Earlier I wrote about the Arctic Oscillation Index going strongly negative in December and what new cold to expect in January. From NASA’s Earth observatory, we have a high resolution temperature anomaly map that provides visualization of the effects. This image was taken while the Copenhagen Climate Conference was in progress.
A wave of frigid air spilled down over Europe and Russia from the Arctic in mid-December, creating a deadly cold snap. According to BBC.com, at least 90 people had died in Europe, including 79 people, mostly homeless, in Poland. In places, the bitter cold was accompanied by heavy snow, which halted rail and air traffic for several days during the week of Christmas.
This image shows the impact of the cold snap on land surface temperatures across the region from December 11–18, 2009, compared to the 2000–2008 average. The measurements were made by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite. Places where temperatures were up to 20 degrees Celsius below average are blue, locations where temperatures were average are cream-colored, and places where temperatures were above average are red. Light gray patches show where clouds were so persistent during the week that MODIS could not make measurements of the land surface temperature. The biggest anomalies were in northern Russia, but a swath of below-average temperatures stretched across the countries around the Baltic Sea as well.
See also:
- Daily, 8-day, and monthly land surface temperature anomaly maps
- Animation of monthly global land surface temperature anomalies
h/t to WUWT reader “JT”
It is important to compare and record the predictions (based on ‘value-added’ data by the Met Office and the other usual suspects) for the season we can expect (‘hottest winter evah1’) with what is going on in real terms.
However, while looking at global features we must not forget that these are of necessity coarse-grained. Local events are finer grained – and these are what people experience and record.
Take Europe – its not such a surprise that some countries and regions are warmer than others. They always have been, due to geophysical features. Thus something like the Alps or the Mediterranean sea do have influences on regional temperatures. After all, before WWI the rich Brits used to decamp to the Riviera, to escape the British weather and indulge in warmer temperatures.
I think it is a mistake not to keep in mind that local conditions can make for quite large variations in temperature, even within a small region: mountains, hills, aspect, closeness of large bodies of water – they all make a nonsense of the blanket predictions provided by the Met Office and such.
As I keep saying – looking at computer graphs and models is one thing, and very useful it is too, provided the input data are right. Getting out a bit into Nature and experiencing what weather is all about, on an individual level, should most definitely be a requirement for all climate scientists.
Przemysław Pawełczyk (05:49:33)
Tell me Mr Watts why the dramatic title – “… deadly…” (cold in Europe and Russia).
Quite simple really, follow the title link to NASA just above the image:
“Deadly Cold Across Europe and Russia”
which goes here:
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=42067
…and you can read that very title at NASA, along with their mention of 90 dead, including 79 homeless. You might want to check things out a bit before expressing misplaced indignation at my use of NASA press releases.
Not all people are homeless by choice, and I know this because I was very nearly homeless myself once. I had lost a job, and was down to less than 10 dollars in my bank account. My rent was due. Had I not launched a frantic campaign to sell many of my belongings, I would have been homeless. Thankfully my luck changed the next month.
Some people don’t have the internal resources to overcome such adversity, or personal demons like alcoholism. Some are terrified of being indoors.
Here in my town of Chico, CA three years ago we had a man who died of hyperthermia on the front lawn of our local church. It was tragic, nobody understood this, until it was revealed that he had lost his home in a fire, and he himself had been badly burned. Like some earthquake survivors, he could not bring himself to stay indoors anymore though he had the means via insurance settlement and a bank account.
Not everyone who is homeless wants to be that way, but their demons dictate their behavior. But I agree, a few people who want to live unfettered are that way by choice.
– Anthony
That is a bit simplistic…
Since your childhood I do believe that a lot of new crop varieties have been developed producing better yield, farming equipment have improved, irrigation system have improved, target fertilisation schemes has been developed etc. etc.
I can go on, this is what I do at the university…and to add insult to injury, greenhouse growers deliberately add CO2 to their greenhouses to enhance/increase yield.
And the odd thing is, despite adding CO2 to the greenhouse atmosphere it does not get warmer, that would have been a neat trick to save energy.
A fun story to wrap up 2009. From Salt Lake City…
Snowstorm squelches climate change protest
A downtown protest of the climate change talks in Copenhagen became a victim of Wednesday’s snowstorm.
“Not many people showed up because of the blizzard conditions,” said organizer Clea Major, an international studies student at the University of Utah.
