Why Copenhagen Will Achieve Nothing

Guest post by Willis Eschenbach

The upcoming Copenhagen climate summit, officially and ponderously named “COP15 United Nations Climate Change Conference Copenhagen 2009”, is aimed at reducing the emissions of the developed world. The main players, of course, are the US and Western Europe. There is a widespread perception that if the US and Western Europe could only get our CO2 emissions under control, the problem would be solved. Nothing could be further from the truth.

To see the gaping hole in this idea, it is only necessary to look at the historical record of carbon emissions. Here is that graph:

While in 1970 the US and Western Europe combined to contribute about half of all CO2 emissions, at present this is far from true. In the past 35 years, the combined emissions of the US and Western Europe have risen only slightly. Globally, however, CO2 emissions have risen steeply, with no end in sight.

So it doesn’t matter if Europe signs on to a new Kyoto. It doesn’t matter if the US adopts Cap and Trade. Both of them together will make no significant difference. Even if both areas could roll their CO2 emissions back to 1970 levels, it would not affect the situation in the slightest.

These are meaningless attempts to hold back a rising tide of emissions. Me, I don’t think rising CO2 levels are a problem. But if you think it will be a problem, then you should definitely concentrate on adaptation strategies .. because mitigation simply isn’t going to work.

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Skeptic Tank
November 7, 2009 5:51 am

Thank you all who replied to my question. Willis Eschenbach’s explanation is quite comprehensive.
It seems to me some people mix apples and oranges when talking units of carbon (solid mass measured in metric tonnes) and CO2 (a volume or mass of gas typically measured in standard cubic feet or normal liters).

November 7, 2009 5:55 am

janama (03:37:32) :
“If Copenhagen won’t achieve anything – the why not cancel it and save the CO2 output.”
Because Copenhagen is a very nice place to go on an all expenses paid jolly thank you very much.
It can get very cold in Copenhagen in December…

John M
November 7, 2009 5:56 am

Always nice to have a graph to visualize things. The US emissions are worth a closer look.
http://img337.imageshack.us/img337/53/usco2emissions.png
Can anyone pick out when Clinton/Gore ruled?
Merely a coincidence of course, why I bet you could find plenty of data that doesn’t correlate at all, like, like, um, global temperature maybe…er, uh, never mind.
🙂

Paul R
November 7, 2009 6:02 am

The CO2 myth has only ever been one of a range of sociological levers used to nudge our huge backsides towards global utopia.
The Aussie Greens are there already and have rolled up the Southern Cross in favor of big brother.
http://greens.org.au/node/776

November 7, 2009 6:08 am

Andrew Chantrill (01:04:15) :
“The chart is very interesting, but it shows only man-made CO2, which is but around 3% of the total.”
That’s a fact that is completely overlooked by the climate alarmist crowd. The UN/IPCC shows human CO2 emissions vs the planet’s natural CO2 emissions: click
For every 34.3 molecules of CO2 emitted into the atmosphere from all sources, human activity contributes only one of those molecules. All the rest are natural CO2 emissions.
In addition, the annual year-over-year variability in the planet’s natural CO2 emissions is greater than the tiny human component, so claiming that the one human produced CO2 molecule out of 34 will cause runaway global warming and climate catastrophe is simply a baseless scare tactic.

Bill Illis
November 7, 2009 6:12 am

We could potentially stabilize CO2 levels if we cut our Carbon emissions to 3 or 4 GTs per year (assuming oceans and plants would continue to absorb about half the amount we are emitting right now).
But that would take converting the entire electricity industry to zero-emission or sequestration (and then more than that yet).
The 50,000 power plants that exist world-wide now would have to be converted to zero-emission versions and then we couldn’t build any new ones that were not zero-emission. That would take technology that we don’t have yet (but can probably develop) and it would take trillions of dollars in investment.
Forget CFL lightbulbs and turning off your lights. We can’t use any electricity at all or it all has to be zero-emission. And then, we have to stop using cement and minimize travel and the transportation of goods.
So all that sounds like too much change to put into a law or a treaty when we have no idea how to do it.

Expat in France
November 7, 2009 6:37 am

Brian Johnson UK – “…But living in France is not the be all of life is it? Viewed from the other side of the Channel the thought of living amongst garlic chewing, cheese eating surrender monkeys doesn’t appeal to me…”
Well I enjoy it, Brian! It beats living in the UK hands down, that’s why we came.
Even taking into consideration the short-@rsed nutter we have in charge!!
Comfortable enough, here, with a wood burner going, also a wood-fired kitchen range with oil-fired CH as an expensive back-up! The French give us a tax refund for installing “renewable” heating and cooking equipment, then take it away again in other taxes because of the “particulates” we release during our wood burning. You can’t win. Mankind has been burning wood to keep warm (and anything else that will burn) ever since he ceased to be an ape. Can’t stop now, we want to be warm.
There should be revolution in the air, but I suspect all this Copenhagen cr@p will just wash over the sheeple until they wake up one day in a freezing cave, and wonder…

