UPDATE: Response from CRU in interview with another website, see end of this post.
The details on this are still sketchy, we’ll probably never know what went on. But it appears that University of East Anglia Climate Research Unit has been hacked and many many files have been released by the hacker or person unknown.

UPDATED: Original image was for Met Office – corrected This image source: www.cru.uea.ac.uk
I’m currently traveling and writing this from an airport, but here is what I know so far:
An unknown person put postings on some climate skeptic websites that advertised an FTP file on a Russian FTP server, here is the message that was placed on the Air Vent today:
We feel that climate science is, in the current situation, too important to
be kept under wraps.
We hereby release a random selection of correspondence, code, and documents
The file was large, about 61 megabytes, containing hundreds of files.
It contained data, code, and emails from Phil Jones at CRU to and from many people.
I’ve seen the file, it appears to be genuine and from CRU. Others who have seen it concur- it appears genuine. There are so many files it appears unlikely that it is a hoax. The effort would be too great.
Here is some of the emails just posted at Climate Audit on this thread:
http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=7801#comments
I’ve redacted email addresses and direct phone numbers for the moment. The emails all have US public universities in the email addresses, making them public/FOIA actionable I believe.
From: Phil Jones
To: mann@vxxxxx.xxx
Subject: Fwd: John L. Daly dead
Date: Thu Jan 29 14:17:01 2004
From: Timo H‰meranta
To:
Subject: John L. Daly dead
Date: Thu, 29 Jan 2004 12:04:28 +0200
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook, Build 10.0.4510
Importance: Normal
Mike,
In an odd way this is cheering news ! One other thing about the CC paper – just found
another email – is that McKittrick says it is standard practice in Econometrics journals
to give all the data and codes !! According to legal advice IPR overrides this.
Cheers
Phil
“It is with deep sadness that the Daly Family have to announce the sudden death of John
Daly.Condolences may be sent to John’s email account (daly@john-daly.com)
“
Reported with great sadness
Timo H‰meranta
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Timo H‰meranta, LL.M.
Moderator, Climatesceptics
Martinlaaksontie 42 B 9
01620 Vantaa
Finland, Member State of the European Union
Moderator: timohame@yxxxxx.xxx
Private: timo.hameranta@xxxxx.xx
Home page: [1]personal.inet.fi/koti/hameranta/climate.htm
Moderator of the discussion group “Sceptical Climate Science”
[2]groups.yahoo.com/group/climatesceptics
“To dwell only on horror scenarios of the future
shows only a lack of imagination”. (Kari Enqvist)
“If the facts change, I’ll change my opinion.
What do you do, Sir” (John Maynard Keynes)
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0)xxxxxx
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) xxxxxx
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email p.jones@xxx.xx.xx
NR4 7TJ
UK
—————————————————————————-
References
1. http://personal.inet.fi/koti/hameranta/climate.htm
2. http://groups.yahoo.com/group/climatesceptics
From: Phil Jones
To: ray bradley ,mann@xxxxx.xxx, mhughes@xxxx.xxx
Subject: Diagram for WMO Statement
Date: Tue, 16 Nov 1999 13:31:15 +0000
Cc: k.briffa@xxx.xx.xx,t.osborn@xxxx.xxx
Dear Ray, Mike and Malcolm,
Once Tim’s got a diagram here we’ll send that either later today or
first thing tomorrow.
I’ve just completed Mike’s Nature trick of adding in the real temps
to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) amd from
1961 for Keith’s to hide the decline. Mike’s series got the annual
land and marine values while the other two got April-Sept for NH land
N of 20N. The latter two are real for 1999, while the estimate for 1999
for NH combined is +0.44C wrt 61-90. The Global estimate for 1999 with
data through Oct is +0.35C cf. 0.57 for 1998.
Thanks for the comments, Ray.
Cheers
Phil
Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) xxxxx
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) xxxx
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email p.jones@xxxx.xxx
NR4 7TJ
UK
—————————————————————————-
From: Jonathan Overpeck
To: “Michael E. Mann”
Subject: letter to Senate
Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2003 16:49:31 -0700
Cc: Caspar M Ammann , Raymond Bradley , Keith Briffa , Tom Crowley , Malcolm Hughes , Phil Jones , mann@xxxxx.xxx, jto@xxxxx.xx.xxx, omichael@xxxxx.xxx, Tim Osborn , Kevin Trenberth , Tom Wigley
Hi all – I’m not too comfortable with this, and would rather not sign – at least not
without some real time to think it through and debate the issue. It is unprecedented and
political, and that worries me.
