McIntyre and Lindzen to appear on Finnish TV documentary – transcript

Transcript in English from the TV network website here (h/t to Goran Frojdh)

MOT: Climate catastrophe cancelled

Finnish Broadcasting Co. YLE, TV1, Nov 11th 2009 at 8.00 pm.

Voiceover (VO), reporter Martti Backman: Governments around the world are preparing for a grand climate conference, which should decide how humanity responds to the threat of a climate catastrophe. Negotiations are under way to replace the Kyoto treaty with a new treaty of Copenhagen.

VO: The threat is based on assessments by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the IPCC. According to the panel, the Earth is going through an unprecedented period of temperature increase, caused by man and his carbon dioxide emissions from burning coal and oil.

(Pictures from An Incovenient Truth)

The Earth’s climate has always been changing. But now we are told that warming is happening faster than ever. The view is based on this figure.

(Picture: The global warming hockey stick graph. Music: Electric organ sounds from an ice-hockey game)

VO: This ten-year-old figure, dubbed as the hockey stick, was meant to revolutionize the dominant view of global climate history. The stick’s handle stretches for almost a thousand years, creating an impression of a steady climate, and its’ rising blade in the late 1900’s is proof of sudden, strong warming, which is caused by man.

According to the older view, climate has naturally varied considerably over the past millennium, and in the middle ages it was clearly warmer than today. But in the hockey stick graph, the Medieval Warm Period and the little ice age after it have disappeared. The hockey stick was promoted to honorary status in the IPCC’s third assessment report’s cover. It became the logo of catastrophic climate change. The stick was used to back up the claim that, 1998 was the warmest year of the millennium.

Steve McIntyre: ”At the time I was doing mining exploration business and I just wondered, in the most casual possible way, how they knew that. So that led me start looking at the data and six years later, I’m still doing it”.

VO: The Canadian statistician Steve McIntyre had doubts about the scientific strength of the hockey stick graph, and he decided to unravel the numbers behind it, with the diligence of an auditor. The father of the hockey stick, professor Michael Mann resisted McIntyre’s efforts to get hold of his research data, and it wasn’t until 2003 that McIntyre succeeded in getting access to the data.

McIntyre: ” It turned out that he had modified a principal components method incorrectly and the modified method produced hockey stick-shaped graphs ninety-nine percent of the time. It also emphasized a class of proxies, strip-bark bristlecone pines that previous authors had said were not actually a temperature proxy”.

VO: Temperature records measured by thermometers are at most 150 years long. Earlier histories have to be reconstructed with so-called proxies, or surrogate thermometers. Past climates are deduced for example from tree rings and lake sediments or varves.

The shape of the hockey stick was to a large extent caused by tree rings from a few North American bristlecone pines. McIntyre succeeded in deconstructing the stick. The United States National Academy of Sciences set up a committee to investigate his findings. The committee found that, McIntyre had been right to question the temperature reconstruction and announced that, bristlecone pines should no more be used as proof of climate change.

Steve McIntyre, an outsider in climate science, had succeeded in breaking Mann’s hockey stick, the icon of the climate change movement. But the story was not over. A whole factory started to produce new sticks to replace the broken one.

McIntyre: “There was another class of study, which used a series of tree rings from a scientist called Keith Briffa, from Northern Russia, from a site called Yamal, and this had an even bigger hockey stick-shape than the Michael Mann -hockey stick and this one – – has been used in multiple studies as well and so, over the past few years I’ve been trying to get information about how this particular series was constructed”.

VO: Keith Briffa is one of the big names in climate research. He is a professor in the IPCC’s scientific stronghold in Britain, the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia. He is also a lead author of the past climate chapters of the IPCC’s assessment reports.

McIntyre had to fight for three years to get Briffa’s Yamal data under his microscope. But a lot happened before that.

The well-known medieval warmth was disturbing to the scientists close to the IPCC, the so-called hockey team. In the mid 1990’s the American geologist David Deming received an astonishing e-mail, in which one prominent climate researcher announced to his colleagues:

Actor’s voice: “We have to get rid of the medieval warm period.”

(Picture of Deming’s written statement from the Senate Environmental committee website)

VO: Deming testified about the e-mail at hearings in the United States congress.

Soon after this e-mail, Keith Briffa published a study, where the millennial temperature history looked like this: (the upper curve appears on screen)

VO: The Briffa study was based on a very limited number of tree ring samples from the so-called Polar Urals region in Siberia. With the help of just three short tree ring series he claimed that the year 1032 in the middle of the balmy middle ages, had been the coldest in the millennium. And the modern period appeared to be very warm. A real hockey stick.