Ed H
November 7, 2009 7:04 am

Frederick writes:
“However I do hate waste and I am appalled at the MASSIVE energy inefficiencies of the US. And don’t blame it on quality of life. I live in France and the quality of life is higher than in the US due to the excellent health service and the lower disparity in incomes and I know this first hand because I lived and worked in Colorado for a time.”
Ah, your socialist control tendencies are showing. You define quality of life in terms of government control of health care and egalitarian evaluation of income distribution. Very socialist measures indeed. I contend my quality of life in the US is far higher because quality of life include: freedom to make my own choices, freedom to travel where and when I can afford (using energy to get there and back), freedom to live some distance from my work rather than being crammed in high density population areas (using energy to get there and back), freedom to live in a larger apartment than average and having more space to enjoy (using more ebergy to heat and cool it), freedom (for a couple more years only unfortunately) to use warm incandescent lighting rather than cold, mercury-laden flourescents, freedom to drive a car that was heavy and solid enough to have saved my life and that of my family when it struck a guardrail head on at highway speeds due to the driver making a simple mistake reacting to a horn (using more energy than a ‘green-friendly’ car would have in which all three of us would have been killed), and the list can go on and on…
And the supply/demand based approach to assessing the question: if quality of life in the US is not as good as elsewhere, people wouldn’t still be flocking here from all over the world both legally and illegally.
I’ll take the freedom based quality of life here anytime, and will fight and die if necessary to preserve it, as will many other millions of Americans if the rest of the world ever tries to take it away, treaty or no treaty.

Dana H.
November 7, 2009 7:13 am

You should retitle this “Why Copenhagen Will Achieve Nothing POSITIVE”. What it could potentially accomplish is the further destruction of the U.S. and world economy if it results in carbon emission restrictions with any teeth.

jmrSudbury
November 7, 2009 7:32 am

That graph only goes up to 2006. With all the coal fired plants China has built in the past few years, I wonder how that graph would look if it included data up to 2008. — John M Reynolds

Ron de Haan
November 7, 2009 7:48 am

Rhys Jaggar (03:24:41) :
“The whole thing is the latest front for scams involving the loot and pillage of Africa and SE Asia.
Billions in ‘aid’ for climate change, and no doubt status quo for corporations looking for franchises.
When are people going to just reject this farce for what it is?”
they will reject it all right.
The moment they get the correct information and the moment they are confronted with the rationing.

In the Netherlands (like the Danes one of the most indoctrinated people in Europe) a Regional TV Station organized a public discussion about the application of outdoor heaters which are run by natural gas.
A politician were drummed up together with an apparatchik from the Environmental Organization “Nature and Environment”. Both agreed the CO2 problem was real and measures had to be taken.
In the end the public was offered the option to ban or tolerate the outdoor heaters.
Well 20% voted in against and 80% voted in favor of the outdoor heaters.
After 20 years of pushing the “Green Bandwagon” people don’t take it seriously.
We must bring out the right information.
What to think about a very short listing of the most important parameters about our climate that people can check for themselves?

TA
November 7, 2009 7:57 am

Actually, it appears that the US and Europe still combine to account for about half of all emissions. It looks like the US and Europe combined add up to about 4, while the global figure is just over 8. This does not take away from the overall point, however, because the rest of the world is on a very steep trajectory. In fact, if a line were drawn showing the rest of the world without the US and Europe included, it would look even steeper than the red line on the graph. I would like to see a graph showing it that way.

Robert Doyle
November 7, 2009 8:10 am

If the U.S. Gross Domestic Product, growth graph were overlayed on the U.S.
carbon line, one would see that our economy is halving the carbon per dollar
output in a 25 year time frame.
This is the value baseline that Copenhagen must beat. The economy isn’t static, and certainly not evil.

Roger Clague
November 7, 2009 8:22 am

As TA says considering CO2 ‘ the rest of the world is on a very steep trajectory’. That is energy use is rapidly increasing outside of Europe and USA.
It is the economic developement and increase in wealth that results from energy use that the West wants to limit and control.

November 7, 2009 8:35 am

I have question for you smart folks. The annual rise of CO2 of about 2 ppm amounts to how many tons per year? I’ve always wondered how that figure compares to anthropogenic CO2 output.

Ron de Haan
November 7, 2009 8:54 am

Kate (02:29:10) :
Kate, do you have a copy or a download for the report you refer to?
Thanks in advance.

Ralph
November 7, 2009 9:07 am

And in the name of cutting emissions, we close factories in the West, ship them out to China, where they then put out ten times as much pollution.
That, is about as nonsesical as it gets.
.

