Bob Tisdale writes:
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Make A Surge
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies have reached 1.5 deg C for the week centered on October 28, 2009.
http://i37.tinypic.com/nzoyvn.png
NINO3.4 SST AnomaliesSOURCEOI.v2 SST data is available through the NOAA NOMADS website:
http://nomad3.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh?lite
Here’s a look at the current global SST map:
OT, but Sydney is “boiling” appearntly…
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/sydney-boils-as-mercury-rises-20091103-htsh.html
“”Since that forecast went out we’ve got data back from the balloon we sent out at the airport … we are still on track to get those numbers and it might even bump up to 37 towards the metropolitan area,”
Measuring temperature at the airport!!!
Oh no, not this SEA SURFACE rubbish again!
what did you expect?
What I don’t get is how the above NOAA SST Anomaly chart jives with their other SST anomaly products, especially in the NINO1&2 region where it doesn’t look as warm as the above map where it looks like NINO 1/2 is BLAZING HOT
Ref: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssta_c.gif
and
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssttlon5_c.gif
Bob,
If you gave the Nino 3.4 SST Anomaly data to the AP’s panel of statisticians, would they find a warming trend or a cooling trend?
😉
Does this mean we get a California Monsoon to wash the AGW-induced drought guilt away? 1982-3 was a really great one. 880″ of snow over Donner Summit.
“Oh no, not this El Nino rubbish again” 😎
The Nino is heating up now after being stuck in neutral for several months. The indicators are pointing to a moderate event now.
The colors used in the map make it impossible to separate temperature increases in the 0 to 1.5 degrees. It would appear that there is a background increase of up to 1.5 degrees world wide. I am sure that this is not the case.
And the subsurface anomalies are showing a small pool of high temps, in the 5 to 6 deg C range for the pentad centered on Oct 25:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml
Apparently the SST’s are still lower than last July, considering this article on Tisdale’s own site and the apparent error in the October SST data.
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/
But the Nino 3.4 anomalies are still apparently just below the 2.6 peak on that article (in the link)?
Here’s the actual link to the actual article
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/10/preliminary-october-2009-oiv2-sst.html
Does a lack of hurricanes affect SSTs? The Atlantic hasn’t had a season this quiet in my memory. We’re long told by the Algore that high SSTs power big hurricanes… Do hurricanes extract significant heat from the water? Does a lack of hurricanes mean diminished mixing with colder/deeper water?
I would expect this based on two things:
1. A lack of hurricanes this year
2. El Nino conditions.
But please remember that surface temperatures are related to wind speed. If the trade winds are weaker, there will higher surface temperatures.
Dave Middleton: “If you gave the Nino 3.4 SST Anomaly data to the AP’s panel of statisticians, would they find a warming trend or a cooling trend?”
Not sure about the AP’s statisticians. But EXCEL says the linear trend of NINO3.4 SST anomalies from January 1900 to August 2009 is fundamentally flat.
http://i33.tinypic.com/2ihxycn.jpg
Can’t get much flatter than that.
Adam from Kansas (19:08:40) :
Adam: The link you provided was for the main page. If you’ll link the post you’re discussing, or link the graph (they’re below every illustration), I’ll be happy to reply.
Regards
Unless I’m off my marker, looking at the SST plot and comparing it against the hurricanes, an increase in SST doesn’t look to me to translate into more frequent and more violent hurricanes.
If you look at the rate of the increase since 2008 we should have had an insane hurricane season last year and this, if the Gore’s theory was correct.
So El NIno ain’t dead yet. Which is good news, the dry winters (when we are supposed to get rain / snow) were really bugging me. I hate watering.
Adam from Kansas (19:08:40) :
Okay, I found the link you posted in the next comment (I guess I should’ve scrolled down).
You wrote, “Apparently the SST’s are still lower than last July, considering this article on Tisdale’s own site and the apparent error in the October SST data.”
That’s the preliminary monthly SST anomaly data for October. Don’t be concerned about the error. It’s already been brought back into line this week, and as I discussed in that post, the official OI.v2 SST anomaly data for October is not scheduled to be released until Monday Nov 9.
Also, in the future, could you be more specific, please? There are a bunch of datasets in that post. When you write, “Apparently the SST’s are still lower than last July,” it causes me to ask two questions: Which dataset? and Which July, 2008 or 2009? “Last July” can be interpreted a number of ways.
To rbateman:
Interesting article in the Salt Lake Tribune today 11/02/09: “Scientists Find patterns in Utah’s wet-dry cycles” http://www.sltrib.com/ci_13681950?IADID=Search-www.sltrib.com-www.sltrib.com
“They looked at data going back 1000 years, discovering a powerful relationship between sea-surface temperatures in a specific area of the Pacific Ocean [IPWP ?] and rainfall and snowfall in northern Utah.”
The article goes on to describe 2 other cycles, one a 40 year cycle and another a 150 year cycle. Then,all three cycles merged in the early 80s ,82-83, to create 2 perfect snow storm seasons. In the summer of 83, we had a river running down the main street (State Street) of SLC with small wooden bridges for cars to go over the water east and west. You could hear stones the size of baseballs rolling down the concrete. The writer just couldn’t manage to spit out any opinion as to the obvious connection of these patterns and AGW not being man made.
Animation of sub-surface anomalies for last month from European Center:
http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=fkqwt1&s=4
Looks like this El Nino is getting a late start and that it will be the strongest we’ve seen since 97/98. It will be interesting to see how high global temperatures get…
But Arctic ice keeps freezing up and outperforming the model forcast. The jump in SST is likely related to equatorial surface wind direction and the resultant El Nino. This is not a sign that the planet is warming up. It is a sign that the natural progress of El Nino and trade winds is working quite well.
http://arctic-roos.org/forecasting-services/topaz/topaz-model-forecast
Fred Nieuwenhuis: “What I don’t get is how the above NOAA SST Anomaly chart jives with their other SST anomaly products, especially in the NINO1&2 region where it doesn’t look as warm as the above map where it looks like NINO 1/2 is BLAZING HOT”
The map that Anthony provided is dated November 2. The NOAA links you provided I believe are based on weekly average data, centered on the previous Wednesday, but they also use pentads for some datasets, so there’s a little lag with that, too.
But EXCEL says the linear trend of NINO3.4 SST anomalies from January 1900 to August 2009 is fundamentally flat.
What’s the linear trend on your 1990-2009 graph?
Eyeballing, the 20 year trend looks negative.
Patrick, comment 1:
Yes, I can confirm it is bloody hot in Sydney today. A southerly change will come through tonight to cool things down. For the rest of the week, the temperature will be around 17-22 deg. C! (Who’d have thought we’d survive a 15-20 deg C change in a single day!)
No doubt, the papers will claim the high temps is due to MMGW and the cold will just be ignored.