While the press is hyperventilating over NASA GISS recent announcement of the “Hottest Decade Ever“, it pays to keep in mind what happened the last two years of the past decade.
According to NCDC, 2009 temperatures in the US (53.13F) were the 33rd warmest and very close to the long term mean of 52.86F.
Generated from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/na.html
Since 1998, according to NCDC’s own figures, temperatures in the US have been dropping at a rate of more than 10 degrees F per century.
Generated from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/na.html
For 2009, all regions of the US were normal or below normal except for the southwest and Florida.
Temperatures in Alaska were also slightly below the long term mean. Three of the last four years have seen below normal temperatures in Alaska.
A few fond memories from 2009 :
Americans suffer record cold as temperatures plunge to -40 16th January 2009
Jul 28, 2009 Chicago Sees Coldest July In 67 Years
Aug 31, 2009 August Ends With Near-Record Cold
Oct 14, 2009 October Cold Snap Sets 82-Year Record
And my personal favorite:
From: Kevin Trenberth <trenbert@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: Michael Mann <mann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Subject: Re: BBC U-turn on climate
Date: Mon, 12 Oct 2009 08:57:37 -0600
Cc: Stephen H Schneider <shs@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Myles Allen <allen@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, peter stott <peter.stott@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, “Philip D. Jones” <p.jones@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Benjamin Santer <santer1@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Tom Wigley <wigley@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Thomas R Karl <Thomas.R.Karl@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Gavin Schmidt <gschmidt@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, James Hansen <jhansen@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Michael Oppenheimer <omichael@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Hi all
Well I have my own article on where the heck is global warming? We are asking that here in
Boulder where we have broken records the past two days for the coldest days on record. We
had 4 inches of snow. The high the last 2 days was below 30F and the normal is 69F, and it
smashed the previous records for these days by 10F. The low was about 18F and also a
record low, well below the previous record low. This is January weather (see the Rockies
baseball playoff game was canceled on saturday and then played last night in below freezing
weather).
Trenberth, K. E., 2009: An imperative for climate change planning: tracking Earth’s global
energy. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 1, 19-27,
doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2009.06.001. [1][PDF] (A PDF of the published version can be obtained
from the author.)
The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a
travesty that we can’t. The CERES data published in the August BAMS 09 supplement on 2008
shows there should be even
h/t to Steve Goddard
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RE: Steve Goddard (05:59:17) :
Please show the statistics to support your claim that we are in a “serious cooling trend over the last decade.”
Deech,
That is exactly what this article is about. Winters and summers are much cooler in the US now than they were ten years ago. We have seen near record snow for the past few years. Last summer was the coolest in a century for much of the country. Similar story for Europe, and Mexico, and Alaska and parts of South America and Siberia.
RE Steve Goddard (16:44:18) :
And where’s the statistical analysis to support your claims?
January, 2008 – second greatest snow extent on record in the Northern Hemisphere
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_anom.php?ui_set=1&ui_region=nhland&ui_month=1
December, 2009 – second greatest December snow extent on record in the Northern Hemisphere.
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_anom.php?ui_set=1&ui_region=nhland&ui_month=12
“Skiers frolic east and west after record snowfall”
http://abcnews.go.com/Travel/story?id=4118600&page=1
“SNOWMASS — It’s official — last month was the snowiest December ever at Snowmass Ski Area.”
http://www.aspentimes.com/article/20080101/NEWS/795566992/0/FRONTPAGE
“”East of the Mississippi, we’re seeing [snow] levels at or above record levels,”
http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1883102,00.html
“Telluride has already had two months of record snow. ”
http://www.gazette.com/articles/saturday-32705-feeding-wildlife.html
““Best winter ever,” declared Jeff Tippett, a longtime local skier who has hit Aspen Mountain nearly every day this season. If this keeps up, winter 2007-08 could erase 1983-84 as the standard by which all powder performances are measured, he said.”
http://www.summitdaily.com/article/20080131/NEWS/881195477
“Business booms at Scottish ski resorts after best snow conditions for more than a decade”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2010/jan/08/record-numbers-scotland-skiers-slopes
“Britain paralysed by snow and freezing weather” 2010
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/6935965/Britain-paralysed-by-snow-and-freezing-weather.html
“Record-breaking snow paralyzes London” 2009
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-02/02/content_10752324.htm
“Europe shivers at record low temperatures ” 2009
http://globalfreeze.wordpress.com/2009/01/10/europe-shivers-at-record-low-temperatures/
“Record cold grips Europe, North America and Asia”
http://www.iceagenow.com/Record_cold_grips_Europe_North_America_and_Asia.htm
“(Jan. 8) — Europe struggled with Arctic-like weather today, with forecasts predicting worse to come. In Britain, which has been hit by its harshest winter in decades, the coldest day of the season so far was recorded, with temperatures plunging to minus 8.1 degrees Fahrenheit in a Scottish village”
http://www.aolnews.com/world/article/record-cold-heavy-snow-and-europe-is-bracing-for-more/19308849
“Folks in Britain haven’t seen weather this cold in decades. ”
http://www.freakyweather.com/content/record-cold-weather-hits-europe
“Record cold in Alaska”
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/3855
“A record 77 manatees have died statewide from cold stress through Jan. 23. The previous record of 56 was set last year. The cold has killed eight manatees in Lee Count”
http://www.news-press.com/article/20100127/GREEN/1270389/1007/NEWS0105/Manatee-deaths-from-cold-a-record
“BUCHAREST — A deep freeze gripping Europe claimed more lives Tuesday as record low temperatures combined with snow and ice to disrupt travel, close schools and trigger emergency measures.”
