Bob Tisdale writes:
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Make A Surge
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies have reached 1.5 deg C for the week centered on October 28, 2009.
http://i37.tinypic.com/nzoyvn.png
NINO3.4 SST AnomaliesSOURCEOI.v2 SST data is available through the NOAA NOMADS website:
http://nomad3.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh?lite
Here’s a look at the current global SST map:
I would be interested in what SST’s have been comparing El Nino to El Nino. Otherwise we are comparing to an average which does not exist. My hunch is that El Nino strength has peaked in 98 and is slowly decreasing. But I can’t tell for sure unless we compare apples with apples instead of apples with fruit compote.
Tom in Texas (20:10:09) : You asked, “What’s the linear trend on your 1990-2009 graph? Eyeballing, the 20 year trend looks negative.”
The linear trend of the weekly OI.v2 NINO3.4 SST anomalies is negative:
http://i38.tinypic.com/1402dt.png
And so is the linear trend of the monthly OI.v2 NINO3.4 SST anomalies:
http://i34.tinypic.com/34t3d51.png
Leif Svalgaard (18:11:03) :
We expected a bit more than Rocky VI.
Instead we got Gilligan’s Volcano.
Our local Meteorologist did a special week on El Nino’s. A 4C) anomalies do the heavy lifting. And isn’t an El Nino only regarded as official when December rolls in and it’s still kicking?
I am interested by the question about hurricanes and SSTs. Is there a correlation? Is this one of the lesser known intersections of oceanography and meteorology?
Anyone know where one can find information on trade wind strength? Is there anyplace that keeps that sort of information on a regular basis?
OT: Here’s another alarmist story based on “predicted higher temperatures”.
“Climate Change will Burn Yosemite” from the “we’re not biased” BBC:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/earth/hi/earth_news/newsid_8334000/8334472.stm
There is a weekly update on winds with every enso status update issues every Monday. The surface winds are still westerly. The upper level winds are slightly easterly. When the surface winds become easterly and strong, we will have a La Nina, as the east to west equatorial winds blow off the skin of warm water and pile it up against the far East countries along the western edge of the Pacific Ocean.
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
“Andrew S (20:19:05) :
Patrick, comment 1:
Yes, I can confirm it is bloody hot in Sydney today. A southerly change will come through tonight to cool things down. For the rest of the week, the temperature will be around 17-22 deg. C! (Who’d have thought we’d survive a 15-20 deg C change in a single day!)
No doubt, the papers will claim the high temps is due to MMGW and the cold will just be ignored.”
Well the MSM were reporting October was the coldest in 17 years, in New Zealand too but even longer (Since 1942 I think I read). It is warm today, I would not say it is hot (And I’m a pome) and given we just had the coldest October in 17 years, today might feel a bit warm. But this is normal for Sydney when a westerly blows.
Google ‘slow gulf stream’…. there are many reports about the varying speed of the Gulf Stream. Slower speeds are reckoned to transport less heat to northern latitudes. Does anyone know if there is a correlation between the ocean’s capability to transport heat away from the tropics due to current velocities and rapid spikes in tropical ssts?
yes here in New Zealand its was a very cold october. The coldest October in 64 years, with all-time record low October temperatures in many areas. Exceptionally late snowfalls. Record low October temperatures were recorded on the 4th/5th in most North Island locations, and on the 9th at many South Island sites cold October.Here in Christchurch the October monthly avg was 9.8c just 1c warmer than in August.
Well if you have higher SST’s then you have more energy for cyclones to draw upon, however SST’s are only one factor in the strength of a hurricane. Better would be that SST’s limit where they can form. To answer a question asked earlier, yes a cyclone cools the SST as it goes.
Regards
Andy
Bob Tisdale (19:29:05) :
Not sure about the AP’s statisticians. But EXCEL says the linear trend of NINO3.4 SST anomalies from January 1900 to August 2009 is fundamentally flat.
http://i33.tinypic.com/2ihxycn.jpg
Can’t get much flatter than that.
It does look flat but the modulation of both the high’s and low’s does look to fluctuate, tending to follow the overall temperature curve and another wave pattern I know very well. Bob are there any type of records that go back further on SST for that region. If so it would be interesting to see in the same trend continues.
Leif Svalgaard (18:11:03) :
what did you expect?
Exactly this. When the sun is very quiet, the oceans go into heat release mode. I keep saying it in the hope people will listen. 🙂
Bob, on your ‘global SST map’ Tierra del Fuego, Antarctica, Canada, Siberia, Northern Europe and Greenland have disappeared.
Interesting that the pacific warm pool is quite far to the west, instead of originating at the Peruvian coast.
Global SST anomalies according to the MSU SST channel are some 0,03 deg C above 2003-2008 average. I will post 2003-2009 graph with MSU monthly anomalies together with HadSST from home, but they nicely fit except the different baseline.
The SOI has been negative for some time now. From my point this is expected. Then that I think this is a disaster for my prediction that 2009 would be colder than 2008 is another matter.
