Where are the Hurricanes Mr. Gore?

By Alan Caruba, Warning Signs

That god among men and Nobel Peace Prize winner, Al Gore, told us in “An Inconvenient Truth”, his Oscar-winning documentary, that we had to brace for increasing numbers of hurricanes as the result of global warming.

So, where are the hurricanes of 2009, Mr. Gore?

The hurricane season that runs from June through October is about to end with nothing more than one weak to borderline moderate tropical storm that hit Florida’s panhandle, but there have been NO hurricanes.

So, where are the hurricanes of 2009, Mr. Gore?

Trying to predict how many hurricanes there will be each year is probably fun, but is a highly risky undertaking. I have a lot of friends among the meteorological and climatological community, men of science, but I always cross my fingers for them when they take a run at it.

This year, Bill Gray of Colorado State, perhaps the best known among the hurricane forecasters, thought there would be at least 7 hurricanes of which 3 would be major. Weather Services Inc. agreed with Dr. Gray and, over at Accuweather, the prediction was for 8 hurricanes of which 2 would be major.

NOAA and the National Weather Service do not predict hurricanes, but as political as well as scientific entities they have a very bad track record of trying to confirm Al Gore’s global warming claims.

In March, William J. Broad, reporting in The New York Times, noted that Gore’s “scientific audience is uneasy” in the wake of his global warming documentary. “These scientists argue that some of Mr. Gore’s central points are exaggerated and erroneous. They are alarmed, some say, at what they call his alarmism.”

In Great Britain, a judge ruled that the documentary could not be shown in the schools unless teachers read a long list of its erroneous claims.

Since an increase in hurricanes was one of his dramatic claims along with rising sea levels and disappearing polar bears, Gore is batting zero these days. The sea levels have been rising a few inches every century for millennia and it is generally conceded that the polar bear population since the 1950s has been thriving.

In May, hurricane specialist Chris Landsea of the National Hurricane Center in Miami disputed theories that “global warming” has caused more hurricanes. His study was published in The Journal of Climate.

Landsea, like all meteorologists who haven’t been in a coma since the 1980s, knows that the Earth has been in a cooling cycle since 1998. Thus, the warmth that feeds hurricanes has diminished and is likely to stay that way for decades to come.

Landsea’s research showed that, since the mid-1990s, the average number of hurricanes per year had almost doubled what it was during the few prior decades, about on par with hurricane activity in the early 20th century. “It’s busy, yes, but not anything we haven’t seen before,” said Landsea while attending the Florida Governor’s Hurricane Conference in May.

For the non-scientist, that should confirm that hurricanes are governed by natural cycles, not some non-existent, dramatic increase called “global warming.”

Though what I know about hurricanes would fit comfortably in a bug’s ear, I am nonetheless tempted to suggest that the cooling cycle the Earth entered in 1998 may be a contributing factor to why this year’s hurricane season is, at this writing, minus any hurricanes.

So, where are the hurricanes of 2009, Mr. Gore?

Known as “the Gore factor”, it is the irony of blizzards or severe snow storms that seem to follow him around whenever he delivered one of his “global warming” speeches.

It is my profound prayer that, in December when the United Nations climate conference convenes to issue an international treaty based on the Great Global Warming Lie, that the city of Copenhagen gets hit by a blizzard so great that the delegates cannot leave their plush hotels for days.

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Gene Nemetz
October 23, 2009 9:56 pm

…that the city of Copenhagen gets hit by a blizzard…
Record cold would be wonderful also. Bavaria, south of Copenhagen, had record cold on tuesday : -24.3C, (-11.74 F).
http://www.thelocal.de/society/20091020-22693.html

Ron de Haan
October 23, 2009 10:04 pm

David Ball (21:01:01) :
“I cannot recall who made this comment a while back. They said “It is ok to make predictions, as long as they are not about the future “. Beautifully stated!! Wonder how Al’s” 5 years until the arctic is ice free” will stand up.”
David,
The most worrying prediction Al Gore has made is that the Senate will approve the Climate Bill and the Copenhagen Treaty.
We will know the answer within the next two months.

Gene Nemetz
October 23, 2009 10:17 pm

David Ball (21:01:01) :
“Never make predictions, especially about the future.”
Casey Stengel
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casey_Stengel
——————-
“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”
Yogi Berra
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yogi_Berra

October 23, 2009 10:18 pm

I am in full agreement with everything in this post, and think Gore is a charlatan.
However, I would suggest that in future you perhaps word a post like this slightly differently. Someone in the Phillippines, for example, might not appreciate the contention that there have been no deadly storms in 2009…
This is a blog with global reach these days and we rely on you guys for ammunition to fight the alarmists. Don’t make it harder for us!

Nikki
October 23, 2009 10:19 pm

You all will be pleased to know that the Danish weather service DMI has announced that October is on line to be the coldest in 12 years. I hope i have enough wood in the store for a long cold winter.

