This is a paleoclimatology finding, with current spin added. I guess they haven’t seen the latest on the NAO and AO.
USGS Press Release: Arctic Could Face Warmer and Ice-Free Conditions
Released: 12/29/2009 6:20:34 AM
There is increased evidence that the Arctic could face seasonally ice-free conditions and much warmer temperatures in the future.
Scientists documented evidence that the Arctic Ocean and Nordic Seas were too warm to support summer sea ice during the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.3 to 3 million years ago). This period is characterized by warm temperatures similar to those projected for the end of this century, and is used as an analog to understand future conditions.
The U.S. Geological Survey found that summer sea-surface temperatures in the Arctic were between 10 to 18°C (50 to 64°F) during the mid-Pliocene, while current temperatures are around or below 0°C (32°F).
Examining past climate conditions allows for a true understanding of how Earth’s climate system really functions. USGS research on the mid-Pliocene is the most comprehensive global reconstruction for any warm period. This will help refine climate models, which currently underestimate the rate of sea ice loss in the Arctic.
Loss of sea ice could have varied and extensive consequences, such as contributions to continued Arctic warming, accelerated coastal erosion due to increased wave activity, impacts to large predators (polar bears and seals) that depend on sea ice cover, intensified mid-latitude storm tracks and increased winter precipitation in western and southern Europe, and less rainfall in the American west.
“In looking back 3 million years, we see a very different pattern of heat distribution than today with much warmer waters in the high latitudes,” said USGS scientist Marci Robinson. “The lack of summer sea ice during the mid-Pliocene suggests that the record-setting melting of Arctic sea ice over the past few years could be an early warning of more significant changes to come.”
Global average surface temperatures during the mid-Pliocene were about 3°C (5.5°F) greater than today and within the range projected for the 21st century by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Read the full article at http://micropress.org/stratigraphy/.
[ PDF is here http://micropress.org/stratigraphy/papers/Stratigraphy_6_4_265-275.pdf – Anthony ]
Scientists studied conditions during the mid-Pliocene by analyzing fossils dated back to this time period. The USGS led this research through the Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping group. The primary collaborators in PRISM are Columbia University, Brown University, University of Leeds, University of Bristol, the British Geological Survey and the British Antarctic Survey. Learn more about PRISM research.
USGS provides science for a changing world. For more information, visit www.usgs.gov.
If the authors pupose was to support the AGW hypothesis, they sure shot themselves in the foot as they just escorted the “elephant” into the room!
If it was 3 deg warmer 3 million years ago, what was the forcing mechanism that caused that & why cant that be the same forcing mechanism be at work since the end of the LIA ??
Until someone can unequivacally answer that, the AGW hypothesis is dead!
Once again, this is no surprise to geoscientists , which is why we are one of the most skeptical groups out here in the real world. The change in climate over the last 100 years is insignificant in magnitude compared to climate change through geologic history…. and I have to see any one rule out natural forcing mechanisms or even try to separate them from potential GHG forcings for the last 100 years of climate.
Of course, as a side node, somehow the world did manage to survive the Pliocene without any government intervention- imagine that !!
“Scientists documented evidence that the Arctic Ocean and Nordic Seas were too warm to support summer sea ice during the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.3 to 3 million years ago). ”
Wait.
Fred Flintstone drove an SUV??????????
lebrochure (16:41:49) :
If global warming is not the cause of the Artic climate changes then what motivation due the pro-global warming scientist have to lay false claims or have they just mis-calculated or misinterpretted the climate data?
**************************************************
MONEY and CONTROL of people…
Forgot to mention this as well – This paper also kills Hansens “tipping point” hypothesis – evidently it was warmer, but we didn’t have runaway warming & become Venus. So, 2 hypothesis killed with one paper. Nicely done USGS!
There was increasing geologic evidence 35 years ago that the Earth was surely headed towards a New Ice Age.
Evidently the geologic evidence has changed.
Can anyone figure out why there is a 10 year time lag at work here?
It takes them 10 years to mount a bullhorn campaign to full steam, meanwhile, the climate has done an about face. It takes 10 years for the world + dog to get what’s happening, but it also take the bullhorn campaign an additional 10 years to figure out that they have been, once again, running after tabloid mirages instead of doing journalism.
