October 2009 UAH Global Temperature Update +0.28 deg. C
by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
YR MON GLOBE NH SH TROPICS
2009 1 +0.304 +0.443 +0.165 -0.036
2009 2 +0.347 +0.678 +0.016 +0.051
2009 3 +0.206 +0.310 +0.103 -0.149
2009 4 +0.090 +0.124 +0.056 -0.014
2009 5 +0.045 +0.046 +0.044 -0.166
2009 6 +0.003 +0.031 -0.025 -0.003
2009 7 +0.411 +0.212 +0.610 +0.427
2009 8 +0.229 +0.282 +0.177 +0.456
2009 9 +0.422 +0.549 +0.294 +0.511
2009 10 +0.284 +0.271 +0.298 +0.328
The global-average lower tropospheric temperature anomaly in October 2009 fell from +0.42 deg. C in September to +0.28 deg. C in October. The tropical and Northern Hemisphere were responsible for this cooling.
The global-average sea surface temperature anomalies in October continued their fall from the peak in July, despite the irregular onset of El Nino conditions:
The daily running 3-day average SSTs through early November shows no let-up in this cooling:
As usual, the linear trend lines in the previous two figures should not be construed as having any predictive power whatsoever — they are for entertainment purposes only.
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I’m not saying anything until good ol’ El Nino does its job! And it’s not looking too bad so far by the way…
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/monitoring/soi30.png
The Next La Nina could be very interesting…
imapopulist (10:45:14) :
“Why has Ch05 recently been indicating temperatures at record highs? Could you explain the apparent discrepancy with the above charts?”
imapopulist, Did your question answered? The graphs at the uah website are generated from satellites that experience orbital drift. Through time, the temperatures are skewed to a higher end. RSS adjusts these temperatures before releasing a monthly average. UAH uses a non-drifting satellite for its calculation of a monthly average. UAH does intend at some point in time to load its non-drifting satellite daily data onto its website. Of course, that would make difficult the comparison to historical data generated by drifting satellites.
I see nothing alarming whatsoever in the data, nothing at all to justify economy-crippling carbon cap and trade legislation, and nothing that shows a correlation between increasing human CO2 emissions and atmospheric temperature. Has Climate “Czar” Carol Browner seen this, I wonder? Would she care? Why the hell do we have people called “Czars” dictating U.S. policy, and why is there no Senate oversight of these “Czars?”
SST’s are currently going down, but El Nino is picking up.
Daily SOI has turned back to an upward trend after crashing since sometime around mid-October and are positive again
http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/30DaySOIValues/
Place your bets.
Ray (10:03:46) : “If the Global Average Sea Temperature goes down, it is safe to assume that the whole planet is cooling down (negative slope) since the ocean surface represents 70.8%. Obviously the IPCC models don’t show that at all.”
Not really. SSTs are used because satellites can measure SSTs accurately, not because SSTs are a measure of global warming or cooling.
SSTs are not the same as Ocean Heat Content, which does measure whether the Earth’s climate is warming or cooling.
SSTs are best viewed as a measure of the heat flow from the oceans into the atmosphere (and from there into space). SSTs on their own say nothing about whether the climate is warming or cooling. Only in relation to OHC do they tell us whether warming or cooling is occuring.
Increasing SSTs relative to OHC means the climate is cooling.
Decreasing SSTs relative to OHC mean the climate is warming.
And no, I didn’t get those the wrong way round.
Bob Tisdale:
Althought NINO3.4 is climbing, global SST as whole is diving. It certainly is not relatively small NINO3.4 area alone which defines forecoming TLT anomalies. To me it seems that because of some reason El Nino is not as dominant as earlier concerning temp data.
This is clearly a fraud by all you powerful minority with vested interests, as a means to hold the world to ransom. After all Kevin Rudd says so:
”
Sydney, Nov 6 (AFP) Powerful climate change skeptics were “holding the world to ransom”, Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd said today as he warned of fear campaigns designed to derail global talks.
Rudd said naysayers were active in every country as the world approached the United Nations’ climate summit in Copenhagen in December.
“They are a minority. They are powerful. And invariably they are driven by vested interests,” he said.
Rudd said it was difficult to move towards a global agreement in the face of those who denied climate change was caused by human activity, those who refused to act on the evidence, or who wanted other countries to act first.
“As we approach Copenhagen, these three groups of climate skeptics are quite literally holding the world to ransom,” he told policy think-tank the Lowy Institute in Sydney.
“
Philib_B:
You claim that it is possible that the climate is warming if SSTs and OHC are both going down (SSTs a bit faster) for 100 years for example. I think that you are wrong. Final state can be 100% ice-covered planet…
We’re currently having the July/August pressure dome pattern resulting in an Indian Summer and I just heard the Ice Cream Truck nearby, something that didn’t happen during October.
Meanwhile on the other side of the world, Intellicast shows the traditional cold pool over Siberia is set to expand a bit in the east as it slowly pushes into China, the trade-off is above freezing air going northward near Moscow.
Australia is showing very hot conditions while South America is not showing anything like that, Africa is showing heat in the usual hot locations, Europe is not hot, but not super cold either.
