESTIA, 2004: Exploiting the heat from the sun to combat climate change. European Solar Thermal Industry Association and Greenpeace, Solar Thermal Power 2020, UK
* Greenpeace, 2004: http://www.greenpeace.org.ar/cop10ing/SolarGeneration.pdf accessed 05/06/07
* Greenpeace, 2006: Solar generation. K. McDonald (ed.), Greenpeace International, Amsterdam
* GWEC, 2006: Global wind energy outlook. Global Wind Energy Council, Bruxelles and Greenpeace, Amsterdam, September, 56 pp., accessed 05/06/07
* Hoegh-Guldberg, O., H. Hoegh-Guldberg, H. Cesar and A. Timmerman, 2000: Pacific in peril: biological, economic and social impacts of climate change on Pacific coral reefs. Greenpeace, 72 pp.
* Lazarus, M., L. Greber, J. Hall, C. Bartels, S. Bernow, E. Hansen, P. Raskin, and D. Von Hippel, 1993: Towards a fossil free energy future: the next energy transition. Stockholm Environment Institute, Boston Center, Boston. Greenpeace International, Amsterdam.
* Wind Force 12, 2005: Global Wind Energy Council and Greenpeace, http://www.gwec.net/index.php?id=8, accessed 03/07/07

rbateman

Don’t like the climate…wait 30 years or so…it’ll change.
But alas the poor Climate Change artist…stuck on the same old song:
Let’s do the Climate Change Twist (aka – the Perpetual Motion Pretzel).

kwik
George Turner

This is the kind of press release that causes more and more of the public to think the warmists are a laughing stock.
In that vein, I always figured warming would cause cooling. It’s sort of a frigid heat, similar to what your freezer’s thermometere measures when you accidentally short it across 120 VAC – you see little glowy snowflakes dancing in front of your eyes as you try and beat out the flames.

Monckton features on the Sydney Morning Herald and delivering punch after punch to the little boy environment reporter who must now be fearing for his job. Reporter Cubby 0, Monckton 10
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/climategate-gives-lord-of-the-sceptics-plenty-of-ammunition-20100127-mywc.html

Gary

No, no, no! Hot means cold, cold means warm, warm means hot. Get your facts straight, that is, the NEW facts. Snow is a signature of a warming trend, the same as with brutal summers and heavy rainfall. Earthquakes and tsunamis are climate related, whereas weather is not, unless otherwise stated. I know this may sound confusing to the layperson, but so did “new math” when first introduced. This is “new science” and it has already taken the world by storm, which is fitting as instances of storms are increasing due to the aforementioned warming trend.
Gentlemen! Welcome to the New World! Up is down, down is up. Left is right, right is wrong. Have fun! It’s sleeting/snowing/freezing rain here in my home town. Love this warm/cold non-climate weather event we’re having! (North Arkansas)

Daphne

The part of the WaPo article that nearly made my head explode this morning was this:
‘On Wednesday, Yale and George Mason universities released a survey showing that just 57 percent of people said global warming “is happening.” That was down 14 percentage points, from 71 percent, in October 2008…
Edward Maibach, a George Mason professor, said two outside events may have played a role in the change: First came the recession; then Congress took up legislation to limit greenhouse gases, spurring industry groups and politicians to warn that tackling climate change would kick the economy while it was down.’
How about a THIRD outside event, known as CLIMATEGATE? Ever heard of that, Professor?

Meanwhile, an ice age is imminent in Eureka, California. If one extrapolates the recent trend, that is. Sixty-seven years ought to do it, to produce zero degrees C average temperature in Eureka. Someone call the tree-huggers so they can move all those Coastal Redwoods! That will take some planning and serious grunt-work to accomplish.
http://sowellslawblog.blogspot.com/2010/01/eureka-ca-headed-for-ice-age-in-67.html

D. Patterson

What more can you expect from postmodern science and postnormal and post modern scientists?
If that is the best they can do with billions of dollars funding their physical science, imagine the mischief they can do with their political science and postmodern journalism….

