Breaking News Story: CRU has apparently been hacked – hundreds of files released

UPDATE: Response from CRU in interview with another website, see end of this post.

The details on this are still sketchy, we’ll probably never know what went on. But it appears that University of East Anglia Climate Research Unit has been hacked and many many files have been released by the hacker or person unknown.

UPDATED: Original image was for Met Office – corrected This image source: www.cru.uea.ac.uk

I’m currently traveling and writing this from an airport, but here is what I know so far:

An unknown person put postings on some climate skeptic websites that advertised an FTP file on a Russian FTP server, here is the message that was placed on the Air Vent today:

We feel that climate science is, in the current situation, too important to

be kept under wraps.

We hereby release a random selection of correspondence, code, and documents

The file was large, about 61 megabytes, containing hundreds of files.

It contained data, code, and emails from Phil Jones at CRU to and from many people.

I’ve seen the file, it appears to be genuine and from CRU. Others who have seen it concur- it appears genuine. There are so many files it appears unlikely that it is a hoax. The effort would be too great.

Here is some of the emails just posted at Climate Audit on this thread:

http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=7801#comments

I’ve redacted email addresses and direct phone numbers for the moment. The emails all have US public universities in the email addresses, making them public/FOIA actionable I believe.


From: Phil Jones

To: mann@vxxxxx.xxx

Subject: Fwd: John L. Daly dead

Date: Thu Jan 29 14:17:01 2004

From: Timo H‰meranta

To:

Subject: John L. Daly dead

Date: Thu, 29 Jan 2004 12:04:28 +0200

X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook, Build 10.0.4510

Importance: Normal

Mike,

In an odd way this is cheering news ! One other thing about the CC paper – just found

another email – is that McKittrick says it is standard practice in Econometrics journals

to give all the data and codes !! According to legal advice IPR overrides this.

Cheers

Phil

“It is with deep sadness that the Daly Family have to announce the sudden death of John

Daly.Condolences may be sent to John’s email account (daly@john-daly.com)

Reported with great sadness

Timo H‰meranta

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Timo H‰meranta, LL.M.

Moderator, Climatesceptics

Martinlaaksontie 42 B 9

01620 Vantaa

Finland, Member State of the European Union

Moderator: timohame@yxxxxx.xxx

Private: timo.hameranta@xxxxx.xx

Home page: [1]personal.inet.fi/koti/hameranta/climate.htm

Moderator of the discussion group “Sceptical Climate Science”

[2]groups.yahoo.com/group/climatesceptics

“To dwell only on horror scenarios of the future

shows only a lack of imagination”. (Kari Enqvist)

“If the facts change, I’ll change my opinion.

What do you do, Sir” (John Maynard Keynes)

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Prof. Phil Jones

Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0)xxxxxx

School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) xxxxxx

University of East Anglia

Norwich Email p.jones@xxx.xx.xx

NR4 7TJ

UK

—————————————————————————-

References

1. http://personal.inet.fi/koti/hameranta/climate.htm

2. http://groups.yahoo.com/group/climatesceptics


From: Phil Jones

To: ray bradley ,mann@xxxxx.xxx, mhughes@xxxx.xxx

Subject: Diagram for WMO Statement

Date: Tue, 16 Nov 1999 13:31:15 +0000

Cc: k.briffa@xxx.xx.xx,t.osborn@xxxx.xxx

Dear Ray, Mike and Malcolm,

Once Tim’s got a diagram here we’ll send that either later today or

first thing tomorrow.

I’ve just completed Mike’s Nature trick of adding in the real temps

to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) amd from

1961 for Keith’s to hide the decline. Mike’s series got the annual

land and marine values while the other two got April-Sept for NH land

N of 20N. The latter two are real for 1999, while the estimate for 1999

for NH combined is +0.44C wrt 61-90. The Global estimate for 1999 with

data through Oct is +0.35C cf. 0.57 for 1998.

Thanks for the comments, Ray.

Cheers

Phil

Prof. Phil Jones

Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) xxxxx

School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) xxxx

University of East Anglia

Norwich Email p.jones@xxxx.xxx

NR4 7TJ

UK

—————————————————————————-


From: Jonathan Overpeck

To: “Michael E. Mann”

Subject: letter to Senate

Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2003 16:49:31 -0700

Cc: Caspar M Ammann , Raymond Bradley , Keith Briffa , Tom Crowley , Malcolm Hughes , Phil Jones , mann@xxxxx.xxx, jto@xxxxx.xx.xxx, omichael@xxxxx.xxx, Tim Osborn , Kevin Trenberth , Tom Wigley

Hi all – I’m not too comfortable with this, and would rather not sign – at least not

without some real time to think it through and debate the issue. It is unprecedented and

political, and that worries me.

My vote would be that we don’t do this without a careful discussion first.

I think it would be more appropriate for the AGU or some other scientific org to do this –

e.g., in reaffirmation of the AGU statement (or whatever it’s called) on global climate

change.

Think about the next step – someone sends another letter to the Senators, then we respond,

then…

I’m not sure we want to go down this path. It would be much better for the AGU etc to do

it.

What are the precedents and outcomes of similar actions? I can imagine a special-interest

org or group doing this like all sorts of other political actions, but is it something for

scientists to do as individuals?

Just seems strange, and for that reason I’d advise against doing anything with out real

thought, and certainly a strong majority of co-authors in support.

Cheers, Peck

Dear fellow Eos co-authors,

Given the continued assault on the science of climate change by some on Capitol Hill,

Michael and I thought it would be worthwhile to send this letter to various members of

the U.S. Senate, accompanied by a copy of our Eos article.

Can we ask you to consider signing on with Michael and me (providing your preferred

title and affiliation). We would like to get this out ASAP.

Thanks in advance,

Michael M and Michael O

______________________________________________________________

Professor Michael E. Mann

Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall

University of Virginia

Charlottesville, VA 22903

_______________________________________________________________________

e-mail: mann@xxxxxx.xxx Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) xxx-xxxxx

http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml

Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:EOS.senate letter-final.doc (WDBN/MSWD) (00055FCF)

Jonathan T. Overpeck

Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth

Professor, Department of Geosciences

Mail and Fedex Address:

Institute for the Study of Planet Earth

715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor

University of Arizona

Tucson, AZ 85721

direct tel: +xxxx

fax: +1 520 792-8795

http://www.geo.arizona.edu/Faculty_Pages/Overpeck.J.html http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/


It appears that the proverbial Climate Science Cat is out of the bag.

Developing story – more later

UPDATE1: Steve McIntyre posted this on Climate Audit, I used a screen cap rtaher than direct link becuase CA is overloaded and slow at the moment.

UPDATE2: Response from CRU h/t to WUWT reader “Nev”

http://briefingroom.typepad.com/the_briefing_room/2009/11/hadleycru-says-leaked-data-is-real.html

The director of Britain’s leading Climate Research Unit, Phil Jones, has told Investigate magazine’s TGIF Edition tonight that his organization has been hacked, and the data flying all over the internet appears to be genuine.

In an exclusive interview, Jones told TGIF, “It was a hacker. We were aware of this about three or four days ago that someone had hacked into our system and taken and copied loads of data files and emails.”

“Have you alerted police”

“Not yet. We were not aware of what had been taken.”

Jones says he was first tipped off to the security breach by colleagues at the website RealClimate.

“Real Climate were given information, but took it down off their site and told me they would send it across to me. They didn’t do that. I only found out it had been released five minutes ago.”

TGIF asked Jones about the controversial email discussing “hiding the decline”, and Jones explained what he was trying to say….

UPDATE3: McIntyre has posted an article by Jean S at climateaudit.org which is terribly overloaded. We have mirrored it.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/20/mikes-nature-trick/


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Charles. U. Farley
November 26, 2009 2:45 pm

From FOIA.zip/documents/uea.ppt
Model not perfect so there are processes in real system but not in our model that could alter model response by an uncertain amount.
Places extra uncertainty on prediction variable in form of a variance.
W e o n l y k n o w t h e p r o b a b i l i t y t h a t a n y c o m b i n a t i o n o f p a r a m e t e r v a l u e s i s t h e b e s t – i n p u t m o d e l . B u t t h a t m e a n s w e n e e d m i l l i o n s o f m o d e l v a r i a n t s .
T h a t i s t o o e x p e n s i v e – c a n o n l y a f f o r d h u n d r e d s o f r u n s b u t t h e y h a v e t o s a m p l e d i n a w a y t h a t i s c o n s i s t e n t w i t h y o u r b e l i e f s a b o u t w h e r e t h e b e s t m o d e l i s &
A n d w e w a n t b e t t e r t o f o c u s o n b e t t e r q u a l i t y m o d e l v a r i a n t s s o n e e d s o m e w e i g h t i n g .
S e t o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l c l i m a t e m o d e l s a r e a l l t u n e d t o o b s e r v a t i o n s .
B u t t h e r e i s n o g u a r a n t e e t h e s e a r e t h e a c t u a l o p t i m a l m o d e l s.
O t h e r c h o i c e s o f v a l u e s f o r m o d e l i n p u t p a r a m e t e r s c o u l d h a v e p r o v i d e d e q u a l l y p l a u s i b l e s i m u l a t i o n s o f o b s e r v a t i o n s w h i l s t p r o v i d i n g a w i d e r a n g e o f r e s p o n s e s i n t h e f u t u r e.
S o t u n i n g c o u l d a f f e c t t h e d e c i s i o n s p l a n n e r s m a k e b a s e d o n c l i m a t e p r e d i c t i o n s.
F i n a l l y , t h e r e i s u n c e r t a i n t y i n t h e m o d e l s r e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f t h e t h e c l i m a t e s y s t e m . H e r e s t h e I P C C p l o t c o m p a r i n g d i f f e r e n t c l i m a t e m o d e l s – b u t a q u e s t i o n h e r e i s A r e s o m e m o d e l s b e t t e r t h a n o t h e r s ?
FOAI2009.zip/uea-tyndall-shell-memo
SHELL INTERNATIONAL
Mick Kelly and Aeree Kim (CRU, ENV) met with Robert Kleiburg (Shell International’s climate change team) on July 4th primarily to discuss access to Shell information as part of Aeree’s PhD study (our initiative) and broader collaboration through postgrad. student project placements (their initiative), but Robert was also interested in plans for the Tyndall Centre (TC). What ensued was necessarily a rather speculative discussion with the following points emerging.
Shell International would give serious consideration to what I referred to in the meeting as a ‘strategic partnership’ with the TC, broadly equivalent to a ‘flagship alliance’ in the TC proposal. A strategic partnership would involve not only the provision of funding but some (limited but genuine) role in setting the research agenda etc.
Shell’s interest is not in basic science. Any work they support must have a clear and immediate relevance to ‘real-world’ activities. They are particularly interested in emissions trading and CDM.
Robert seemed to be more interested in supporting overseas (developing world) than home/EU studentships, presumably because of the credit abroad and their involvement in CDM. (It is just possible this impression was partially due to the focus on Aeree’s work in the overall discussion but I doubt it.) It seems likely that any support for studentships would be on a case by case basis according to the particular project in question.
Finally, we agreed that we would propose a topic to this year’s MSc intake as a placement with Shell and see if any student expressed interest. If this comes off we can run it under the TC banner if it would help.
I would suggest that Robert and his boss are invited to the TC launch at the very least (assuming it will be an invite type affair). Question is how can we and who should take this a step further. Maybe a meeting at Shell with business liaison person, Mike H if time and myself if time? I’d like to/am happy to stay involved through the next stage but then will probably have to back off.
We didn’t cover the new renewable energy foundation.
Mick Kelly
11 September 2000

Carl Rooker
November 28, 2009 7:58 am

There have been statements that the word “trick” could be used in other ways than fraud. However, at the end of the statement attributed are the words “to hide the decline”.
I think that putting the context here proves the dishonesty of this certain individual.

FTM
November 28, 2009 4:02 pm

I read every word of every post attached to this article. There’s nothing that I can say that would add to the discussion. I will say though that the odds of recovering this situation are low. The people that stand to benifit from this fiasco are too well entrenched. To paraphrase algore when he says “the science is in and everyone agrees” the decision has been made and anyone that is relevant to the discussion is on board. We’re getting this “world government” like it or not. Your input is not required, your fate has been decided by your betters. It’ll be a lovely little war.

anonymouse
November 28, 2009 5:37 pm

The last thing to say from my point of view is this: Flood every single person on Capital Hill: Congressmen, Judges, President, Vice President: Flood them all with paper faxes and do it with a click of the mouse. This is a FREE SITE. You may donate if you CHOOSE to. Personally, I have. http://www.americanvoice.com
I have sent 10,000 plus faxes since I joined the group. Believe me, these people have my opinion. Send your today.

