In the past decade, since the release of the flawed 1998 study by Michael Mann, now known as MBH 98, the phrase “hockey stick” has been used to describe a certain shape of a graph. It has also become synonymous with poor data selection and bad statistical procedure.
Yet again and again we see climate studies pushing this hockey stick shape as a way of saying we are “living in the worst time period of the data”.
Here, without statistics, without bristlecone pines, inverted lake sediments, midge larvae carcasses, larch trees in Yamal, or convoluted never before seen statistical methods, I present a directly measured data set that produces a real “hockey stick” shape.
The data is directly measured and not a proxy, the plot is real. There’s no data adjustment or statistical manipulation. Care to know what it is?
From the website “Calculated Risk“
Here is the monthly Fannie Mae hockey stick graph …
Click on graph for larger image in new window.
Fannie Mae reported today that the rate of serious delinquencies – at least 90 days behind – for conventional loans in its single-family guarantee business increased to 4.45% in August, up from 4.17% in July – and up from 1.57% in August 2008.
“Includes seriously delinquent conventional single-family loans as a percent of the total number of conventional single-family loans. These rates are based on conventional single-family mortgage loans and exclude reverse mortgages and non-Fannie Mae mortgage securities held in our portfolio.”
Just more evidence of the growing delinquency problem, although these stats do include Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) loans in trial modifications.
Now that’s a hockey stick to be worried about.
It hardly is a surprise then that when we see that sort of graph of actual data in the American economy, we start to see graphs like this one depicting confidence in climate change as an important issue:
Source: Pew Poll, story here
(h/t to WUWT reader Michael)
Frederick Michael (20:15:10) :
“Wow. The mortgage crisis ain’t exactly over.”
Just wait until they discover the commercial property side of the mortgage crisis.
David (20:19:25) :
“Can’t buy a house (anymore) without any money.”
Sure you can, I’ve seen recently booked dual first second mortgages totaling the sale price. You just have to be very selective in who you approach for money and have at least a sale price that is under 80% of the appraised value.
We don’t even need to talk about the 3% down loans being offered by Frannie and Freddy (can you say, I see another bubble forming. I knew you could).
Look at these numbers. If you can’t think of a plausible scenario that resolves this, then you have to consider the possibility that it doesn’t get resolved.
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
The US GDP is up 3.5% in the 3rd quarter of 2009. Whoohoo!
er, what is 3.5% of zero?
Mike (20:27:37) :
“No, Frederick, it’s a long ways from over. Not quite as big as the when the Savings & Loans went belly up but, still, big. Sad thing is both financial messes were predictable and primarily caused by government.”
Exactly.Being a Realtor in the last ten years,I have seen it all,and I can say if the govn’t steps in they could screw up a ball bearing with a toothpick.The S&L debacle was worse,but somehow this is now even worse due to intervention.And the perps,
Barney Frank and Chris Dodd- and a few others need to spend some time in a Fed
lockup.
“Like Government?
Ask an Indian.”
Haven’t looked at the answer yet…. It’s either National Debt… or a chart detailing over the few years the rise in my alcohol consumption!!!
Haven’t looked at the answer yet…. It’s either National Debt… or a chart detailing over the few years the rise in my alcohol consumption!!!
BTW I love your blog!
I thought it was going to be a graph showing the use of the phrase “it’s worse than we thought” as derived from the Lexis-Nexis database.
Funny, ain’t it…our economic climate is 100% caused and controlled by man….and we get a hockey stick.
If we decided to use the CO2 cap & trade model to fix this, it’d mean that the people who still own home, along with the people who’ve lost theirs or have been renters will have to pay a tax on property they do or do not own to people in a developing country who own property of a lesser value? Somehow that’ll cure the problem?
Word has it from some insiders I know that foreclosures are going to jump around the 1st of the year, and the banks aren’t happy.
The graph is, of course, as yet incomplete. The chances are that this will peak out and return to lower levels in a year or so.
You might find a similar curve if you measured viable zygote frequency delivered in mission-critical activities associated with human conception.
Any chance that the same will happen to global temperature? After all, if you look at the graph in one other recent article here, you’ll see the descent into an ice age is usually preceded by hockey stick-style temperature increases….
