We’ve seen how the World Wildlife Fund reports were included in IPCC AR4 with disastrous results, now we have an example of a newspaper and TV Network hanging their entire story on a report from the National Wildlife Federation.
Here’s the WaPo story:
Harsh winter a sign of disruptive climate change, report says
By Juliet Eilperin and David A. Fahrenthold
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, January 28, 2010; A10
This winter’s extreme weather — with heavy snowfall in some places and unusually low temperatures — is in fact a sign of how climate change disrupts long-standing patterns, according to a new report by the National Wildlife Federation.
… more here
Now here’s a few things to consider.
Ryan Maue writes at Climate Audit:
The title of the newest contribution is “Odd-ball Winter Weather: Global Warming’s Wake-Up Call for the Northern United States” and the PDF can be downloaded from their website. It is a well-manicured reported with glossy photos of wildlife, folks enjoying ice fishing and skiing, and snowplows. Here is the introductory paragraph to get a flavor of the quality of the report:
Global warming is having a seemingly peculiar effect on winter weather in the northern United States. Winter is becoming milder and shorter on average; spring arrives 10 to 14 days earlier than it did just 20 years ago. But most snowbelt areas are still experiencing extremely heavy snowstorms. Some places are even expected to have more heavy snowfall events as storm tracks shift northward and as reduced ice cover on the Great Lakes increases lake-effect snowfalls. Even as global warming slowly changes the character of winter, we will still experience significant year-to-year variability in snowfall and temperature because many different factors are at play.
Ryan adds:
A few brief comments: (1) Throughout the report, there is unscientific language in the headlines similar to “seemingly peculiar” like “odd-ball”, “erratic”, “surprises”, “patchy”, and “thrown for a loop”. It is clear that the audience of the report is the layperson in the public, but using such terminology obfuscates the scientific message being made. (2) As the first paragraph highlights, there have been changes in winter weather during the past 20-years, a rather short time period to be making proclamations about trends or climate change for that matter. Also, the equivocal nature of the final sentence needs to be translated: global warming “slowly” changes the character of winter… year-to-year variability and different factors are at play = natural climate oscillations and modes of large-scale variability trump the changes associated with global warming during the past 20-years.
Recent odd-ball (sic) weather events.
As WUWT readers know, we’ve seen lots of “odd-ball” weather before in the USA, often far worse than today.
Here are a few of the NWF claims:
The spatial extent of snow cover across the Northern Hemisphere has decreased by approximately 3 to 9 percent since 1978, with especially rapid declines in the western United States
This is highly misleading. As reported earlier on WUWT, December, 2009 had the second greatest December snow cover on record in the Northern Hemisphere. 17 out of the last 21 Decembers have had above average snow cover. October, 2009 had the sixth greatest October snow extent on record in the Northern Hemisphere. Seven out of the last ten Octobers have had above average snow cover. January, 2008 had the third greatest snow extent ever measured in the Northern Hemisphere. Seven out of the last nine January’s have had above average snow cover.
The western United States has actually been seeing record snowfall in recent years, not “rapid declines” as claimed by NWF.
NCDC snow report from the winter of 2007-2008 Numerous ski resorts in the West reported record breaking snowfall this year, as did parts of northern Maine. Caribou, Maine received 197.8 inches (502 cm) of snowfall this winter, shattering the previous record of 181.1 inches (460 cm).
Mt. Crested Butte, Colorado received 418 inches (1061 cm) during the 2007-08 winter, breaking the previous record of 415 inches (1054 cm) from 1979-1980. Even Spokane, Washington was the second-snowiest on record with 89.5 inches (227 cm), four inches (10 cm) short of the previous record from 1949-1950. The map to the right depicts the snowpack levels in many Rocky Mountain basins on May 1, 2008, illustrating a residual near to above average snow cover over much of the Rockies and Cascades in the western U.S. Thirty-two Snowtel locations reported record snow water equivalent records by the end of April.
NCDC snow report from the winter of 2008-2009
Across North America, snow cover for the 2008-09 winter was above average, with the 12th largest extent since satellite records began in 1967.
The winter of 2009-2010 has also started with record December snow cover in the US, and near record snow depth in the southern Rocky Mountains.
5 FEET OF SNOW IN THE PAST 7 DAYS
Midway Base Depth : 112 Inches
Last 7 Days : 56 Inches
YEAR-TO-DATE TOTAL 103″
BASE DEPTH (mid-mountain undisturbed) 60″
NWF Claim:
Stronger hurricanes, heavier rainfall, and rising sea levels: this is what global warming has in store for the U.S. Gulf and Atlantic coasts.