It didn’t take long for the six friends to pack up a bullhorn and posters they’d planned to use for their “scream-in,” an outlet for their frustration about the failure of the Copenhagen climate talks earlier this month to curb the pollution blamed for climate change…
She called Wednesday evening’s effort a success…
[source]
“AdderW (08:33:55) :
[…]
Since your childhood I do believe that a lot of new crop varieties have been developed producing better yield, farming equipment have improved, irrigation system have improved, target fertilisation schemes has been developed etc. etc. ”
Exactly. Yields grow slightly more than 1 % per year. Lomborg explains it in his book “The sceptical environmentalist” this way: You can increase the yield by using new varieties that direct more of their energy toward growing fruit than towards the stem. Which, incidentally, makes them more prone to fall over.
Przemysław Pawełczyk :
Thank you for supporting me. Finally there is someone that try to stop the “Coolinista” nonsense.
FOR ALL, globally warm anomalies for December far outweight the cool ones. Specially in the Southern Hemisphere Oceans, thanks to the El Niño, and obviously, in the Artic Basin.
But I don’t agree on your opinion about the poor people that have died in the streets under the cold snap. These are unemployed people, homeless. Please show respect for your poor brothers.
If they are how they are, it’s not their fault, but the fault of the Economic System that left them behind, unemployed and without any Health Care System that save them.
And don’t forget that there is a INFLUENZA PANDEMIC underway, and with the cold, it spreads like fire (The 2009A/H1N1 Virus, unlike Seasonal Influenza, can cause a fulminant viral pneumonia. If not treated within 24 hours, it will destroy the lung tissue and you will die).
Someone asked where the Arctic heat comes from: it comes FROM THE ARCTIC OCEAN, that is releasing the heat accumulated during the Artic Summer. With the now THIN ICE, this heat in the waters is no longer isolated from the Atmosphere above. This is ARCTIC AMPLIFICATION.
For anyone interested, google the paper “The emergence of ocean-based Artic Amplification”. It is a recent paper.
And this phenomenom, that is at the root of the RECORD WARM ANOMALIES IN RECENT FALL AND WINTER (ARCTIC) SEASONS, began an intensified during the years of the so-called “Global Cooling”.
What Global Cooling ?!
It is just the La Niña cooling of 2007-2008. It affected the areas where ENSO is dominant.
I don’t know where to post this comment, but here it is.
Why not use the space station to perform atmospheric research by using the direct Sun’s energy on various atmospheric densities and compositions?
One could easily alter CO2 “without the atmosphere” getting in the way, and expose to “unaltered Solar energy”.
Couldn’t one also create a simulated magnetic field to test the Cosmic Ray input to cloud formation, etc????
Gee, a cloud chamber in space!!!
—–
May I also add that when people die because of the cold it is deadly, quite literally, even if NASA had not mentioned it. I believe over 70 people died in Poland at the start of this “mild cold” as you say. Try telling their families that the cold has not been deadly.
Last winter between December to March 2008/09 there were an estimated 36,700 more deaths in England and Wales. Is this deadly cold or not? At times like this you will often hear on the UK news individuals dying from hypothermia just returning from the bar or having a car breakdown and attempting escape on foot. That’s deadly my friend. I may be wrong but I believe that heatwaves can also kill but fewer people in the UK – man is a tropical animal remember.
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=574
Cold is deadly to those that it kills each and every year in Europe and Russia.
Lucy Skywalker (02:01:05) :
A few things Lucy.
1. You should probably do your own estimate for the temperature around Yamal. a distance weighted average would probably be ok.
2. You really do have to look at the season, because the reconstruction only claims a seasonal recon. Some recons do annual recons other do seasonal
Anthony has already addressed the “why” for this specific post, now I’ll try to enlighten you the “why” pertaining to the use of exaggerated modifiers in American and Western vocabulary.
It’s all about creating headlines that grab attention. Reality needn’t play a role at all and sometimes the use of words like “deadly” can be rather comical as in: “a deadly airstrike.” As most airstrikes are intended to kill and smash things, adding “deadly” to the discussion of the airstrike is superfluous, but makes for dramatic presentation. When delivered by the talking heads on television, who add vocal and visual emphasis to the word “deadly,” you get even more drama.
The Western media has taken to referring to any event that costs any life as “deadly.” As few as one life is enough for an event to earn “deadly” status. Now even government agencies do it to get attention.
Think about it.
“Cold Across Europe and Russia.” Hmm…so what? It’s winter.
