In the last month, the Arctic Oscillation Index (AO) has gone strongly negative. You can see that it headed to its negative peak right about the time the Copenhagen Climate Conference started, so it is no wonder that they ironically experienced cold and snow there. It is also a setup for the record snow and cold Canada and the USA has seen recently.
Source: NOAA Climate Predication Center Daily AO Index
With this change happening, the setup for an increased Arctic Sea Ice Maximum is enhanced this year, likely to happen sometime around March 1st, 2010.
NSIDC has an interesting writeup and graphic on the AO:
From NSIDC:
The Arctic Oscillation refers to opposing atmospheric pressure patterns in northern middle and high latitudes.
The oscillation exhibits a “negative phase” with relatively high pressure over the polar region and low pressure at midlatitudes (about 45 degrees North), and a “positive phase” in which the pattern is reversed. In the positive phase, higher pressure at midlatitudes drives ocean storms farther north, and changes in the circulation pattern bring wetter weather to Alaska, Scotland and Scandinavia, as well as drier conditions to the western United States and the Mediterranean. In the positive phase, frigid winter air does not extend as far into the middle of North America as it would during the negative phase of the oscillation. This keeps much of the United States east of the Rocky Mountains warmer than normal, but leaves Greenland and Newfoundland colder than usual. Weather patterns in the negative phase are in general “opposite” to those of the positive phase, as illustrated below.
Over most of the past century, the Arctic Oscillation alternated between its positive and negative phases. Starting in the 1970s, however, the oscillation has tended to stay in the positive phase, causing lower than normal arctic air pressure and higher than normal temperatures in much of the United States and northern Eurasia.
As we see in this graph below, we’ve seen more red (positive) than blue (negative) phases of the AO in the last 30–40 years. Whether this is short period negative excursion or the start of a longer trend is unknown.
Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center
There are other indicators recently of a flip in patterns, notable is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation which changed last year, but we also see the North Atlantic Oscillation in a negative phase as well. Whether it will remain negative or not we’ll soon know, but note that it has been negative the majority of time since August 31st.
Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center
Since 2000, it has seen a fair amount of negative time also:
Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center
The climate change seems to be changing now.
h/t to Werner Weber
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Perhaps for ease of use as much as accuracy, you might care to refer to the lowest points as troughs, rather than negative peaks. I’m off to look out my thermal underwear and then shovel some more snow off the driveway…
CO2 Busted!!! Again and again and again!!!!!
Its seems to be an intellectual benefit NOT to be AGW junkie. Maybe lack of intelligence explains the whole AGW religion.
Paul Vaughan:
tallbloke (05:13:38) “The sea normally warms the land in winter by giving heat to the air which then passes over land, but because the trade winds are weak, and the air is less humid, this isn’t helping as much as before, and the interiors of the N.H. continents are getting mighty cold.”
Are you suggesting the giant stir-stick is
taking a vacation? [ :
Well, my analysis was a very abbreviated version, but basically, yes. For a more detailed analysis of what the later part of the winter has in store, this is pretty thorough:
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=other;type=winterbulletin;sess=
Small snippet:
The NAO is also linked to the Arctic Oscillation (AO), particularly during the second half of the winter when high pressure over the Arctic (negative AO phase) can force the NAO negative through a large block developing over Greenland effectively deflecting the jet stream southwards. The biggest determinant of the AO during the winter months, especially during El Nino events, is the state of the stratosphere over the Arctic.
And more from the same link:
Currently, the net balance of winds or globally averaged angular momentum (GLAAM) is below average indicating La Nina type weather patterns still persisting despite the presence of warm surface waters in the equatorial Pacific consistent with El Nino. This is probably related to the extended lull in solar activity although the east QBO, which is adding a 15 m/s component to the overall wind budget is also a factor.
Can you predict what latitudes in Asia will be affected?
Thanks,
Bill
Since the warming stopped in 1998 the NAO has been mostly positive (at least according to the top chart standardized at 1950-2000. However, nothing like 1986-1995.
“In the positive phase, frigid winter air does not extend as far into the middle of North America as it would during the negative phase of the oscillation. This keeps much of the United States east of the Rocky Mountains warmer than normal,
but leaves Greenland and Newfoundland COLDER than usual.
Weather patterns in the negative phase are in general “opposite” to those of the positive phase, as illustrated below.”