This again is misleading. According to NOAA the number of major hurricane strikes on the US peaked in the 1940s at ten, and have been generally declining ever since. (2001-2010 has had seven so far.) The last Category 5 hurricane to strike the US was Andrew in 1993. The last three years have seen exceptionally quiet hurricane activity in the US.
Sea level has been rising for 20,000 years since the end of the last ice age, when it was 400 feet lower.
http://www.globalwarmingart.com/images/1/1d/Post-Glacial_Sea_Level.png
Blaming sea level rise on CO2 isn’t going to fly. According to NOAA, sea level is rising at about 2.5mm/year along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts of the US. At that low rate, it will take nearly a millennium to rise to the high end of IPCC estimates.
NWF Claim:
Global warming will bring more extreme heat waves. By the 2080s and 2090s, many parts of the country will have more than two months each year with 100-degree weather if global warming emissions are not curbed.
There is zero evidence of this in the temperature record. NCDC data shows essentially no warming in US summer temperatures over the last 80 years. The hottest summer was in the 1930s.
NCDC summer temperatures for the US 1930-2009
NWF claim:
Global warming has caused more heavy rainfall events in the United States over the last few decades along with an increased likelihood of devastating floods
Actually, the ten deadliest floods in US history all took place prior to 1977.
1. Johnstown, PA
May 31, 1889
Death Toll: 2,200
Several days of extremely heavy rainfall, brought about the collapse of the South Fork Dam, which was 14 miles upstream of Johnstown, PA. It was the first major disaster relief effort handled by the new American Red Cross, led by Clara Barton. Support for victims came from all over the United States and 18 foreign countries. It remains one of the greatest disasters in U.S. history.
The Johnstown Flood also became a social cause celebre, because the dam that collapsed had been built to create a lake for vacationing millionaires, such as Andrew Carnegie and Andrew Mellon, while the inhabitants of the town were Welsh and German immigrants.
2. Mississippi Valley
January and February 1937
Death Toll: 1,100
Heavy rains flooded 12,700 square miles, destroying 75,000 homes, and leaving 600,000 refugees.
3. Ohio River
March, 1913
Death Toll: 700
Heavy rains brought severe flooding. The disaster led to the nation’s first flood control board and programs.
4. Santa Paula, CA
March 12, 1928
Death Toll: 450
Collapse of the St. Francis Dam
5. Rapid City, SD
June 9 – 10, 1972
Death Toll: 237
Flash flood
6. Kansas City, Missouri
May 16 – June 1, 1903
Death Toll: 200
Heavy rains brought flooding that raised the level of the Missouri River 35 feet.
7. Mississippi Valley
April – May 1912
Death Toll: 200
The Mississippi River overflows its banks.
8. Willow Creek, OR
1903
Death Toll: 200
Flash flood sweeps away a third of the town.
9. Man, WV
Feb. 26, 1972
Death Toll: 118
Slag pile dam collapses under torrential rains.
10. Loveland, CO
August 1, 1976
Death Toll: 139
Flash flood in Big Thompson Canyon
NWF claim:
Large parts of the western United States and much of the Southeast has already begun experiencing more frequent and more severe droughts
According to USDA, none of the southeast and very little of the west is experiencing a severe drought. No doubt there is unsustainable water usage in the west, but this has little to do with climate. The 1930s saw the worst droughts in US history. Likewise, the Anasazi were driven out of their home by drought in the thirteenth century, but it is unlikely this was due to people driving Hummers in Chaco Canyon. Drought cycles happen in the west, and they always have.
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html
In summary, it appears that NWF, like WWF, is spreading a large amount of global warming misinformation, and some news outlets like Washington Post and MSNBC seem to accept it without question.
h/t Thanks to Steve Goddard for rounding up rubuttal graphics
National Wildlife Federation Misinformation Campaign
The National Wildlife Federation has issued a new report “Odd-ball Winter Weather: Global Warming’sWake-Up Call for the Northern United States” containing an exceptional amount of misinformation.
Here are a few of their claims:
The spatial extent of snow cover
across the Northern Hemisphere has
decreased by approximately 3 to 9
percent since 1978, with especially
rapid declines in the western United
States
This is highly misleading. As reported on WUWT – December, 2009 had the second greatest December snow cover on record in the Northern Hemisphere. 17 out of the last 21 Decembers have had above average snow cover. October, 2009 had the sixth greatest October snow extent on record in the Northern Hemisphere. Seven out of the last ten Octobers have had above average snow cover. January, 2008 had the third greatest snow extent ever measured in the Northern Hemisphere. Seven out of the last nine January’s have had above average snow cover.