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gjxzjNo55PF4DSbHlsEDArhI0B4A
“The death toll from freezing temperatures and record snowfalls in northwestern China has risen to 20 people from six in the past week, state media reported on Wednesday”
http://www.etaiwannews.com/etn/news_content.php?id=1166179&lang=eng_news
“In neighbouring Bulgaria, rescue services battled through snow drifts to supply villages cut off by blizzards which also forced the closure of major highways. Schools and other public buildings were closed as about 20 towns recorded their coldest daytime temperatures on record.”
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2010/0127/1224263206165.html
RE Steve Goddard (18:05:39) :
Steve, you are posting a collection of anecdotes, but what I am asking is for a statistical analysis that supports your claims. “It’s cold right now somewhere.” doesn’t cut it.
Deech,
News stories are not anecdotes. They are reporting on the real world. The Rutgers University Snow Lab statistics I quoted above are not anecdotes. The NCDC data for the last twelve years in the article are not anecdotes.
You are in deep, deep denial about what is going on in the real world.
I never ceased to be amazed by the alarmists who live inside Hansen’s press releases, and fail to see what is going on outside their window..
@Kevin Kilty:
Duh!
You are the first person I’ve seen who has said this. It is so obvious, why is it that scientists – supposedly the wisest of us and with the best foresight – all the scientists studying climate and meteorology, never thought of this?
It is the most obvious thing in climatology, that if you move a thermometer, knowing it will give different readings, that you need to quantify what those differences are. Not doing so leaves it up to later researchers to derive an adjustment factor, which may or may not be correct. Getting a year’s worth of overlapping data solves the problem, gives everyone an adjustment value that cannot be questioned and cannot be fudged.
This is OT, but…
Geez! I don’t know about those maps they use, which throw doubt on their entire database. Why do I say this?
Look just south of Poland, SE of Germany. There is a country there outlined like a peanut in its shell. That country is none other than Czechoslovakia. Now what is it about Czechoslovakia that suggests map is bogus?
Czechoslovakia no longer exists.
It stopped being on any real maps on January 1, 1993, when Slovakia was allowed to split off, making two countries – Slovakia and the Czech Republic. Neither of those is shown on the map, though they’ve been nations now for over 17 years.
Hey, I am just saying, if these scientists are posting a weather forecasting map in the year 2010, the least they could do is get their freaking basic geography right.
I am not even going to mention the former Soviet states.
It is obvious they are using a map that is at least 20 years old. Holy crap, Batman!
But. . . Germany is united. WTF?…lol
Geographically challenged meteorologists. It makes you wonder if they have the weather patterns overlain on the right continent.
That is weird. The image files didn’t show up.
feet2thefire (23:43:36) :
Why OT? Great post.
Clever alias! I got the picture!
feet,
Interesting post from a historical point of view, but geographic boundaries don’t have any effect on the weather. Those maps are from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, which generally do an excellent job on their two week forecasts.
http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html
Europe is in for some spectacularly cold weather the next two weeks.
@Steve Goddard –
I mostly posted that tongue-in-cheek. But it seemed odd that scientists would use outmoded maps.
And I THINK I knew that national boundaries don’t stop weather from invading or escaping. That is especially pertinent in this thread, with some of the commenters pointing out that US weather is not global weather. US boundaries do not have any effect on the weather, either. (Which I now know you know…)
Be cool!
That remains to be seen. The thread by Romm you linked to quotes Lal’s denial. But that doesn’t refute Rose’s claim. Your assuming that it does reveals your bias. The rational course is to wait for Rose’s rebuttal. He may have Lal on tape. (I suspect his editors wouldn’t have let him print such a story unless he had Lal “on the record” in this way.)
The truth of Dr. Latif’s claim, like Lal’s, remains to be seen. Bigshots often claim they’ve been misquoted, or quoted out of context, when they’ve “dropped a brick.” Andy Revkin at Dot Earth has just posted a comment that he has contacted the Daily Mail to try to get to the bottom of this controversy. I hope we’ll hear something from him soon.
Not necessarily. He may just be a sloppy sensationalist, which isn’t unheard of in the field of journalism. (BTW, congratulations for not saying, as I’ve seen it put on other sites, that his bias is “palatable.”)
Incidentally, here’s the latest on Kaser’s warning to the IPCC. It looks as though the IPCC’s staff (i.e., its “technical support unit”) DID (as I claimed in another thread) receive his e-mail and ignore it.
My comment:
Dr. van Ypersele makes it sound as though the fault was Dr. Kaser’s for not approaching the lead authors directly, and implies that the “technical support unit” therefore bore no blame for not passing along his message.
But WERE they blameless? Weren’t they supposed to perform a “mailroom” function as part of their job? You’d think so, on the face of it. If so, shouldn’t they have sent Kaser a pro forma response that his feedback had been noted and would be passed along to the appropriate persons? And, if they made that pledge, then why didn’t they fulfill it?
Or, if they thought that forwarding e-mails to the appropriate destination wasn’t part of their job description, why didn’t they tell Kaser the names and e-mail addresses of the persons whom he should have contacted?
Finally, if they didn’t give Kaser any response at all, why not? Did they know or suspect that their superiors didn’t want to hear reasons to tone down AR4’s alarmism?
Incidentally, here’s one reader response on Dot Earth to this item: