Last week we had quite a row about temperature and temperature adjustments in Wellington New Zealand. One of the stations cited was the Kelburn district of Wellington, NZ.
NIWA issued a response statement regarding the charges leveled by The NZ Climate Science Coalition here:
http://www.niwa.co.nz/our-science/climate/news/all/niwa-confirms-temperature-rise
They say:
Warming over New Zealand through the past century is unequivocal.
NIWA’s analysis of measured temperatures uses internationally accepted techniques, including making adjustments for changes such as movement of measurement sites. For example, in Wellington, early temperature measurements were made near sea level, but in 1928 the measurement site was moved from Thorndon (3 metres above sea level) to Kelburn (125 m above sea level). The Kelburn site is on average 0.8°C cooler than Thorndon, because of the extra height above sea level.
The NZ Climate Science Coalition responded with a series of graphs that showed how the temperature record of stations in Wellington looks:
And they write:
What’s interesting is that if you leave Kelburn out of the equation, Thorndon in 1910 is not far below Airport 2010. Perhaps that gave NIWA some confidence that the two locations were equivalent, but I’m betting Thorndon a hundred years ago was very different from an international airport now.
Of course we all know that airports tend to run hotter than surrounding areas due to the huge expanses of runway, tarmac, terminal buildings, and car parks they have become as aviation has grown in the last 100 years, so it is no surprise to see the airport hotter than Kelburn, which is higher in elevation and with a bit more greenery, owing to the nearby Botanical Gardens.
I had an interest in tracking down the Kelburn station, just to see how good it is. I was able to find it on Google Earth as an aerial view which you can see below. I was unsuccessful in my first attempts at finding a photograph to document the measurement environment of the Kelburn station. I picked up the hunt again a few days later, and found it hiding in plain site. Thank goodness for tourists.
You can see the Stevenson screen is surrounded by astronomical science, such as the historic Dominion Observatory and the Carter Observatory to the west (off screen). But from a climate science perspective, it is also surrounded by asphalt, with a car park to the east. According to the Google Earth measurement tool, vehicles are parked within 6 meters of the Stevenson Screen.
But I really really wanted to get a ground level view to absolute ascertain the placement of the Stevenson Screen. Lots of web searches turn up nothing. I found pictures of the observatories, pictures of the Krupp gun, pictures of the skyline, but no pictures of the nearby weather station. After all, other than myself and surfacestations.org volunteers, who takes pictures of weather stations while on vacation? Still I figured, this is a major tourist spot, within walking distance of the top of the famous Wellington cable car, surely somebody had snapped a photo?
Then I discovered something in Google Earth called “Panoramio”, which had a whole collection of tourist submitted shots around the observatories.
Bingo!
Here’s the full image from Panoramio, the Stevenson Screen is clearly visible. Thank you J. Baines, wherever you are.
The car park asphalt at 6 meters away puts the station rating at CRN4, based on NOAA’s site quality rating system used for their Climate Reference Network. I’ve found that the vast majority of historical stations in the USA have been affected this way:
One wonders how this area has changed over time, and how long the car park has been there, and how much it, and the tourist vehicles that park next to the fence have contributed to the Kelburn climate record. Someone familiar with the history of the observatory might be able to shed some light on this. Was the screen always in this location? When did the car park go in? How many tree have been cleared around the site over the years? How many new buildings (Like the Carter Observatory) have but put up nearby? These are all issues which affect the temperature record. Disentangling those influences is difficult without an historical context.
I don’t blame the scientists at the observatory for letting the climate measurement environment at Kelburn deteriorate, after all they are charged with looking upwards, not at the grounds around them.
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Measuring average global temperature (AGT) to an accuracy of +/- 0.0C is a non-trivial task. The whole premiss that this is possible using current techniques is false. Climate is a dynamic non-linear system and this requires very very high granularity, both in terms of geography and time if accuracy is to be achieved.
No wonder the Climategate leak indicated that Dr. Jones at the UEA CRU has destroyed the original raw data he used to construct the whole CAGW pack of cards.
Perhaps as well that AGT is a meaningless concept in the understanding of climate with system energy fluctuation the only useful proxy for climate change. As the Earth’s system energy fluctuates at all time-scales, don’t expect any good understanding of climate any time soon.
Jerry (18:52:02) :
I concur with your observation. In fact, I have found that not only does the Weather Underground have temps lower than the ‘official reported’ temps, I can reproduce the WU temps, as can many folks I know.
Either the ‘official’ sensors are daffy, or the reported temps are doctored.
This is an exercise (experiment if you will) that anyone can perform. Go find an official station, and take the temp nearby using a handheld (calibrate first).
You will be in for a surprise more often than you would think.
Reply
Have you also notice the high and the low for the day change when they become “official” the next day. The temp here is always raised at least 2 to 3 degrees F
RE: “I noticed something about the Wellington Airport Temp graph. There is a break for 1-2 years around 1992.
