Bob Tisdale writes:
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Make A Surge
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies have reached 1.5 deg C for the week centered on October 28, 2009.
http://i37.tinypic.com/nzoyvn.png
NINO3.4 SST AnomaliesSOURCEOI.v2 SST data is available through the NOAA NOMADS website:
http://nomad3.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh?lite
Here’s a look at the current global SST map:
John (06:10:41) :
But in 2009, we seem to be in a negative PDO, contrary to in 1998. Several authors opine that there won’t be any temperature increases for a decade or more because of a negative PDO.
So it will be interesting to see if the El Nino and higher SSTs cause increasing heat in the top 700 meters of the ocean, or whether the negative PDO will prevent or minimize such heat gain.
The PDO index was positive in August and September:
2009** -1.40 -1.55 -1.59 -1.65 -0.88 -0.31 -0.53 0.09 0.52
THEY’RE GETTING DESPERATE?
“The high-quality Argo data has been embarrassing Warmists because it shows the ocean as cooling. So what to do? Say that the sensors showing most cooling are “bad” and discard their data.” — John Ray (lead article)
See also here
http://jennifermarohasy.com/blog/2008/11/correcting-ocean-cooling-nasa-changes-data-to-fit-the-models/
While ARGO measures actual temperature, satellites measure changes in ocean height, a proxy for temperature which couldn’t possibly have any cause other than temperature. And, of course it has to be the ARGO sensors that are “bad” because satellites never malfunction. And besides, satellites give the kind of data that’s expected/desired, so of course they must be right.
Bob Tisdale (04:01:47) :
Have you been keeping an eye on the Sea Surface HEIGHT anomaly maps? If you were to run back through the archived JPL SSH maps you’ll notice that those warm anomalies (they’re subsurface since they don’t show in the surface maps) appear to be feeding the central equatorial Pacific, fueling the El Nino. You can see the same thing happening during the 1994/95 El Nino in a JPL video that compares maps of SSH and SST. It’s kind of choppy
I think it would be useful to compare the current situation to other similar scenarios. There is always going to be slightly different circumstances but it seems many of the moderate events look exactly the same, the big events seem to be similar etc.
Interesting that the chart shows declining El Nino intensities right back to 1992 if one ignores the 1998 freak event.
Leif Svalgaard (09:13:19) :
tallbloke (06:52:07) :
because they are not being forced to mix excess incoming energy downwards.
The ‘excess’ is exceeding small, and what ‘forces’ the mixing anyway. You are saying that a 1/1000 deficit stops mixing in the oceans…
Well the calculations I did which you verified showed a forcing 1993-2003 equivalent to 4W/m2 ‘excess’ energy, which is not exceedingly small compared to the radiative forcing attributed to co2, but rather, over twice as big.
What forces the mixing is the fact that the ocean can only emit energy at a certain rate due to atmospheric constraints, and the S-B law. Incoming energy above that rate has to go somewhere else, and logic dictates that since down is the only direction available, down it is. Logic also dictates that there must be an equilibrium level where the enrgy in equals the energy out. Therefore, when the suns activity is below par, energy comes out of the ocean. Otherwise, they’d have boiled away long ago.
I’m not saying anything “stops mixing in the oceans”, just the opposite. In any case It’s the direction of the energy flow we are interested in is it not?
Leif Svalgaard (04:42:32) :
tallbloke (00:39:40) :
When the sun is very quiet, the oceans go into heat release mode. …
… How do the oceans know that the sun is very quiet?
I would also like to ask how 4C ocean tempeatures release heat to 15C air temps?
AND
How the heat is stored for 5 years without mixing/conducting and away from the air.
AND
why the sea temperatures round the UK continental shelf (I’m sure it happens elswhere!) can change by 14C in 6 months e.g.
http://www.cefas.co.uk/data/sea-temperature-and-salinity-trends/presentation-of-results/station-7-cromer.aspx
i.e. the temperature reacts quickly to changes in insolation
The discussion about 700 meter depths is contra-indicated by experience in the Anti-submarine community. There is a “thermocline” where the surface water temperatures changes to much colder temperatures. Very seldom is the thermocline any where near as deep as 700 meters.
What is so strange, is the assumption that 700 meters is an appropriate depth to measure the above Thermocline near SST temperatures. When SST rise there is an upwelling of warm water, and a COOLING of the water of the surface as it radiates Heat to the atmosphere and space.
tallbloke (11:03:19) :
Well the calculations I did which you verified showed a forcing 1993-2003 equivalent to 4W/m2 ‘excess’ energy, which is not exceedingly small compared to the radiative forcing attributed to co2, but rather, over twice as big.
It is nonsense to compare with something you yourself don’t believe in. The energy to compare with is the incoming energy over the time when you have the excess. How big is that?
the ocean can only emit energy at a certain rate due to atmospheric constraints
A body emits radiation according to the temperature it has, independent of everything else.
tallbloke (11:03:19) :
Therefore, when the suns activity is below par, energy comes out of the ocean.
Sure, when the incoming is smaller by 1/1000, the temperature will be 1/4000 lower and if there is heat at depth, that 1/4000 will be made up from that, until that heat is gone and the temperature can stabilize at 1/4000 less [=0.07 K].
Leif Svalgaard (11:31:02) :
A body emits radiation according to the temperature it has, independent of everything else.