Climate Rhetoric Unit
November 30, 2009 4:03 pm

The science that these liars have manufactured through the manipulation and suppression of data will be used to ratify governmental policy in the form of the Copenhagen Treaty.
How many of you have read the Copenhagen pdf file? This control system which is going to result if the treaty is signed by everyone (and that it will most likely will be..) is actually going to fund itself using the carbon taxes, which will be imposed on the already heavily taxed populations.

MB
November 30, 2009 4:17 pm

Yes, an ed Milliband on C4 news tonight said that revenue raised from the UK (+ other “rich” nations) will be used to subsidize “development” in the poorer nations (e.g. Brazil). So there you have it. We are about to get yet another f***ing tax and we will not be the beneficiaries. This is global communism, Ed Milliband’s father was a marxist (look it up on wikipedia).

anonymouse
November 30, 2009 6:26 pm

This is clearly the plan to install a global rule over the world and destroy the Sovereignty of the United States all to the benefit of a small powerful elite group.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=4860344067427439443#

Ilforte
December 2, 2009 6:17 pm

Heh, I’m kinda late, but however. You guys make this issue of “Russian hacking” too complicated. Just who do you think we are, anthropomorphic drunken bears working for KGB, or what?
It’s completely believable that the whole project was exercised by an enthusiastic group of Russian geeks. Yes we have geeks, and they play WoW like all the geeks in this world do, and Russian society is not some militaristic system where everyone acts because of a command from a higher-up. We have imageboards like 4chan, too. And the most shocking fact is, we are no imbeciles! We can learn English to speak fluently, it’s not hard at all compared to our native language. I learned it by reading online comics, for example. It’s also studied in schools, but screw schools.
You are using the same old stereotype of an Evil Empire (Empire of Evil? I forgot), fearsome leader and hordes of vodka-powered minions. Our president (I mean the real one, not mr. bearman) knows this well and exploits it. But actually there’s very little of what the government controls in our society. It has no credit, no one goves a damn about what they say, and their attempts to look respectable suck. There are very few people in Russia who support government while not being part of it – probably 15% or so. They fake elections because people are too bored to go and vote. They’re all either wealthy gangsters from 90s or ex-KGB service people (dunno how to say) or just party relics and they’re not even hiding that. Our government joins all that shitty unprofitable global organisations, proving to be plain incompetent. And the scene where it has especially little influence is Internet.
There is no secret plot to it. Only irritation and standard hacker’s bravado.

Mike Ewing
December 2, 2009 6:29 pm

Ilforte (18:17:26) :
You just shattered my image of russia 😉 too be fair ive only known one russian… and he was a vodka skulling spetznez officer.

rob fletcher
December 3, 2009 2:08 am

I live in Australia where there is a climate change battle going on. Penny Wong the climate chance minister, Kevin Rudd, Prime minister and all there minions are now running scared at the moment through this e.mail, but they wont make that public. It started out as a slow walk now they are sprinting to the finish line at warp speed. It was only gonna take time before something like this happened, and i am glad it has come out just before Copenhagen.
The left right paradigm is quickly falling apart. What we need to do now is shout from the roof tops ” WE KNOW WHAT YOUR TRYING TO DO AND WE WILL EXPOSE YOU AND YOUR LIES “.
Al Gore has been caught so many times lying about climate change i dont think he even knows the truth anymore. We all know that when this is all over no one will be held accountable for the biggest fraud in the past 2 centuries. Treason this is what it is …………….

December 3, 2009 3:25 am

Nah, no one willtake resposibility when this all hits the fan. The line will be that “We were acting on the best scientific evidence available. It’s the fault of the scientists, not the politicians”.
When did a politician in the western world last take resposibility for a mistake or wrongdoing? Profumo?

December 3, 2009 3:29 am

Aaargh! Please fix the double typo on resposibility. Bloody keyboard.

Bohemond
December 3, 2009 6:54 am

Ilforte:
I don’t think anybody is denying the skill, much less the existence, of Russian hackers. Far from it. However, it looks increasingly like CRU wasn’t hacked by anybody, not even Brits: this release, based on what we know at present, looks more like a deliberate leak from inside.

MB
December 3, 2009 8:26 am

I don’t think this could be the work of Russian hackers. Russians are not clever enough, or technologically advanced enough. No, I don’t think a Ruskie could have done this kind of thing. Maybe an Indian, or perhaps Chinese, but a Russian! Ha. You must be joking.