The western United States has actually been seeing record snowfall in recent years, not “rapid declines” as claimed by NWF.
NCDC snow report from the winter of 2007-2008 Numerous ski resorts in the West reported record breaking snowfall this year, as did parts of northern Maine. Caribou, Maine received 197.8 inches (502 cm) of snowfall this winter, shattering the previous record of 181.1 inches (460 cm).
Mt. Crested Butte, Colorado received 418 inches (1061 cm) during the 2007-08 winter, breaking the previous record of 415 inches (1054 cm) from 1979-1980. Even Spokane, Washington was the second-snowiest on record with 89.5 inches (227 cm), four inches (10 cm) short of the previous record from 1949-1950. The map to the right depicts the snowpack levels in many Rocky Mountain basins on May 1, 2008, illustrating a residual near to above average snow cover over much of the Rockies and Cascades in the western U.S. Thirty-two Snowtel locations reported record snow water equivalent records by the end of April.
NCDC snow report from the winter of 2008-2009
Across North America, snow cover for the 2008-09 winter was above average, with the 12th largest extent since satellite records began in 1967.
The winter of 2009-2010 has also started with record December snow cover in the US, and near record snow depth in the southern Rocky Mountains.
5 FEET OF SNOW IN THE PAST 7 DAYS
Midway Base Depth : 112 Inches
Last 7 Days : 56 Inches
YEAR-TO-DATE TOTAL 103″
BASE DEPTH (mid-mountain undisturbed) 60″
NWF Claim:
Stronger hurricanes, heavier rainfall,
and rising sea levels: this is what global
warming has in store for the U.S. Gulf
and Atlantic coasts.
This again is misleading. According to NOAA the number of major hurricane strikes on the US peaked in the 1940s at ten, and have been generally declining ever since. (2001-2010 has had seven so far.) The last Category 5 hurricane to strike the US was Andrew in 1993. The last three years have seen exceptionally quiet hurricane activity in the US.
Sea level has been rising for 20,000 years since the end of the last ice age, when it was 400 feet lower.
http://www.globalwarmingart.com/images/1/1d/Post-Glacial_Sea_Level.png
Blaming sea level rise on CO2 isn’t going to fly. According to NOAA, sea level is rising at about 2.5mm/year along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts of the US. At that low rate, it will take nearly a millennium to rise to the high end of IPCC estimates.
NWF Claim:
Global warming will bring more extreme
heat waves. By the 2080s and 2090s,
many parts of the country will have
more than two months each year with
100-degree weather if global warming
emissions are not curbed.
There is zero evidence of this in the temperature record. NCDC data shows essentially no warming in US summer temperatures over the last 80 years. The hottest summer was in the 1930s.
NCDC summer temperatures for the US 1930-2009
NWF claim:
Global warming has caused more
heavy rainfall events in the United
States over the last few decades along
with an increased likelihood of
devastating floods
Actually, the ten deadliest floods in US history all took place prior to 1977.
1. Johnstown, PA
May 31, 1889
Death Toll: 2,200
Several days of extremely heavy rainfall, brought about the collapse of the South Fork Dam, which was 14 miles upstream of Johnstown, PA. It was the first major disaster relief effort handled by the new American Red Cross, led by Clara Barton. Support for victims came from all over the United States and 18 foreign countries. It remains one of the greatest disasters in U.S. history.
The Johnstown Flood also became a social cause celebre, because the dam that collapsed had been built to create a lake for vacationing millionaires, such as Andrew Carnegie and Andrew Mellon, while the inhabitants of the town were Welsh and German immigrants.
2. Mississippi Valley
January and February 1937
Death Toll: 1,100
Heavy rains flooded 12,700 square miles, destroying 75,000 homes, and leaving 600,000 refugees.
3. Ohio River
March, 1913
Death Toll: 700
Heavy rains brought severe flooding. The disaster led to the nation’s first flood control board and programs.
4. Santa Paula, CA
March 12, 1928
Death Toll: 450
Collapse of the St. Francis Dam
5. Rapid City, SD
June 9 – 10, 1972
Death Toll: 237
Flash flood
6. Kansas City, Missouri
May 16 – June 1, 1903
Death Toll: 200
Heavy rains brought flooding that raised the level of the Missouri River 35 feet.
7. Mississippi Valley
April – May 1912
Death Toll: 200
The Mississippi River overflows its banks.
8. Willow Creek, OR
1903
Death Toll: 200
Flash flood sweeps away a third of the town.
9. Man, WV
Feb. 26, 1972
Death Toll: 118
Slag pile dam collapses under torrential rains.