From 1960 to 1992 the trend looks pretty flat, but when the temperatures resume in 1994 there seems to be a step change upwards.
Now this could be due to the actual temperatures being higher from 1994 or / and there could be an influence due to any possible relocation.”
—
The Airport purchased land from the Miramar Golf Course in 1994 for car park space.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wellington_International_Airport
Have you have come across Phil Jones talk .ppt (Boulder 2009)?
called ‘A secret history of the observed surface temperature record’
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/symposium/061909presentations/Jones_Boulder_june2009.ppt
It has some interesting charts and surfacestations.org gets a mention!
The flat earther’s were the existing scientists like Mann, Hansen and Jones in the consensis. Galileo would been one of the current skeptics.
I am a New Zealander, a native of Wellington City, now living in the USA. To declare my bias, I am a libertarian, hostile to globalism and anti-IPCC. I remember visiting the Kelburn Observatory as a child in the 1950’s, and again in the late 1990’s. For what it is worth — a subjective memory, not an objective fact — I do not believe the site has changed substantially in respect of tree cover, asphalted area, etc, since then. The site’s elevated situation would make the macro-weather (sea winds, etc) much more of an influence on its overall temperature than any small area of parking lot.
Somewhat off topic, but here is an interesting abstract showing the influence of surface albedo on temperature is at http://infoscience.epfl.ch/record/140742
They mention sonic temperature measurements. I think that is the way to go in future temperature measurements. A pdf file describing the theory is at http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/IMOP/publications/IOM-82-TECO_2005/Posters/P3(09)_Germany_4_Lanzinger.pdf
They use a 20 cm baseline and get 0.3 C accuarcy or better. If one built and instrument in the shape of a cross with the sound source in the center and 4 sensors on the outside, one could measure temperature and wind velocity very accurately. With a 5 meter baseline, a 0.01 C accuracy or better should be obtainable. The major error source then will probably be relative humidity and pressure. In order to get temperatures below -25 C, they need to protect the electronics more, perhaps burying it.
If I ran the zoo, that would be my approach.
What really upsets me about these charts is that they show averaged data. Each point is the temperature averaged over one year. Now imagine the difference if you took instead the data from the temperature measured at noon on 1st August each year. If you did that then you would see huge variations in temperature of perhaps as much as 30Celsius, depending on the weather on that day.
By averaging, the charts suggest there is less variation in temperatures than there really is. If you plotted the temperature on a specific day as I have suggested, you would not be able to see any change in the underlying climate of just 0.5Celsius. Looking at it statistically, if you took the mean and standard deviation of the 1st August temperatures in blocks of ten years you might see a shift of 0.5Celsius in the means but the standard deviation would probably be about 15Celsius. From this you could probably calculate the probabilities of the temperature over a 30 year period being “off-trend”
I’m just a regular Joe (no science background) that is following the debates with amazement. As a year round bicycle commuter in SW Missouri I’m interested in current temperature readings since I’m so exposed to the weather every day. I have a digital temperature gauge at my home so I can get a quick look at the current temp so I know what to wear (more accurate than the porch method of standing outside and feeling the air and quicker than waiting for the morning news to get to the forecast). One thing that always puzzles me is that the gauge at my home is consistently 2-5 degrees F cooler than what the local channel reports. The news gets their official temp from the airport. I always figured that my dinky consumer gauge was probably just not as precise as the official gauge that the news crew uses, or maybe my mounting location wasn’t wise, but sometimes the difference is unbelievably high.
The SurfaceStations work must be rushed to completion in light of the EPA’s regulatory issuance. An administrative law challenge is sure to follow and the SurfaceStations data and analysis could be critically important.
Australia left cap-n-tax because they saw in the HARRY_READ_ME.txt file just how Australian data was outright manipulated.
See http://emelks.wordpress.com/2009/12/07/why-australia-bailed-cap-n-tax/
Evil and obscene don’t even begin to describe it.
I used to work in Thorndon during the early 1980s, so have an interest in the area. I’ve been trying to track down the history of the Thorndon Weather Observatory. So far I’ve found this article from the Evening Post, published on the 5th of June 1912.
NEW OBSERVATORY OPENED BY MINISTER OF MARINE
http://paperspast.natlib.govt.nz/cgi-bin/paperspast?a=d&d=EP19120605.2.94
The article refers to the site being located on Thorndon Esplanade. I can’t find Thorndon Esplanade on a current map. I do know that a lot of reclamation work was undertaken in the area, but I’m not sure when. My guess is that the site was near the shore of Wellington Harbour, as the Observatory was opened by the Minister of Marine. The ols site is probably now inland, due to the reclamation work.
I especially enjoyed the comments made by the minister, reported at the end of the article.