Ron de Haan
October 23, 2009 10:30 pm

Here is another prediction from Al Gore, just for the record:
A Prediction October 15, 2009 : 3:27 PM
“The Senate will pass a green jobs and climate bill before Copenhagen. This might go against what the pundits are saying, but I believe we are on the cusp of this remarkable achievement – however we all need to work our hardest to turn this prognostication into a reality. Now is the time to contact you member of the Senate and demand they support this legislation”.
http://blog.algore.com/2009/10/a_prediction.html
I am glad he made this prediction, not because I agree with it but because of Gore’s track record with earlier predictions.
Via http://www.algorelied.com
The first comments about this bill indicate that it will cause the loss of millions of American jobs, billions of dollars and little Green Jobs.

Gene Nemetz
October 23, 2009 10:31 pm

Mikkel (21:26:47) :
October is already far below the 1960 to 1991 average, and many omens points to a cold winter this year.

—————————————–
Mikkel,
Do you have links to this data? I am very interested.
Also, has there been many cold records broken there in October?

Gregg E.
October 23, 2009 10:51 pm

Gene Nemetz, record cold October? Look here. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/18/a-cold-start-to-fall-over-4500-new-snowfall-low-temp-and-lowest-max-temp-records-set-in-the-usa-this-last-week/
Heck yes it’s been a bloody cold October, 2009! Add another 1,000 record low maximum temperatures for the 17th through the 19th.
It will be very interesting to see the data for the full month. Would be nice if there was a way to get the record data for the full year in one shot from that Hamweather site.
If there’s been so much warming, how can there be so many thousands of temperature records in the USA being broken on the COLD side?

p.g.sharrow "PG"
October 23, 2009 11:00 pm

Do you suppose Gaia is upset with the gluttonous carbon using Al Gore and his carbon credit con men. 😉

Jean Meeus
October 23, 2009 11:03 pm

noaaprogrammer (21:30:18) :
Stormy wrote:
“Third, when the next hurricane “up cycle” converges with global warming and with the Mayan Doomsday calendar in the year 2102, you’ll be asking why so many hurricanes…”
“Will any of us be around in 2102?”
I thought that “the end of the world” was predicted for 2012, not 2102.

Ron de Haan
October 23, 2009 11:39 pm

This really sucks.
Copenhagen “back up” group meets this Saturday:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8323006.stm
“Legislators from 16 major economies will meet on Saturday to seek consensus on a raft of climate-related policies ahead of December talks in Copenhagen.
The 120 delegates believe that the policies could address 70% of the emissions cuts necessary before 2020.
A consensus, if reached, could ensure the policies are put into practice regardless of the outcome of the landmark climate talks in December”.
This means we get screwed regardless the outcome of the Copenhagen Meeting.
This also means that the 16 participating countries are committing a group suicide watched by the rest of the world.
We have to build new mental asylums to treat all these loons.

papertiger
October 24, 2009 12:12 am

Heck yes it’s been a bloody cold October, 2009! Add another 1,000 record low maximum temperatures for the 17th through the 19th.
Watch for Professor Hansen to drop the October and carry the September.
It’s the new GISS math.

SamG
October 24, 2009 12:14 am

Chances are they will change the goalposts and lead us to believe that cold temps, lack of hurricanes etc, are actually signs of AGW as well.
Astonishing contempt for humankind.

Mikkel
October 24, 2009 12:24 am

Gene Nemetz (22:31:56) :
“Mikkel,
Do you have links to this data? I am very interested.
Also, has there been many cold records broken there in October?”
————————–
Not anything in English, but maybe Google Translate can help you on this link: http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/kulden_bider_i_oktober
This link might be fun for you too, if you can figure it out. It is DMI’s weather archive: http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/index/danmark/vejrarkiv.htm
No records broken I think, as below zero temperatures can come quite early in Denmark. Some years as early as September.
After a long time with monthly averages above the norm, we are slowly starting to see months go below. Nothing spectacular yet, but I believe it will come soon.
The omens are just signs I picked up during many years spending countless days and nights outside in all seasons. Things like changes in flora growth season, certain types of weeds suppressing others in open fields, and similar things.
/Mikkel