10. Loveland, CO
August 1, 1976
Death Toll: 139
Flash flood in Big Thompson Canyon
NWF claim:
Large parts of the western United
States and much of the Southeast has
already begun experiencing more
frequent and more severe droughts
According to USDA, none of the southeast and very little of the west is experiencing a severe drought. No doubt there is unsustainable water usage in the west, but this has little to do with climate. The 1930s saw the worst droughts in US history. Likewise, the Anasazi were driven out of their home by drought in the thirteenth century, but it is unlikely this was due to people driving Hummers in Chaco Canyon. Drought cycles happen in the west, and they always have.
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html
In summary, it appears that NWF, like WWF, is spreading a large amount of global warming misinformation.
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This sort of alarmism and these sorts of outrageous claims fly in the face of common sense and are a direct contributor to the decline in public acceptance of global warming.
Hope someone posts a reply to the Washington Post that summarizes this info and provides a link to this site for their readers to review.
Plus, didn’t we just learn that the UN IPCC claims of weather extremes were brought into question as unsubstantiated or wrong?
Good report!
I wonder what statistical program they bought that has “…’seemingly peculiar’ …’odd-ball’, ‘erratic’, ‘surprises’, ‘patchy’, and ‘thrown for a loop'” measures in the statistical analysis pull-down? In my Ivory Tower days I used Statview SE. I don’t remember those particular measures being among the choices. Anyone have the calculations?
“some news outlets like Washington Post and MSNBC seem to accept it with question.”
Should that read: “some news outlets like Washington Post and MSNBC seem to accept it with[OUT] question”?
I read this WaPo article just moments ago. I was stunned at the idiocy. More snow in the Great Lakes region because the Lakes didn’t freeze over and more water evaporated from the Lakes? Are you kidding me? I grew up on Lake Michigan. It NEVER freezes over. AGW only works in one direction (theoretically) – it WARMS. There is nothing in the theory to suggest it can trigger cold weather by magically upsetting Gaia.
Here in the great State of Washington we are having weather just like the doctors ordered. What doctors, you ask?
The one’s that established the characteristics of El Nino weather-related events. Yes, it seems a bit mild and drier than normal. It fits the pattern perfectly and the pattern is not new nor does it have anything to do with a disruption of “long-standing patterns.” It is, in fact, a long-standing pattern.
I wonder how many science classes Juliet Eilperin and David A. Fahrenthold, the Washington Post Staff Writers, have on their school transcripts? Maybe they should go back to writing about school board elections and lawn-n-garden shows.
Ryan
Can you update the hurricane landfall records for 2005-2009. Otherwise it looks like you missed the hurricane fun year of 2006 when Katrina and Rita struck.
The NWF report comes “at a time when, despite a wealth of scientific evidence, the American public is increasingly skeptical that climate change is happening at all.”
OR
The NWF report comes “at a time when a lack of scientific evidence has the American public increasingly skeptical that climate change is happening at all.”
What is significant is that there has not been MORE of this sort of thing this (northern) winter. They just cant pull it off any more. Since Copenhagen there has been less stridence and lots of silence – more evidence that the tide has turned.
Typo patrol. Last paragraph says “…seem to accept it with question.” I think you mean “without question.” And last line should be “rebuttal graphics” vice “rubuttal.”
The history is unequivocal, we have had weather in the past even more extreme than today. The fact that we seem to forget history is what lets these outrageous claims stand.
Ben
This is huge I personally would not agree with seeing Prof Jones in jail
http://www.climategate.com/climategate-professor-phil-jones-could-face-ten-years-on-fraud-charges
You see ICO is not really in charge…
British Fraud Act 2006
If true, should be prosecuted along with ALL the others but no jail term for anyone involved, in what is, after all, a scientific debate gone over the top and people being pressured to tow the line from the top.
Excuse my ignorance….but how could a cold snowy winter be a disruption of ‘normal’ climate patterns? It seems pretty routine to me. Am I missing something here? Is this more nuanced recalibration of reality from the elite Wizards of Smart to advance their phony agenda….aka….prol-feed? Like subtle the difference between ‘weather’ and ‘climate’?
John A,
The paragraph above the hurricane table reads:
(2001-2010 has had seven so far.)
This is progress. The Washington Post feeds MSNBC content, so really only one major outlet picked up the Press Release issued by the NWF. It is likely that with the failure of Copenhagen and the self-inflicted implosion of IPCC credibility that major newspapers are actually hesitant to publish or regurgitate a press release with the title “odd-ball winter weather caused by global warming”.
Also, with the State of the Union address in which Obama mentioned cap and trade, this publication by the Washington Post seems planned and likely a planted story for political reasons.