A couple of years later, Briffa’s colleague returned to Siberia to drill new tree ring samples. When they were added to Briffa’s original data, the curve looked surprisingly like this: (lower curve appears on screen, the curves merge).

The hockey stick had disappeared, and the medieval warm period had been reinstated as warmer than the present.

McIntyre: “Unfortunately, this updated Polar Urals result was never published and Briffa, in his works since 2000, has made no – – reference to this updated study”.

VO: The updated Polar Urals series was forgotten. Instead, Briffa replaced his original weak Polar Urals data in 2000 with new tree ring series drilled from the Yamal peninsula hundreds of kilometers away. With this data, the climate reconstruction looks like this: (lower curve appears).

VO: The blade of the hockey stick rises at the end of the millennium stronger than ever and the medieval warm period is clearly shadowed by it, if not made to vanish completely.

Yamal data became the most important temperature proxy for all later hockey sticks, and it was used in at least seven temperature reconstruction studies.

But McIntyre knew something about the construction of hockey sticks, and he could not believe in the Yamal curve. The contradiction to established paleoclimatic knowledge was simply too big.

McIntyre: “And the question is just, why was the Polar Urals update not reported? And if the Yamal series was going to be used rather than Polar Urals, that should have been clearly explained to readers. The criteria for preferring one rather than the other should have been also clearly explained”.

VO: Finnish Lapland lies at the same latitudes as Yamal, and there are plenty of Finnish studies on past climates based on tree rings. These studies are considered to be among the best in the world, for their sample quality as well as methodologically. What kinds of hockey sticks have been found in them?

Kari Mielikäinen, professor of forest research (Metla, Finland): “We have this long series going back over 7,000 years, and there’s no hockey stick there.”

VO: Briffa’s Yamal hockey stick was published in the prestigious journal Science. McIntyre asked for a copy of the raw data from Yamal.

McIntyre: ”Briffa refused. The editors of Science refused to require Briffa to provide the measurement data…”

VO: It took McIntyre three years to get hold of the data, although one of the most important rules in science is that, raw data should be made available to anybody who is interested in checking and replicating a study.

Finally Briffa made a “mistake”. He published yet another article based on the Yamal data in a journal of the British Royal Society. The prestigious scientific society held on to the principle of data transparency and forced Briffa to make his raw data public. In September this year, the Canadian climate auditor had his forebodings confirmed.

McIntyre: ”So after, after sort of, three years of frustration and trying to examine the data that Briffa had used and probably four years of people saying that this data supported the Michael Mann -work on other grounds, it was really quite frustrating to find that it was built up on ten trees that had been not randomly selected”.

VO: So the Yamal data included only ten living trees from the 1990’s, and the rapid growth of these individuals caused the steep rise of the hockey stick blade. In Finnish dendrological studies, hardly anything would be said based on just ten trees. What’s demanded is at least 50 trees for each year, and several other quality criteria as well. How have these criteria been observed in the Yamal data?

Kari Mielikäinen (professor of forest research, Finnish Forest Research Institute Metla): “Rather weakly it seems. It looks like there are problems with both cohort structure and also the regional distribution (of the sample).”

VO: McIntyre conducted a simple statistical exercise. He replaced the 10-tree Yamal sample by a larger 34-tree sample collected from the same area. (In this figure) the added material is depicted with the black curve, and the combination of both data sets as a green curve.

VO: The hockey stick blade disappears, or actually turns downwards. And the medieval period is again warmer than the present.

McIntyre: ”I think that the preferential selection of Yamal, rather than Polar Urals, biases the result that’s presented to the public”.

VO: All good proxy-based climatic reconstructions should compare the results with adjacently located measurements from thermometers. When this is done in the Yamal area, it emerges that none of the near-by weather stations have recorded warming that would explain the hockey stick graph. In other words, if those ten trees have grown abnormally fast in the 1990’s it is due to something else than heat.

Mielikäinen: “If you choose one convenient series just to prove a point, be it a hockey stick or anything, you are definitely on a wrong track.”

VO: Problems with tree ring studies will be addressed next summer in an international scientific congress chaired by Mielikäinen in Rovaniemi (Finnish Lapland).


VO: The author of the Yamal reconstruction, Keith Briffa, has disputed the criticism aimed at his study, but it still draws heated debate.