My vote would be that we don’t do this without a careful discussion first.
I think it would be more appropriate for the AGU or some other scientific org to do this –
e.g., in reaffirmation of the AGU statement (or whatever it’s called) on global climate
change.
Think about the next step – someone sends another letter to the Senators, then we respond,
then…
I’m not sure we want to go down this path. It would be much better for the AGU etc to do
it.
What are the precedents and outcomes of similar actions? I can imagine a special-interest
org or group doing this like all sorts of other political actions, but is it something for
scientists to do as individuals?
Just seems strange, and for that reason I’d advise against doing anything with out real
thought, and certainly a strong majority of co-authors in support.
Cheers, Peck
Dear fellow Eos co-authors,
Given the continued assault on the science of climate change by some on Capitol Hill,
Michael and I thought it would be worthwhile to send this letter to various members of
the U.S. Senate, accompanied by a copy of our Eos article.
Can we ask you to consider signing on with Michael and me (providing your preferred
title and affiliation). We would like to get this out ASAP.
Thanks in advance,
Michael M and Michael O
______________________________________________________________
Professor Michael E. Mann
Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall
University of Virginia
Charlottesville, VA 22903
_______________________________________________________________________
e-mail: mann@xxxxxx.xxx Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) xxx-xxxxx
http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml
Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:EOS.senate letter-final.doc (WDBN/MSWD) (00055FCF)
–
Jonathan T. Overpeck
Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
Professor, Department of Geosciences
Mail and Fedex Address:
Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor
University of Arizona
Tucson, AZ 85721
direct tel: +xxxx
fax: +1 520 792-8795
http://www.geo.arizona.edu/Faculty_Pages/Overpeck.J.html http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/
It appears that the proverbial Climate Science Cat is out of the bag.
Developing story – more later
UPDATE1: Steve McIntyre posted this on Climate Audit, I used a screen cap rtaher than direct link becuase CA is overloaded and slow at the moment.

UPDATE2: Response from CRU h/t to WUWT reader “Nev”
http://briefingroom.typepad.com/the_briefing_room/2009/11/hadleycru-says-leaked-data-is-real.html
The director of Britain’s leading Climate Research Unit, Phil Jones, has told Investigate magazine’s TGIF Edition tonight that his organization has been hacked, and the data flying all over the internet appears to be genuine.
In an exclusive interview, Jones told TGIF, “It was a hacker. We were aware of this about three or four days ago that someone had hacked into our system and taken and copied loads of data files and emails.”
“Have you alerted police”
“Not yet. We were not aware of what had been taken.”
Jones says he was first tipped off to the security breach by colleagues at the website RealClimate.
“Real Climate were given information, but took it down off their site and told me they would send it across to me. They didn’t do that. I only found out it had been released five minutes ago.”
TGIF asked Jones about the controversial email discussing “hiding the decline”, and Jones explained what he was trying to say….
UPDATE3: McIntyre has posted an article by Jean S at climateaudit.org which is terribly overloaded. We have mirrored it.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/20/mikes-nature-trick/
Sponsored IT training links:
Improve 646-205 exam score up to 100% using 642-813 dumps and 642-902 mock test.
@ur momisugly Phil — “Ah, so it’s OK to commit an offence, so long as your chances of getting caught are minimal? Interesting legal standpoint.”
Cut the crap, Phil. Purloined or not, the information is now in the public domain and is NEWS. Worldwide NEWS.
Suppose you libel me in a private written communication with X. X puts your letter in his safe. Ten years later a burglar steals the safe’s contents. Going through his swag he comes upon your letter, and just for fun, anonymously forwards it back to me. I sue you for your libel. Will you say , “But my private letter was stolen!” In the US, at least, you would get nowhere.
McIntyre and many others were maligned in those emails. They may not be able to sue for libel, having broadcast the emails, but are you saying they have to keep quiet and let Jones et al’s maligning and undercutting them remain a secret????
If so, that’s an “interesting legal standpoint”.
Nigel Jones (08:27:32) ::
“They are priests guarding the secrets of priesthood. They’re certainly not confident of their position, or they would have allowed open scrutiny. They’re now in a position where they can’t say they’re wrong, or even that they are not sure, because the movement demands absolute certainty from them.