Ron de Haan
November 7, 2009 9:17 am

Bill Illis (06:12:55) :
According to the MoncKton calculation based on IPCC 2007 worst scenario we would need to shut down our entire industry for 33 years
30 BILLION TONS OF CO2 PER YEAR is the equivilent of 2 ppmv/year = 33 x 2 ppm = 66 ppm of reduction in CO2 which in this scenario would represent 1 degree Fahrenheit
However, according to Lindzen & Choi, 2009, the IPCC scenario is exaggerated by a factor 6 which means we would need almost 200 years (6 x 33) = 198 years or
396 ppm to reduce the temp by 1 degree Fahrenheit.
We all know that our current level of CO2 (388 ppmv) can’t go much lower because otherwise there is no plant life possible (200 ppmv is critical fo plant life)
This also proves that most of the Human Induced CO2 is absorbed by natural sinks.
Therefore the entire theory is BOGUS.

Richard Hanson
November 7, 2009 9:37 am

You could also add the fact that when the US and Europe’s emissions are subtracted from the world total this Rest-of-World amount equals the world total of around 1987. Plus, the five year average annual increase of emissions in 1987 would only be half the rate of increase as the Rest-of-World’s today. Therefore, even if the US and Europe ceased to exist (sob!), in about 10 years annual emissions would be about what they are today.

LarryOldtimer
November 7, 2009 10:04 am

As it happens, as I will be 74 by the end of this year, I actually lived under the circumstances the eco-whackos and warmmongers want all of us to live with. I lived on a farm in Iowa before the Rural Electrification Administration brought power lines into our area.
Outhouse. Hand pumped water. The kitchen the only warm room in the farmhouse in winter, heated by the same wood stove food was cooked on. High temperatures and humidity in summer, without letup, day and night. Bath once a week with warm water heated on a wood stove. All bathing in turn with the same water. Kerosene lamps for light. Cooling water by wrapping a wet burlap bag around a gallon jug of water and hanging the jug from a tree branch, and hope for a breeze. No refrigerators of course, put meat or other perishables in sort of water-tight containers under water in the hand dug well. Kitchen still the warmest room . . . hell in summer as the wood stove had to be kept burning to cook food on.
Then came REA, and it was soon another world. Running water, and heated when needed. Just turn on a tap. Septic tank and a flush toilet. An actual bathtub, with hot and cold water as needed. Clean water not having been used by others for bathing. Lighting at the flick of a switch. A real refrigerator, even ice for drinks in the summer. An electric range, quick on and off at the turn of a dial. No bucket of water with a broom in it next to the wood burning range to adjust the temperature of the oven when bread had to be baked. And wonder of wonders, even an electric fan to help keep cool in summer.
Yes, I do indeed know how to live under those circumstances. Of course with today’s environmental regulations, the wood stove would be outlawed, makes smoke after all. Lots of luck for all of you younger folks.
What a world of madness it has become. How to commit national suicide quickly and easily.
Perhaps it would be best to invest in down comforters and feather beds. And shot and shell to prevent theft of the down comforters and feather beds.
Now some of you may think that I was too young then to still remember those days. Well, when it is 2:00 AM in winter, with a foot or snow to trudge through to get to the outhouse, and the temperature outside is hovering around 5 degrees below zero, and you have to take a crap and the chamber pot is already full, it tends to make a lasting impression on a child. The bricks heated on the stove and wrapped in flannel were sure nice to have in bed with you. Didn’t last the night of course, but at least at first a bit of warmth.

TA
November 7, 2009 10:05 am

Actually, the more I think about it, I think this graph is quite misleading. The purpose as I see it is to compare CO2 emissions of the technologically and economically advanced world vs. the less advanced world. It seems all these global warming meetings are asking for the more advanced world to make the changes.
To fairly show the contrast, then, there would need to be one line for the technologically and economically advanced world combined (US, Europe, Canada, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and maybe some a few other small ones) and another line for the less advanced world combined (China, India, Africa, S. America, et al.) This would show which portion of the global emissions would be dealt with and which portion would be left out.
This graph would look very different from the one shown in the article, and I think it would be more fair.

Willis Eschenbach
November 7, 2009 11:37 am

son of mulder (04:28:29), you raise an interesting issue:

I assume your table is different from a table that would show CO2 produced as a consequence of personal consumpsion by country eg in your table the UK is low but how does it look after factoring in the stuff we import from China. UK GDP is a lot of financial sevices so relatively low industrial production, House prices in the UK are in GDP as I understand it. Someone must have an absolute per capita measure that reflects CO2 effective footprint per capita. On an individual and country basis I bet it tells a much different story. Albeit a story that would still show how messing with with trade would screw up poorer countries’s GDP as they so depend on the consumpsion of others.