Briffa’s employer, the IPCC-affiliated climate research unit CRU maintains a global database of temperature measurements from weather stations. This database is central to the conclusion that global temperatures have risen to a worrying extent during the past 40 years. The CRU has combined thermometer readings into a global average with a method which it refuses to disclose, but which allegedly has brought added value to the raw data. McIntyre has requested the data from CRU director Phil Jones, but he has been turned down, and others as well.

McIntyre: “An Australian named Warwick Hughes had asked for the data and Warwick Hughes had published some articles that had been critical of how the temperature histories had been prepared, and Jones said ‘Why should I send – we have twenty-five years invested in this, why should I send the data to you when your only objective is to find anything wrong with it?”, which is a very unscientific statement.”

VO: The CRU database is the most important scientific justification for the demands that the most ambitious treaty in mankind’s history should be finalized in Copenhagen in December. In spite of this, there is no way to replicate its’ validity.

Recently the CRU director Phil Jones has announced that the original measurement data does not exist anymore because of data storage difficulties. A dog ate the world’s most important scientific measurement homework.

(Pause, move to Korttajärvi, central Finland.)

VO: Materials for the hockey stick factory have also been collected from Finland.

Reporter Backman, standing on a jetty: “This small Korttajärvi in Jyväskylä has become a focal point in the international climate debate. Based on samples taken from its’ bottom sediments, some foreign researchers claim that, an unprecedented warming occurred at the end of the 20th century. Finnish researchers, on the other hand, have used the lake to show that climate has always changed, even more than recently, and irrespective of human influence.”

VO: Five years ago, one of the Korttajärvi researchers responded to MOT’s question about the IPCC’s claim that recent temperatures are highest in a thousand years.

(Interview footage from MOT archive, 2004)

Ojala: “Based on these studies it seems that this claim is not quite true, at least for the Northern hemisphere, at least for Scandinavia. We’ve clearly had much warmer winters here in the Nautajärvi and Korttajärvi area, than what we are experiencing now.”

Question by Backman: “What’s your estimate, how much warmer was the medieval period in Finland, compared to the present?”

Ojala: “It is difficult to say exactly. But we may speak of half a degree (Celsius), even a whole degree based on several European studies.”

VO: At least two research teams close to the IPCC added the sediment data collected by Finnish researchers as part of their own paleoclimatic model reconstructions. This was done with agreement, but the Finns were surprised to see that in a study published this September, their data and interpretation of its’ meaning had been turned upside down. Here is the millennial temperature reconstruction from Korttajärvi done by the Finns:

VO: And here we have the same data presented by the hockey team:

VO: A nice hockey stick has emerged from the Korttajärvi mud. What in the Finnish study signified cold, had been turned into warmth in the IPCC science and vice versa. This interpretation passed the scientific peer review.

Dr. Atte Korhola, professor of environmental change at the University of Helsinki, is an expert in lake sediment studies.

Atte Korhola: “Some curves and data have been used upside down, and this is not a compliment to climate science. And in this context it is relevant to note that the same people who are behind this are running what may be the world’s most influential climate website, RealClimate. With this they are contributing to the credibility of science – or reducing it. And in my opinion this is alarming because it bears on the credibility of the field, and if these kinds of things emerge often – that data have been used insufficiently or even falsely, or if data series have been truncated or they have not been appropriately published (for replication), it obviously erodes the credibility, and this is a serious problem.”

VO: The author of the September study, Darrell Kaufman, admitted his mistake two weeks ago and sent a correction to the journal Science. But the main author of a previous study, Michael Mann, the father of the original hockey stick, still sticks to the claim that a hockey stick was found at the bottom of lake Korttajärvi.


VO: The climate studies used by the UN affiliated IPCC are usually computer simulations, based on models emulating the behavior of global climate. Some traditional researchers have criticized studies based on just computer simulations, calling it “playstation climatology”.

According to the most prominent computer models, human activity should cause global warming that looks like this:

(Graph showing rising projections to 2100.)

But the measurements show that, real temperature has so far varied like this:

(Graph showing land and satellite based measurements of global temperature until 2009 – clearly below the model simulations.)

VO: A poorly known fact is that, global climate stopped warming after a two-decade period (in the late 1900’s). Since 1998 there has been no statistically measured global warming. Instead, the climate has slightly cooled for several years. Not one of the climate models used by the IPCC was able to predict this turn of events.

Some new studies predict the cooling phase to continue longer, maybe for a couple of decades. In spite of that, many leading scientists affiliated with the IPCC still claim that global warming continues, even faster than predicted.