So, it wasn’t a huge, deliberate conspiracy, but because they’re not confident of their position, they’re forced to behave conspiratorially. At least, they see a need for confidentiality which wouldn’t be there if if their results could be openly examined and pass any reasonable test.”
The priesthood part I agree with. Well put. But the totality of the messages–and their ruthlessness in stiffing requests for information and stamping out dissent– leaves me feeling they KNEW they were engaged in a conspiracy.
They remind me more of the grinning High Muckymuck atop the pyramid in “Apocalypto”, strutting like Mussolini and whipping the crowd into a frenzy as he summons, then magically dispels, a solar eclipse.
Meanwhile some poor bastard behind him is getting his heart cut out.
http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fpcomment/archive/2009/11/20/lawrence-solomon-what-she-didn-t-ask.aspx
FOI2009/FOIA/documents/Fisher.txt
“I will send you the time series you need in a minute for the Central
west Greenland Stack…
And some other bits and pieces,,, The NGRIP record has the trend in it
that is no doubt closer to the truth for the fixed elevation temperature
history. But even there one could need a correction for elevation
change. The elevation corrected south GRIP Holocene has a very strong
negative delta trend in it and I expect there should be some correction
done to the north GRIP record too,, eventually I think they should all
come out looking like our records from Northern Canada. Now at least
ice core records have some low frequencies to correct… not like your
bloody trees that can not remember one century to the next,,,
(alderheimers )”
.
.
.
Fritz Koerner and I down to do a chapter in the book too I think,if
its the same book ,but its not due for quite a while,,,
David
Keith Briffa wrote:
>
> Dave
> I am currently working with Ray Bradley and others to produce a chapter for
> a PAGES book . Our chapter is concerned with the climate of the last 1000
> years and I am currently putting together a Figure and text concerned with
> the circum North Atlantic area. I wondered if you had , in an easily
> plotable form )i.e. spreadshhet-like numbers with real dates ) the stacked
> record – or whether you considered just plotting the GRIP?GISP mean was
> appropriate ? In a paper by Hammer , the north and south GRIP records (O18)
> are different – with a negative trend through the Holocene in the north and
> a recent “warming”, but neither at summit. I have restricted space so what
> is best to plot .
> cheers
> Keith
>
.
.
.
I was worried for a minute there, but it looks like Fenton is finally on the job.
Overtime, just in time for Christmas!
Still, it’s a little weak. What were the instructions? Focus only on the “trick” post? Threaten legal action? Concentrate on the “theft” meme that, I’d guess, was the first part of the cover-up anyway?
Pick it up, boys, put your backs into it – we can barely hear you!
Shurley Knot (20:14:58) :
“Hello editors, this page is too long! Please promote Phil Clarke’s thorough debunking at 14:58:30 to its own post, where it belongs, so that we may continue to have this most excellent discussion.”
I agree. It makes some good points–we shouldn’t overstate our case. The rest of it deserves extended rebuttal.
http://market-ticker.org/archives/1651-Global-Warming-SCAM-A-Further-Look.html
Results 1 – 10 of about 1,330,000 for AR4.
4th assessment report of the IPCC published in 2007
As some posties have suggested, I too feel this is an insidde job. Disgruntled employee, or some sort of rouse to fool eveyone before Copenghagen. Who know.
Here is a post from Real Climate… Check out Gavin Goebells response… he’d wanna be careful…. accessory after the fact maybe….
———————————————————-
What appalled me, if it turns out to be true, was an email purported to be from Phil Jones to Mike Mann where the archive shows “Jones” wrote on 2/2/2005, “The two MMs have been after the CRU station data for years. If they ever hear there is a Freedom of Information Act now in the UK, I think I’ll delete the file rather than send to anyone.”
If proven to be true, that goes far beyond deleting emails as a crime against science, and perhaps a criminal act as well. I certainly cannot feel comfortable with Dr. Jones being in a position of responsibility where he could actually carry out that threat unless he disavows that email as being something he actually wrote.
[Response: It is obviously not meant seriously, but that is hard to discern from little snippets like this. – gavin]
It’s pretty clear after reading Phil Jones’ post that he is a sympathiser with the fraud.
It is this simple Phil… If these guys are so stupid to write these types of emails and let them get out then how can we believe them… particularly when they won’t let the data out.
Get over it Phil, they have been nailed and you are sticking up for them. Are you part of the solution or part of the problem…..
Climate Mafia
Prince Alexander a true “Global Player” disqualifies himself to be the future King of the Netherlands.