“Deadly Cold Across Europe and Russia.” Now I think I’ll read more.
It’s something great chefs learned long ago…it’s all in the presentation.
“and even art and literature*.”
“*O roving Muse, recall that wonderous year,
When winter reigned in bleak Britannia’s air;”.
“the hardened waters”.
“that brought dire consequences to its peoples.”.
…-
“The Little Ice Age in Europe
Western Europe experienced a general cooling of the climate between the years 1150 and 1460 and a very cold climate between 1560 and 1850 that brought dire consequences to its peoples. The colder weather impacted agriculture, health, economics, social strife, emigration, and even art and literature. Increased glaciation and storms also had a devastating affect on those that lived near glaciers and the sea.”
http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/lia/little_ice_age.html
“*THE GREAT FROST – John Gay (1716)
from Trivia: Or, the Art of Walking the Streets of London
O roving Muse, recall that wonderous year,
When winter reigned in bleak Britannia’s air;
When hoary Thames, with frosted osiers crowned,
Was three long moons in icy fetters bound.
The waterman, forlorn along the shore,
Pensive reclines upon his useless oar,
Sees harnessed steeds desert the stony town,
And wander roads unstable, not their own;
Wheels o’er the hardened waters smoothly glide,
And rase with whitenened tracks the slippery tide.
Here the fat cook piles high the blazing fire,
And scarce the spit can turn the steer entire.
Booths sudden hide the Thames, long streets appear,
And numerous games proclaim the crowded fair.”
http://londonrelocationservices.com/blog/
Dying from hypothermia doesn’t just depend on the air temperature. There are numerous factors: how well clothed are you, how well insulated is your house, have you gone into water. I’ll end the list here as there are to many to list.
So for example an elderly person living in Finland might live in a double glazed house with adequate heating, food and clothing is less likely to die from cold compared to an elderly person living rough in the streets or in low quality housing and fails to pay their heating bills. -1C can kill!
rbateman wrote: “Since Cyrosphere Today’s compare is back up, thought it would be appropriate to check on the Sea Ice and Snow Cover:
http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/New%20Image.GIF
Compared to last year.”
The extent looks to be almost the same but judging from the colour there is a lot more thick ice. Interesting to note the much greater snow cover on land, i.e. without the patchiness of 2008. This probably also indicates thicker snow cover.
rbateman (18:49:08) :
commonsense (18:04:01) :
This
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
says that the anomaly is all wrong.
Why does it? The arctic plot and the anomaly map look quite consistent to me. It’s true the Arctic temperatures have dropped in the last few days but temperatures in the last 7 days have been above average.
Hey, big OT question:
Who is looking at deciduous tree lines in the arctic? Are severe cold events like this enough to push back the tree line? It would be an interesting experiment to see how many are killed & if the tree line even corresponds to average winter temperature.
It is not just Europe and America that is feeling the cold. Cold deaths on Bangladesh!
http://www.nst.com.my/Current_News/NST/ … index_html
As always the poor suffer the most.
Cold in Pakistan:
http://www.soschildrensvillages.org.uk/charity-news/homeless-women-and-children-suffer-in-pakistan-freeze
Cold in India:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34642958/ns/weather/
Cold in China:
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Internation … 261862010/
However many die of cold in Europe and America you should multiply several times over to all for the rest of the Northern Hemisphere.
Vincent (06:41:27) :
I live in the midlands, and the temperature has not climbed above 3C. Yet in the anomaly map in commonsense’s link, the whole of the British Isles is shown orange, representing an anomaly of about +5C. Since the average for this time of year is 4C, the map is representing 9C, which is utter nonsense.
I too live in the Midlands but I can’t see what map you are referring to.
Anthony Watts
“Not all people are homeless by choice, and I know this because I was very nearly homeless myself once.” Etc
Thank you for this Mr Watts. Too often the victim is blamed for the situation as an avoidance to the call for action.
Nice catch Smokey. Once I clean the Coffee from the monitor I will be sure to remember it is all just weather.
Seriously though, even if you subscribe fully to the “gas ‘o’ doom™” and it’s many wonderful properties, should you really be drawing attention to Global Warming … in a blizzard … at commuter time … with a bull horn …
Dishevelled individual at train station with a “repent ye sinners – the end is almost nigh” board comes to mind.