Meanwhile, some of the catastrophic consequences predicted by the models have been revealed as overblown. The Arctic sea ice has started to recover from its’ minimum area recorded two years ago, Antarctic melting has slowed down to a minimum during measured history, sea level rise has not accelerated from its’ previous rate, and hurricane seasons have been mild. Nature has not obeyed the manuscript.

Korhola: “In late summer 2008 I was in England, where all newspapers ran a front-page story about a scenario predicting the total disappearance of Arctic sea ice by that summer. And these predictions were distributed by two leading researchers of the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado, Mark Serreze and Jay Zwally. Well, what happened was that these predictions did not come true, but that 2008 was clearly a better year than 2007 with the collapse in ice extent, which was apparently caused by anomalous atmospheric pressure and wind conditions in the Arctic regions.”

VO: Richard Lindzen is a professor of climate science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technololy, one of the world’s most prestigious science universities. He is one of the few scientists who do not study climate by simulating it with computer models. He studies observations from the real natural world.

Richard Lindzen: “This field is completely sick in that way, I mean, you have models you know that they don’t work, you know they don’t reproduce a – phenomenon, but you bend data to fit the model. I don’t think this can go on for long without being embarrassing”.

VO: In September, Lindzen published a study that hit the core of the climate debate. Based on radiation measurements, he calculated how much the doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration could really warm up the Earth.

The Earth is protected from cosmic freezing by the atmospheric gas blanket. According to the catastrophic warming theory, the CO2 emitted from burning oil and coal thickens the blanket and thus causes the temperature to rise dangerously.

An undisputed scientific fact is that, a doubling of CO2 in itself is enough to cause a one degree (Celsius) of atmospheric warming, which would not be a problem. But the climate models have been fed with the assumption that the warming caused by CO2 increased the concentration of water vapor, which in turn would further thicken the blanket and multiply the total warming a couple of times, up to a fateful six degrees.

Lindzen: “The models do exactly what they are supposed to, given their sensitivity. They all show the blanket thickens and it thickens by the amount consistent with the sensitivity of the models do of doubling of CO2. Do the same thing to nature, and it does exactly the opposite, and it does it more powerfully. So you have all the models agreeing with each other, and all of them wrong compared to nature.”

VO: The question of water vapor feedback is the key in determining the threat of a climate catastrophe. The climate models assume that, the higher the surface temperature rises, the thicker the warming blanket gets. But is this really happening?

Lindzen and his team compared sea-level temperatures with the satellite-based measurements of incoming and outgoing radiation in the upper atmosphere. While all computer models show that, as the surface temperature rises, less radiation escapes to space:

(Graph of 11 model simulations with downward sloping lines)

VO: The reality measured from nature is exactly diametrical:

(The 12th diagram ‘ERBE’ by Lindzen added to the graph set, showing a rising curve)

VO: It turned out that, cloud cover changes as the surface warms, but it was not getting thicker; it was thinning. In this way, nature prevents the atmosphere from excessive heating. The cloud cover reacts to temperature changes like an eye’s iris to changes in light, by contracting or expanding. Lindzen calls this thermostatic behavior the Iris-effect.

And what is the significance of this effect to the estimates of human-caused climatic warming?

Lindzen: “It’s saying that, instead of the one degree being magnified, it should be shrunk by at least a half.”

Question by Backman: “And how much would this sensitivity be in degrees of Celsius?”

Lindzen: “Now, in terms of degrees of Celsius it says that we shall expect doubling the CO2 might contribute in the order of half a degree to the global mean temperature anomaly.”

Backman: “And how big a problem is that?”

Lindzen: “None. We see that from month to month, year to year all the time. I mean the truth is, we have seen already two thirds, three quarters of a degree. This is not the period when the world is falling apart. It’s a period when the population has grown, when famine has been defeated, when people live longer than ever and there is large number of people that are supposedly terribly warming the earth, are living better for the most part.”

VO: Lindzen’s study shows with measurements that the assumption of an impending climate catastrophe is basically wrong. The IPCC camp has reacted to the study with complege silence.

Lindzen: “I think it’s because it’s so simple and obvious, and I think even the alarmist groups know that the better part of wisdom is not to publicize this.”

VO: Professor Atte Kohola is not skeptical of the potential threat of climatic warming like his colleague in Boston, but both scientists are worried about the politicizion of climate science.

Korhola: “Especially now with the Copenhagen conference approaching, one gets the impression that also among scientists, many have lost control. Especially when you compare original studies to how they are presented to the public, in the mass media, there is a huge gap in what comes out. We get a lot of material with terms like dramatic, catastrophic, unprecedented, and among some researchers there is even talk of planetary doom and saving the planet.”