This is surely a trend at work. 0 for 4 if you count the current flabbergastation.
There are a number of assumptions and dependence on relatively skimpy data and sampling that make this research speculative. There needs to be a lot more confirmation before accepting the conclusions.
A hypothesis, singular (from Greek ὑπόθεσις; plural hypotheses.
🙂
We have a primary sewer plant here that has always been run on the methane that it extracts from settling all the poop. Our old landfill is also contributing to our natural gas supply. Actually, collecting of methane makes sense, the technology is there, and at least here, no government subsidies as there is a profit motive.
Not all ideas from the pro side are wrong.
Quick question: where were the poles 3 million years ago?
Given that the rotational pole moves, what is currently arctic was NOT arctic in the past… but how long ago was that?
At least the remediation of the methane problem, by converting it to a far less potent green house gas, is an easy enough thing to do.
Equip the cows with pilot lights.
When the planet’s human inhabitants get too excited about something they usually, unlike lemmings who jump into the sea, start a war for no good reason, any reason in a pinch, and no reason if they’re really upset. Humans are as predictable as the weather. I don’t trust none of ’em. Specially the ones that carry banners and signs with slogans, they’s the worst.
So, if “[g]lobal average surface temperatures during the mid-Pliocene were […] within the range projected for the 21st century by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change”, did the oceans become highly acidic and kill off a lot of species of sea creatures, as is apparently being predicted by some of the global warming alarmists?
I agree with Gary (17:01:59). The text uses “implies”, “assume”, and “infer” often. It doesn’t appear that they have a firm basis to claim much about the temps 3 million years ago.
lebrochure… in a word, funding.
leo G… [i]Not all ideas from the pro side are wrong.[/i]
Not all ideas from the pro side are right, either. The ones that involve taxing and spending are “WHOA! Let’s put on the brakes!” time.
“Amazing -polar bears survived/thrived despite no ice.”
Actually, there were no polar bears at that time. Polar bears are a rather recent adaptation of a brown bear.
xyzlatin: “We need to get moving to cool the planet’s temperature. Methane is the most effective place for us to start.”
Eat mor chikin’
OT — Weather is not climate
Portland Oregon U.S.A. – Snow storm. Three inches so far.
Storm came right off the North Pacific ocean. Snow storms right off the Pacific are unusual.
Predicted as straight rain (normal).
Nobody predicted snow storm.
But there it is…
David L Hagan wrote:
“Amazing -polar bears survived/thrived despite no ice.”
Polar bears are believed to have evolved within the last half million years.
Clearly Big Oil paid off the USGS…right now is the warmest it’s ever been in the history of the planet. All due to Capitalism and industry. In fact, if we don’t reverse our prosperity now, the Earth will catch fire or flood; but extreme cold and blizzards are also evidence that Capitalism is causing the warmest (and coldest) temperatures EVER in the history of the planet. Therefore, we must all go back to living like people did a century ago (the elitists are exempt of course) and people should only be allowed to have one child and eat absolutely no meat!!! It feels warmer suddenly. I think climate is changing faster! Quick, we need carbon taxes to fix the climate!!!!
“This period is characterized by warm temperatures similar to those projected for the end of this century, and is used as an analog to understand future conditions.”
Oh yeah, the reliable projections that have failed 100%.
Re: tornadomark (16:02:35
Not far off the real mark, as Gary (17:01:59 pointed out, there are too many assumptions to count in such “studies.” I could just as well assume from fossils that I need to give my children spf2000 sun-tan lotion as to make the conclusions that they make from such little data!
Leo G (17:12:16) :
“Not all ideas from the pro side are wrong.”
No, they’re not. They (real) environmentalists (EG: Bjørn Lomborg) have some pretty good ideas. It’s the extremists that we need to worry about and their command and control ideas. Most of of would find living under those ideas to be somewhat uncomfortable.
“Record setting melting”…? Pfft, they only have a 30 year satellite record…. Anecdotally there was significant melt back in the 1920’s….
Secondly. If the Arctic ice cap could melt naturally 3 million years ago, why is it beyond the stretch of imagination that it couldn’t melt naturally at anytime?
I think the media become overwrought when scientists say things.
To put the article in perspective, 3 million years ago is what geologists dismiss as “yesterday”. Very young stuff, with the continents in nearly the present day position.