This is a paleoclimatology finding, with current spin added. I guess they haven’t seen the latest on the NAO and AO.
USGS Press Release: Arctic Could Face Warmer and Ice-Free Conditions
Released: 12/29/2009 6:20:34 AM
There is increased evidence that the Arctic could face seasonally ice-free conditions and much warmer temperatures in the future.
Scientists documented evidence that the Arctic Ocean and Nordic Seas were too warm to support summer sea ice during the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.3 to 3 million years ago). This period is characterized by warm temperatures similar to those projected for the end of this century, and is used as an analog to understand future conditions.
The U.S. Geological Survey found that summer sea-surface temperatures in the Arctic were between 10 to 18°C (50 to 64°F) during the mid-Pliocene, while current temperatures are around or below 0°C (32°F).
Examining past climate conditions allows for a true understanding of how Earth’s climate system really functions. USGS research on the mid-Pliocene is the most comprehensive global reconstruction for any warm period. This will help refine climate models, which currently underestimate the rate of sea ice loss in the Arctic.
Loss of sea ice could have varied and extensive consequences, such as contributions to continued Arctic warming, accelerated coastal erosion due to increased wave activity, impacts to large predators (polar bears and seals) that depend on sea ice cover, intensified mid-latitude storm tracks and increased winter precipitation in western and southern Europe, and less rainfall in the American west.
“In looking back 3 million years, we see a very different pattern of heat distribution than today with much warmer waters in the high latitudes,” said USGS scientist Marci Robinson. “The lack of summer sea ice during the mid-Pliocene suggests that the record-setting melting of Arctic sea ice over the past few years could be an early warning of more significant changes to come.”
Global average surface temperatures during the mid-Pliocene were about 3°C (5.5°F) greater than today and within the range projected for the 21st century by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Read the full article at http://micropress.org/stratigraphy/.
[ PDF is here http://micropress.org/stratigraphy/papers/Stratigraphy_6_4_265-275.pdf – Anthony ]
Scientists studied conditions during the mid-Pliocene by analyzing fossils dated back to this time period. The USGS led this research through the Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping group. The primary collaborators in PRISM are Columbia University, Brown University, University of Leeds, University of Bristol, the British Geological Survey and the British Antarctic Survey. Learn more about PRISM research.
USGS provides science for a changing world. For more information, visit www.usgs.gov.
Algore says that is cuz the earth now 5 million degrees 2 kilometers down was that warm close to the surface.
Amazing -polar bears survived/thrived despite no ice.
With regard to cooling, it looks like the warmists of the IPCC are moving along to use another gas to raise money for them from Governments, according to the Wall St Journal of Dec 28th.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704039704574616130812043404.html?mod=WSJASIA_newsreel_opinion#articleTabs%3Darticle
We need to get moving to cool the planet’s temperature. Methane is the most effective place for us to start.
Mr. Watson is former chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Mr. Mohamed El-Ashry is a senior fellow at the United Nations Foundation, and former CEO of Global Environment Facility, an independent partnership that funds environmental projects in the developing world.
This is why on Dec. 11, along with a distinguished group of colleagues from the scientific and financial communities, we proposed the creation of a Global Methane Fund to address the specific measures needed to get methane projects off the ground now. This includes a guaranteed price floor for methane projects to allay uncertainty over future carbon prices.
Funded by governments and private foundations, a Global Methane Fund with only $100 million to $200 million could leverage tens of billions of dollars for other projects, which will have a quick and measurable cooling effect in the Arctic and elsewhere. Scientific studies, such as the EPA’s June 2006 report, “Global Mitigation of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases,” conservatively indicate that we could eliminate 1.3 gigatons of annual CO2 equivalent emissions—that’s half the U.S. power industry’s emissions—just by targeting landfills, coal mines, and oil and gas leaks.
Such a fund would benefit melting glaciers in the Arctic, and in the Andean and Himalayan mountains. And it would demonstrate to the world that we can do something to quickly slow climate change.
So all that ice and snow melting during spring, summer and autumn is natural then ?! Holy warming, who would have guessed ?!
But first let’s all have a deep freeze anomaly.
This conclusion comes from a sample of twelve bristlecone pines… plus a few tea leaves.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Messinian_salinity_crisis#Several_cycles
Ok, but the Mediterranean Sea apparently evaporated several times through out geological history (Pleistocene also, I believe). Should I lose sleep over that too?
tornadomark – now that is funny! LOL
I did not realise that farting caused summer to come quicker. I wonder if that is true for both hemispheres?
I seriously question that the climate patterns would be the same as today, particularly the ocean currents considering continental drift, which can move continents 150-200+ kilometers. They just about had to be different.