JohnH

Well now its water vapour
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1246904/Water-vapour-responsible-slowdown-global-warming.html
But some will just not listen.
Dr Vicky Pope, head of climate science at the Met Office, said: ‘Whatever’s causing this change from decade to decade is having an influence at the surface. But it is a small variation on top of the long term increase in manmade greenhouse gases.’

Oakwood

Hypocracy of a warmist.
UK Chief Scientist puts personal gain before environmental protection
The UK government’s chief scientist, John Beddington – who this week we heard saying that climate scientists need to be more open, while still claiming that AGW is real and a major threat (ie. we all need to do our bit to save the enviroenment) – is shown here to be putting personal profit over protecting wildlife:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article6997414.ece

Steve Goddard

20 Percent of Scientists Admit Using Brain-Enhancing Drugs
April 9, 2008
Nature released the results of an online survey in which 20 percent of respondents, largely drawn from the scientific community, admitted to using brain-enhancing drugs like Ritalin (methylphenidate) and Provigil (modafinil).
Sixty-two percent of the scientists who had taken drugs used Ritalin while 44 percent reported using Provigil and only 14 percent had tried beta blockers like propranolol.

http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2008/04/20-of-scientist/

Andy Scrase

I recently spent time in the UK for, sadly, my fathers funeral. The weather in the south west of England was bitterly cold, but I managed to escape to NZ before the really big snow arrived.
I did manage to get up to the bleak yet beautiful Dartmoor for a hike. This National Park, for those that know, is a wild and rugged environment that regularly takes the lives of unprepared people, even with the modern conveniences of Goretex and GPS.
If you visit the rocks of Hound Tor, nearby lay the ruins of a medieval village.
This village is little known, but is marked clearly on the OS Maps. Local knowledge says that people lived on the moors here until it became too cold to grow their crops and rear their livestock.
This village existed in a period commonly known as the Medieval Warm Period
Your honour, Exhibit A……

wayne

“Some places are even expected to have more heavy snowfall events as storm tracks shift northward…”
Sure, like the winter storm just tracking across New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma. Like the foot+ blizzard in the same just weeks ago. I wish they would shift northward!

Peter of Sydney

Well i suppose it’s possible that we could have an ice-age first before global warming becomes a problem. So what do we do about the possibility of an ice-age, which happens to be far worse than any global warming catastrophe the IPCC keeps peddling? Increase CO2 emissions perhaps?

People-and journalists in particular- seem to have no grasp of what the climate was doing before they were born, or that climate regularly fluctuates from warm to cold and back again. This from the weather diaries of Thomas Jefferson around 1770;
“A change in our climate however is taking place very sensibly. Both heats and colds are become much more moderate within the memory even of the middle-aged. Snows are less frequent and less deep. They do not often lie, below the mountains, more than one, two, or three days, and very rarely a week. They are remembered to have been formerly frequent, deep, and of long continuance. The elderly inform me the earth used to be covered with snow about three months in every year. The rivers, which then seldom failed to freeze over in the course of the winter, scarcely ever do so now.
This change has produced an unfortunate fluctuation between heat and cold, in the spring of the year, which is very fatal to fruits. From the year 1741 to 1769, an interval of twenty-eight years, there was no instance of fruit killed by the frost in the neighbourhood of Monticello. An intense cold, produced by constant snows, kept the buds locked up till the sun could obtain, in the spring of the year, so fixed an ascendency as to dissolve those snows, and protect the buds, during their developement, from every danger of returning cold. The accumulated snows of the winter remaining to be dissolved all together in the spring, produced those overflowings of our rivers, so frequent then, and so rare now.”
http://xroads.virginia.edu/~HYPER/JEFFERSON/ch07.html
The Hudson Bay records showed the same moderation in this period
More Historical records available from my site;
http://climatereason.com/LittleIceAgeThermometers/
If anyone has any similar records for anywhere in the world please let me know.
Tonyb

Ed Zuiderwijk

May be these people should read up on their physics. They say, in effect, that in a warming world the heat would stop to flow from hot to cold.
I will now cool my house in summer by switching on the heater and warm my house in winter by leaving the CH on stand by.