Here in Saskatchewn, Canada, we are having an incredibly warm November, after a brutally cold October. Today it hit plus 16C, almost unheard of for this time of year. The next week is to be warm as well, with daytime temps above freezing everyday. For Saskatchewan, that’s amazing.
I noticed this post on climate sanity:
http://climatesanity.wordpress.com/page/2/
The suggestion is that global sea level rise rate (mm/yr) gives a sneak preview of global temperature (but from a correlation from only 10 years data). The prediction implicit in the right end of the graph, that global temps will follow sea level change rate downward, seems to be happening for now.
Could d/dt sea level indicate movements of heat in the ocean?
What gets me is that here you have all these positive anomalies, yet so many more record lows are being set as compared to record highs.
Winter comes earlier, spring is later.
Are anomalies the best tool we have for examining global climate?
Alan Haile (10:28:48) : “Richard Littlejohn is a right wing popular commentator who especially targets political stupidity.”
Cushy job, given the target-rich environment.
“They are a minority. They are powerful. And invariably they are driven by vested interests,”
“As we approach Copenhagen, these three groups of climate skeptics are quite literally holding the world to ransom,”
So Anthony, how much $$$ do you think you can get out of them before you give them back their global warming?
I know this is a ‘weather is not climate’, but snow cover over the top 100m of Mt Benson, Nanaimo, Vancouver Island BC was observed this morning.
Warming? Where?
Predicting exact monthly UAH anomalies until the year 2109:
http://lh5.ggpht.com/_4ruQ7t4zrFA/SvSRHZCL1_I/AAAAAAAADfk/gT1kp-mmiE8/uah-predictions-2109-cool2.JPG
http://motls.blogspot.com/2009/11/predicting-exact-monthly-uah-anomalies.html
Send this to Copenhagen.
Hi Ron de Haan,
I don’t think I’d want to send that image to Hopenhagen — it makes the next 100 years look really bad. No one is going to get excited about forecasts beyond 100 years in the AGW camp.
“No el nino peak?”
If you look at past el ninos, temperatures do not normally start rising noticeably until November or December. Normally at this time of year the temperature will be quite close to the 30 year trend.
rbateman (16:27:44) :
What gets me is that here you have all these positive anomalies, yet so many more record lows are being set as compared to record highs.
Winter comes earlier, spring is later.
Are anomalies the best tool we have for examining global climate?
The “record lows” appear to be limited to the US (i.e. 2% of the earth’s surface). There haven’t been any record lows in the Arctic recently (see polar temperature link). Europe has been mostly above average. The same goes for South America and much of Asia.
What do you suggest we use to examine global climate. Anecdotes from random US posters, perhaps?
Leone (14:08:46) : You wrote, “Althought NINO3.4 is climbing, global SST as whole is diving.”
It is? Here’s the weekly global SST anomalies through October 28, 2009.
http://i33.tinypic.com/mu9578.png
It’s showing an upswing in response to the recent surge in NINO3.4 SST anomalies:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/11/nino34-sst-anomalies-make-surge.html
Regards
rbateman (16:27:44) :
“What gets me is that here you have all these positive anomalies, yet so many more record lows are being set as compared to record highs.
Winter comes earlier, spring is later.
Are anomalies the best tool we have for examining global climate?”
Your right to question this! Global average temperature (and anomalies to some LTA) convey no useful information about climate trends.
The only meaningful measure is change to total climate system dynamic energy level. Unfortunately, at the moment, it is not possible to get an accurate enough measure of changes in system energy, due to the chaotic nature of the systems which effect them.
Bob Tisdale:
Pictures sent by Roy Spencer are more recent and AMSR-E shows diving. Is there divergence between these datas (Spencer’s and yours)? Or will data used by you continue diving when next couple of weeks are in?
Re: SST plots
Can anyone confirm that Roy’s AMSR-E SST data is the same as the sea surface readings at
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps
Using all data available as the base period (i.e. 2002-2009) I get the following (approximate) anomalies for the most recent months
Jul +0.16
Aug +0.11
Sep +0.06
Oct +0.04
These values seem to match up pretty well with the monthly SST plot above
(plot 2 of 3). However, my numbers disagree with the 3-day plot (plot 3 of 3). Roy seems to have negative anomalies in late Oct/early Nov whereas my calculations give positive anomalies. I do, though, get negative anomalies between 29th Sep and 4th Oct.
I was hoping to find a reason for the apparent discrepancy between Bob Tisdale’s plots and Roy’s as commented upon by Leone. I think Bob is probably correct, i.e. the fall in SST from the peak in July has stopped and SST are starting to rise again.
Leone (08:28:59) : You wrote, “Pictures sent by Roy Spencer are more recent and AMSR-E shows diving.”
Yes, you’re right. They were newer. I waited to reply until NOAA updated their weekly OI.v2 data. Here’s the global since 2000, for the week ending Nov 4. It also shows the minor upswing and downturn, like Dr. Specer’s data:
http://i34.tinypic.com/245wr6e.png
John Finn: You wrote, “I think Bob is probably correct, i.e. the fall in SST from the peak in July has stopped and SST are starting to rise again.”
The latest weekly data is showing the downturn similar to Dr. Spencer’s as noted above to Leone