Seems a negative NAO means warmer temperatures for Greenland, or should I say less cold. I guess the warmers will focus on any warming trend their.
tallbloke (05:57:56) & (06:00:22) ” http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=other;type=winterbulletin;sess= “
Thanks – some interesting observations there on dates of anomalous GLAAM/NAO/AO/SOI/QBO phase-relations – exactly what I’ve been looking into recently (along with aa/PDO/AMO/LOD/others). The notes have inspired some tweaking of …
http://www.sfu.ca/~plv/fAO_fNAO.png
…to arrive at …
http://www.sfu.ca/~plv/fAO_fNAO_1a.png
(annual smoothing)
…& then …
http://www.sfu.ca/~plv/fAO_fNAO_1a..png
(1st derivative with annual smoothing)
…which I’m discovering (watch for an update) helps provide insight into the timing of kinks in…
http://www.sfu.ca/~plv/CumuSumAO70.png
….when phase relations involving LOD/GLAAM/QBO/SOI are taken into account. (Someone with your patience & curiosity will see what I mean without further words – watch for a few more plots which I hope to have time to edit & add….)
continued from above …
http://www.sfu.ca/~plv/GLAAM_LOD_AO_NAO.png
When noting the late-80s to mid-90s phase-concordance, remember the acceleration of Arctic ice-melt during this period and the concurrent Netherlands warming, which one of our formerly-regular alarmist-visitors has drawn to our attention (with no mention of cumulative AO – but with plenty of other assumptions).
Blink between browser-tabs to compare with:
http://www.sfu.ca/~plv/GLAAM_LOD_SOI.png
Note that there appears to be something interesting going on with the pattern-shift at the 5 to 6 year timescale. [My first guess, based on earlier studies would be polar motion; further investigation (for example via cross-wavelet phase-coherence) is necessary. It already looks like this is going to get quite interesting — there are several variables showing time-normalized power in roughly the same timescale-band – (linear-correlations are intermittently getting crushed by spatial-stirring & asymmetry) — I will be particularly interested in comparing phase-mismatches with the terrestrial polar motion record. I’ll probably need to develop new computational methods & software.]
For reference:
http://www.sfu.ca/~plv/QBO_fGLAAM_fLOD.png
http://www.sfu.ca/~plv/QBOperiod.PNG
[Reminder to other investigators: Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) spatiotemporal-phasing (more another day…)]
Anecdotally, I’ve also found this:
http://www.sfu.ca/~plv/faa_fPPT_1918-1931.png
…which ties in with the concurrent sharp drop here:
http://www.sfu.ca/~plv/ChandlerPeriodAgassizBC,CanadaPrecipitationTimePlot.PNG
…& of course this all happens on the concurrent climb here:
http://www.sfu.ca/~plv/PolarMotionPeriodMorlet2piPower.PNG
Apologies to the moderator.
My last post John Finn (09:54:33) : was posted to the wrong thread. Please delete.
Thanks.
http://www.picotech.com/experiments/global/globalwarming.html
Any comments?
thanks
‘Starting in the 1970s, however, the oscillation has tended to stay in the positive phase, causing lower than normal arctic air pressure and higher than normal temperatures in much of the United States and northern Eurasia.’
As this is where much of the global warming scare came from, can we blame God for flipping the AO and hence cause temperatures to rise or did we, human beings, fly to the moon too often, thereby changing the atmosphere, stratosphere etc etc and cause the change through BEING BAD BOYS AND GIRLS?!
To me, where climate science research should be at now is coming to understand how the modes of many parameters are influenced, modulated and flipped. AO, PDO, ENSO, IPWP etc etc.
There seems to be good 1 – 3 day forecasting now.
Also good medium-range prediction of extreme seasons and storms. Maybe not by those who run the 1 -3 day forecasts, though!
ENSO predictions are starting to come along. Not routine yet, but the monitoring systems are there for reduction to practice by 2025 – 30.
Solar predictions remain an art form, not an exact science. No reason it shouldn’t become understood by 2030 though. IMHO.
If the interdecadal segment can be added, then weather predictions can start to become useful in strategic commerce.
SPECIAL REQUEST:
Please give a precise, clear definition of the ARCTIC OSCILLATION in such a way that you make VERY clear when the “negative” corresponds to the correct temperature (warmer?/ colder?) over the arctic.
Every description I see does NOT make this clear.
So, please, make it clear:
NEGATIVE = what? — warm over the arctic or cold?
POSITIVE= what? — warm or cold where?
Graphs of the anomally have the low pressure going upward and the high going downward, then they leave out the connection between which is positive and negative correspondingly. What’s up with that?
Please clarify, …. clearly, … once and for all.
Thanks,
Robert