Mike's Nature Trick

This is a mirrored post from ClimateAudit.org which is terribly overloaded.

Mike’s Nature trick

by Jean S on November 20th, 2009

So far one of the most circulated e-mails from the CRU hack is the following from Phil Jones to the original hockey stick authors – Michael Mann, Raymond Bradley, and Malcolm Hughes.

From: Phil Jones

To: ray bradley ,mann@xxxxx.xxx, mhughes@xxxx.xxx

Subject: Diagram for WMO Statement

Date: Tue, 16 Nov 1999 13:31:15 +0000

Cc: k.briffa@xxx.xx.xx,t.osborn@xxxx.xxx

Dear Ray, Mike and Malcolm,

Once Tim’s got a diagram here we’ll send that either later today or

first thing tomorrow.

I’ve just completed Mike’s Nature trick of adding in the real temps

to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) amd from

1961 for Keith’s to hide the decline. Mike’s series got the annual

land and marine values while the other two got April-Sept for NH land

N of 20N. The latter two are real for 1999, while the estimate for 1999

for NH combined is +0.44C wrt 61-90. The Global estimate for 1999 with

data through Oct is +0.35C cf. 0.57 for 1998.

Thanks for the comments, Ray.

Cheers

Phil

Prof. Phil Jones

Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) xxxxx

School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) xxxx

University of East Anglia

Norwich Email p.jones@xxxx.xxx

NR4 7TJ

UK

The e-mail is about WMO statement on the status of the global climate in 1999 -report, or more specifically, about its cover image.

click to enlarge

Back in December 2004 John Finn asked about “the divergence” in Myth vs. Fact Regarding the “Hockey Stick” -thread of RealClimate.org.

Whatever the reason for the divergence, it would seem to suggest that the practice of grafting the thermometer record onto a proxy temperature record – as I believe was done in the case of the ‘hockey stick’ – is dubious to say the least.

mike’s response speaks for itself.

No researchers in this field have ever, to our knowledge, “grafted the thermometer record onto” any reconstrution. It is somewhat disappointing to find this specious claim (which we usually find originating from industry-funded climate disinformation websites) appearing in this forum.

But there is an interesting twist here: grafting the thermometer onto a reconstruction is not actually the original “Mike’s Nature trick”! Mann did not fully graft the thermometer on a reconstruction, but he stopped the smoothed series in their end years. The trick is more sophisticated, and was uncovered by UC over here. (Note: Try not to click this link now, CA is overloaded. Can’t even get to it myself to mirror it. -A)

When smoothing these time series, the Team had a problem: actual reconstructions “diverge” from the instrumental series in the last part of 20th century. For instance, in the original hockey stick (ending 1980) the last 30-40 years of data points slightly downwards. In order to smooth those time series one needs to “pad” the series beyond the end time, and no matter what method one uses, this leads to a smoothed graph pointing downwards in the end whereas the smoothed instrumental series is pointing upwards — a divergence. So Mann’s solution was to use the instrumental record for padding, which changes the smoothed series to point upwards as clearly seen in UC’s figure (violet original, green without “Mike’s Nature trick”).

TGIF-magazine has already asked Jones about the e-mail, and he denied misleading anyone but did remember grafting.

“No, that’s completely wrong. In the sense that they’re talking about two different things here. They’re talking about the instrumental data which is unaltered – but they’re talking about proxy data going further back in time, a thousand years, and it’s just about how you add on the last few years, because when you get proxy data you sample things like tree rings and ice cores, and they don’t always have the last few years. So one way is to add on the instrumental data for the last few years.”

Jones told TGIF he had no idea what me meant by using the words “hide the decline”.

“That was an email from ten years ago. Can you remember the exact context of what you wrote ten years ago?”

Maybe it helps Dr. Jones’s recollection of the exact context, if he inspects UC’s figure carefully. We here at CA are more than pleased to be able to help such nice persons in these matters.


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Glenn
November 20, 2009 10:23 pm

TattyMane (19:56:02) :
“. . . I should have said in my previous post that I had attempted to post the Alice in Wonderland analogy over at RC but apparently Gavin’s tolerance for being compared to Humpty Dumpty is low. Oh well.”
Nominated for post of the day.