Unlike the chart at the top of this thread, the table has nothing to do with CO2. It measures “energy intensity”, which is the amount of energy used to produce a dollar’s worth of goods.
There are measures of CO2 production per capita such as you request. However, this thread is not about that.
It is about how constraining the CO2 production of Western Europe and the US (Austria, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Denmark, Faeroe Islands, Finland, France, Gibraltar, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Macedonia, Malta, Montenegro, Netherlands, Norway, Norway, Portugal, Serbia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, and the United States) will make no difference to the global CO2 levels.

Kate
November 7, 2009 12:24 pm

” Ron de Haan (08:54:27) :
Kate, do you have a copy or a download for the report you refer to?
Thanks in advance.”
…No web link, sorry. Only a Word document which is full of mathematical data and references which even I struggle to understand. Their conclusion, however, is very understandable, and it’s one reason to be incensed at the hijacking of the West’s democratic process by pressure groups like Greenpeace. Their alibi -to be “saving the planet”- is the Biggest Lie in the World.

Kate
November 7, 2009 12:35 pm

“Carbon footprint” – a stupid concept
The origins of the notion of a “carbon footprint” can be traced to racism.
Virtually every time I turn the TV on, I am told to turn it off by a Government advert. In the name of “Act on CO2”, we are supposed to turn off all appliances, lower our thermostats, and generally obsess about our “carbon footprint”. This concept has entered popular discourse without substantial debate, so it is this I seek to redress, with a little help from a brilliant new book called “Energise” by Woudhuysen and Kaplinsky.
Hundreds of websites and newspaper supplements badger us to calculate and reduce our “carbon footprint”. Added to the phenomenon of recycling, which in many areas carries penalties for those who do not recycle, and we have a kind of 21st century ritual where people find meaning and absolution in sorting out their rubbish and using less energy. But like all rituals promoted by the authorities, it encourages slavishness and conformity.
And with regard to nuclear energy, don’t worry about the problem of radioactive waste: recent scientific experiments have found ways to deradiate the waste, so it can be reused.
What we currently live under is the alternative to a rational energy policy – instead of Governments leading the way in cleaning up energy, they moralise to individuals to cut their “carbon footprint”. Unfortunately this beckons further state intervention into our private lives. The recent development of “Smart” meters which the Government wants in every home will monitor all our energy consumption. Given the Government’s notorious authoritarian bent, pretty soon such meters will be used as devices to spy on citizens and punish those who use too much energy and do not conform to the ritual of cutting the “carbon footprint”. School children are also now routinely encouraged to spy on their parents to see if they’re turning off all the lights at night – this encourages an Orwellian situation where parents become afraid of their kids in case they grass them up.
The concept of the carbon footprint is a logically flawed concept for four reasons:
Firstly, it seeks to compare all human activities and find a common denominator in the shape of their so-called “greenhouse gas” emissions. But this approach doesn’t look at the human worth of a human activity – it only looks at its impact on the environment. This is a lousy anti-human approach to ethics. As Woudhuysen and Kaplinsky argue, “the carbon footprint idea strips each individual and social activity of its merits and dissolves all goals into one: add up your carbon impact and reduce it. In this scheme, the value of regularly visiting your ailing grandmother by car is of course not comparable with the value of flying an artificial heart to save someone’s life. Such things can never be quantified…The question is not what their activity adds to the world in human terms, only the resources it takes away.” Instead a decent approach to ethics would examine the worth of human activities on their own terms, not abstract from what is worthwhile to find a common negative, and then say that is the problem.
Secondly, the concept of a “carbon footprint” is a misnomer because “greenhouse gases” go up into the sky and then fall to Earth where they are absorbed into the biosphere and the sea – they are not trodden in the soil by feet. The related idea of the carrying capacity of the land was first used by colonial authorities in Northern Rhodesia to speculate about and warn against future population growth among black Africans – a particular concern among white settlers. So the origins of the notion of a “carbon footprint” can be traced to racism.
Thirdly, the concept is moralism dressed up as science. It wears pseudo-scientific clothes in its mathematical adding up of different activities – but the whole idea that consumption of energy is a problem derives from morality and ideology, not an objective study of the world.
Fourthly, the campaign to reduce everyone’s “carbon footprint” is actually a stupid way to deal with the problems presented by climate change. In impoverished areas like Bangladesh, where there are threats of increased flooding, what is needed is more development, not less. This means increasing our “carbon footprint”, not reducing it. And with regard to energy, a rational energy supply should replace moralising. There’s also the possibility of different types of geo-engineering to combat the effects of destructive weather patterns.
Whatever solution is preferred, it is better than the campaign to cut the “carbon footprint” which won’t do much to save the environment – turning your thermostat down or driving a Toyota Prius won’t actually do much for the planet.

Ron de Haan
November 7, 2009 12:57 pm