Furthermore, the Isthmus of Panama (Darien) formed about 3 million years ago. Wow, that would be the time they are talking about! The lack of a Gulf Stream and a more circum-equatorial flow would have significantly changed the planet’s climate.
Spin it on, but to think that the planet has been status quo for 3 million years and allows predictions of our future is venturing into fantasy just as do the climate models we have today. This information cannot and will not make the models any better.
Just my opinion, but hey!
It should also be pointed out that the recent report that CFCs and solar input drives climate is ludicrous regarding CFCs. Since they are at 80 ppt (parts per trillion), they would be about 5,000,000 less concentrated than CO2 (385 ppm) in the atmosphere. To think that this could drive the climate or warm it is really pursuing the “we have to find a way to blame it on humans no matter what” idea to its bitter end.
They are banking on people not realizing how relatively little CFCs there is in the air while they recognize CFCs as an alarming term from years ago.
These bristle cones have not been adjusted and enhanced by Mann. They are still raw data.
Great news: In 3 million years hence, it will be too warm for Arctic Sea Ice.
It’s Pure Concocted Chaff to think that GCM’s can accurately predict such a sudden turn away from the last million years of Ice Ages with a temperature network that has been beat into scrap metal and fuzzy proxies.
I mean, look at thier track record !!
They are as about connected with the outside world as the bubble boy in HDPE.
I’ll take Piers Corbyn for $2000, Alex.
So in the mid pleistocene there was run-away global warming as well, was there? Wherever it ran to, it seems to have sneaked back home.
btw, it’s raining here at 2000m. All the world’s snow seems to be in the wrong place, and I’ve a good mind to write to the gravy train engineer to complain about it.
in mid summer how warm is the suns rays shining on the ice in the Arctic?. i.e here air temp in the shade may be 25c but out in the sun its 45c. what im getting at is that if air temp is taken in the shade in the Arctic it may be -1c but for most of the Arctic it is in the sun light and the temp may be well above 10c up to 24hours aday in summer. Just a thought.
will these guys ever learn? just look at the leading authors and you can bet its pro AGW
Next stop methane tax.
OT but interesting article:
Stormy Times For Global Warmists
Hurricanes, it turns out, are not caused by climate change.
http://www.forbes.com/2009/12/29/climate-change-hurricane-al-gore-opinions-contributors-michael-fumento.html
“The lack of summer sea ice during the mid-Pliocene suggests that the record-setting melting of Arctic sea ice over the past few years could be an early warning of more significant changes to come.”
This must just be to get more funding. They can’t possibly think this is relevant.
The earth warmed up in the Pliocene without man-made CO2. Ergo warming can be caused by something else. Ergo we cannot be sure CO2 is the problem (if indeed there is a problem) this time.
However you slice it, this is no evidence for AGW. I’m with Charles above, in that it is evidence of nothing at all.
Henry chance (16:11:54) :
tornadomark (16:02:35) :
This conclusion comes from a sample of twelve bristlecone pines… plus a few tea leaves
These bristle cones have not been adjusted and enhanced by Mann. They are still raw data.
*********************************************
Eral Grey please and 98.6 degrees…..
Sorry….. couldn’t resist….
GLOBAL METHANE FUND….
What are we now going to compress it and save it for heating purposes? I want to see them putting the cork in to cows and capture lines…
they will stop at nothing to gain control over the population through taxation..
Quote from a french soldier in Monty Python and the Holy grail
Methane, Polar Bears who would of thought. Dietary restrictions on those animals should fix the problem and right at the source no less.
“Ok, but the Mediterranean Sea apparently evaporated several times through out geological history (Pleistocene also, I believe). Should I lose sleep over that too?”
Yes. It becomes that much easier for North Africans to invade Europe.
(More seriously, I wonder if that could have aided the spread of Homo out of Africa?)
If global warming is not the cause of the Artic climate changes then what motivation due the pro-global warming scientist have to lay false claims or have they just mis-calculated or misinterpretted the climate data?
“Mapou (16:23:06) :
[…]
Hurricanes, it turns out, are not caused by climate change.
http://www.forbes.com/2009/12/29/climate-change-hurricane-al-gore-opinions-contributors-michael-fumento.html”
From the article:
“A lot of individuals and a lot of companies have grossly overpaid.”
You know what that means?
LAWSUITS!
And at one time the entire earth was a snowball. That would be really bad and we should do everything we can to stop that from occurring.
Climate changes, living things adapt.
Polar bears are just brown bears that moved north about 250,000 years ago and turned white to better hide from seals.
What do people think tundra is?