Lindzen: “The real question is, why the last few years have seen this huge boost with all these crazy movies – “Inconvenient truth” – nonsense spewed out, hysteria? We are all going to die, if we don’t change our light bulbs immediately. I can only say, somebody must have noticed that the temperature has stopped increasing and they had all these agendas by now to make billions of dollars, and do this and do that, get people to pay taxes and feel happy about it, because they are saving the earth and so on. So you have the politicians, the bureaucrats, the scientists and so on, and all felt you know that if the temperature continues this way, this is finished if we don’t get it through immediately so the volume has increased.”

VO: MOT asked for an interview with the director of the Finnish meteorological institute, Dr. Petteri Taalas, who is sympathetic to the IPCC’s main line. He refused.



Lindzen and McIntyre’s Finnish TV interview – issues that US journalists fail to investigate


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Evan Jones

There’s a lot hanging on Lindzen, et al (2009).

What with the cold October, lack of solar activity (at least if you’re the sort to favor a connection between that and climate), and transition into winter with its extremes, this may be a good time to encourage the media to entertain a skeptical thought.
Between the pre-Copenhagen hype that even the most biased journalist can recognize and the AGW catastrophes not happening, this might be a good time to appeal to their sense of conflict between the two camps.
I figured this would be the year the media begins to wake up, it seems also to be the year the media becomes marginalized. Whether the media decides that their customers want information and all sides or their customers want entertainment and conflict, we got it.
It’s interesting that “MOT asked for an interview with the director of the Finnish meteorological institute, Dr. Petteri Taalas, who is sympathetic to the IPCC’s main line. He refused.” I wonder if he would have a couple years ago, or even if MOT would have produce a documentary like this.


Thank you for Finnish Broadcasting for showing a level of courage that puts others in the media to shame. This is investigative reporting at its best.
This is what journalism used to be, hard-hitting and tenacious. Lord Reith would be proud if his child, the BBC, had produced this.

Jim Bob

Oh, please, let this show up on YouTube.

Gary Hladik

Uh-oh. I think Finland just blew its chances for the 2018 Olympic Winter Games.


This story summarizes my reasons for skepticism well.
But unfortunately, there are those who are so invested in belief that the words will bounce right off.
But these honest discussions may get through to some. Finally.
Love the line …”get people to pay taxes and feel happy about it, because they are saving the earth.”
Comes down to that.

Michael hauber

I think the Denial Depot post entitled ‘The Yamal Fraud – I have found it’ says it perfectly.
The difference between the ‘team’ hockey sticks and the Loehle 2007 reconstruction which I believe you guys approve of (correct me if I’m wrong) is trivial.


Here it is on youtube
Part 1 –… (4:34)
Part 2 –… (6:21)
Part 3 –… (3:26)
Part 4 –… (5:10)
Part 5 –… (5:02)
REPLY: These are incomplete links – they don’t work. The URL has been truncated when you pasted them in…note the …

Shurley Knot

This site is the National Enquirer of climate science.
I like it.


says it all really.
here’s what’s happening in our government over all this


Awesome. This should be spread as far and wide as possible so that everyone gets a chance to see, digest, and hopefully understand what is really going on…


“temperature increase, caused by man and his carbon dioxide emissions”
Hey, the ladies use electricity too y’know. How come it’s always the guy’s fault when bad stuff happens.


The stick’s handle stretches for almost a thousand years, creating an impression of a steady climate, and its’ rising blade in the late 1900’s is proof of sudden, strong warming, which is caused by Mann.

There. Fixed.


Gary,yup, they may well have blown their chances for 2018 but given that this tiny northern nation took on the might of Uncle Joes forces and gave them a very bloody nose, I don’t think they’ll be that bothered:)
Once again, thank you Finland


Conclusion: If we don’t want to freeze our lower back, we should put more CO2 in the atmosphere because as seen on the correct temperature charts, it has been cooling since the MWP and it is still cooling.


However……the above is another documentary!

Alan S. Blue

The differences between Mann et al. and Loehle do seem quite slight. But one of the key facets of Mann’s work was being able to ascribe the observed warming to anthropogenic sources – since this warming is “unprecedented,” and thus unlikely to be of natural origin.
The argument hasn’t been over “Was there any warming in the nineties really?” for quite some time now.