Maybe this speech at the Energy Efficiency and Sustainability, during the official State Visit to Mexico, November 4th 2009 is why the Dutch MSM is avoiding any reporting about the current Climate Scam.
For those who ask the question how the fraudulent climate scientists are connected with the political elite this is a picture perfect example.
The current Queen has a seat in the Club of Rome and they are “embedded” within the United Nations. The Globalists are everywhere.
Your Excellencies, ladies and gentlemen,
First, I would like to thank all of you for participating in today’s seminar. I would also like to extend a special word of thanks to our Mexican hosts. It is an honour to be here today. In a way, this seminar shows just how far we have come on our way to a new, low-carbon energy future. New technology, new partnerships, a truly global approach to the problem of climate change: this is what I see emerging. We have also measured – as far as we could – the distance we still have to go. Let’s take encouragement from the fact that we are on this road together, and that we are indeed moving ahead. Energy efficiency is an issue that is particularly close to my heart. There are several reasons for that.
First of all, it is a subject that touches upon our daily lives. In order to be more energy-efficient, we must critically re-appraise how we live and the choices we make. Everybody needs to be aware of the extreme effects of climate change and the urgency with which we must deal with them. And everybody needs to be involved in finding sustainable solutions. This, I believe, is crucial to bringing about positive change: a low carbon economy should start at grass-roots level.
Second, energy efficiency is about our production methods. How we deal, or fail to deal, with our planet’s mineral reserves. Precious natural resources merit careful treatment. We need to be in awe of nature, not see it as our right to abuse it. That is a basic starting point.
Mexican history can teach us a lesson here. As we now find ourselves in the one-time capital of the mighty Aztec empire, perhaps we can spend a few moments taking a closer look at the Aztecs, the true ‘children of the sun’. Aztec culture is about respecting and revering nature. The famous Aztec pyramids of the sun and moon in Teotihuacan still attract thousands and thousands of tourists every year. The Queen, my wife and I look forward to visiting them on Friday. The Aztecs built their pyramids in order to pay tribute to their gods, the sun god in particular. Their message still rings true: we depend on nature, not the other way round. We depend on the sun as it is the one and only source of energy that makes our life on earth possible. Likewise, we depend on the unique atmosphere of this planet to protect us from the very harmful effects of that same sun. We have to stop this vital shield’s gradual degradation.
Maybe the Aztecs were light-years ahead of us in realising that the sun is the only source of energy and that all other sources like fossil, hydro, wind or bio energy are mere derivatives. Maybe they were telling us to focus on the sun and to join forces in making solar energy so efficient that we can use it to solve all our energy requirements. Every 30 minutes the earth absorbs enough light to meet the world’s energy needs for a year! Every 30 minutes! If only we could harvest it!
So while we are rightly looking for methods to reduce emissions in the short and medium term that have a distinct immediate effect on the pace of climate change, like Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), we should never lose sight of the genuine long-term solutions to our energy problems. As I have already pointed out, our only source of energy is the sun. The rest are derivatives. So solar energy has the brightest future. And although it will take decades or even centuries before solar is our main source of energy, it is of the greatest importance to all future generations that we start conserving the best catchment areas, the world’s deserts. Many regard deserts as a barren and hostile environment. In fact, they are a precious source of life, which we should embrace and protect for the common good. The circle of deserts surrounding the globe presents us with wonderful opportunities for both generating and transmitting solar energy.
Large-scale solar plants in deserts, connected to a cross-border or even intercontinental grid, are a fundamental solution for sustainable energy supplies after 2050. As an interesting side-effect – and of great benefit to the local population – heat from the power-generation process may be used to desalinate seawater or to generate cooling. So heat and water stress, now almost synonymous with deserts, can partly be solved, while mitigating the effects of climate change.
Although this solution may sound costly, scaling it up will make it a more profitable business than fossil energy. The point is, if we do not approach energy as a long-term investment, we will end up paying much higher bills.
So, ladies and gentlemen, we know the technology is there. Now we need the political will and the right approach to investment to achieve this fundamental transition towards a new energy system. Investments in sustainable solutions make our communities healthier, our planet cleaner, our economies stronger and our future brighter. Let us look beyond the current financial and economic crisis and build the foundations of a sustainable future. As a result of this crisis, billions of dollars of public spending are needed to bail out our economies and regenerate economic growth. If spent wisely on sustainable solutions, these investments will also contribute towards rescuing our planet. We owe this to our children and future generations.