BUSINESS AS USUAL FOR CRU
Here they are caught manipulating data and concealing problems in 2001
http://www.john-daly.com/cru/index.htm
David – New Zealand (02:57:42) :
“I worked at both Met Offices in Kelburn ( 1963 -1965) and Wellington Airport (1967) as a Meteorological Technician,”
Perhaps you could help? I’ve been trying to determine what station(s) were used to map the “Airport” temps on the NIWA graph Anthony provided above.
There seems to have been a lot of station moves, some stations may be missing from the NIWA database, and data for different stations may be mixed together. Could you shed any light on what “27610858 MOVED 1.2KM NW MET OFFICE CLOSED BUT DATA FROM E1438C/93439 IS BEING ARCHIVED UNDER THIS NUMBER” below might mean? Any comments would be appreciated.
:::::::::
http://cliflo.niwa.co.nz/pls/niwp/wstn.stn_details?cAgent=3445
3445 Wellington Aero 01-Dec-1959 –
-41.322 174.804
Grid Reference (NZ Metric Map Series) R27610858
Synoptic Number (World Met. Organisation Number) 93436
WRA No 143807
Observing Authority N/A
01-Sep-1960 – 93436
History:
01-Dec-1959 Station Opened R27614852
01-Jun-1994 R27611844OPENED BUT ITS DATA BEING ARCHIVED UNDER E14387/93436.
01-Aug-1994 R27610858 MOVED 1.2KM NW MET OFFICE CLOSED BUT DATA FROM E1438C/93439 IS BEING ARCHIVED UNDER THIS NUMBER.
25-Nov-1997 Annual maintenance and calibration visit. Wind speed and direction, rainfall, temperature, humidity and pressure all routinely replaced.
*********************************************************************************
http://cliflo.niwa.co.nz/pls/niwp/wstn.stn_details?cAgent=10331
10331 Wellington Aero Aws 01-Jun-1994 –
-41.335 174.805 (distance from above station 1.4 km)
Grid Reference (NZ Metric Map Series) R27611844
Synoptic Number (World Met. Organisation Number) 93439
WRA No 143812
Observing Authority Metservice
Air – Thermistor – Stevenson Scr
27-Jun-1994 – 93439
History:
01-Jun-1994 R27611844OPENED BUT ITS DATA BEING ARCHIVED UNDER E14387/93436.
*********************************************************
(Note: Where was station located at R27614852? )
Richard (22:32:56) :
“… the CliFlo database reveals that Hokitika seems to be made up of Hokitika South from 1866 to 1965, followed by Hokitika Aero until the present. There was a decent 14- month overlap during the closing of South and the opening of Aero.”
Having access to the NIWA database, I just put the temp data for 2Jan1964 to 31Dec1964 in Excel. The 35m higher altitude station, 3 Km away, was warmer by .24C.
Station elev averaged high/low
3909 39m 11.04C
3907 4 m 10.8C
@ur momisugly SouthernMan
re. Thorndon Station
“Davis Street Extenson, Thorndon, formed on reclaimed land (H. 1884, X. 1906, and Y. 1900 on plan) extends from Thorndon Quay to Waterloo Quay. This street consituted an approach to the Thorndon Esplanade and meteorological record instruments until 1927.”
http://www.nzetc.org/tm/scholarly/tei-WarEarl-t1-body-d16-d5-d2.html
http://www.nzetc.org/tm/scholarly/WarEarl-fig-WarEarl307a.html
Bob
What happened to the missing records???
http://www.nzetc.org/tm/scholarly/tei-WarEarl-t1-body-d21-d15.html
“Kelburn.—The “Dominion,” 15/12/27, states:—“‘We are now getting records from both stations,’ said Dr. Kidson, ‘so page 428 that some idea of the difference in conditions may be ascertained.’ From the beginning of the year (1928) the station at Thorndon will be abandoned.” This change is being made because the Railway Department requires the site at Thorndon.”
Glen,
That’s going to be a tough one….presume E1438C is the AWS, whenever that started up ( mid to late 1980’s as was the case with Gisborne Aerodrome, that I recall). Didn’t realize met office closed at Wellington Airport, 1994, but that figures cos’ Gisborne Met Office closed around 1992….where I last worked with Met office…
I was planning to pop up to the Met Office at the Airport, and make a few
enquiries, but, doh! no Met office – I will be in Wellington later this month, and was interested in the Kelburn site change since I was there many moons ago…take a few pictures etc
What “27610858 moved 1.2km NW Met Office Closed but Data from E1438C( AWS )/ 93439 is being Archived under this number”…moved in 1994….means?
My guess! R27610858 is the original met station opened in 1959, and along with the AWS opened whenever up until the last move when the office closed is stored under 27610858….