DennisA
October 24, 2009 12:48 am

Ron de Haan: “Legislators from 16 major economies will meet on Saturday to seek consensus on a raft of climate-related policies ahead of December talks in Copenhagen.
As with increasing federalisation of the EU and the constantly expanding power of the un-elected EU Commission, these things go on behind closed doors. As with the first Irish referendum, it matters not if people object, they will think the right thoughts eventually. In the meantime just carry on with the project.
The Conferences are for public consumption, with the usual agonising of “will a deal be reached” and “after an agonising all-night sitting a communique was agreed”. These diversions occupy the Press whilst the real work is on-going by the billionaire financiers and their front men such as Gore and Stern, working in conjunction with the NGO field troops and the UN bureacracy.
The procedures are already in place viz:
http://www.globeinternational.org/content.php?id=1:0:0:0:0
“GLOBE facilitates high level negotiated policy positions from leading legislators from across the G8+5 parliaments and from regional dialogues, which are informed by business leaders and key international experts.
Internationally, GLOBE is focussed on progressive leadership from G8 leaders and the leaders of the major emerging economies as well as formal negotiations within the United Nations. GLOBE has a particular interest in the role that International Financial Institutions can play.
GLOBE shadows the formal G8 negotiations and allows legislators to work together outside the formal international negotiations. Without the burden of formal governmental negotiating positions, legislators have the freedom to push the boundaries of what can be politically achieved.
Carbon Disclosure Project: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/2947509/CO2-study-to-be-launched-today.html
Launched in 2006, by Al Gore and Lord Adair Turner, now Chairman of UK Climate Change Committee, The Carbon Disclosure Project, … is backed by 225 institutional investors speaking for $31,000bn in funds under management, … provides the clearest picture so far of the annual CO2 emissions of companies such as Ford, Google, Exxon Mobil and BP, and their strategies for reducing emissions.
http://cms.cdproject.net/cms_downloads/67_329_219_CDP-The-Carbon-Chasm.pdf
This is a foreword from the Chief Sustainability Officer at British Telecom:
“If we consider CO² emissions as a withdrawal from the Bank of Climate Stability then ever since the industrial revolution we have been increasing our climate debt.
The level of climate debt is now so high that we are on the verge of a climate
crunch, as large in scale as the onset of an ice age – but in the opposite direction.”
The Carbon Disclosure project is growing, the 31 trillion is now 57 trillion:
http://www.sustainablelifemedia.com/files/documents/advancesincarbonmanagement.pdf
For six years, companies globally have been reporting their carbon emissions data and climate change strategies to the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP), a collaboration of 385 investors, holding $57 trillion in assets under management.
Big, big money for the carbon traders and offsetters, but they need it enshrined in law and they won’t give up.

October 24, 2009 1:04 am

SST were rather high during the hurricane season 2009 and still no hurricanes. Ocean temperature is obviously only one of the ingredients necessary.

TonyS
October 24, 2009 1:23 am

What you call a blizzard in the US and what we call a blizzard here in Europe is something completely else: Many European countries, such as the UK, have a lower threshold [for the definition of a blizzard].
Well, we are lucky and have the alps, blocking any really nasty weather trying to move through our corner of the world.

Patrick Davis
October 24, 2009 1:27 am

“Stormy (20:39:24) :
Third, when the next hurricane “up cycle” converges with global warming and with the Mayan Doomsday calendar in the year 2102, you’ll be asking why so many hurricanes even though you know hurricanes and the 2012 are just coincedences. But global warming is not a coincedence.”
It’s 2012, and it isn’t a “doomsday calendar”, it’s just when the calendar ends. Simple as that and a common misconception.

October 24, 2009 2:07 am

The global ACE value is the lowest ever in 30 years. Please check it out at Roger Pielke Jr’s blog and his work in the area. The graph there is pretty astonishing; check the original at http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/climo.php
Ecotretas

Espen
October 24, 2009 2:53 am

Where I live in southern Norway, October has also been below normal so far, but Spitsbergen has hat a mild October:
http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/statistics.html

Tenuc
October 24, 2009 3:01 am

Juraj V. (01:04:02) :
“SST were rather high during the hurricane season 2009 and still no hurricanes. Ocean temperature is obviously only one of the ingredients necessary.”
I wonder if the Earth’s magnetic field has an effect?
The Earth’s total magnetic field is losing strength by about 5% per hundred years. However the strength of the magnetic field for the South Atlantic Anomaly is decreasing even faster at about ten times the standard rate. Perhaps we should be looking to find electro-magnetic influences regarding hurricane formation, not just SST’s.

Kate
October 24, 2009 3:26 am

Obama has already announced that he won’t be going to Copenhagen or signing any climate treaty or protocol. He has more pressing priorities.
The whole Copenhagen deal was killed off when China and India refused to go along with the carbon dioxide reduction commitments. There is some talk about another meeting elsewhere in July.

Patrick Davis
October 24, 2009 4:21 am

“So, where are the hurricanes of 2009, Mr. Gore?”
In computer models and on political agendas. Reality, OTOH, is totally different.

John Barrett
October 24, 2009 5:16 am

@Harold Vance (20:28)
Your dates seem to make sense. After all, we’ve all seen “Key Largo” with Bogart and Edward G and that was made in 1948 !

E.M.Smith
Editor
October 24, 2009 5:22 am

Didn’t we have a report go by that the atmosphere was a bit squashed down, thinner depth, due to the solar changes? Something like that… Well, hurricanes have a very significant vertical component. Squash that by 20 to 40% and it’s gonna do something. Compress the jet stream into a thinner band and I could see it chopping the tops of young hurricanes. And it would account for the odd “blustery” winds we get from time to time as the wobbles of jet stream to and frow…