ROM
November 20, 2009 10:35 pm

This will no doubt this post will get lost in all the excellent posts above and still to come.
It seems to me that the Editors of Science, Nature and other journals that dabble in climate matters are in this up to their eyeballs and have been a part of and totally complicit in perpetrating this entire scam on the world of science, the public and the political systems of every western nation.
Had these editors stuck to their supposed policies of requiring complete documentation and archiving of every aspect pertaining to every paper presented by the HADCRU / GISS Team so that papers were totally open to scrutiny by all comers and could be checked and verified in an open forum then this situation would probably never had arisen as the Team would have had to come clean with the presentation of their papers for publication.
The editors of those so called prestigious science journals did not enforce their policies if they ever had any, and it now seems that they were also quite open to overt manipulation by members of the Team.
If the science journals wish to retain credibility and they alone are totally responsible for publishing the now discredited papers without any real checks, then the the Editorial and Governing boards of those journals should immediately take vigorous action to remove the offending and complicit editors and completely revamp and rigidly enforce their editorial policies on requiring full declarations and archiving of ALL relevant materials pertaining to a paper.
No action by these science journals just means that this scam will just be repeated again and again and in the long run, the tax paying public’s trust in the integrity of science will be drastically eroded and the discipline of science will suffer an unjustifiable collapse in the public’s regard for it’s high status.

KRM
November 20, 2009 10:38 pm

Please note this one:
Neil
There is a preference in the atmospheric observations chapter of IPCC
AR4 to stay with the 1961-1990 normals. This is partly because a change
of normals confuses users, e.g. anomalies will seem less positive than
before if we change to newer normals, so the impression of global
warming will be muted. Also we may wish to wait till there are 30 years
of satellite data, i.e until we can compute 1981-2010 normals, which
will then be globally complete for some parameters like sea surface
temperature.
Regards
David

Flints
November 20, 2009 10:59 pm

Disagreement between
Benjamin D. Santer & John Christy
Benny is pissed at John
Seems John doesn’t drink the Kool Aid
1248993704.txt

jlc
November 20, 2009 11:06 pm

i have been over to RC and, whilst it was more open than normal, the faithful were hyperventilating. (Even the cheering news of the death of John Daly was reinterpreted
and the critical comments claimed to be evidence of denialist evil).*
I am however, convinced, that we must maintain our courtesy to those who come here with courtesy. We may have a vast number of confused visitors here over the next few days.
Remember, we were all like them once. (At least I was).
Also honesty is always the best policy.
* Look, I can’t explain this either – go there and check it out.

November 20, 2009 11:08 pm

‘The spin doctors
Of climatology
will deny any bias
In their tricky methadology.’
Thanks to Steve Mc., Anthony , Jeff, Finn, et al for your dogged pursuit for real data. Time to put on my fire works display.

Bill H
November 20, 2009 11:10 pm

Robert M. (14:15:43) :
So,
What we have here is evidence that the team has engaged in:
1. Conspiracy
2. Government Fraud
3. Computer Fraud
4. Obstruction of Justice
5. Environmental Law Violations (Falsifying lab data pertaining to environmental regulations) (snicker)
6. Suppression of evidence
7. Tampering with evidence
8. Public Corruption
9. Bribery
Does that cover it?
Well i would add a nice Organized crime to this…say RICO?

Steve Schaper
November 20, 2009 11:12 pm

IANAL but it seems to me that Mr. Mann and Al Gore are quite possibily guilty of conspiring to defraud governments of hundreds of billions of dollars.

John McDonald
November 20, 2009 11:27 pm

I keep hearing the AGW proponents saying these documents were stolen, illegal, etc. They want to fully prosecute, etc. Huh?
WE HAVE NO IDEA IF THESE DOCUMENTS ARE ILLEGAL OR STOLEN. FOR ALL WE KNOW THEY WERE POSTED by one of the people listed in the email completely legally, I think Dr. Jones posted it for example because in a sudden attack of guilt – he turned – and is to embarrassed to tell his friends and thus refuses to acknowledge that he actually did it and thus hides his identity by posting in Russia. Until I know who the poster is and how the docs were obtained I assumed they are legal and the person or person(s) posting them wants to conceal there identity and is probably someone in the emails and responsible for the data and wants us to know the truth. Thank You Dr. Jones.

stephen parker
November 20, 2009 11:27 pm

What will gordon brown do now?.He was relying on green taxes to get the uk deficit down.I’m raising your taxes due to government incompetence doesn’t sound good does it?