The IPCC socialist politicos have had to pull out all the stops, in terms of propaganda. Here’s a particularly disgusting sample showcasing a minor:
This use of attractive children for and as the targets of propaganda is nothing new, of course. See the next link for examples:

Ron de Haan

Of course Dr. Petteri Taalas refuses.
No way he can defend his point of view against the arguments of McIntyre and Lindzen.
They have done a great job debunking the AGW arguments and the “science” behind it.
Now we have to get rid of the religion.

Skeptic Tank

(sarcasm)Shhh. Never speak of this again.(/sarcasm)


Ron de Haan (16:06:41) :
Unfortunately, there is nothing such as a “dead religion”. There are always disciples that won’t let go.

P Wilson

parts 1-5 are in this area – if its the right feature
REPLY: Sorry no, this is from 2007, and not from Finnish TV. – Anthony

Neil O'Rourke

Of course, where would we be without the World’s Gratest Leader on Climate Change?
Oh, that’s right, you can’t discuss it if you don’t agree with him:

James Sexton

evanmjones (15:27:20) :
“There’s a lot hanging on Lindzen, et al (2009).”
Assuming the political world will wait. Sadly, there seems to be a horrific rush to ‘settle the matter’.
Shurley Knot (15:48:33) :
This site is the National Enquirer of climate science.
I like it.”
I typically don’t like to engage in such sarcasm, however, you seemed to have an open invitation to the readers here for such a venture.
I really appreciate your clear, open-minded views. Your commentary is a wonderful contribution to the discussion. Given your comparison to the National Inquirer, I can see where the insights of scientists dedicated to the pursuit of truth as opposed to political convenience would be ALIEN to you. Sorry to inform you, but the idea of AGW via CO2 is as dead as Elvis and JFK.

Gene Nemetz

evanmjones (15:27:20) :
There’s a lot hanging on Lindzen, et al (2009).
Has the data question from Roy Spencer been answered?
[REPLY – Not that I know of. That will be the next step. ~ Evan]

Mike Bryant

CAGW is Finnished


Shurely knot the love child of dhogaza and
mefinney2, or are you?
Is it the cloaked mind that gives your identity away or is it just the mindless belief-blinded nervous LOL that reveals your genetic inability to view the world via logic-based vision that tells more of you, to others, than you could wish revealed?
SK, apologies for being intimate, but if you wish to learn you’ve come to the right place, if your Reading comprehension is sub-prime we will move you forward to the point where LOL is but a memory

Indiana Bones

The AGW campaign was dreamed up using old fashioned propaganda techniques dating back from before World War II. Until the late nineties these techniques had succeeded. The approach is outlined by Lindzen in his lecture to CEI and by others who are familiar with propaganda methodology.
Where once you could tell a story and repeat it over and over again to achieve acceptance – the viewers/readers/audience are now more skeptical. Especially in the US, Continent and Australia. Publishing different versions of your story in mainstream newspapers and prestigious publications once was a sure lock on garnering mind share. This is no longer the case. Simply because educated voices, reasoned voices, intelligent people are able to present opposing points of view accessible to billions via the internet. This is the part played by WUWT. It is in fact real grass roots democracy.
People, by increasing numbers have been reading the skeptical point of view for a couple years now. They are disturbed by the lack of candor and forthrightness on the part of alarmists. They can read in black and white the nasty, hostile, at times vile attacks leveled at skeptics. They have seen the hiding of data and stonewalling of open, transparent access to methods of peer reviewed “studies.” They question the exaggerated catastrophizing of purported experts.
The conclusion is the AGW campaign has stifled itself. It has gone off the deep end into the equivalent of shouting “fire” in a stable climate. This has collapsed trust in the experts and the politics behind global warming. They doubt the motives behind reasons to tax a trace atmospheric gas that actually helps plant life grow.
And now Dr. Lindzen comes along and demonstrates via hard data that the premise for the entire science of global warming is incorrect. The alarmists are wrong and have been wrong all along. Those who have played along with the exaggerated claims have embarrassed themselves. Those who obstructed honest research questioning AGW – will be held responsible. Federal funds will be used to investigate those responsible and if laws were broken they will be brought to justice – in open court – for all to hear and see. The days of “science for a fee,” will be buried. Consensus will be accepted only with full, open debate.
While it is not the first time a massive fraud has been perpetrated by a small cabal of authorities – it will hopefully be the last. But it can only be the last if people remain ever-vigilant, by thinking for themselves and not accepting rote claims by pop media and “experts.” Skepticism is a healthy part of science and of learning, both practical and academic. In this case, doubt revealed cracks in the wall of consensus – and then broke it into little pieces.
Who was it said a handful of dedicated people can change the world?? Good work.

