There’s no guessing about these. They aren’t anemic sunspecks that may or may not have been visible a couple of centuries ago. They are the real deal. Sunspot group 1026 on the lower left edge and newly formed group 1027 above the equator. While a couple of spots aren’t yet enough to end the solar drought we’ve seen, they are encouraging.
All of the spots are about the size of the Earth. You may recall that group 1026 was first, ahem, “spotted” by the stereo behind system which we covered last week on WUWT. The two groups have the potential to produce some solar flares. Group 1026 produced a few B-Class solar flares, 1027 has been quiet. Here’s the SWPC report defining both regions:
:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2009 Sep 23 0031 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 266 Issued at 0030Z on 23 Sep 2009 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 22 Sep I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 22/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type 1026 S30E54 217 0030 Cso 09 02 Beta 1027 N24E32 239 0040 Dro 05 04 Beta IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 22/2400Z Sep Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 23 Sep to 25 Sep Nmbr Lat Lo None Source: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/SRS.txt
The 10.7 cm solar radio flux took a jump to 75 today, it may go higher as 1026/1027 continues to grow. It remains to be seen whether this is just a temporary energetic burst, with a lapse back to spotlessness, or if it heralds a new more active period of solar cycle 24.
:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2009 Sep 23 0031 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 266 Issued at 0030Z on 23 Sep 2009 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 22 Sep I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 22/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type 1026 S30E54 217 0030 Cso 09 02 Beta 1027 N24E32 239 0040 Dro 05 04 Beta IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 22/2400Z Sep Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 23 Sep to 25 Sep Nmbr Lat Lo None
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SOI to 15 via Warwick Hughes and http://www.longpaddock. Dunno about a SS ramp but La Nina’s done with ‘er powder.
“Bill, you know better than that… Statements like yours do not help educate the masses that may not have experienced a decent Science background. In fact, I believe it continues to prevent basic understanding of how our planet functions as a climate system.”
Whassup Bill, did ya tell a dirty limerick, wear Orange on St. Patty’s, what? Frankly, I don’t believe you’ve earned the dissin’.
Bill P (10:21:16) :
Look at the area in SWPC/NOAA: the smallest is 10 x 10E6
How many pixels on a SOHO MDI does that compute to?
The diameter of the Sun in pixels currently is 997-27=970.
Radius is 485.
Pi * R squared = 738981 pixels
So, 1 pixel is 1.35x10E6
7 pixels = 9.47x 10E6
SSN11026 = 30 pixels or 40.6x10E6
SSN11027 = 194 pixes or 262.5 x 10E6
That is without computing foreshortening.
So, if a Tiny Tim shows up with 1 pixel, do you now understand what the fuss is all about?
Praise the Lord.
Kum Dollison (09:55:20) :
From whence comes the High & Low Pressure Cells that the wind flows out of and into?
Is it not from uneven heating due to incidence of sunlight on the planet?
Philip T. Downman ‘Now we are waiting for Livingston and Penn measuring the magnetic field of those spots. One would expect 2000 Gauss or less?”
On another board, http://www.solarcylce24.com, Leif Svalgaard told us that Bill Livingston would have the use of the telescope on Saturday. So if 1026 or 1027 or both are still around this week-end, we may get some data.
Michael (09:11:39) :
Wrong, it’s made of aluminum.
Wrong again! It’s Aluminium! The British won that battle 😉
rbateman
Which of these two words did you not understand: lay man.
That was a joke. Nevermind.
These are temperature graphs, in wide use until mid 1990, also quoted by IPCC in their early publications.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/GraphA-B.jpg
Graph A was created by climatologist Hubert Lamb to represent the temperature variation of Central England over the last 1100 years. Graph B shows changes in regional temperature (Europe and eastern North America), compiled by R. S. Bradley and J. A. Eddy. Correlation between two graphs for period 1600 – 1900, is practically nonexistent, Rsq=0.042.
Graph A uses combination of thermometer readings for the last 300 or so years, and records of growing seasons before then to infer temperature. It was first published in 1965 and has been updated several times since. Notice that temperatures are on a sharp increase at 1650 just as Maunder Minimum started ? Was Lamb out by 50 years, and yet Thames froze 10-11 times during this period, out of about 25 during rest of 500 years (1400-1900). Graph B published in Earth Quest in 1991 is heavily biased by North American temperatures; was Jack Eddy personally biased towards Maunder Minimum?
Any expert opinions?
Every few months there is/are 1-2 average sunspots and everyone [snip]
The next upcoming dead season (no sunspots) will be even longer this time.
Ron de Haan (09:50:16) :
[snip off topic – solar not politics here]
Zo je kon het toch weer niet laten, he?
Solar wind is still quite weak: density 0.0 protons/cm3 at 1950 UT.
Is this abnormal?