J.Hansford
November 20, 2009 11:37 pm

“…..I’ve just completed Mike’s Nature trick of adding in the real temps
to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) amd from
1961 for Keith’s to hide the decline….”
———————————————————
The RC interpretation:
…. Well we used the word “Trick” to cover up the fact that we misrepresented a graph which is “fraud”, but we sorted all that out by redefining “Trick” to mean “Science” and fixed the “fraud” by using our “Science” to get Funding…..
You know it makes sense……:-)

J.Hansford
November 20, 2009 11:45 pm

“… I’ve just completed Mike’s Nature trick of adding in the real temps
to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) amd from
1961 for Keith’s to hide the decline.”
———————————————————–
…..and one way a person could construe RC’s excuses for this strange graphing “trick”.
…. Well they used the word “Trick” to cover up the fact that they misrepresented a graph which is “fraud”, but sorted all that out by redefining “Trick” to mean “Science” and fixed the “fraud” by using the “Science” to get Funding…..
You know it makes sense…..;-)

David Harper
November 21, 2009 12:29 am

ref 1258053464.txt
This is one I like…. read what Mann says in the post script
At 17:07 27/10/2009, Michael Mann wrote:
Hi Phil,
Thanks–we know that. The point is simply that if we want to talk about about a meaningful “2009” anomaly, every additional month that is available from which to calculate an annual mean makes the number more credible. We already have this for GISTEMP, but have been awaiting HadCRU to be able to do a more decisive update of the status of the disingenuous “globe is cooling” contrarian talking point,
mike
p.s. be a bit careful about what information you send to Andy and what emails you copy him in on. He’s not as predictable as we’d like

AlanG
November 21, 2009 1:05 am

It’s quite obvious from the emails and the posts at RC that there really is only one ‘team’. Don’t they understand that you don’t get to be your own judge and jury in this world?

AKD
November 21, 2009 1:06 am

Dear Anthony,
Pretty please retitle “Tips and Notes to WUWT” on upper right of blog to “Tips and Tricks to WUWT”.

Jack Simmons
November 21, 2009 1:37 am

Working on the hockey stick:

David Harper
November 21, 2009 1:53 am

And reading all of these blog entries (both here and on Real Climate and a few other places) there seems to be some confusion about what is acceptable conduct in science…… So I’d like to remind everybody of a quote from Carl Sagan…
“The suppression of uncomfortable ideas may be common place in politics or religion…. but it is not the way to knowledge… and there is no place for it in the endeavour of science”
That to me is the fundamental issue…. are these guys trying to suppress uncomfortable ideas?
I think they are and therefore, in my mind, they are not behaving as scientists.
As for whether or not they have committed offences under the law, these are matters that I would love to see tested in a court of law.

Martin Brumby
November 21, 2009 2:13 am

We need to focus on fundementals. Apart from the odd troll, everyone here will, for some time, have had a pretty good idea whether Phil Jones or Richard Lindzen is a more credible scientist. Or indeed whether or not RC is more reliable than CA or WUWT.
The important thing to focus on is the fact that the ‘scientific consensus’ is being used to support (ostensibly) a move from a ‘High Carbon’ to a ‘Low Carbon’ economy. And to do this as a matter of NOW, with great urgency, irrespective of how ‘robust’ the science is.
In fact there are some fairly good arguments in researching and in implementing ‘Low Carbon’ energy production when mature and commercially attractive alternatives (without ginormous subsidies) to burning fossil fuels become available.
But, in my book, the worst sin of Jones, Mann and the rest is that they have deliberately panicked the politicians and the media into the belief that this must be done NOW in order to save the planet. Mainly motivated by arrogance and the desire to keep their comfortable, very well paid jobs, lavish research funding, index linked pensions. And, of course the all expenses paid jollies to Tahiti.
Cooler heads in industry and finance – and some more intelligent politicians – may realise this but see enormous potential profits from the carbon trading scam. That and the chance to fulfil their ambition to set up an eco-fascist superstate, a glorified version of the EU, where the ‘Political Elite’ will be able to control the lives of all the rest of us, accountable to nobody.
In that sense, whilst Briffa, Jones and the rest think perhaps that Gordon Brown is just a pawn in their AGW game, the reality is that the ‘Team’ are actually pawns in a much bigger game.
And this game will cause incalculable damage to the real economy, plunge hundreds of thousands even deeper into fuel poverty and destroy hope for millions in the Third World who could be provided with clean water, affordable and reliable energy, education and health (and, eventually, good governance?) for a fraction of what is being proposed to ‘save the planet’.
I wish I believed, as many commentators do, that this hack (if it was a hack) will make much difference. I wish I believed that Jones would get his ass kicked, even behind closed doors. I wish they would be punished for their blatant & barefaced violations of FOI laws. But I doubt it will happen.
The powers that be are far more interested in closing ranks.

