Lucia beat me to a post on this, so I’ll give her the honor here. Interesting thing though, the delay of Hadley may have provided a better data presentation. – Anthony
Guest Post by Lucia from The Blackboard
Guess what? The much anticipated Hadley monthly surface temperature anomalies are now available. I always use the NH+SH simple average.
Guess what else? According to this metric, the global surface temperature anomaly September 2009 cooled relative to August 2009 dropping from0.548C to 0.457C. In contrast, GISSTemp, NOAA/NCDC, UAH and RSS all reported distinctly warmer anomalies in September relative to August. This divergence is a pit surprising– though I’d have to plough through numbers to see if this sort of mismatch is unprecedented in the record.
One of the interesting happenings this month was Hadley’s decision to delay processing because they considered the some data they received to be obviously wrong. We don’t have details on precisely what was wrong about it, but I noticed large blanked out areas on their map:
Figure 1: Missing temperatures in Africa.
The blanked out areas do seem to be surrounded by warm regions. Maybe the computed value for September’s monthly average will rise when that region reports data Hadley trusts. In the meantime, Hadley’s September temperature is low relative to the other metrics.
Since we anticipate October temperature will be reported soon, and I suspect some revisions for September, I’ll just show the trends based on reported temperatures since both 2000 and 2001, and also compare them anomalies to the multi-model mean anomalies from the AR4 climate models driven by the A1B SRES.
Figure 2: Trends since 2000 and 2001As you can see, EL Nino has caused temperatures to rise; the anomalies for individual months values are currently approaching the mean value projected by the models. As El Nino warms further, the observations for individual months may finally catch and surpass the models, as the do from time to time. However, it’s going to take sustained warming for the trends since either 2001 or 2000 to catch up with the projections. Will it happen? We’ll wait and see.
I left this comment on Lucia’s thread, which I will repeat here:
Lucia, I don’t think this is anything out of the ordinary to have so may data holes. Look at GISS for September:
Link to original at GISS is here
The trend of missing stations in GHCN continues. It appears that Hadley actually has more stations than GISS. Maybe the delay was to allow more trickle in of late reporters. – Anthony
Intriguing comments. Many posters here seem to not understand that (a) Looking at month-to-month variability in the context of climate is just wrong (b) Surely people know that the weather in your region the past month, season is not necessarily representative of the global SATs? (c) reading the posts here one gets the clear impression that warming projected to occur by 2100 should be occurring now, and b/c it is not then something is horrible wrong. Yes there is, with people’s misconceptions
(a) is wrong because– one month’s data does not constitute climate, not even remotely close. Also there seems to be an expectation that each month should be warmer than its predecessor– nope. Even looking at year-to-year changes in mean annual global SAT anomalies does not make sense b/c of internal climate variability. Also, b/c of the unequal distribution of land across the globe, the global SATs actually varies from month-to-month and peaks in the Boreal summer (one can see this in the AMSU temp data); so strictly speaking one should really only compare all Septembers, all Octobers etc., and not September with August.
According to the CRU data, this was the third warmest September globally on record behind 2003 and 2005. GISSTemp ranked September 2009 the second warmest on record.
JP (13:14:31) : “HadCrut uses a 1961-1990 baseline. If they did use a 1980-1999 baseline, I imagine there would be negative anomalies every month, as the 80-99 baseline contains some of the warmest temps of the 20th Century.’
Exactly. So what is it that is so special about the 1961-1990 baseline?
Is it special because it gives the required larger positive anomolies? Why not use the infamous 1979-2000 baseline that is used for Arctic ice so one can compare the two anomolies side by side.
Numpty – I first came across the widespread usage in Special1TV. This series was hilariously funny if you were somewhat into the Euro football (soccer) scene:
http://www.youtube.com/user/SPECIAL1TV
My favourite was this one which also introduced “get me the tank” and used numpties:
http://www.youtube.com/user/SPECIAL1TV#p/u/16/b-0kCLkNW9c
Special One is the real life nickname of Jose Mourinho:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jos%C3%A9_Mourinho
who is somewhat of a character to say the least. The Special1TV show was all the more impressive when one considers that all the voices were done by one man:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_1_TV
A sez (I inserted the link):
“This is what their database says, I’m waiting for the “official” press release from NOAA before I write anything about this. Should be interesting.”
Interesting indeed…
I’m betting NOAA reports October, 2009 as the 113th warmest on record.
Tom in Florida (16:54:23) & JP (13:14:31): The KNMI Climate Explorer will allow you to select the base years for the anomalies on all of the datasets they have online. If you’re not up to downloading the raw data and creating your own graphs, they also have utilities that allow you to compare multiple datasets. (I haven’t used those options since I do create my own graphs.) They have features that I haven’t tried yet. Great site.
http://climexp.knmi.nl/selectfield_obs.cgi?someone@somewhere
Regards
Now this is astounding. Central Europe is definitely above normal and showing a warm anomaly… and to think, just a month later:
“October 22nd. A weather station in Berchtesgaden National Park in Bavaria has recorded the coldest temperature ever in Germany during the month of October”
For umpteenth time time TEXAS is a big state and the climate across this large state can and does VARY GREATLY.
North Central Texas (the Dallas Ft. Worth area) had an unusually COOL Sept, although our July and a hot streak …
.
.
The jet stream just doesn’t know where to go. It is as loopy as I have ever seen it. And I am on my second glass of red wine so I would say nearly the same thing about me. Hot one day, freezing my ass off the next. Right now in Pendleton we have a warm brisk wind blowing up our skirts, but the dried grass will be crunchy by morning. Kind of like my Tomato Jam. It doesn’t know whether to be hot and spicy or sweet and nice.