DaveF (02:39:52) :
There used to be tar on Cornish beaches when I was a child, and it’s very rare now. Ships used to clean out their oil-tanks at sea in those days, a practice that has been largely stopped. There are no off-shore oil wells in this area. Could ships have been the reason for dirty Californian beaches in the past?
No. Or if ships cleaning their oil tanks was a factor, it was insignificant.
IIRC, more oil seeps out of the ground under the ocean every 5 years than was spilled by the Exxon Valdez accident, though some people still blame it on the oil spills of the 1969. This paper says the amount of oil seepage is much higher: http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es802586g
Google for <> turns up a lot of hits;
For example, the local Indian tribe, the Chumash, built tomolos (a canoe-like boat)) and water proofed them with a tar mixture.
From:
http://www.ehow.com/about_4565667_the-chumash-indians.html
“The tomolo constructed by the Chumash were held together by a mixture of tree sap and naturally-occurring tar asphalt which flows from underwater natural gas and oil leaks in the Santa Barbara channel.”
That should be Google “santa barbara” oil exxon chumash tomol
UK Sceptic (03:09:08) :
“We have a similar problem over the pond and a bunch of idiots in government who don’t have clue one what to do about it.”
That, sir, is a universal statement which applies to all governments.
As they used to say in Vaudeville:”You ain’t seen nothin’ yet” (long before BTO recorded it)
Yep. Some banks have been sitting on foreclosures and short sale for as long as 18 months. Not sure how you get around that via accounting trick, but if the climate can still be warming when it’s cooling, then anything is possible.
“Could ships have been the reason for dirty Californian beaches in the past?”
No. That tar predates oil fired shipping by hundreds of centuries.
Great point, Halfwise. Anyway, I think the folks with the computer models are fundamentally the same as Court Astrologers from the middle ages. In essence, their jobs are to use pseudoscience to tell the King what he wants to hear.
North of 43 south of 44 (06:25:37) :
Just wait until they discover the commercial property side of the mortgage crisis.
Last Sunday, Capmark Financial, one of the largest commercial lenders, declared bankruptcy.
“Tom in Texas (11:50:07) :”
And 9 US banks failed and were taken over on Saturday.
North of 43 south of 44 (06:25:37) :
Just wait until they discover the commercial property side of the mortgage crisis.
The commercial market – I’ve been harping on this overlooked detail for quite some time. It’s gonna get worse before it gets better.
M White (04:21:00) :
“Check out the graph here
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8332861.stm
UK house prices”
Extract from the BBC article.
“…Seema Shah, property economist at Capital Economics, said: “The upturn in house prices already appears to be losing momentum.
“With the housing market still overvalued, activity still at levels which would normally result in falling prices, and unemployment still rising, we expect house price falls to resume in 2010…”
By saving the banks, all governments around the world did was to provide a reprieve to stop the bubble bursting. This had the effect of deflating the bubble slightly, but it is now growing rapidly and governments can’t afford another bail-out when it starts to burst again.
i like hockey!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Ah, excuse me but if that graph is accurate the worst of the financial mess has yet to happen. Yikes, start stocking up on staples and other supplies while the getting is good.
Anthony it would be really interesting to see the details of the Mannian errant math and especially the program that he used to calculate the hokey, er, hokey stick. I understood that it will produce a hockey stick curve even with random data, is that correct? It would be fun to see that.
crosspatch (21:13:30) :
Spot on!
Can anyone recommend some good econ blogs/forums?
“Can anyone recommend some good econ blogs/forums?”
Try the articles section of the Seeking Alpha site–it has a preponderance of bearish members–including me. Here’s the link:
http://seekingalpha.com/articles
Amherst Mortgage had a paper out Sept. 23 indicating nationally 1.35% the yearly inventory of homes for sale is currently on track for foreclosure, i.e., accounting for those loans in trouble that will be eventually saved.
So homes are set to fall another 10-15% in value. This does not include a commercial property crash that will occur with numerous businesses and developers in trouble. Which, of course, is more trouble for insurers and re-insurers.
Bank failures next year will double those of this year. The FDIC is asking for 3 years of premiums from remaining banks rather than beg Congress for another advance beyond the 100 billion it got this year.
Your ride ain’t over.