The COP 15 conference which will be held in Copenhagen in December is the ideal opportunity to prove that we understand the urgency of the threats that face those future generations. The current generation is the only one that can help mitigate them. We have the knowledge and the means. Let us show the world we have the courage to take bold and necessary steps.
Let us make sure those future generations can be proud of us. Let us not go down in history as yet another generation that could have acted, but chose not to.
In a way, Mexico and the Netherlands are ‘natural’ partners in the field of energy. Mexico produces oil, the Netherlands produces gas, and we are both working towards a sustainable energy future. The Memorandum of Understanding which is about to be signed points the way ahead. We are guided by shared ambitions and work in the same spirit. Working together in a field as important as energy policy will benefit our two countries, as well as the world at large. We can and must make sure that the world acts together. Only then can Copenhagen be successful.
To make Copenhagen a success, we need drastic emission reductions, accepted by all nations. Do we achieve that through negative or positive strategies? Should we only focus on saying no or could we take a different approach? Should we allow everybody to emit as much as they want and then tax them so heavily under the ‘polluter pays’ principle that they make greater reductions collectively than through an approach that limits emissions? With those kind of financial incentives the private sector will gladly provide us with technologies that lead to huge emission reductions. I gladly leave it up to the delegates of COP 15 to make the right decisions and, if necessary, to finalize the treaty here in Mexico next year.
Let me conclude by giving you a Mexican proverb. “Cámaron que se duerme se lo lleva la chingada”, or in English: “a shrimp that sleeps gets carried by the tide.” Right now, strong currents are trying to pull us along, leading us to a future of energy scarcity, rising sea level and increasing pollution. Let’s wake up, let’s turn the tide and move in a different direction. Let’s set an example to the rest of the world. I am sure that this seminar, with its plans, ideas and expertise on energy efficiency, will be a source of inspiration to all of you.
Thank you again for sharing your ideas with us. Thank you for being here.
Also watch the Prime Minister Balkenende here:
The Dutch are left in the dark about any scheme from energy rationing to Global Government. This used to be one of the most open and democratic countries in the World.
so how about this little gem… has anyone posted this yet?
Mick Kelly and Aeree Kim (CRU, ENV) met with Robert Kleiburg (Shell International’s climate change team) on July 4th primarily to discuss access to Shell information as part of Aeree’s PhD study (our initiative) and broader collaboration through postgrad. student project placements (their initiative), but Robert was also interested in plans for the Tyndall Centre (TC). What ensued was necessarily a rather speculative discussion with the following points emerging.
1.Shell International would give serious consideration to what I referred to in the meeting as a ‘strategic partnership’ with the TC, broadly equivalent to a ‘flagship alliance’ in the TC proposal. A strategic partnership would involve not only the provision of funding but some (limited but genuine) role in setting the research agenda etc.
2.Shell’s interest is not in basic science. Any work they support must have a clear and immediate relevance to ‘real-world’ activities. They are particularly interested in emissions trading and CDM.
there it is, clear as void. company gives money to scientist, scientist fudges data for company.
0927145311.txt
Clearly, the science is far from decided upon………
From: Tom Wigley
To: Mike Hulme
Subject: Re: CO2 concentrations
Date: Wed, 19 May 1999 16:21:51 -0600 (MDT)
Cc: Mike MacCracken
Dear Mike,
Yes, I am aware of the confusion surrounding what the Hadley Centre did
and why. It is even messier than you realize. I have forcing data sets
(more than one!) from Jonathon Gregory that differ from the numbers you
gave in your email!! The Hadley people have clearly screwed things up,
but their “errors” don’t really matter given all of the uncertainties. I
didn’t mention this because I thought that opening up that can of worms
would confuse people even more.
In my view (trying to keep things as simple as possible), the key points
are these:
(1) The HadCM2 run purports to be IS92a, and it is a good approximation
to this.
(2) Their use of 1% compounded for CO2 *is* a reasonable approximation to
the IS92a GHG forcing (which, itself, is uncertain).
(3) The climate model output is also uncertain.
(4) The pure CO2 input to IS92a is what I have distributed from the Bern
model.
(5) Hence, the best and simplest combination is to use HadCM2 climate
output with these (point (4)) *a priori* defined “pure” CO2 concentrations
for IS92a.
On Wed, 19 May 1999, Mike Hulme wrote:
> Tom,
>
> Thanks for clarifying your thinking on this.