Then I read … “said organizer Clea Major, an international studies student at the University of Utah. ”
Now hop over to this thread and re-read some of the comments concerning (in the abstract) “international studies student[s]”. If a billion ton Asteroid were confirmed by NASA to be heading our way right now would you believe the news if it came from Bullhorn Clea?
Jeez, these people need to get some professional help. Probably from the same people that helped Hansen with his congressional testimony way back when.
[REPLY – I recall a cartoon where in the first panel, the prophet of doom is carrying a sign that says “The World Will End Tomorrow”. In the next panel, he is carrying a sign that says “The World Ended Yesterday” ~ Evan]
“commonsense (09:20:14) :
And don’t forget that there is a INFLUENZA PANDEMIC underway, and with the cold, it spreads like fire (The 2009A/H1N1 Virus, unlike Seasonal Influenza, can cause a fulminant viral pneumonia. If not treated within 24 hours, it will destroy the lung tissue and you will die).”
H1N1 turned out to be a very mild influenza. Lots of the school fellows of my kid already had it, stayed at home for a week and came back. The german vaccination campaign so far resulted in millions of doses leftover because few bothered to go.
“commonsense (09:20:14) :
And don’t forget that there is a INFLUENZA PANDEMIC underway, and with the cold, it spreads like fire ”
Wait commonsense – didn’t you just say it’s very WARM outside? Because of the very WARM anomaly? Caughtya! You’re a troll that just jumps on any bandwagon he can find. Happy new year 🙂
There was an implicit context to Anthony’s remarks about “deadly cold” that he did not bother to print because we WUWTers are aware of the writing of Bjorn Lomborg in The Skeptical Environmentalist. Namely, the high number of excessive (but unpublicized) deaths in Europe during cold winters, especially as compared to the highly publicized number of excessive deaths during a Paris heat wave a few years ago.
Whoa, Nellie!
PS: These deaths are not silly freedom-loving drunks freezing out in the open, but a much larger number of poverty-stricken retirees lacking money for enough heat for their homes.
As for whether there is deadly heat or deadly cold, Cap & Trade Holy Water blessings won’t save you.
It won’t matter how many Global Warming chants are recited, or how many demonstrations are attended.
Only preparation will make a difference.
Nobody controls the weather or the climate, though they fancy they might forcibly alter it’s course, with unknown consequences.
So, the answer, it seems, that Climate Changers give to alleged catastrophically anthropogenic warming is to catastrophically force the climate to a new state, the outcome of which is unknown.
You could end up with an Anthropogenic Ice Age.
There are but 2 choices here:
Adapt or Gamble.
This is precisely the overly dramatic vocabulary that Przemysław was pointing out. In the first place “pandemic” simply refers to the fact that the specific virus is spread across multiple regions and has infected a large proportion of the human population. The fact that there is a pandemic doesn’t make it more severe (in terms of mortality), just more widespread.
Second, your phrasing makes it sound like the cold in and of itself is causing the virus to spread faster. If you check the WHO and CDC websites, you will find that new H1N1 cases are actually declining with the onset of winter. Which is not to say that cold is slowing the virus either, but that there are numerous other factors that impact a virus’ spread.
http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_12_30/en/index.html
http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/
Cold indirectly influences a more rapid spread of any virus due to the fact that people tend to stay indoors more and the enclosed indoor heat combined with people sharing space, coughing and sneezing, touching with contaminated hands makes an ideal viral breeding ground. But cold does not make H1N1 “spread like wildfire.”
Third, most people who get H1N1 fully recover. There have been roughly 12,000 confirmed fatalities worldwide due to H1N1. Even if the mortality is understated by 300%, that would still bring the total to only the annual seasonal flu mortality in the US alone.
Kindly cite your source for: “The 2009A/H1N1 Virus, unlike Seasonal Influenza, can cause a fulminant viral pneumonia. If not treated within 24 hours, it will destroy the lung tissue and you will die.” My search of both WHO and CDC found no specific reference to fulminant viral pneumonia as it relates to H1N1. However, I did find references to many other illnesses including other influenza virus strains that can lead to fulminant viral pneumonia. I admit that I may have missed it, so I’d appreciate a reference.
More ON topic, you are overly impressed by “anomalies”. They are simply deviations from an arbitrarily selected reference point, in this case an average of temps over a period of time (much manipulated and tortured).
That doesn’t mean that the average temperature over the selected period is the “right” temperature for the planet. I don’t believe we’ve really ascertained that yet. That’s not even taking into account the gymnastics involved in coming up with a “global average temperature” in the first place.