Ilforte
December 3, 2009 8:51 am

Mike Ewing (18:29:44)
Oh, these spetsnaz guys. They’re everywhere.
MB (08:26:48)
Too fat and obvious. Funny though. If I were you, I’d speak of “Polish, probably Georgean or Ukrainian”, it’s more effective for pissing off stereotypical Russians.
Bohemond (06:54:15)
That makes much more sense, actually. CRU can’t be an evil corporation, it’s just another semi-scientifical bureaucratical organisation and its members must have contradicting interests, like in our RAN. This also means it’s possibly divided into fractions for some time already, and what we see now is a beginning of another stage in their conflict.
Maybe Tom Clancy will write a book about all this one day 🙂

anonymouse
December 4, 2009 8:14 am

Cap and Trade is the Plan to install the New One World Government. This is just the beginning, the money plan to do this. Research Congressman Larry McDonald. He was about to expose the Plans of the Power elite and they made sure he died. Korean Flight 007…

Tom Bright
December 4, 2009 10:55 am

The blue eagle flies at midnight. I can say no more.

John McClintock
December 5, 2009 9:44 am

December 5, 2009
In light of the recent Computer Hack at the University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK., the information now on the internet is quite interesting to say the least. It has served to call attention to the political involvement in science and the question remains, are we in fact having Global Warming?
At the heart of all this is the question, is global warming caused by humankind? Having studied the subject over the last two years, I can know that Carbon Dioxide is not a pollutant. However, I realize that there are many that have not come to the same conclusion.
In 1859 oil was discovered her in my home state of Pennsylvania and for a long time gasoline was a waste product until the invention of the internal combustion engine and we humans found a use for it and we all know that it has become a major driver of our economy.
The problem is how do we deal with CO2 if in fact it is a contributor to climate change. I don’t think by adding a tax is the answer and the idea of a Carbon Tax at this point with are economy in the gutter is not a smart move by politicians.
First, I want you to understand that I am not a scientist, I am not a environmentalist, but I am a advocate of alternative energy. I’m just a guy with a hight school education that is in love with science and technology. Two years ago, I did research on solar thermal energy and have since that time designed and build a solar water heating system that I have in operation here at my home. My motive was not the environmental issue of Global Warming, it was the high cost of energy. A Carbon tax increases the cost of energy!
I recently read an article Published by Steve Forbes, Forbes.com Special Report: Beyond Copenhagen, titled Eat my Carbon. What to do with the world’s fossial fuel pollution? Why not feed it to plants?
In my study and research on CO2, I do know that plants need CO2 to survive just as much as we humans and animals need oxygen to survive. Greenhouses growers increase CO2 to get better plant growth and it is known that plants grow better with a higher level of CO2 introduced in to the growing environment.
We just can’t switch off all our Coal Fired Electric Generating Plants or stop driving our automobiles. Well then what do we do? Just like in the early days when we found a use
for a waste produce, gasoline, through the invention of the internal combustion engine. We now can feed the CO2 to Green Growing Plants just like we have found a use in the timber business for waste wood, wood pellets, which by the way is carbon neutral. The rotting of wood in our forests produce CO2 and by using these products we contribute nothing to the natural environment.
The cost of pressurizing captured carbon dioxide and injecting it underground could be as much as much as $100 a ton. I can tell you that our farmers are paying way more than that for a ton of fertilize to get good crops.
Paul Woods, a chief executive officer of Algenol, a Florida start up that is developing an algae-to-ethanol technology. I know from my research three years ago on biofuels that that was a good possibility. I have some friends making there own fuel from used cooking oil. These guys are making enough biofuel to heat their homes and operate two trucks and two automobiles. Making fuel from what otherwise would be waste cooking oil makes a lot good sense. However, using virgin oil from food crops does not make good sense as has been demonstrated a few years back.
Their is all kinds of great technology out there, using algae is one of my favorites. Growing a non food crop for fuel while feed it CO2. We have just found a solution to the CO2 problem, if in fact it is a problem.
In light of the recent Computer Hack at the University of East Anglia,CRU, I seriously suggest that we back up and take a long look at the science, the research and the scientists that are called in to question . I want to hear more form both sides because of the cost involved in mitigating CO2 from out atmosphere. I think the american people deserve a closer look at the science and what went on at that university.
We are not as stupid as Al Gore thinks we are and it is because of his outrageous statements and his lack of science fact that motivates me to be a skeptic in this hole question on Global Warming.
John McClintock