>
> I still have a problem with HadCM2 forcing and making sense of what Hadley
> have published, esp. the numbers in the Feb. 1997 J.Climate paper by
> Mitchell and Johns. There, they make it clear that the model was presented
> with CO2-equiv. rising from 473ppmv in 1990 to 1414ppmv in 2100, i.e., a 1%
> p.a. increase. This *seems* precise and unambiguous, so I don’t think they
> do adjust the CO2-equiv. growth ratio (C2100/C1990) to 3.127 (i.e., about
> 1.05% p.a.) as you suggest.
>
> This concentration scenario yielded a 1990-2100 model forcing of 6.5Wm-2
> (sic), “close to that reported by Mitchell and Gregory in 1992” [Mitchell
> and Johns, 1997] using STUGE (my estimate for that is about 6.2Wm-2). Both
> of these are quite a bit higher than the 5.8Wm-2 forcing in IPCC SAR for
> IS92a. With this (apparently) higher forcing, I reasoned that all else
> being equal, the actual CO2 concentrations that are consistent with HadCM2
> should also be *higher* that those cited in IPCC SAR and hence we could not
> just use the CO2 concentrations from MAGICC (or the Bern model). Hence my
> somewhat higher CO2 estimates of 790ppmv by 2100 were arrived at by using:
>
> pCO2 = 279ppmv * (exp(F/(3.47/ln(2))))) where F is the proportion in
> MAGICC of total forcing due to CO2 alone for IS92a.
>
> The Mitchell/Johns J.Climate paper is confusing, however, because it also
> presents results in their Table 1 which shows a 1990-2100 HadCM2 forcing of
> only 5.5Wm-2 (sic), a value that relates to their text-cited value of
> 6.5Wm-2 only by using DQ of 5.05Wm-2 (i.e., the sensitivity of HadCM2)
> rather than DQ = 6.3Wm-2. Yet the text of the paper continues to imply the
> HadCM2 forcing is ‘12% higher’ than Kattenburg, rather than 5% lower.
>
> The bottom line … the IS92a SAR forcing of 5.758Wm-2 and DQ of 6.3Wm-2
> only yields a CO2-equiv. growth rate of just over 0.8% p.a., rising to
> nearly 0.9% p.a. if the HadCM2 DQ of 5.05Wm-2 is used. These are still
> some way short of 1% p.a.
>
> Regards,
>
> Mike
>
> p.s. this is now more a matter for my own curiousity since I agree that for
> most assessment purposes the Wigley/Joos numbers are the best to use.
>
> At 15:36 18/05/99 -0600, you wrote:
> >Dear all,
> >
> >I’ve just read the emails of May 14 onwards regarding CO2. I must say
> >that I am stunned by the confusion that surrounds this issue.
> >Basically, I and MacCracken are *right* and Felzer, Schimel and (to a
> >lesser extent) Hulme are *wrong*. There is absolutely, categorically no
> >doubt about this. Let me explain.
> >
> >(1) The Hadley Centre run is meant to simulate the climate change
> >consequences of the full IS92a emissions scenario.
> >
> >(2) In this scenario, there are the following concentration and forcing
> >changes over 1990-2100:
> > Item C(2100) DQ(1990-2100)
> > CO2 708 4.350
> > CH4 3470 0.574
> > N2O 414 0.368
> > Halos 0.315
> > TropO3 0.151
> > —————————–
> > GHGs 5.758
> > SO4 (dir) -0.284
> > SO4 (indir) -0.370
> > —————————–
> > TOTAL 5.104
> >
> >These are the numbers I used in Ch. 6 of the SAR. They do not agree
> >precisely with numbers in Ch. 2, because I used the models and formulae
> >embedded in MAGICC. The differences between Ch. 2 and Ch. 6 are
> >irrelevant to the present issue.
> >
> >(3) How does one simulate the combined effects of all the GHGs in a
> >climate model that only has CO2? The standard way is to take the GHG
> >radiative forcing (ending in 5.758W/m**2 in 2100 in this case) and
> >convert this to *equivalent* CO2 concentration changes. If one uses
> >the old (IPCC90) forcing formula for CO2 (which is what was used in the
> >SAR), viz DQ=6.3 ln(C/C0), then C(2100)/C(1990) is 2.494. Note that the
> >1% compounded change would be C(2100)/C(1990)=(1.01)**110=2.988. Thus,
> >1% compounded CO2 gives roughly the correct *forcing*.