November 21, 2009 2:17 am

>>Here it is at the New York Times:
>> http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/21/science/earth/21climate.html?ref=science
Ouch. It does not look good for the AGW industry at all. The trouble with losing credibility, is that former friends start leaving in droves. Politicians, who were SO friendly yesterday, will not wish to shake hands with a pending legal case. Better stay on the sidelines until it all blows over.
Mr Mann and Hadcrut might find themselves rather lonely for the next months or two. It does not bode well for a good conference at Copenhagen.
.

November 21, 2009 2:37 am

I like this exchange – how to combat criticism from ‘deniers’.
Tim, Phil, Keef:
Because of the complexity of the arguments involved, to an uniformed observer it all might be viewed as just scientific nit-picking by “for”and “against” global warming proponents. However, if an “independent group” such as you guys at CRU could make a statement as to whether the M&M effort is truly an “audit”, and if they did it right, I think that would go a long way to defusing the issue.
If you are willing, a quick and forceful statement from The Distinguished CRU Boys would help quash further arguments, although here, at least, it is already quite out of control…..
Ray
Ray et al
… this whole process represents the most despicable example of slander and down right deliberate perversion of the scientific process , and bias (unverified) work being used to influence public perception and due political process. It is, however, essential that you (we) do not get caught up in the frenzy that these people are trying to generate, and that will more than likely lead to error on our part or some premature remarks that we might regret.
Keith
Guys,
So the verification RE for the “censored” NH mean reconstruction? -6.64
I think the case is really strong now!
What if were to eliminate the discussion of all the other technical details, and state more nicely that these series were effectively censored by their substitutions, and that by removing those series which they censored, I get a similar result, with a dismal RE.
Thoughts, comments? Thanks,
mike

http://www.anelegantchaos.org/cru/emails.php?eid=380
Endquote:
.
More like politics than science.

November 21, 2009 2:45 am

And lots of the newer emails are defending themselves against WUWT and CA. It just goes to show how much pressure these sites have put these people under.
http://www.anelegantchaos.org/cru/emails.php?eid=1022&filename=1254230232.txt
.

Jeff B.
November 21, 2009 3:04 am

Mike’s Nature is to Trick.

November 21, 2009 3:15 am

Quote:
I’m really sorry that you have to go through all this stuff, Phil. Next time I see Pat Michaels at a scientific meeting, I’ll be tempted to beat the crap out of him. Very tempted.
http://www.anelegantchaos.org/cru/emails.php?eid=1045&filename=1255100876.txt
How very scientific (Michaels is a skeptic.)
.

Jack Simmons
November 21, 2009 3:15 am

Bernie Madoff wanted to hide a decline too.
He also got away with it for years.

November 21, 2009 3:30 am

Quote:
And the issue of with-holding data is still a hot potato, one that affects both you and Keith (and Mann). Yes, there are reasons — but many *good* scientists appear to be unsympathetic to these. The trouble here is that with-holding data looks like hiding something, and hiding means (in some eyes) that it is bogus science that is being hidden. I think Keith needs to be very, very careful in how he handles this.
http://www.anelegantchaos.org/cru/emails.php?eid=1039&filename=1254756944.txt
Indeed he does.
As an aside, this looks like leaked data rather than a hack. A great deal of the information is very specific to McIntyre and WUWT, which shows an interest in the various debates about withholding data and Yamal trees. Unless, of course, the emails we have been given have been selected to include this very topic.
.

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