Bill Illis

What a comedy.
Except it isn’t laughable since we are still poised to completely change the economy and the energy sources we rely on based on its philosophy (I don’t think we should call it science anymore).

Ron de Haan

Indiana Bones (16:57:49) :
If Copenhagen concludes with an agreement for the “Political Framework”, wich in principle is the World Government concept Lord Monckton has warned us for, we have won a battle about the science but lost the war to maintain our freedom.
We must focus on the political aspects behind the AGW/Climate Change doctrine.
It’s far to early to call this a victory.

Gary P

I hope that this will eventually lead to an absolute requirement that data and methods are released when a paper is published. From the skeptical side of a paper it always looks like fraud when the data is hidden and they refuse to provide it upon request.
I hope that the AGW believers are beginning to release the irreparable harm that has been done to their cause by Mann and Briffa. The total refrutation of their work is tainting all of the climate history studies. Every paper that relies on the Briffa paper should be retracted. They won’t be, and eventually these subsequent papers will be looked on in the same light as a paper in paleoanthropology that refers to the Piltdown man.

Ron de Haan
Ron de Haan

Obama may go to Copenhagen to clinch deal
09 Nov 2009 23:33:05 GMT
* Obama says willing to go to Copenhagen to clinch deal
* Says U.S. Senate will not pass bill before meeting
* Talks with China key to clearing climate obstacles (Adds quotes)
What will he offer in change for Chinese support, the surrender of the USA to China?

Neil O'Rourke

Obama may go to Copenhagen to clinch deal
Let’s hope he does for AGW what he did for the Olympics.

George E. Smith

Well I think I will go home and turn my stereo up full bore; or at least what passes for full bore in my house, and play some Sibelius Symphonies. Those very nationalistic works have always conjured up in my mind, images of rocky snow and ice covered mountains with arboreal forests around them; the very epitome of an arctic wonderland that is quite happy the way it is.
But just for good measure to let the Finns know how much we appreciate them and their intestinal fortitude; I’ll open all the windows, and then really turn it up full bore; and level the neighborhood with a rousing rendition of Finlandia; maybe I’ll throw in the Karelia Suite for an encore.
If the federales arrive, I’ll just say it’s a celebration of a return to sanity.
Does anyone remember that long shaggy dog story about why fire engines are painted red. I know it ends up with; …”the Finns fought the Russians; the Russians are red; that’s why fire engines are painted red !”
Sorry you’ll have to google the rest of the yarn up for yourselves; something about a ruler and Queen Mary too; starts off with how many wheels and men a fire engine has.

Michael hauber

Alan S. Blue stated:
‘But one of the key facets of Mann’s work was being able to ascribe the observed warming to anthropogenic sources – since this warming is “unprecedented,” and thus unlikely to be of natural origin.’
I have never thought of the hockey stick as a key piece as supporting an argument that ‘the warming is bigger than anything before therefore it must be caused by man’. Particularly as all climate scientists seem to have agreed for a rather long time that it was quite a bit hotter in the much deeper dark past.
Rather the point of the hockey stick is ‘man is causing it to be warmer than any time in our history, therefore our climate is different to any climate civilization has previously experienced, and is therefore dangerous’. Whether this point has been crossed already, or whether it will be crossed sometime between now and the end of the century is a bit of a moot point. The warming experienced so far has not been particularly dangerous as nothing particularly bad has happened so far. Its the warming in the future to be concerned about, and I don’t think anyone would argue that the medieval warm period is warmer than what we will experience by the end of the century if the IPCC projections are accurate.

Ron de Haan

Monday, November 09, 2009
How about them apples.

Ron de Haan
Karl Maki

Makes me proud to be a Finn.

To turn a graph upside down to get the right result! Scientists either have to stand up and challenge what is being done in ther name or bow their heads in shame.


Impressive contribution and good to have first of the MSM picking it up.
Another good sign.
Scary how quite a number of “scientists” have no shame to primitively betray their colleagues and the public. What the hell is their mission?
Being interested in this developing climate change story for years now, I’ve found this blog few weeks ago, sorry. But in the meantime it has become my #1 information site, leaving all the world news behind.
It is just much more exciting to follow here. Great job, Anthony and all contributors.