> >
> >NOTE THAT THE ACTUAL CO2 CHANGES ARE *NOT* THE CO2 CHANGES USED IN THE
> >MODEL. THE MODEL USES ARTIFICIAL CO2 CHANGES, SCALED UP TO ACCOUNT FOR
> >FORCING FROM OTHER GHGs.
> >
> >NOTE THAT THE ACTUAL CO2 CHANGE IS FROM 354ppmv IN 1990 to
> >708ppmv IN 2100. THIS IS *NOT* A 1% COMPOUNDED INCREASE.
> >
> >NOTE, FURTHER, THAT WHAT MIKE HULME SUGGESTS IN HIS POINT 8 IS ALSO
> >WRONG. IT IS WRONG TO *BACK OUT* THE CO2 FROM FORCINGS. THE CO2 WAS
> >SPECIFIED A PRIORI.
> >
> >NOTE FINALLY THAT MIKE *DOES* GIVE THE 708ppmv VALUE IN HIS POINT 9.
> >USING THIS WOULD BE OK, BUT I RECOMMEND USING THE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
> >BERN MODEL RESULTS (SEE BELOW).
> >
> >(4) Now, some minor wrinkles. In the Hadley Centre model for CO2,
> >DQ=5.05 ln (C/C0). Hence, to get a forcing of 5.758W/m**2, they need to
> >use C(2100/C1990)=3.127. Note that this is a little closer to the 1%
> >compounded result than my above calculation. The Hadley Centre may well
> >have used a slightly different total 1990-2100 GHG forcing than mine, so
> >they may have backed out a compounded CO2 increase rate even closer to
> >1% than the above. In any event, if they decided to go with 1%, then
> >this was a perfectly reasonable choice in order to capture the total GHG
> >forcing.
> >
> >(5) The 708ppmv C(2100) value is what comes out of my carbon cycle
> >model. In the SAR, in Ch. 2, we considered results from three different
> >carbon cycle models; mine, the Bern (Joos) model, and Atul Jain’s
> >model. For illustrations in the SAR, we used the Bern model. The
> >mid-2100 value with this model, for IS92a, was 711.7ppmv. A later
> >version of this model, used in IPCC TP4, gives 711.5ppmv. Jain’s model
> >gave 712.3ppmv.
> >
> >(6) The bottom line here is that, for a consistent pairing of Hadley
> >Centre climate and CO2, one MUST use the ACTUAL CO2 numbers that went
> >into calculating the radiative forcing, NOT the equivalent CO2 numbers.
> >The climate response reflects all GHGs, whereas the plants are
> >responding only to CO2.
> >
> >(7) I am attaching the Joos CO2 time series. I recommend using the
> >actual values rather than trying to fit a compound CO2 increase to
> >them—which, in any event, should not be done using just the end point
> >values. This, however, is your choice. Differences will be negligible
> >in terms of plant response.
> >
> >I hope this clarifies things. It has always seemed pretty obvious and
> >clear cut to me. I hope it will now to all of you.
> >
> >Cheers,
> >Tom
> >
> >
> > **********************************************************
> > *Tom M.L. Wigley *
> > *Senior Scientist *
> > *National Center for Atmospheric Research *
> > *P.O. Box *
> > *Boulder, *
> > *USA *
> > *Phone: *
> > *Fax: *
> > *E-mail: *
> > **********************************************************
> >Attachment Converted: “c:\eudora\attach\Is95a.dat”
> >
>
Good post!
Now spent a day reading through the files and I think they are the real thing. It will take me a few weeks to dig through the detail of what it contains, but the context of everything I’ve seen so far is shocking.
1. The Climate Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia (UEA) have a
complete disregard for the scientific method (i.e. the CRU are doing pseudo-science).
2. The CRU are working with the climate unit at the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) to deliberately manipulate data to conform to expectation and mislead the public regarding global temperatures.
3. The CRU are using their reputation as the world’s leading climate to subvert the peer review process by giving support to poor papers which support AGW, while trying to stop good papers which refute their beliefs.
4. They feel threatened by the current rise in public scepticism about AGW, and spend an inordinate amount of time worrying about if sceptics will find holes in their published information (bunker mentality). They seem to be in cahoots with people in the main-stream media to spread disinformation and alarm.
5. The CRU/GISS admit amongst themselves that the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate models do not account for actual climate observations, but fail to let the public know about this uncertainty.