Radiation isn’t the only means by which the oceans emit heat energy into the atmosphere. When humidity levels and air temperatures are high, less convection occurs. When there is more high cloud cover, air temperatures stay higher at night.
bill (11:21:16) :
Leif Svalgaard (04:42:32) :
tallbloke (00:39:40) :
When the sun is very quiet, the oceans go into heat release mode. …
… How do the oceans know that the sun is very quiet?
I would also like to ask how 4C ocean tempeatures release heat to 15C air temps?
AND
How the heat is stored for 5 years without mixing/conducting and away from the air.
AND
why the sea temperatures round the UK continental shelf (I’m sure it happens elswhere!) can change by 14C in 6 months e.g.
http://www.cefas.co.uk/data/sea-temperature-and-salinity-trends/presentation-of-results/station-7-cromer.aspx
i.e. the temperature reacts quickly to changes in insolation.
As Leif points out, radiation occurs regardless of relative temperatures
AND
Increases in steric sea level measured continuously by satellites for 17 years are strong evidence for heat retention lower down towards the thermocline
AND
Shallow waters warm and cool more quickly, but are a very small fraction of the global oceans.
Leif, I should have mentioned evaporation too.
Let the sun shine in!
Cold water will release heat to warmer air by evaporation. Not by radiation.
The energy needed to evaporate water comes from the water not from the air.
Common science say that the cold water west of africa 30 N is by uppwelling but take a look of this map: http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs/viewer.shtml?-natl-temp-700-small-rundate=latest
Seems to me that is not a uppwelling but a downwelling caused by dry air from africa picking up moist and by that cool the ocean surface west of africa
Evaporation that cause the clouds that move latent heat to higher latitudes.
Leif Svalgaard (11:37:36) :
tallbloke (11:03:19) :
Therefore, when the suns activity is below par, energy comes out of the ocean.
Sure, when the incoming is smaller by 1/1000, the temperature will be 1/4000 lower and if there is heat at depth, that 1/4000 will be made up from that, until that heat is gone and the temperature can stabilize at 1/4000 less [=0.07 K].
Heh. In the context of average sunspot numbers over periods of years , this is nonsense.
tallbloke (12:08:22) :
Leif, I should have mentioned evaporation too.
I think evaporation occurs even if the Sun gives us 1/1000 less energy…
The ice-melt on the pacific side of antarctica has been sluggish. It will be interesting to see what happens if /when this melt increases.
Note how cold the Southern Ocean is in Anthony’s link (repeated below). Likely due to the large positive sea ice anomaly of the last couple of years. I’ll speculate that the increased sea ice is interfering with the normal poleward transport of heat in the SH, resulting in more heat accumulation toward the Tropics, and heat which would ‘normally’ be lost from the oceans nearer the poles is now lost nearer the tropics, and this is influences SSTs.
Not that I think it is the major influence on SSTs.
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2009/anomnight.11.2.2009.gif
Tallbloke is on a roll it seems.
I can find his statement of the Sun giving energy to the oceans believable, when I go outside when the summer sun is blazing, I at times feel quite a bit of warmth, I can’t really discount the energy the sun brings to everything on Earth, from your own skin to concrete to water.
Anyway, I’ll just keep watching the boxing match between Tallbloke and Lief.
tallbloke (12:28:47) :
Heh. In the context of average sunspot numbers over periods of years , this is nonsense
Not good enough. If there are no spots for a million years followed by a grand maximum for the next million years, the temperature difference between the two periods will be 0.1K. If you change 1,000,000 to 1,000 that will still be true. If you change 1,000 to N. that will still be true, until N is small enough. What is your value of N and how is it derived? [correlations don’t count as that is circular reasoning as you pick N such that what you want to show is true].
tallbloke (11:03:19) :
Well the calculations I did which you verified showed a forcing 1993-2003 equivalent to 4W/m2 ‘excess’ energy, which is not exceedingly small compared to the radiative forcing attributed to co2, but rather, over twice as big.
It is nonsense to compare with something you yourself don’t believe in. The energy to compare with is the incoming energy over the time when you have the excess. How big is that?
You avoided this, so I try again.
Adam from Kansas (14:05:39) :
when I go outside when the summer sun is blazing, I at times feel quite a bit of warmth, I can’t really discount the energy the sun brings to everything on Earth, from your own skin to concrete to water.
Except that right now that warmth must come from the oceans according to tallbloke 🙂
tallbloke (12:05:38) :
I would also like to ask how 4C ocean tempeatures release heat to 15C air temps?
As Leif points out, radiation occurs regardless of relative temperatures
The air is radiating/conducting
the water is radiating/conducting
The air is 15C
The water is 14C
is the water going to warm or is the air going to warm?
Which direction is the energy flow?
Leif Svalgaard (14:11:01) :
If there are no spots for a million years followed by a grand maximum for the next million years, the temperature difference between the two periods will be 0.1K.
If you really believe that there is little hope for any kind of sane discussion here.
bill (14:44:10) :
tallbloke (12:05:38) :
I would also like to ask how 4C ocean tempeatures release heat to 15C air temps?
As Leif points out, radiation occurs regardless of relative temperatures
The air is radiating/conducting
the water is radiating/conducting
The air is 15C
The water is 14C
is the water going to warm or is the air going to warm?
Which direction is the energy flow?
For starters, the average temperature of the ocean surface is around 17C not 4C.
Beyond that there is the fact that longwave radiation from the air cannot penetrate the surface of the ocean further than it’s own wavelength, whereas the longwave radiation from the ocean readily heats the air.