Andy Scrase
I have written several times here about Hound Tor which is quite close to me. Not far away is a Bronze age village even better preserved. They again had to abandon Dartmoor as the climate cooled. Exhibits A AND B.
(We have them all the way to Z but as its history its only ‘anecdotal’ of course, nowhere near as good as half baked computer models.)
Tonyb

Veronica

Phil in california
“But yet we have to endure comments such as one on Moonbat’s column today, saying that ALL skeptics are old (self-hating ?) males.”
Don’t worry about him. I have data to prove that I am a female “in my prime” and I think I’m fabulous.

Base "F"

This wonderfully cold winter has really caught the warmists on the hop without a pre-determined strategy because, so far, we have had:
1) Natural variation (UK Met Office)
2) It’s just a couple of weeks of cold weather. Nothing to do with climate (Schmitt et al).
3) It will “probably” be cooler for the next 20 years but that is masking the underlying warming (UK met office).
4) It’s an extreme weather event, typical of global warming (see above)
5) It’s not actually cold – we’ve just had the hottest year / decade on record (UK Met Office)
I live on an island and, even though it is the warmest decade ever, and “just a couple of weeks of cold weather”, our ferry service has just had to go onto a restricted timetable because of the pack ice. And that last occurred in 1987. Presumably before we had “unprecedented warming”.

Gail Combs

Zorro (22:56:04) :
“Monckton features on the Sydney Morning Herald…” http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/climategate-gives-lord-of-the-sceptics-plenty-of-ammunition-20100127-mywc.html
Did you notice the comment by Rob in Sydney?
“What you failed to mention is that Mr Monckton also believes that there was some great conspiracy to create a ‘one world government’ embedded in the UN treaty on climate change. I know nothing about climate change but I do know about treaties and if the rest of his critiques are as laughable as this one then the man is a patent fraud.
Now everyone put on their tin hats because the loonies are sure to jump on the comments page hard once they know it’s their chance to howl conspiracy, conspiracy conspiracy!”

The agenda has now changed to attack not CAGW but ” some great conspiracy to create a ‘one world government’ embedded in the UN treaty “ Given Maurice Strong, the father of Global warming and the environmental movement is a member of the U.N.-funded Commission on Global Governance it is no conspiracy but a fact. Now that Copenhagen has fallen through and people are starting to wake-up I think the promoters of a world government are regretting having shown their hand before their world government was completed.
1. We have an international police {obama gave them free license to work in the USA without oversight by the US government}
2. We have an international court. {On June 8, 2007, Under-Secretary of Agriculture Bruce Knight, speaking at the World Pork Expo in Des Moines, Iowa, said, “We have to live by the same international rules we’re expecting other people to do.” Knight was referring to the return and adherence to the International Criminal Court}
3. The UN and WTO are starting to write the laws that the USA, EU Canada Australia are “harmonizing” such as patent and farming laws (Animal ID)
Now the UN wants the right of direct taxation. With a police force, a court system, international laws imposed on member countries under threat of trade sanctions all that is left is taxation and an international currency. The trashing of the US dollar and the resulting call for another trade currency by China show that an international currency is in the works and other plans for a direct tax are already making the news. http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,583127,00.html
Lord Monckton was correct about the drive towards a world government.
“Also in 1991 Strong claimed that the Earth Summit, of which he was Secretary General, would play an important role in “reforming and strengthening the United Nations as the centerpiece of the emerging system of democratic global governance.” In 1995, in ‘Our Global Neighborhood’, the CGG [UN Commission on Global Governance] agreed: “It is our firm conclusion that the United Nations must continue to play a central role in global governance.” the Commission’s recommendations: for instance, that some UN activities be funded through taxes on foreign-exchange transactions and multinational corporations. … It also recommended that “user fees” might be imposed on companies operating in the “global commons.” including carbon taxes, which would be levied on all fuels made from coal, oil, and natural gas.” http://www.afn.org/~govern/strong.html%5D.