`Tor Hansson

I think we can be fairly certain that Copenhagen will not produce any documents that will encumber the U.S. economy. There are enough savvy people in the White House to know that the risk is non-existent. Flowery words will be spoken, and fiery pledges will be made to the salvation of the planet. Procedural issues and technicalities take over from there, and before you know it we have poetry without motion. China and India will resist the Western nations, committees will meet, and proposals will be tabled. It will all sound very scary, but the intention behind it all will be to do nothing. The Copenhagen quagmire of political discord will be deep and mucky, just wait and see.
Watch out for renewed AGW claims during the likely cooling period ahead however. The AGWers have already claimed violent weather as part of man-made climate change. With the cooling we can expect more of it—more variability, more hurricanes, more droughts, etc. It well be the new climate-change meme while the average yearly temperature drops.


“`Tor Hansson (19:10:35) :
I think we can be fairly certain that Copenhagen will not produce any documents that will encumber the U.S. economy. There are enough savvy people in the White House to know that the risk is non-existent. ”
I would be more reassured if I believed that the White House wanted protect American interests. However, I have no such confidence.
Obama is absolutely determined to push through the cap and trade legislation and he cannot BUT be aware of its consequences. In fact, he’s on record some three years ago in an interview saying that he would push the price of coal through the roof. When gas prices were at their highest during the campaign, all he said was that it was a pity they had risen so fast! Obviously, he’s a believer in boiling the frog. The economic well being of the average American seems to be the last thing on his mind.

Isn’t that climatastrophy cancelled.
Blog’s are making a difference.


President Obama either has blinkers on or truly believes in AGW to the point that any data to the contrary is ignored. A sad state of affairs indeed.
It’s also amusing to see that the Graudiad calls Rajendra Pachauri of the IPCC a “A leading climate scientist”. It would seem that anyone can become a climate scientist these days, even a PhD in Industrial Engineering and Economics.
So, how do I get off this insane world…?

`Tor Hansson

With all the posturing that has been going on I understand your concern. But you can bet your last petrodollar on the White House being fully cognizant of the fact that the 2012 election will be won on the economy, the economy, and the economy. NOTHING ELSE.
The Administration may have a soft spot for the liberal left, but it will always act in the interest of mainstream America’s pocketbook when push comes to shove. Otherwise you get benched after one term in office, and that is not what any Administration has in mind.
Seriously, do you think the White House does not have the latest and best information on what’s going on with the climate, and that there is no-one in the meetings who points out that this is a chimera?
Green job creation? Yes. Burdening the U.S. production sector? No.

J. D. Lindskog

Confidence games are artful constructs of seduction. To be part of “saving the world”, particularly a world awash in the media deification of celebrity, has the requisite attribute of universality. Everybody from Obama to grandma can play a heroic part in this game. The game is never about truth, always has two sets of players, one ending, and results in tears for someone.

Thermageddon canceled? Great news–now how can we show this film to the U.S. Senate before they roast us anyway?

Alan S. Blue

Michael hauber (18:06:00) :
The key piece is that the projections aren’t made entirely from the first principles of physics and chemistry. They involve a long list of “best guesses.”
The models do not hindcast a LIA or MWP of any real note. That is: They fail the test against historical reality iff there really was a LIA and MWP of the extent all the historians are still pretty vehement about. The models track CO2 tightly – and CO2 wasn’t doing anything interesting in that era.
If your model can’t hindcast, you shouldn’t even be considering using it as a forecaster.
None of the models is doing even moderately well over the short term. (For starters, they ascribed too much of the warming to CO2 relative to the oceanic cycles – which is admitted in the peer reviewed journals.) Yet we want to use an ensemble of the models (good and bad all lumped together as a “best guess”) and extend that out to a hundred years in the future. Extrapolation is something you should not be doing until you have a solid lock on your model. And forecasting is even worse than extrapolation.


“The Administration may have a soft spot for the liberal left, but it will always act in the interest of mainstream America’s pocketbook when push comes to shove. Otherwise you get benched after one term in office, and that is not what any Administration has in mind.”
Obama has said, and I believe means, that he wants to remake America. Everything that he’s done has been towards larger government and greater government control. Cap and trade would involve a HUGE new bureaucracy that would regulate every aspect of people’s lives. I believe achieving that is a much greater priority for Obama than getting a second term.
“Seriously, do you think the White House does not have the latest and best information on what’s going on with the climate, and that there is no-one in the meetings who points out that this is a chimera?”
I don’t believe for a second that Obama really believes in all this. Like most of the other proponents, Its just a convenient smokescreen for their real agenda, which is social engineering, socialism and, in many cases, world government.