Anyam
December 6, 2009 12:26 pm

It’s interesting reading the comments here.
Those who are attached to the idea of man-made global warming can’t bear the thought that this might be real and that the dogma to which they’ve clung might be bunk; those who are attached to their skepticism of man-made global warming are practically salivating with delight, like schoolyard children watching the humiliation of a classmate.
Fact is, whether you’re a skeptic or a proponent, the possibility that this is real should horrify and dismay anyone who champions science. The damage that it could do goes far beyond discrediting “AGW,” as people now appear to be calling it. Imagine the swath of people who will now automatically dismiss anything that comes from the scientific community; imagine the distrust, the loss of credibility that all scientists, even those who are honest and forthright, will experience.
I have long believed that, if we are truly entering a period of warming, that it’s more likely part of the natural cycle and cannot be stopped. The idea that climate change is caused by humanity strikes me as a form of hubris. But these emails do not make me happy in the slightest.

David Fairbairn
December 7, 2009 2:06 am

TEMPERATURE RISE PREDICTIONS – why they are unreliable and falsely represented as ‘settled science’.
The forecasts of temperature gain over the century produced by modelling can be shown to have two components, one having a high degree of predictability and the other being highly problematic.
The Greenhouse Gas theory is responsible for the first component and may be reasonably regarded as ‘settled science’. It states that an increase of CO2 in the atmosphere will generate a ‘forcing rate’, the direct result of which may be expected to produce a sufficient increase in the energy retained by the earth to cause a rise in surface temperature over the course of a century that we may identify as GG degrees C. This is the direct outcome of the operation of the Greenhouse Gas principle and has been calculated to be 1.2 degree C
This is the primary consequence. There are however secondary consequences, none of which are explicable by the Greenhouse Theory as such, but are dealt with by other branches of scientific knowledge. These secondary factors, of which there are potentially many, may be identified as x1,x2, x3 etc and the net sum of them all identified as X.
Each of these factors may either be of the nature of a feedback or may be an independent variable. A positive feedback arises where the factor is itself directly related to the increase in heat generated as GG.
Examining the models used by the IPCC shows that the value of X derived from these models lie within a range where X is at the low end 50% of GG and at the high end 500% of GG. These therefore yield predictions of warming within the century of between 1.8 and 6 degrees C.
These models, being constructed to yield predictions of the consequences of CO2 increase, deal only in X factors that are of the nature of positive feedback. It is this that accounts for the wide range of prediction, even though the models are very similar and the parameters introduced into them reflect a very much less extreme variation in the assessments made by scientists.
This can be readily shown by considering a positive feedback incidence of an X factor where its initial value, that is the secondary effect taken in isolation, is 40% of GG. This will now generate a tertiary effect of 16%, and a further effect at 4 removes of 6.4%. At 5 removes this becomes 2.5% and at 6 it is a further 1%.
As a result a model into which is fed a parameter assuming a 40% primary positive feedback will generate a total temperature gain of approximately two thirds. This acceleration of the predicted gain gathers momentum very quickly. As the original assumption approaches 100%, that is a positive feedback just doubling the temperature gain at the first pass, it causes the model to yield a prediction approaching infinity. It is of course this characteristic, which is mathematical and owes nothing to any empirical observation, that gives rise to talk of ‘runaway’ tipping points.
We can therefore see that the relatively modest differences in the assessment of feedback components introduced by different scientists yields results that verge on the bizarre. Those familiar with the use of modelling for business forecasting will be painfully familiar with this phenomenon. A modest tweaking of the input can give you almost any result you want, but unless the inputs and their variation are derived from hard, observable fact you are simply not dealing with the real world at all.