At least we are now getting to the point of studying graphs that reflect the complexity of the climate system here on Earth. Given the fact that you need to be stone cold sober to read this stuff anymore is a testament to the realization that climate study is not for the faint of heart, the simple minded, warmists, or redheads who like chocolate and red wine.
I have more than likely crossed the line and am in ad-hominy land. Or whatever the word is.
Is the US that hot in September? I certainly didn’t feel that way in where I live (Denver).
welllllllll….er……um………….nevermind.
Since NASA is funded by the government is it copacetic that someone from the government could order an audit of any or every department of any or all of its activities? I am aiming at GISS in asking this.
Or, since the government is funded by the citizens can the citizens order an audit of an agency funded by the government?
They’ve got the whole Midwest Corn Belt a white hole. It was very, very cool all over it. Very, very cool. The corn was running 5, and 6 weeks late due to the cool, rainy weather.
RockyMtn (16:53:19) :
“Intriguing comments. Many posters here seem to not understand that (a) Looking at month-to-month variability in the context of climate is just wrong”
Maybe HadCRUT would appreciate it if you send them a memo to that effect.
As to us, we are just commenting on their data for the Month of September.
Personally, I don’t trust these guys any more than those who use massaged Ocean Temp data. That is why my posts have been contrasting a few actual temperatures measured on the ground by people for whom knowing the real temp is essential to their work, with alleged temps determined by those desiring to push a political agenda.
Lance (12:20:27) I live in Calgary and am very surprised at your contention of 3C above average for September. Seems very, very generous to me.
Kum, it was cool by you, understood. Hope the crops are OK. That said, what does that have to do with global temps.? Apart from seemingly confusing weather and climate, you need to also keep in mind that the USA represents a meagre 1.9% of the total surface area of the globe. Global warming/cooling refers to the mean global temperature increasing/decreasing on a decadal time scale.
Anyhow, that 1.9% is something to keep in mind the next time you think about temperature extremes in the USA. Look at that map above, a whole lot of positive temperature departures, hence the second warmest September on record, and much of that red was over the ocean (no UHI effect there).
We also need to keep in mind that the CRU data do not represent the Arctic well, and that is very likely why GISTemp had September ranked the second warmest and while the CRU had it ranked the third warmest, b/c there was an awful lot of open water north of the Arctic circle in September.
PS: The map above clearly shows the negative temperature anomalies in Sept. over OK, KS, TX, CO– hard to tell exactly though, resolution is not great.
Lance (12:20:27) :
According to the data for Calgary on WolframAlpha, the high for this last year was 92F in Sept of 2004 , for the last 5 years it was 93F in Aug of 2008, for the last 10 years it was 94F in July of 2001, and for as far back as the record goes (1958) the high was 96F in 1984.
If you look at their temps for the last 10 years, there’s no sign of any trend up or down in the yearly averages. (Unless you call 0.032F +/- 0.038F per year a “trend.”)
NZ Willy (16:35:25) :
October was a record low here in NZ as well, officially coldest since 1945.
Can I have a link?
OOPS
In my last, yonason (22:34:53, I said “If you look at their temps for the last 10 years” etc., but that should have read “If you look at their temps for the last 51 years”, with regard to the calculated “trend”, even though data from 1967 to 1977 appears to be missing.
I do wish we could compare apples to apples. What was the temp like when we had the last El Nino? Here’s a thought. Average up all the temps during El Nino months. Average up all the temps during neutral months. And average up all the temps during La Nina months. Then compare within those parameters. That way people will be able to get an idea of what is normal under certain conditions.
Yonason “Maybe HadCRUT would appreciate it if you send them a memo to that effect.”
You misunderstood. The CRU issues a bulletin each month just as the NCDC and other meteorological/climate agencies a around the world do. However, they, like the NCDC, they compare all Septembers etc and look at long-term trends in annual temperatures, as should be done.
Generating these maps requires a lot of work and is an immensely complex task, so don’t be so quick to dismiss it. Should we check the data? Oh yes! I have had nasty experiences using data that was given to me which was allegedly “good”. And besides, they do check the data following this “first” release.
What I sense is going on here is people being very cynical rather than being constructive– critiquing is easy. Keep in mind that the MSU data have issues too. So do the radiosonde data– that is the nature of the beast when dealing with diverse (and sometimes complex) data collection platforms distributed non-uniformly around the globe. Not to mention homogenization issues. Maybe someone here would be willing to develop a 100+ year global SAT and SST database?
When you refer to the “massaged” ocean temperature data, what are you referring to exactly and how were the data “massaged”? Are you referring to the Argo floats and/or issues with the XBTs?
Rockymtn, why was this September warm? And why were the other record Septembers warm? If you don’t know then you cannot possibly comment intelligently on climate change versus weather variability. By the way, where do you think the data for linear trends come from? Climate or weather? Is it linear trended climate or linear trended weather?
Pamela, they do that already. See for example,
http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/enso/index.html
The existence of these internal climate modes (ENSO, PDO, NAO) are why it is essential to take decadal averages when looking for statistically significant and meaningful trends.
RockyMtn (22:46:40) :
“they compare all Septembers”
Actually, if JP (13:14:31) is correct, that’s not altogether true. They appear to have set an arbitrary baseline, selected to make their results look as formidable as possible.
Also, that was just my feeble attempt at humor (directed at the source of the data, not you). Your point is actually well taken with regard to anecdotal evidence like, “well it’s the hottest/coldest/most normal that I can remember in my however many years.”
And yes, the Argo floats of actual temperatures were discounted in favor of satellite data of sea height, which can depend on factors other than temperature (like tree rings respond to more variables than just temperature). Also, they always seem to be “adjusting” the numbers, which makes me nervous since I don’t know how they do that. And with their agenda pushing I don’t trust them to be free enough of bias to get those “adjustments” right.