Thank you and great job uncovering the muck that surrounds the “science.”
It is hard to believe that idiots and fools continue to spout out this WWF bunk….but, you know, it is hard to believe anything these days.
One thing good is that the truth will win out and this site is helping in the process!!!
CHRIS
Norfolk, VA, USA
Well at least it’s clear now: “climate change” = “global warming” as it always has, which is why winters are getting colder and recent summers have been cooler. Clear as mud.
But yet we have to endure comments such as one on Moonbat’s column today, saying that ALL skeptics are old (self-hating ?) males.
Sorry pal, but older folks know more about recent history, on the time-scale in question, having lived through it. This isn’t a case of the old saying “age and treachery defeats youth and skill”, but it may be case of age and skill ……
I attended a very pro-presentation by IPCC lead author David Randall a couple of years where he was asked if the record cold and snow in China could be explained by global warming.
His answer was “no.”
There’s a joke going around in Mennonite circles:
Q: “How many Mennonites does it take to change a lightbulb?”
A: “CHANGE???!!!”
Mennonites like to poke fun at the caricature of themselves that exists in many people’s minds who think they all drive horses and buggies (actually the Luddite variety is a very small minority).
But it seems the NWF, WWF, IPCC etc. crowd are the ones who ought to have this joke told about them, because anything that reeks of (climate) “change” appears to be (literally) the end of the world in their minds. I’ve lived on this earth a mere 50 years, in many climate zones, but the one constant is that people continually apologize for the unusual weather. “In most years it’s not like this — this year is an exception”.
I’ve come to expect “exceptional weather” as the norm. It has been the case wherever I live, to the point that I think people construct a false image of what “normal” is in their region — probably based on some year or two in their youth in which some definitive event took place in their lives, and forever shaped their expectations for years to come. But the perception is simply false — there has ALWAYS been unusual weather. The only thing I find striking about this NWFS graphic is how FEW extreme weather events they identify during a 7-year period. Big deal — any 7 years in recorded history should produce about the same number.
ryanm: “Also, with the State of the Union address in which Obama mentioned cap and trade, this publication by the Washington Post seems planned and likely a planted story for political reasons.”
Very prescient observations. Right you are, man. Thank you.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Pamela Gray (21:25:51) : “I wonder what statistical program they bought that has “…’seemingly peculiar’ …’odd-ball’, ‘erratic’, ’surprises’, ‘patchy’, and ‘thrown for a loop’” measures in the statistical analysis pull-down?”
Well, “patchy” obviously refers to Rajendra Pachauri, and is a synonym for those other words.
D. Patterson (21:28:33) : ” ‘some news outlets like Washington Post and MSNBC seem to accept it with question.’
“Should that read: ‘some news outlets like Washington Post and MSNBC seem to accept it with[OUT] question’?”
Halfway there, DP. It should read “Some propaganda outlets like Washington Post and MSNBC seem to eat it up without question.”
Remember the one about Antarctic ice increasing relentlessly because of a closed wind-system, caused by…yep, AGW.
Later, when one portion of the Antarctic did some melting…no more closed wind-system!
Meanwhile, since the hockeystick lost its straight handle, some of the believers are now touting overpopulation in the Middle Ages as the cause of global warming as the cause of shutting down the gulfstream as the cause of global cooling as the cause of Black Death as the cause of reforestation as the cause of more cooling…
Don’t even try with these guys.
Global Oddball Disruptive Climate Change.
These claims certainly do have an odd way of flip-flopping about.
Highly disruptive to the consistency of thier message, which is now driven by an unbroken string of forecasting bellyflops and gross exaggerations neatly exposed.
That’s a lot of egg on those faces.
Nope, no luck. Wolfram doesn’t give those options for statistical analyses either. Haven’t seen them in Origin 8, SAS or SPSS either.
The US drought monitor graphic clearly shows the recovery we have experienced in the S.E. United States. We have suffered though quite a drought in Upstate South Carolina and surrounding areas, but it happens from time to time. When I first moved to this region in the early 1980’s there was a similar event. Lake Hartwell showed the same red clay ring seen for the last few years. They can’t hardly let enough water through the dam these days. This is a 900+ shore mile lake.
The US drought monitor graphic clearly shows the recovery we have experienced in the S.E. United States. We have suffered through quite a drought in Upstate South Carolina and surrounding areas, but it happens from time to time. When I first moved to this region in the early 1980’s there was a similar event. Lake Hartwell showed the same red clay ring seen for the last few years. They can’t hardly let enough water through the dam these days. This is a 900+ shore mile lake.