That is not of course to say that the X factor is unimportant. Quite the converse it is crucially significant. The question that has to be addressed is not whether the 1.2 degree C as derived from the application of the Greenhouse Gas theory is correct (it is sensible to assume that it is) but what is the net effect of the multiplicity of X factors which must then be applied to yield any kind of usable forecast.
The first point to be made is that, if we are wanting a real forecast and are not just playing modelling games, then those X factors which are NOT feedback elements but are independent must be given equal weighting. The exclusive concentration on the Greenhouse Gas theory, implicit in such models, means that all the other potential X factors are discounted. It is significant however that they have had to be brought back into the equation by the IPCC in order to explain why the temperature outcome of the last decade is so far adrift from that predicted by the models.
The second point is that the operation of the feedback x factors must be validated by empirical observation, both in terms of their quantitative effect and the reality of the causal linkage with the primary GG factor assumed when assigning them feedback status.
To describe the science of these assessments as in any way ‘settled’ is absurd given the immense complexity and metrication difficulties entailed.
If there is one overall ‘law’ of nature that deserves to be observed when confronted with such an enigma it has to be the law of entropy. It is the operation of this law that causes so much of the natural world to be constantly moving towards a state of equilibrium, recovering over time from disturbances to that state. As a general statement it can be asserted that nature just doesn’t do tipping points. Given a perturbation amounting over a century to the injection of incremental energy capable of yielding a 1.2 degree C warming in the atmosphere, it is more likely that the secondary and further effects will be of the nature of negative rather than positive feedback. We are certainly not entitled to assume either without having collected and analysed empirical evidence.
The IPCC emphatically does not have that evidence. It has fallen back on the device of seeking to carry over the degree of certainly reasonably attributable to the Greenhouse Gas theory in yielding the 1.2 degree C number to the estimation of the X factors then applied to generate the scary, and very wobbly, prediction of warming. This is thoroughly bad science.
At the heart of this aberration lies a semantic trick, all the more effective because, like a good card trick, it is so difficult to spot.
The amount of additional energy added to the earth’s total complement as identified as necessarily occurring through the operation of the Greenhouse Gas principle, must of necessity add to global temperature, that being the mean temperature of the globe. The issue now becomes one of distribution, that is how that energy becomes dispersed across the 5.974 x 1024 kg mass of the globe, and most particularly how much of it is retained in the form of a temperature gain in the 5.148 x 1018 kg mass of the atmosphere.
To obfuscate this issue the IPCC has adopted the practice of using the SAME WORDS to identify the temperature of the latter as the former. In both cases the term ‘global mean temperature’ is applied. This is readily demonstrable by examining the 26 words of the IPCC conclusion that uses the term to identify mean surface temperature, and uses it in the same way 14 times in the preceding more detailed chapter. It is impossible to derive scientific truth from such a blatant misuse and distortion of terminology. We here see the term identifying the entity to whose variation in temperature we can assign a degree of certainty ‘flipped’ to designate an entity that merits no such attribution of scientific likelihood let alone certainty.
The reality is that, as a consequence of a rise in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, we must expect over a century a gain in energy which, if remaining resident in the atmosphere, would cause a temperature rise of 1.2 degrees C. There are however both other unrelated factors that may cause the temperature to be higher or lower, and factors arising as secondary consequences of any temperature rise that may again act either to increase or decrease the resultant net effect. We do not currently have nearly enough scientific knowledge nor evidence to be able to make any confident prediction of the outcome.
David Fairbairn