“el gordo (01:27:02) :
As a layman its hard to fathom solar physics and the effect of solar minimum on our climate.
http://www.solen.info/solar/cycl3.html
In the northern hemisphere winter of 1779-80 the US suffered one of its worst winters on record. The two winters between 1783-86 saw the Thames freeze over and again in 1788-89 there was a Frost Fair on the river.
This all happened before the Dalton Minimum. Solar cycle 3 began in June 1775 with a smoothed sunspot number of 7.2 and ended in September 1784.”
While, of course, temperatures were trending rather dramatically down during that period, I think it’s worth noting that the particularly cold periods you cited (with the exception of the 1779-1780 winter in the US) were closely connected with the eruption of Laki in Iceland in 1783, which was (if I recall correctly) the second-largest volcanic eruption in recorded human history–only exceeded by an earlier eruption of the same volcano in 934, referred to as the Eldgjá eruptions. That eruption, combined with several others in the following years, released tremendous quantities of SO2 and volcanic ash, leading to the deathly cold volcanic winters you mention. Of course, the general chilliness of the time helped a good deal, too, but don’t forget Laki’s contribution!
Sorry for the repeat post, but I believe I made an error previously; the Eldgjá eruptions were the largest flood-basalt eruption in recorded human history, with Laki being second-largest. In terms of material ejected, they were easily beaten by several more violent, explosive eruptions. Still, though, the SO2 released was quite sufficient to have a climatic effect for a few years after those eruptions.
Progress of spots 1026/1027 and the White Light Facula:
running totals – measurement in 10E6
mm/dd/yy UT:xx Umbra Pen. WholeSpot SPOT#
09/21/09 19:12 0.73 058 059 1026
09/22/09 04:03 0.42 104 105
09/22/09 12:29 1.37 57.3 58.6
09/22/09 20:32 1.45 64.2 65.6
09/22/09 22:36 1.76 48.2 50.0
09/23/09 07:00 1.24 54.8 56.0
09/23/09 14:23 0.80 35.7 36.5
09/22/09 12:29 1.30 042 043 1027
09/22/09 20:32 5.63 075 086
09/22/09 22:36 5.29 118 123
09/23/09 07:00 4.76 171 176
09/23/09 14:23 4.83 146 151
Facula:
09/21/09 19:12 130
09/22/09 04?03 242
09/22/09 12:29 370
09/22/09 20:32 511
09/22/09 22:36 443
09/23/09 07:00 447
09/23/09 14:23 487
It looks like the spot in the southern half of the solar disk is starting to fade now, if the other sunspots start fading soon it would show the sun still isn’t producing sunspots that survive one entire solar rotation.
If the Sun goes blank again than it means an even longer wait for the sun to start producing sunspots on a regular basis.
Adam from Kansas (15:00:31) :
I haven’t done the foreshortening corrections for 1024 yet, but 1026 & 1027 are half of the umbra counts that 1024 was.
http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/SC24/SSN1024a.txt
Deep Solar Minimum is still in play until further progress of the Sun.
Nonoy Oplas (23:17:56)
Your understanding is correct.
Maybe Livingston & Penn can get a reading off the facula. My understanding of them is that it is very elusive. With the rather stark contrast presented on the SOHO MDI images of late, perhaps this is possible.
Does anyone out there concur with the brightness of the facula having increased substantially this time around?
Seen it before?
Mr. Alex (12:06:49) :
We may have won the aluminium debate but we lost on sulphuric/sulphur.
Is there a good read somewhere on the relationship between solar activity/wind/sunspots etc and climate? I am curious about the lag mentioned above.
Please shut up, all of you. Everything you say today is vain. Tomorrow a different truth will be accepted, and all the influence of your comments will be lost. Your are all pathetic and arrogant.
Reply: You’re skating on thin ice. Be polite. ~dbstealey, moderator.
Your comment is awaiting moderation
By this you really mean:
Your comment is awaiting censorship
Self righteous prick.
REPLY: Oh that’s funny! 🙂 Newsflash. Your experience isn’t unique in the slightest, all messages on moderated blogs get that, it is automatically generated by wordpress.com. About 100,000 people a day making comments on wordpress.com hosted websites get that message, and you are the very first to become irrationally enraged. Congratulations. – A
Pamela Gray (07:09:17) :
“Bill, you know better than that.”
If that was addressed to me and my comment about we don’t need another Little Ice Age, I guess I just meant we don’t need to have any cooling that a less active Sun might produce.
Generally, the Stefan Boltzmann equations show that the Sun would have to vary 5 or 6 times more than seems to occur to have an appreciable impact on our temperatures. Using the full equation as it was meant to be used says that the 1 watt change as occurs during the solar cycle results in only +/- 0.016C change in temperature. An extra 2 or 3 watts during a long solar downturn results in only -0.1C change.
Pete (20:17:49) : “…Everything you say today is vain. Tomorrow a different truth will be accepted…”
In that case, today I’d like to say that Pete is a genius whose ideas do not stink.