The new site ( AWS) opened in 1994, and filed under E14387/94346….meaning ? that the new site with AWS readings is being thrown in with the original site set up in 1959….treated ( archived ) as tho’ it’s from one station only…. Is that all making sense???? My head is starting to go round in circles trying to figure it all out! 8 – D
Just to throw another spanner in the works, I have on hand Met Observations for 1974….Wellington Airport E 14387 41 20S 174 49 E 6 METRES ???
Also note that Kelburn has same grid ref 41 17 S 174 46 E ( 1928 – 1960) and also same as recorded in 1974 publication of met observations, which is all I have on hand, but at least that gives us a bit more info…that the move of Kelburn site was sometime after 1974!
I know that is not much help at present, and willattempt to pursue this further in my Wellington visitation!
cheers
David – New Zealand (00:56:06) :
“What “27610858 moved 1.2km NW Met Office Closed but Data from E1438C( AWS )/ 93439 is being Archived under this number”…moved in 1994….means?
My guess! R27610858 is the original met station opened in 1959, and along with the AWS opened whenever up until the last move when the office closed is stored under 27610858….”
In the station log “01-Dec-1959 Station Opened R27614852”. That indicates a different location than “Aero” at R27610858 on Tirangi Street in the complex of the northern part of the airport (Rongotai?).
There is a closer match to R27614852 that maps near the AWS which appears to be right on the oceanfront at the south end of the runway, “Wellington Aero Amdr” at R27613852, start date of 1999 with no end date.
Where was the station at the airport when you worked there in 1967?
“Just to throw another spanner in the works, I have on hand Met Observations for 1974….Wellington Airport E14387 41 20S 174 49 E 6 METRES ???”
E14387 is Wellington Aero at R27610858 in NIMA records, they show 4 meters.
But the coordinates your source shows is located around the Botanical Gardens in Wellington, around 4 to 5 km north of the airport. Could just be coords are not accurate, though.
“Also note that Kelburn has same grid ref 41 17 S 174 46 E ( 1928 – 1960) and also same as recorded in 1974 publication of met observations, which is all I have on hand, but at least that gives us a bit more info…that the move of Kelburn site was sometime after 1974!”
Those coordinates define a location east of the airport on the other side of Miramar golf course, which matches CWOP station CW1914. The Kelburn station open from 1928 is located around the Botanical Gardens according to NIWA, at an altitude of 125 meters.
Could NIMA have mixed up data records of different locations for Kelburn, as it appears they have with “Airport”?
Here’s a map from 1891 showing Thorndon Esplanade http://www.wellington.govt.nz/services/archives/historicmaps/pdfs/sheet11.pdf Thorndon Esplanade would have been located between Thorndon Quay and Aotea Quay today.
Some perspective on the relationship between NIWA and MetService:
NIWA:
“a Crown Research Institute of New Zealand.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Institute_of_Water_and_Atmospheric_Research
Crown Research Institute:
“The New Zealand Government — via two Cabinet Ministers (the Minister of Research, Science and Technology and the Minister of Finance) — holds all shares in each of the current[update] eight CRIs.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crown_Research_Institute
MetService:
“Meteorological Service of New Zealand Limited (MetService) has been in existence since 1992 when it was established as a State-Owned Enterprise. It employs about 190 staff and its headquarters are in Wellington, New Zealand.
As New Zealand’s national meteorological service, MetService produces and issues forecasts and official weather warnings on behalf of New Zealand’s Ministry of Transport and is certified by the Civil Aviation Authority of New Zealand.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crown_Research_Institute
The New Zealand government owns and runs both.
@ur momisuglyBob
@ur momisugly Debbie
Thanks for providing the extra info. I hadn’t realised how early the reclamation work started, and how much land was created.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reclamation_of_Wellington_Harbour
Glen,
This is a 2nd attempt at a reply, as the original returned to me “insufficient postage” or something!
Met Office, Wellington Airport was located in the terminal building, 1st floor of the two storeyed building when I was there in 1967…as far as I can recall, the met enclosure was located south of the terminal building, maybe 100 yards or so….and ajacent to the north/south runway….
Those grid ref for both Weather Offices, are, as I have already indicated,
41 20 S 174 49 E Wellington Airport E 14387 , 6 metres; 41 17 S 174 46 E Kelburn E 14272 , 126 metres
I will endeavour to check those ref for both sites at library using N.Z topo maps, asap … I am running on dial – up at the moment cos’ I used all my 10 gegathingys up following Climategate!!! 8 – D . So much for Telecom!
Using data from N.Z M.S Pub. 109, Met Obs for 1974, I note that mean temps for both Wellington Airport and Kelburn for 1974 , were 13.4 and 12.8 deg C respectively ….which seems to compare favorably with the graph…
….more as it comes to hand ?
Glen,
Well, the first I will be doing will be to find out where exactly the met enclosures were located when I worked at both those locations ….that shouldn’t be too difficult, surely?
That will do for starters, apart from checking a few maps out….