David Fairbairn
December 7, 2009 2:15 am

Please note in the above comment the software of this site does not accommodate superscripts. Hence 10 to the power of 18 has printed as 1018 and 10 to the power of 24 as 1024.
DRF
[The easy convention is 10^24. Alternately, you can use HTML: sup and /sup [in arrow brackets, with the exponent between the two commands] to get 1024. ~dbstealey, moderator]

pusiffli
December 7, 2009 3:46 am

Incidentally, hacking servers and networks is a criminal offence, deemed a form of cyber-terrorisism, as the pending extradition to the US of the unfortunate Gary McKinnnon shows. It is odd that this parallel has not been drawn in the media, obvious as it is. The hack may have been done by an individual connected with climate-change denial or conspiracy-theory groups, yet the best equipped to selectively trawl specific individuals’ mail to order are the intelligence services, especially those of the UK, USA and Russia. The timing was perfect and the speed with which climate deniers used a few semantic
matters buried in thousands of documents in time for 10 days’ furore before Copenhagen remarkable.

supercritical
December 7, 2009 4:38 am

“…. yet the best equipped to selectively trawl specific individuals’ mail to order are the intelligence services, especially those of the UK, USA and Russia. The timing was perfect …..”
Wow!
Now why would they do that? Is it that Copenhagen was going to fail (note the Senate opposition) …. and so rather than the whole thing dying a death, a reason to defer has been created, …… “those pesky deniers to blame”?
Note that the leak/hack/emanation from CRU does not contain anything definitive … Odd, that. A ‘Dodgy Dossier’ one might say?
Stand by for another Carbon Tax attempt starting in about 6 months. The thing is too politically valuable. Here are the voter-groups that it would benefit;
– Huge new cashflows benefit public employees and welfare recipients
– Another lever of coercive state power benefits ‘Greens’, ex-socialists & co.
– Increases cost of imports, and neutralises the competitive cost-advantages of developing countries, and their artifical exchange-rate ploy.
– Improves domestic employment prospects and so appeals to Unions
– Improves small business opportunities, and so appeals to the commercial right
– City, Banks, aware of massive trading opportunities.
-Big Oil in favour, as any end-user price increase is sure to give opportunities to increase profitability and also reduces risks via increased leverage on Governments.
So pretty-much a huge vote-winner from a political POV. And, as they control the best hackers in the world, why not?
PS did anybody note the comment to the effect that the IPCC can be ditched as it has done its work and is now dispensible?

bill gaerttner
December 7, 2009 5:21 am

Global Warming is a tool by by which the leftwingers everywhere can justify taxing everyone, including the the poor which they claim they are trying to help.

December 7, 2009 5:28 am

pusiffli (03:46:42),
There is not one iota of evidence that an outside hacker or government posted the emails and code. Common sense indicates that an insider posted them.
The last leaked email is dated one day before CRU made its decision to refuse to comply with the FOI request. Clearly, the emails and data had been aggregated to comply with FOIA, and when the decision was made to deny the FOI request, an insider leaked a copy of the code and emails. No other scenario make sense.
What would be the motivation for an outside hacker to expend so much time and effort to select and edit just those particular emails, and the Harry code? If someone had hacked CRU, they would have simply dumped everything online. Certainly what was leaked is only a small fraction of what was on the CRU servers.
The constant drumbeat about mysterious, un-named hackers, Russians, etc. is classic misdirection: “Hey, look over there! It’s a hacker! Probably a Russian hacker, everyone knows about those Russian hackers.” But where is the evidence? Who are the suspects? Answer: they only exist in the talking points of the lock-step media, which has apparently done no investigation, but rather, parrots what the CRU people want them to say.
No shoe leather has been expended by reporters in investigating the obvious fraud and collusion of the tight knit clique of scientists who began their careers as nerds, but now have rock star status and $millions shoveled into their pockets by Leftist foundations, NGOs and quangos, all with a heavy AGW emphasis. They are clearly bought and paid for, and the taxpayers who pay their otherwise modest salaries can’t compete with the spectacular amounts delivered by organizations buying an AGW agenda.
The inside CRU whistleblower simply ran the data through the Russian server, which effectively erased its origin. Anything else is rank speculation, endlessly repeated in order to take the spotlight off of the damning emails and coder comments showing the fraud being perpetrated on the public by the same climate scientists who tightly control the climate peer review process.
If the hacker speculation isn’t pure fantasy, then who is the suspect? Name one. Show us a “hacker” suspect. In fact, there is zero credible evidence that this leak was done by anyone from outside the organization.
Anyone reading the emails, and watching the finger pointing and suspicion among the CRU, Penn State and other actors can see that people like Mann throw their weight around, and tactlessly put others in their place with no regard for their feelings or opinions. A mature scientist being slapped down by a 30-something like Mann might not publicly protest at the time. But karmic payback is a bitch.
Is it any wonder that one of probably a dozen or more people involved in collating and preparing to comply with the FOI request, including other scientists, postdocs, paralegals, technicians, secretaries and lawyers, might have a personal motive to disclose the information when it became apparent that yet another FOI request was going to be stonewalled?
With Copenhagen approaching, someone with hurt feelings and a DVD of the data, or one of the increasingly rare individuals with old time ethics, saw the opportunity to show the world the rampant corruption and dishonesty, fueled by money and status, in what passes for mainstream climate science and climate peer review.
The new talking points about hackers, with frantic arm-waving about supposed attempted break-ins are nothing but unfounded speculation; baseless stories specifically designed to get people talk about a “what if” scenario, in order to preempt discussion regarding the strong evidence of corruption contained in the leaked information.
Keep motive in mind when you read about “what if” hacker speculation. They are simply trying to deceive the public by avoiding discussion of the real crime: deliberately defrauding the taxpayers by following an agenda set by outside organizations funneling big bucks into these climate scientists’ pockets, rather than doing the unbiased job that the public pays them to do.

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