All public funded bodies, like the CRU, are responsible to the public, not to politicians. The evidence from the hacked files shows that they are acting the other way round.
It is important that as many people as possible get to hear about what’s going on and I think a viral approach is the only way to achieve this, as I think the main-stream media, like the BBC and MSN. will try to limit the damage caused on the run up to Copenhagen.
Suppose you libel me in a private written communication with X. X puts your letter in his safe. Ten years later a burglar steals the safe’s contents. Going through his swag he comes upon your letter, and just for fun, anonymously forwards it back to me. I sue you for your libel. Will you say , “But my private letter was stolen!” In the US, at least, you would get nowhere.
The analogy fails. Libel has to be published or communicated by the libeller. My rights under the Fourth Amendment …
“The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated…”
have been violated, however.
“The evidence for the ‘fraud’ was McIntyre’s Yamal findings…”
What’s your specific ‘evidence’?
Please re-read the post. It was Sonja B-C who was making the claim of fraud and using McIntyre’s work as evidence, not myself. I have made no allegations of fraud.
As for failing to answer questions, pot, meet kettle.
for anyone who wants to do some research, the docs are here:
http://wikileaks.org/wiki/Cliumatic_Research_Unit_emails,_data,_models,_1996-2009
Phil Clarke (14:58:30) :
OK. I assume you have the evidence that CO2 has done ANYTHING (anything at all, in the least, what-so-ever, a smidgeon, etc, ad infinitum) to global T other than to enrich despots, employ activist scientists (I never though I would hear myself say such) cause invested loonies to shout down and vilify dissenters and drive the global economy into a ditch?
Who knows what emails were “disappeared” before this freeing of information.
The liberator did say “… random selection..” leaving the possibility that more is forthcoming. Nice.
If these files exhibit validity, Mann et al should be brought to trial. McIntyre and McKitrick should be given a Nobel prize for discrediting these junk scientists and challenging the biggest hoax of our generation.
It never ceases to amaze how a handful of individuals can seize power and intimidate the rest. These emails will not bring down the “men behind the curtains”, but they have served the purpose of exposing their dishonesty and severely weakening their prestige and power.
Many more will now be more emboldened to pursue the truth. Many politicians may still give lip service to the cause but their personal doubts have now been confirmed. Thus we are witnessing the beginning of the end of the AGW cabal.
C-R-U. Climate Rhetoric Unit.
imapopulist (05:36:37) :
“It never ceases to amaze how a handful of individuals can seize power and intimidate the rest. These emails will not bring down the “men behind the curtains”, but they have served the purpose of exposing their dishonesty and severely weakening their prestige and power”.
Sorry to disappoint you but the scientists are only the tip of the iceberg.
This scam goes straight up to from Royalty to Presidents.
It’s our own Governments that are funding the scam with your money.
So, please don’t draw the wrong conclusions.
This is a real but relatively minor con trick on the part of those who would persuade us that global warming MUST be attributable to CO2 emissions.
If you really want to blow this falsehood apart you can do so for yourself remarkably easily. Just check out the correct definition of ‘global temperature’ in the 26 word summary of conclusions issued by the IPCC. This asserts that most of such warming is ‘very likely’ attributable to ‘greenhouse gas’ increased concentration. That temperature has been measured by the Hadley people at East Anglia and shown to have experienced an increase of just under half a degree C in 22 years.
Now check out the meaning of global temperature (correctly the temperature of the whole, three dimensional globe) that the greenhouse gas theory asserts MUST be affected by putting such a gas between our globe and the sun. It is NOT the same global temperature at all, being at least 100 times greater in magnitude, relating to a body 1.2 million times larger in mass than that of the surface atmosphere and subject to a rise in mean amplitude from the computed forcing rate resulting from CO2 increments of at most a few millionths of a degree C.
Using the scientific ‘law’ relating to the one to assert conclusions about the other is inexcusable.
This is the real con trick, of which the games being played at the Hadley Centre are just a sideshow.
If you doubt that this is so, you don’t need to be a scientist to check it out for yourself. An elementary knowledge of the English language will suffice. Together that is with a strong preference for being told the truth and a marked aversion to card sharps.
For more details you might like to go here
http://rapidshare.com/files/302672844/TWENTY_FIFTYflipped_.doc.html
or here
http://rapidshare.com/files/302671521/CLIMATE_CHANGE_POLICY.doc.html