If the SOI continues to be negative I would expect this El Nino to be stronger. I hope that the SOI will turn positive soon so that 2010 will be colder than 2009 and hopefully 2008.
/Sven Hagström
Sydney also had a big swing in humidity – 82% yesterday, 19% today. I just about fried cycling home – the bike temp gauge put said it was 38 degrees at 6pm!
Yes, everyone will ignore the fact that tomorrow it will be raining and struggling to get into the low 20s.
Geoff Sharp (23:28:41) : You asked, “Bob are there any type of records that go back further on SST for that region. If so it would be interesting to see in the same trend continues.”
You have to keep in mind that the number of observations along the equatorial Pacific increased after the opening of the Panama Canal in 1914. There are also drops in the observations during the two World Wars. I graphed the number of readings for the Cold Tongue Index region recently, data available from JISAO. Since the CTI region (6S-6N, 180 to 90W) encompasses the NINO3.4 region (5S-5N, 170W-120W), the NINO3.4 data should drop off accordingly as one goes back in time.
CTI Observations 1845 to 1991:
http://i34.tinypic.com/in71v5.png
CTI Observations 1900 to 1950:
http://i34.tinypic.com/2ilydeg.png
CTI Observations 1845 to 1900:
http://i35.tinypic.com/wrj0p0.png
With that in mind, here’s the NINO3.4 SST anomalies starting in 1870 with a linear trend. The trend is still relatively flat, less than 0.2 deg C/Century:
http://i37.tinypic.com/4r6mh1.png
And since you were interested in the underlying variations, I’ve thrown on a 5th Order polynomial trend to highlight it. (For those ready to comment about the use of a poly trend line, I’ve added a disclaimer to the graph.)
http://i35.tinypic.com/wjz21j.png
Juraj V. (01:23:32) : You wrote, “Interesting that the pacific warm pool is quite far to the west, instead of originating at the Peruvian coast.”
You have to be careful with your use of the term “Pacific Warm Pool”. The Pacific Warm Pool, also known as the Western Pacific Warm Pool, refers to the area of the Western tropical Pacific where warm waters accumulate due to the Pacific trade winds. It’s sometimes known as the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool since it extends into the Indian Ocean. The Pacific Warm Pool serves as the reservoir of warm water for El Nino events.
Refer to:
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/WarmPool/
Refer also to the Mehta and Mehta discussion:
http://www.crces.org/presentations/dmv_ipwp/
They include an animation of PWP SST (not anomalies) (2.7MB):
http://www.crces.org/presentations/dmv_ipwp/images/SST_WP.MOV
tallbloke (00:44:25) : You wrote, “Bob, on your ‘global SST map’ Tierra del Fuego, Antarctica, Canada, Siberia, Northern Europe and Greenland have disappeared.”
I hate it when Tierra del Fuego disappears. My post included only the NINO3.4 SST anomaly graph.
Anthony: You may wish to delete the word global from the sentence “Here’s a look at the current global SST map.”
rbateman (20:31:13) : You wrote, :We expected a bit more than Rocky VI.
Instead we got Gilligan’s Volcano.”
The El Nino is not done yet, far from it. There are some signficant subsurface temperature anomalies that could work their way to the surface:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml
Also scroll down to the second cross-section, the Equatorial Temperature (not anomaly) illustration. The thermocline is flattening as the warm water works its way to the east.
It’ll be interesting to watch.
Bill Illis: Have you been keeping an eye on the Sea Surface HEIGHT anomaly maps?
http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/science/jason1-quick-look/2009/images/20090917G.jpg
Here’s the archive for those SSH anomaly maps.
http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/science/jason1-quick-look/archive.html
This year there’s a warm pocket in the Northeast Tropical Pacific, on a mild diagonal to the northeast. Refer to the following map. The area I’m talking about would be along the eastern portion of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in this map.
http://www-gte.larc.nasa.gov/img/pemtcirc.gif
If you were to run back through the archived JPL SSH maps you’ll notice that those warm anomalies (they’re subsurface since they don’t show in the surface maps) appear to be feeding the central equatorial Pacific, fueling the El Nino. You can see the same thing happening during the 1994/95 El Nino in a JPL video that compares maps of SSH and SST. It’s kind of choppy but it’s visible here:
http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/gallery/tiffs/videos/SSH-SST.mov
When the El Nino runs its course, I’m gonna try to get a copy of the daily maps from JPL to make a video.
tallbloke (00:39:40) :
Exactly this. When the sun is very quiet, the oceans go into heat release mode. I keep saying it in the hope people will listen. 🙂
So, presumably, you’d expect to see an increase in SST at solar minimum. This is not something that is evident at previous minima.
tallbloke (00:39:40) :
When the sun is very quiet, the oceans go into heat release mode. I keep saying it in the hope people will listen. 🙂
People will listen if it makes sense only. How do the oceans know that the sun is very quiet?